One of the happenings from the first week of the NBA season was the execrable debut of LaMelo Ball (0-5 from the field and no points). The NBA web is in a tizzy about Ball noting that he “looked lost” and, ergo, he is possibly a pending bust. That sounds pretty rash but Ball’s goose egg did get me wondering about rookie debuts. Was LaMelo’s performance the worst debut of a top 3 lottery pick? How often do top picks have scoreless debuts? What, if anything, can we learn from a crappy debut of a top rookie?
Before doing any research, my gut told me the obvious….a bad debut is the smallest of sample sizes, namely one game from a very young player. I thought we could run through the rookie debuts of all 104 top 3 picks since the lottery was instituted in 1985 to see if we could get a little more context. (Yup, not 105 debuts. The even number is another sad reminder that Len Bias never played an NBA game). Here’s what we found:
-LaMelo’s debut was pretty bad, even by the low standards of rookie debuts. Ball put up a -2.9 game score (as a quick aside, the breakdown for game score, invented by the great John Hollinger, can be found here). Only two top three picks had lower game scores than Ball…Yao Ming and Greg Oden, both of whom played even fewer minutes than Ball. Ben Gordon had virtually the same stat line as LaMelo in his debut (Gordon was able to score three points from the line but, otherwise, had the same production in the same amount of minutes played).
-In fact, 15 players had negative game score debuts and three more put up robust 0.0 scores. A negative first game is not a death knell for an NBA career. Yao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, and D’Angelo Russell all eventually became All-Stars (Yao and Chandler barely played in their first games). There are more busts, however, than stars on this list: Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic (played one minute!), Michael Beasley, Anthony Bennett, and Danny Ferry. On the other hand, there are plenty of adequate-to-good players too: Gordon, Otto Porter, Keith Van Horn, O.J. Mayo.
-Cameo debuts: Darko and Mike Dunleavy each played only one minute in their debuts. Darko did grab a couple boards before being sent back to into the deep bench.
-Negative game scores in debuts were exceedingly rare for top picks last century. There were only two: Danny Ferry and Keith Van Horn. Since then, there have been 13.
-LaMelo’s brother Lonzo, had a bad debut too (1-6 in 29 minutes) but it was several orders better than LaMelo’s. Lonzo was able grab 9 boards and put up 4 assists (and make a shot!).
-Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman scored pretty well in their debuts. Admittedly, the stats are reviewed devoid of context (Wiseman’s numbers feel a bit empty since his team lost by 30+ and was never competitive with Brooklyn).
-2020 has been such a long year that I completely forgot that RJ Barrett had a really solid debut.
-The best debut by subsequent disappointment has to be Jahlil Okafor, who had 26 points and 7 boards and shot well. Incidentally, Emeka Okafor logged a higher game score (19.1 to 16.0).
-A strong debut game is really good indicator of future success. Seven top three rookie picks have had a game score of 20.0 or higher and they are all really good. In fact six of them are either in the Hall of Fame or have a pretty good shot: Anthony Davis, Grant Hill, Blake Griffin, Allen Iverson, David Robinson, and LeBron James. The seventh is Deandre Ayton, so stay tuned on him. The highest games score for a top three rookie on the list goes to LBJ, who notched 25 points, 6 boards, and 9 assists right out of high school. Iverson was very good too (30 points) and David Robinson was basically an MVP candidate from his first game (23 points, 17 boards, 3 blocks).
-Stars with blah(ish) debuts: Shaquille O’Neal grabbed 18 boards (the most for anyone on the list) but scored only 12 points. That stat line is more Charles Oakley than Shaq. Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard also had low double-doubles.
-While game score is a good shorthand for a player’s worth, it doesn’t totally capture all things. LaMelo shot poorly but what about the guys who were chuckers who churned and burned on high volume? Of the score-first types, Kyrie Irving was 2-12, Mike Bibby was 3-14, Carmelo Anthony was 4-15, and Kevin Durant was 7-22. Oddly, Shawn Bradley (2-12) and Kenyon Martin (4-16) shot way too much for their scoring ability. But the player who probably had the worst debut in terms of misses on high volume, has to be Mayo. He played 40 minutes and shot a gross 5-20 from the field. Others top rookies have shot worse but not on such volume. That’s impressive confidence.
-Turning back to LaMelo, one bad game is nothing to be worried about. He may have shot terribly and done very little but there is a decent amount of evidence that it’ll be a blip on the radar. LaMelo need only turn to Luka Doncic’s underwhelming debut in 2018 (10 points, 5-16 shooting, 0.8 GmSc).
