1. The Race for Home Court: For better or for worse, the themes of NBA seasons tend to take shape very early and then we all have to wait until May/June two find out how the conflict will play out. Sure, there are fun little surprises that might matter for future seasons but, ultimately, question of title contention is less than mysterious. This year, for the most part, is no different. Let’s take our review of the title contenders we forecasted coming into the season (Boston, Detroit, and the Lakers) and where they are now:
–Boston Celtics: They were obviously a threat to repeat but our own analysis indicated to expect some regression from 2007-08. Well, the Celts haven’t looked too bad so far. In fact, they have pretty much the same point differential, are just as devastating defensively, and have improved offensively. So far, we’ve seen some decline from Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce offensively, offset by Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, who are playing much better than we expected. What can we expect going forward? With KG, the decline seems pretty natural. He’s still great but we are starting to some weaknesses in his game (apart from overall scoring, his plummeting free throw attempts and slight decline in rebounding are noteowthy). Garnett looks like more of a perimeter player now than he was before. This won’t be too much of a problem, as he is still a good offensively player and is still a defensive terror (his real best asset anyway).
Turning to Pierce, his decline looks like more of a hiccup. He’s pretty much the same player as last year, he just can’t shoot as well from inside the arc (FG% fell to .421% from .464% last year). Pierce’s true field goal percentage is still pretty good (.560%) but, assuming his is not injured, should creep up to his numbers of the last few years (.584% true FG% average over the last four years). Conversely, Allen’s improvement has come from shooting better than he ever has in his career (.494% from the field and .631 true FG%). Allen has never shot nearly so well from the field (outside of 2000-01) and his true shooting percentage is usually closer to the 57-58% range. The sense here is that Pierce’s likely improvement and Allen’s likely regression should average each other out for the team as a whole. It’s conceivable that both could continue on his path for this year or that only one changes course, most likely, I think you should see the same aggregate production from the two in 2008-09 equal where they were in 2007-08.
Finally, we have Rondo. He’s the only one outside of the Big Three who has changed appreciably as a Celtic this year. Rondo, in fact, has been playing at an All-Star level (12.9 ppg, .527 FG%, 5.8 rpg, 8.6 apg, 20.2 PER). Rondo’s improvement as a rebounder and passer seem pretty real but the question is whether the ridiculous shooting will continue. Rondo can’t shoot in the general sense. He shoots threes at a 26% rate and his free throw percentage is in the mid-60s. Nevertheless, Rondo shot well last year (.492 FG%) and is even better this year (.527%). Indeed, Rondo is mostly shooting in the lane and seems to know to stay away from his shaky jumper except for as a last resort. This actually follows Rondo’s college stats pretty well, where he was near 50% from the field (despite struggling in the areas we mentioned above). The only question is whether Rondo can keep shooting at the really great rate of 2008-09. My feeling is that point guards not named John Stockton can’t usually maintain a 52% pace from the fieldl. Rondo is a very good player but should regress a little bit.
Interestingly, I just finished reading Peter May’s book in the 2007-08 Celtics, “Top of the World”, which indicated that the Celts always have considered Rondo a potential star. In fact, May indicated that the Celts would never have traded for Kevin Garnett had the T-Wolves insisted that Rondo be part of the package (as they originally did): “As in the negotiations for Ray Allen, including Rondo in the deal was an absolute nonstarter. It’s hard to fathom that a point guard with one year’s experience in the NBA could be deemed so valuable as to threaten trades for both Allen and Garnett, two possible Hall of Famers, but that was precisely the case. [Owner Wyc] Grousbeck said the Celtics considered Rondo their starting point guard, which he would not likely be for Minnesota….’To give up our starting point guard for someone who would be a back up for you doesn’t make sense to us.’ Grousbeck told [Minny owner Glen] Taylor, ‘He’s worth more to us as a starter. We have to win now. We need him.’…Grousbeck then told Taylor that the deadline to get the deal done was 5 p.m. that night, with Rondo staying in Boston.”
