Finally, some tangible and meaningful games. Even as a hardcore NBA fan, I found it hard to care too much about how seeding played out that last week. Now, we can turn to what really matters…the playoffs. This year’s playoffs seem to be straightforward on the top of the food train. The more interesting questions come with who gives the favorites a run for their money. Indeed, some Western teams have a lot riding in demonstrating that they are on the right track by testing the Lakers. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the match ups:
Eastern Conference
1. Cavaliers v. Pistons: There is not a ton to say here. The Cavs are ascendant at precisely the moment the Pistons have run out of gas. Even when the Pistons were playing near their best in they had problems with LeBron James in the playoffs. James and a much weaker Cavs team took the Pistons to the brink in 2005-06 and upset Detroit in 2006-07. Now, the Pistons have little left, just average defensively and well below average offensively. Expect Detroit to be nothing more than a speed bump to the Cleveland Express. Looking for a bright side Piston fans? Detroit was first in the NBA in attendance this year. Prediction: Cavaliers win 4-0.
When they last met…As we reminded you above, the Pistons and Cavs met in 2006-07 in the Conference Finals. The Pistons were huge favorites but James took over and won Game 5 in Detroit by scoring 48 points. A weird fun fact about Cleveland-Detroit is that the franchises had never met in the playoffs prior to the LeBron match ups in 2005-06 and 2006-07. You would’ve thought they had a playoff match up in the 1980s when the Cavs were potential contender but it didn’t happen. This is, of course, because Cleveland kept losing to the Michael Jordan Bulls when Detroit was next.
2. Celtics v. Bulls: It really stinks that Boston won’t have its full squad to attack Orlando and Cleveland. Without Kevin Garnett, the Celts are not a great team. In the short term, they’ve somehow ended up playing really well without KG but we are quite skeptical that they can keep it up in the playoffs. Even with the injuries, the Celts are well-coaches and a very good defensive team. The Bulls are not a great match up for Boston. They have some good young players and a strong back court, that can potentially match Boston’s strengths. Derrick Rose isn’t a star yet but he could give Rajon Rondo a tough go. Similarly, John Salmons and Ben Gordon are not better than Paul Pierce and Ray Allen but they are good enough to annoy them. Ultimately, the Celts are bruising up front, have home court, and enough scorers to win this thing. Prediction: Celtics win 4-1.
When they last met…The last meeting of the Bulls and Celts came in the first round of the 1986-87 playoffs. This was not the famous series where the Jordan scored 63 points on Boston. Instead, the same teams met in first round the next season too with basically the same players. The Bulls were again swept by Boston, only this time without a legendary performance. If you are interested in incremental improvement, the 1985-86 Bulls were outscored by Boston by 41 over the 1985-86 series and only by 24 in 1986-87.
3. Magic v. 76ers: This not a great match up for Philadelphia. The 76ers remain a slower paced team that is more defensive in its orientation. This is exactly the style the Magic like to play, only they do it much better. The Sixers have some nice players in Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala but the Magic will have the luxury of packing in the paint and daring Philly to beat them from the outside. The Sixers can’t shoot the three at all (.318% as a team) and trying to drive on Dwight Howard is not a recipe for success. The Sixers are looking to hope from last year, where they looked like a poor match up for Detroit, another slow defensive team, and actually won a few games. Prediction: Magic win 4-1.
When they last met…Philly and Orlando only met once before. The year was 1998-99 and the Sixers were an improving team with Larry Brown and a young Allen Iverson matched up against an Orlando team that overachieved under Chuck Daly. The Magic went 33-17 despite the fact that their only star Penny Hardaway, was injured and in a serious decline. Daly put together a great defensive team by utilizing Darrell Armstrong, who scored quite well, and led the third best defense in the NBA. Come playoff time, the Magic’s lack of offense and athleticism killed them, as they lost 3-1 to Philly and didn’t break 91 points in a game. On the other end, AI averaged 33.3 ppg in the three wins and had 13 points in the only Sixers loss.
4. Hawks v. Heat: The most interesting first round game in the East seems like a toss up. Atlanta is a deeper team that has played Miami very well. Their bevy of big athletes do a better job on Dwyane Wade than most. On the other hand, it’s hard to bet against a healthy Wade in any playoff series. In crunching the numbers, neither team has any serious advantage. They both rebound, pass, and block at about the same rate. The lone advantage to identify is that the Hawks’ shoot and the defend the three better and the Heat have not defended behind the line very well. Despite these facts, I can’t help but think that Wade has played so well that he can have a dominant game in Atlanta and steal home court. The series is a tossup but we believe Wade tips the scales Miami’s way. Prediction: Heat win 4-2.
When they last met…The Heat and Hawks have met once previously. In 1993-94, the Hawks were an unlikely one seed behind Kevin Willis, Mookie Blaylock, and Dominique Wilkins. The Hawks traded the older Nique for Danny Manning and held onto the one seed (though Wilkins had played much better offensively than Manning). They met an eight seed Heat team with some nice young players (Steve Smith, Glen Rice, Grant Long, Rony Seikaly). Despite going 1-3 against the Hawks, Miami stole Game 1 in Atlanta and went up 2-1, including a memorable brawl where Long tried to strangle Duane Ferrell because Ferrell taunted him (pointed a finger right in Long’s face) after a score and he foul. The side match between Keith Askins and Doug Edwards was also one of the more substantive NBA fights I’ve seen (even though neither guy really played in the actual game). The Hawks came back form the brink and won the next two games by double digits.