I have pasted the raw data on the debut game below in case anyone wants to see the nitty gritty details or was just wondering how Andrea Bargnani compares to Benoit Benjamin…
-10/30/02, Yao Ming, 11 min, 0 pts, 0-1 (.000%), 2 rebs, -3.3 GmSc
-10/28/08, Greg Oden, 13 min 0 pts, 0-4 (.000%), 5 rebs, -3.0 GmSc
-12/23/20, LaMelo Ball, 16 min, 0 pts, 0-5 (.000%), 3 asts, -2.9 GmSc
-11/5/04, Ben Gordon, 16 min, 3 pts, 0-6 (.000%), 0 rebs, -2.6 GmSc
-10/28/09, Hasheem Thabeet, 12 min, 0 pts, 0-2 (.000%), 2 rebs, -2.4 GmSc
-12/6/13, Otto Porter, 14 min, 0 pts, 0-3 (.000%), 2 rebs, -2.2 GmSc
-11/1/01, Pau Gasol, 17 min, 4 pts, 2-5 (.400%), 4 rebs, -2.1 GmSc
-10/29/03, Darko Milicic, 1 min, 0 pts, 0-0 (.000%), 2 rebs, -1.8 GmSc
-10/31/01, Tyson Chandler, 6 min, 1 pt, 0-2 (.000%), 0 rebs, -1.8 GmSc
-10/28/15, D’Angelo Russell, 26 min, 4 pts, 2-7 (.286%), 3 rebs, -1.2 GmSc
-10/29/08, Michael Beasley, 27 min, 9 pts, 4-14 (.286%), 4 rebs, -1.0 GmSc
-10/30/13, Anthony Bennett, 15 min, 2 pts, 0-5 (.000%), 5 rebs, -0.8 GmSc
-11/2/90, Danny Ferry, 16 min, 5 pts, 2-10 (.200%), 5 rebs, -0.7 GmSc
-12/5/97, Keith Van Horn, 27 min, 11 pts, 4-10 (.400%), 2 rebs, -0.4 GmSc
-10/29/08, O.J. Mayo, 40 min, 10 pts, 5-20 (.250%), 5 rebs, -0.1 GmSc
-10/29/02, Mike Dunleavy, 1 min, 0 pts, 0-0 (.000%), 0 rebs, 0.0 GmSc
-10/31/00, Stromile Swift, 9 min, 0 pts, 0-1 (.000%), 1 reb, 0.0 GmSc
-11/5/94, Glenn Robinson, 13 min, 8 pts, 3-5 (.600%), 4 rebs, 0.3 GmSc
-11/1/06, Andrea Bargnani, 9 min, 2 pts, 1-3 (.333%), 2 rebs, 0.5 GmSc
-11/9/91, Kenny Anderson, 24 min, 7 pts, 3-10 (.300%), 3 asts, 0.6 GmSc
-10/17/18, Luka Doncic, 32 min, 10 pts, 5-16 (.313%), 8 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 GmSc
-10/25/85, Benoit Benjamin, 6 min, 3 pts, 1-2 (.500%), 4 rebs, 1.3 GmSc
-11/2/12, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 19 min, 2 pts, 1-7 (.143%) 7 rebs, 1.5 GmSc
-10/26/85, Wayman Tisdale, 19 min, 9 pts, 4-8 (.500%), 6 rebs, 1.6 GmSc
-10/30/01, Kwame Brown, 12 min, 2 pts, 1-2 (.500%), 3 rebs, 3 blks, 1.8 GmSc
-11/1/96, Marcus Camby, 15 min, 5 pts, 2-5 (.400%), 4 reb, 2.4 GmSc
-10/19/17, Lonzo Ball, 29 min, 3 pts, 1-6 (.167%), 9 rebs, 4 asts, 3.2 GmSc
-10/29/14, Andrew Wiggins, 18 min, 6 pts, 2-5 (.400%), 3 rebs, 3.3 GmSc
-11/14/89, Pervis Ellison, 13 min, 6 pts, 2-4 (.500%), 2 rebs, 3.4 GmSc
-12/26/11, Kyrie Irving, 26 min, 6 pts, 2-12 (.167%), 7 asts, 3.4 GmSc
-11/5/93, Shawn Bradley, 29 min, 6 pts, 2-12 (.167%), 5 rebs, 8 blks, 3.6 GmSc
-10/31/00, Kenyon Martin, 30 min, 10 pts, 4-16 (.250%), 7 rebs, 3.6 GmSc