I didn’t necessarily ever tab Rondo as a star and I’m not sure many others did either. In fact, I still don’t see a star, just an above-average starter. Of course, such a player is an asset, particularly when drafted later in the first round. So, you have to appreciate the Celts’ refusal to just give away such an asset. But still, if the negotiations for KG were as described in the book…are you kidding me? The T-Wolves are trading the best forward in the NBA to a a team that previously sucked and whose GM and coach were not exactly on solid ground and you’re telling me that Boston is the team setting the deadline? If Grousbeck told you that Rondo wasn’t going to start on your team, wouldn’t the proper retort to offer the Celts any of the other crappy guards that Minny already had that would allegedly be starting over Rondo? Hell, Boston needed Garnett to be relevant and the Wolves were only assuring crappiness in 2007-08 in trading Garnett (who did not demand a trade) no matter who they got. I’m pretty sure that the Wolves were holding the cards here. Again, maybe the negotiations were embellished by the Celtics in the book but something did not sound right there.
Getting back to the Celts of 2008-09, the recent winning streak hasn’t changed my opinions of their ultimate destiny. Barring injury an a great trade, they are going to be winning around 60 games and have as good a chance as anyone to win. I don’t think they will win but they are obviously quite close to the brass ring.
-Detroit Pistons: At the beginning of the season, I saw Detroit as a serious threat. A team that was younger and deeper than Boston and one tough series away from the Finals last year. The Pistons promptly blew that up pretty early by trading away Chauncey Billups and now the title hopes are over. The book is still open as to whether the trade gives Detroit a chance at improving itself in a way we didn’t anticipate but this trade is currently not in the positive side of the ledger for Detroit.
–Los Angeles Lakers: I considered the Lakers as the favorite coming into the year and they look like they are definitely in the discussions. They are third in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency and have the West’s best record. Yet, there is a sense that the Lakers are disappointing on some level and potentially weak defensively. Indeed, the Lakers five losses are of the odd variety: one home loss to the Pistons sans Billups and road losses to Miami, Orlando, Sacramento, and Indiana. Outside of Orlando (a very good team in its own right), you wouldn’t expect these types of losses from a title contender. There is a common pattern in most of the losses–getting destroyed by quick scoring guards:
-At home against Detroit, Iverson went for 25 and went to the line 12 times.
-At Indiana, the Pacers just had one of those crazy fourth quarters, outscoring L.A. 32-16. T.J. Ford had a very good game (21 points on 9-16 shooting and 8 assists) but this loss was an anomaly.
-At Sacramento, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia both had 21 points on nice shooting percentage, while Bobby Jackson had 15 points in 17 minutes.
-At Miami, Dwyane Wade was Dwayne Wade (35 points).
-At Orlando, Jameer Nelson led the team with 27 points, again, on great shooting.
So smaller penetrating guards are hurting the Lakers, though getting burned by AI, Wade, or the Magic aren’t exactly embarrassing happenings. Still, most Phil Jackson teams have had a problem because he loves to play bigger guards at the point for rebounding and low post defense reasons. Now with Jordan Farmar out, there is a vulnerability. Rumors indicate that the Lakers will bring in a minor tweak to fix this issue (i.e. Ty Lue). There has also been some talk of trading Lamar Odom because he’s not starting and not necessarily happy about it. But Odom is still quite a useful player and a good defender and shouldn’t be traded unless he materially upgrades the team (I don’t think Vince Carter qualifies in that regard). Either a tough big man a very good small guard are worth trading Odom but we’d have to see the options before recommending a trade in the abstract. Otherwise, the Lakers should stay the course and will probably make the Finals.
–The Field: One team I didn’t see make the leap to title territory was the Cavs. But, in fact, the Cavs look like the best team in the NBA. Yes, I thought the Cavs would improve but they are second in both offensive and defensive efficiency this year. There are have three factors causing this:
(1) LeBron James has actually improved: We know that young players tend to improve but how much room did LeBron have left to go? He did it the only place possible, by shooting even better. It is hard to overstate how good he is and how much better he makes this team. Yes, you can start mentioning him in Michael Jordan territory.
(2) Maurice Williams at the point: Williams hasn’t been incredible but he replaces such offensive zeroes that the incremental improvement is huge. Throw in that Delonte West has been shooting great and you have a nice efficient backcourt (that also doesn’t need the ball to get shots). Precisely, what a teams needs to complement a high scoring forward.