Round 2 Predictions
-Cavaliers over Heat, 4-1
-Magic over Celtics, 4-1
Eastern Conference Finals
-Cavaliers over Magic, 4-2
Western Conference
1. Lakers v. Jazz: It was only last year that the Jazz gave the Lakers a tough run in the second round. This year, things are different. Well, the Lakers are pretty much the same, they’re still the class of the West. It’s the Jazz that are different. They can’t win any road games and Carlos Boozer is not the happy-go-lucky player he was in 2007-08. The Jazz are very good for an eight seed. With a little luck they’d be in the hunt but they can’t win on the road, can’t really stick Kobe, and they are outgunned in the front court, assuming Andrew Bynum is as healthy as he’s looked the last week. Sure, the Lakers have no answer for Deron Williams but the Jazz just have too many other questions. Prediction: Lakers win 4-1.
When they last met…Yes, just last year, when the Lakers won 4-2. Historically, the Lakers and Jazz are 2-2 against each other. The first meeting came in 1987-88 when a young Stockton and Malone took Magic Johnson seven games before losing in the second round. Stockton-Malone met up in back-to-back years with the Lakers in 1996-97 and 1997-98. This time the Lakers had Shaq and a young Kobe Bryant. The Jazz handled the Lakers handily both times. The 1996-97 series is best remembered for Del Harris giving a raw rookie Kobe to shoot in the fourth quarter and Kobe putting up multiple air balls. It was a little soon for Kobe at that point.
2. Nuggets v. Hornets: Like with Wade against the Hawks, we are faced with a case of the best player being on the team with less talent. In this case, however, Denver has some pretty good firepower at the point. As good as Chris Paul is, he’s going to have some problems defending Chauncey Billups in the post. Up front, the Hornets have no answer for Carmelo Anthony and I think Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris Andersen will be a problem for the Hornets front court. Paul could go crazy and win this series but it’s a tough road. Moreover, Denver is one of the better home teams in the NBA, which should be enough for Melo to get his first series victory. Prediction: Nuggets win 4-2.
When they last met…The teams have never met before, as the Hornets haven’t been in the Western Conference very long.
3. Spurs v. Mavericks: While everyone was down on the Mavs most of the year because of some questionable trades and the fact that they languished near the eight seed, they are still a good team playing some of their best ball. The Spurs, however, have no Manu Ginobili and there are questions whether Tim Duncan is near 100%. In terms of team strengths, the Mavs are nice scoring team with decent defense, while the Spurs are nice defensive team with decent offense. The teams are also chock full of mismatches: Duncan v. Erick Dampier, Dirk Nowitzki v. Michael Finley, et al, Tony Parker v. Jason Terry/Jason Kidd. If Ginobili were healthy, the Spurs would win in a tough series. Now, things are really tough for the Spurs. Still, the Mavs are far from invincible and we believe that a healthy Duncan is still the difference between the two team. Prediction: Spurs wins 4-3.
When they last met…The Mavs and Spurs had one of the best series of the 2000s in the 2006-07 second round. The Spurs ended up blowing a lead in Game 7 at home when Dirk Nowitzki dunked and was fouled by Ginobili (an absolutely boneheaded foul on a breakaway). I doubt this year’s series will be quite as a good but it definitely will be as competitive.
4. Blazers v. Rockets: This is an interesting series because we knew both teams would be good but not quite this good. No one knew that Brandon Roy would develop into a star or that the Rockets would continue to play so well without Tracy McGrady being Tracy McGrady. Portland is a very unique team. They were the slowest paced team in the NBA but had the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA (but were a decent 13th in defensive efficiency). The Rockets are also slow pace but are defensive based (4th in defensive efficiency and 15th in offensively). The Rockets don’t block shots much outside of Yao Ming but they have Ron Artest and a host of good defenders all of the court. As an aside, Rick Adelman doesn’t get enough credit for not only winning but coaching this team with a system that is counterintuitive to his preferred style of play.
In the end, the Blazers have a lot of factors in their favor:
-Both teams are great home teams but Portland has home court advantage.
-Portland has the players to match up with Yao in Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.
-If Yao doesn’t play great, it’s an open question whether Houston can score enough points to win the series.
Based on these facts, I think Portland takes a tough series and are now a year ahead of where we all expected on the rebuilding plan. Prediction: Portland wins 4-3.
When they last met…Despite the fact that both teams were regular playoff participants in the 1980s and 1990s, Portland and Houston did not often meet up. The last time they were matched up was in 1993-94, when Houston was a two seed with Hakeem Olajuwon. Portland was a declining seven seed, two years removed from the NBA Finals, being coached by Adelman. The Blazers still had Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Buck Williams, and Clifford Robinson but they were not quite as tough. Olajuwon smoked the Blazers and knocked them off 3-1. The Rockets went on to win the title and Portland promptly canned Adelman.
Round 2 Predictions
-Lakers over Blazers, 4-3
-Spurs over Nuggets, 4-2
Western Conference Finals
-Lakers over Spurs, 4-1
NBA Finals
-Cavaliers over Lakers, 4-2