-10/29/03, Carmelo Anthony, 29 min, 12 pts, 4-15 (.267%), 7 rebs, 3.7 GmSc
-10/28/09, James Harden, 13 min, 5 pts, 2-2 (1.000%), 2 rebs, 3.8 GmSc
-11/3/95, Antonio McDyess, 21 min, 10 pts, 5-9 (.556%), 3 rebs, 3.9 GmSc
-10/17/18, Marvin Bagley, 12 min, 6 pts, 3-6 (.500%), 5 rebs, 4.1 GmSc
-11/5/91, Billy Owens, 18 min, 7 pts, 3-4 (.750%), 4 rebs, 4.3 GmSc
-12/27/11, Enes Kanter, 20 min, 5 pts, 1-7 (.143%), 11 rebs, 4.5 GmSc
-11/13/92, Alonzo Mourning, 19 min, 12 pts, 4-10 (.400%), 3 rebs, 4.6 GmSc
-11/6/92, Christian Laettner, 30 min, 8 pts, 4-11 (.364%), 7 rebs, 4.7 GmSc
-10/31/86, Chris Washburn, 19 min, 7 pts, 3-4 (.750%), 5 rebs, 4.7 GmSc
-10/30/12, Bradley Beal, 21 min, 8 pts, 2-8 (.250%), 3 rebs, 4.8 GmSc
-10/29/13, Victor Oladipo, 22 min, 12 pts, 4-11 (.364%), 3 rebs, 5.0 GmSc
-10/23/19, Ja Morant, 25 min, 14 pts, 6-12 (.500%), 4 ass, 5.3 GmSc
-1029/14, Jabari Parker, 37 min, 8 pts, 3-9 (.333%), 4 rebs, 5.4 GmSc
-11/1/06, Adam Morrison, 32 min, 14 pts, 5-13 (.385%), 3 rebs, 6.0 GmSc
-10/18/17, Markelle Fultz, 18 min, 10 pts, 5-9 (.556%), 3 rebs, 6.0 GmSc
-11/1/86, Brad Daugherty, 37 min, 8 pts, 3-8 (.375), 13 rebs, 6 asts, 6.3 GmSc
-10/26/16, Brandon Ingram, 24 min, 9 pts, 4-6 (.667%), 3 rebs, 6.3 GmSc
-10/31/00, Darius Miles, 34 min, 8 pts, 4-6 (.667%), 7 rebs, 6.3 GmSc
-12/26/11, Derrick Williams, 24 min, 13 pts, 6-14 (.429%), 6 rebs, 6.3 GmSc
-11/4/88, Rik Smits,13 min, 6 pts, 1-2 (.500%), 3 rebs, 3 blks, 7.0 GmSc
-11/2/99, Baron Davis, 25 min, 9 pts, 3-6 (.500%), 5 rebs, 7.1 GmSc
-10/31/07, Kevin Durant, 31 min, 18 pts, 7-22 (.318%), 5 rebs, 7.3 GmSc
-11/12/88, Danny Manning, 27 min, 12 pts, 6-10 (.600%), 4 rebs, 7.5 GmSc
-10/27/10, Derrick Favors, 20 min, 8 pts, 3-5 (.600%), 10 rebs, 7.7 GmSc
-2/7/99, Mike Bibby, 36 min, 11 pts, 3-14 (.214%), 9 asts, 7.8 GmSc
-10/28/10, John Wall, 35 min, 14 pts, 6-19 (.316%), 9 asts, 8.1 GmSc
-11/6/92, Shaquille O’Neal, 32 min, 12 pts, 4-8 (.500%), 18 rebs, 3 blks, 8.3 GmSc
-11/6/87, Armen Gilliam, 39 min, 14 pts, 5-12 (.417%), 9 rebs, 8.6 GmSc
-2/5/99, Raef LaFrentz, 25 min, 11 pts, 4-7 (.571%), 7 rebs, 8.6 GmSc
-10/2616, Joel Embiid, 22 min, 20 pts, 6-16 (.375%), 7 rebs, 8.7 GmSc
-10/26/85, Patrick Ewing, 44 min, 18 pts, 8-21 (.381%), 6 rebs, 8.9 GmSc
-11/3/90, Gary Payton, 31 min, 10 pts, 4-11 (.364%), 6 rebs, 6 asts, 8.9 GmSc
-10/26/16, Jaylen Brown, 19 min, 9 pts, 3-4 (.750%), 2 rebs, 9.3 GmSc
-2/5/99, Michael Olowokandi, 21 min, 5-9 (.556%), 6 rebs, 9.4 GmSc
-11/3/06, LaMarcus Aldridge, 19 min, 5-9 (556%), 8 rebs, 9.7 GmSc
-11/2/07, Al Horford, 23 min, 9 pts, 3-4 (.750%), 10 rebs, 9.8 GmSc