(3) Z-Man: The frontcourt has also improved. Anderson Varejao is playing better with a full training camp this year and J.J. Hickson is emerging as a real player (though Ben Wallace has regressed. Why is he turning the ball over at a higher rate than the guards?). At 33, Zydrunas Ilgauskas is playing the best of the group. His numbers are quite good but not too far off his usual numbers and, surprisingly, the extension he signed is looking great for this atter day Rik Smits (but with better rebounding).
On top of all this, the Cavs are dominating competition. While Boston was dominating during the winning streak, the Cavs were (and are) on an equally impressive run. Cleveland is 24-2 since starting out 1-2 and absolutely crushing opponents. If the team around him can continue to play well, LeBron James will be pretty much unstoppable in any playoff series.
Finally, outside of Cleveland, a few teams also look like they are on outskirts of contention:
-Orlando: Has a record only a few games off of the big boys. While they are clearly the third best team in the East, you have to wonder if they’ll score enough to beat Boston of Cleveland.
-Western Guys: Denver, New Orleans, Houston, and San Antonio are still in the mix to beat the Lakers but each team has serious enough holes that you have to wonder if they can beat the Lakers.
2. Birdman: One of the nicer quite stories of the year is the return of Chris Andersen to Denver. Andersen was suspended for failing a drug test in 2005-06 and was reinstated into the NBA in late 2007-08 and played about 30 minutes for the Hornets at the end of the regular season. Andersen, now 30, was signed by the Nuggets last off-season. Andersen was never a star but he has been surprisingly good and not really losing a beat off his career numbers. Check Andersen’s year so far with his 2005-06 numbers:
2005-06: 17.8 mpg, 5.0 ppg, .571 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 0.2 apg, 1.3 bpg, 14.1 PER
2008-09: 17.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .488 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 0.5 apg, 2.2 bpg, 17.7 PER
Andersen has retained his athleticism and is pretty much the same player he was before he left. This got me wondering how long suspensions have affected players. Do the missing years have any affect on the player’s ability? Or can we just plug in the missing years in a computer simulator and the gaps seem logical (as they do with Andersen)? We really don’t know the answer but let’s take a look of any examples we might have and see how it turned out. Unfortunately, I can’t seem to find a master list of such players but here’s what we found:
–Roy Tarpley: He was banned for multiple drug offenses in early 1990-91 when he was 26 and came back to the Mavs in 1994-95. He was actually very good when he came back. Tarpley never really played a full year after age-23 (1987-88) and last quasi-full season in 1989-90, he put up 16.6 pts, .451 FG%, 12.9 rebs, 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes and in 1994-95 he was at 18.4 pts, 11.9 rebs, 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes (PER was both at about 18 PER each year). Tarpley was rewarded with a big contract (six years and $26 million) but failed a third test for alcohol in 15 months and was suspended and never played in the NBA again.
–Mitchell Wiggins: Suspended during the 1986-87 season, while scoring 11.1 ppg and ,437 FG% in 24.6 mpg. He returned to Houston in 1989-90 at age 30 and played better (15.5 ppg, .488 FG% in 28.1 mpg). He was bounced out of the NBA again after that season (I believe for a failed drug test but cannot confirm that) and got a cameo again in 1991-92 with Philadelphia, where he was just a bit player (4.3 ppg, .384 FG% in 11.6 mpg) before he returned to playing ball overseas.
–Richard Dumas: Had drug problems in college but made it into the NBA in 1992-93, where he scored very well (15.8 ppg in 27.5 mpg). He failed a drug test late in the season that got him banned in 1993-94 and most of 1994-95. In 1995-96, John Lucas gave him a shot on his team in Philly. Dumas didn’t have much left at that point (even though he was only 26) and he was bounced out of the NBA for good.
–Lewis Lloyd: A member of the Rockets’ team with a bunch of guys who were suspended. Lloyd was suspended at about the same time as Wiggins in 1987 and returned to the Rockets in 1989-90. Unlike Wiggins, Lloyd barely played upon his return (19 games and 6 mpg). He played two more games with the Sixers that year and was done as NBA player.
So, are brief review doesn’t tell us much at this point. Some could still play when they returned from drug suspensions but most of them were not able to stay on the straight and narrow. Of course, Tarpley was in a different category (his suspension is the subject of a current federal litigation, which we’ll examine at another point). In any event, we’ll be rooting for Andersen both professionally and personally.