-10/28/15, Karl-Anthony Towns, 32 min, 14 pts, 6-10 (.600%), 12 rebs, 9.9 GmSc
-11/2/90, Derrick Coleman, 25 min, 11 pts, 5-13 (.385%), 12 rebs, 10.4 GmSc
-11/2/05, Marvin Williams, 25 min, 12 pts, 5-10 (.500%), 6 rebs, 10.4 GmSc
-11/2/99, Steve Francis, 38 min, 14 pts, 4-13 (.308%), 6 rebs, 10.5 GmSc
-11/3/95, Joe Smith, 26 min, 14 pts, 5-12 (.417%), 3 rebs, 10.6 GmSc
-11/4/89, Sean Elliott, 31 min, 16 pts, 4-10 (.400%), 5 rebs, 10.8 GmSc
-10/31/97 Chauncey Billups, 17 min, 15 pts, 6-12 (.500%), 4 asts, 11.0 GmSc
-11/1/91, Larry Johnson, 26 min, 14 pts, 4-8 (.500%), 3 rebs, 11.1 GmSc
-10/28/08, Derrick Rose, 32 min, 11 pts, 3-9 (.333%), 9 asts, 11.2 GmSc
-11/6/87, Dennis Hopson, 38 min, 16 pts, 6-15 (.400%), 4 asts, 11.2 GmSc
-11/4/88, Charles Smith, 25 min, 15 pts, 6-7 (.857%), 7 rebs, 11.4 GmSc
-11/3/99, Elton Brand, 35 min, 14 pts, 3-11 (.273%), 8 rebs, 11.4 GmSc
-10/17/17, Jayson Tatum, 36 min, 14 pts, 5-12 (.417%), 10 rebs, 11.7 GmSc
-10/31/97, Tim Duncan, 35 min, 15 pts, 6-9 (.667%), 10 rebs, 11.7 GmSc
-12/23/20, Anthony Edwards, 25 min, 15 pts, 5-12 (.417%), 4 rebs, 12.0 GmSc
-11/2/05, Deron Williams, 26 min, 18 pts, 7-14 (.500%), 3 asts, 12.2 GmSc
-11/5/94, Jason Kidd, 35 min, 10 pts, 3-10 (.300%), 9 rebs, 11 asts, 12.6 GmSc
-10/30/02, Jay Williams, 33 min, 13 pts, 6-9 (.667%), 7 asts, 12.7 GmSc
-11/1/96, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, 35 min, 16 pts, 6-14 (.429%), 5 rebs, 12.8 GmSc
-12/22/20, James Wiseman, 24 min, 19 pts, 7-13 (.538%), 6 rebs, 13.5 GmSc
-11/3/04, Dwight Howard, 38 min, 12 pts, 6-11 (.545%), 10 rebs, 4 bks, 13.5 GmSc
-11/1/05, Andrew Bogut, 37 min, 13 pts, 6-9 (.667%), 9 rebs, 3 blks, 13.6 GmSc
-11/5/93, Anfernee Hardaway, 36 min, 12 pts, 6-13 (.462%), 8 rebs, 8 asts, 14.0 GmSc
-10/27/10, Evan Turner, 31 min, 16 pts, 7-10 (.700%), 7 rebs, 14.6 GmSc
-11/10/90, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, 25 min, 26 pts, 12-19 (.632%), 6 asts, 15.0 GmSc
-11/9/93, Chris Webber, 34 min, 15 pts, 5-12 (.417%), 7 rebs, 15.0 GmSc
-10/23/19, RJ Barrett, 37 min, 21 pts, 9-13 (.692%), 5 rebs, 15.4 GmSc
-11/3/95, Jerry Stackhouse, 37 min, 27 pts, 11-18 (.611%), 1 reb, 15.7 GmSc
-10/28/15, Jahlil Okafor, 38 min, 26 pts, 10-16 (.625%), 7 rebs, 16.0 GmSc
-1/22/20, Zion Williamson, 18 min, 22 pts, 8-11 (.727%), 7 rebs, 16.3 GmSc
-10/18/17, Ben Simmons, 35 min, 18 pts, 7-14 (.500%), 10 rebs, 5 asts, 18.4 GmSc
-11/4/04, Emeka Okafor, 32 min, 19 pts, 5-9 (.556%), 10 rebs, 19.1 GmSc
-10/31/12, Anthony Davis, 29 min, 21 pts, 6-12 (.500%), 7 rebs, 20.0 GmSc
-11/4/94, Grant Hill, 38 min, 25 pts, 8-19 (.421%), 10 rebs, 5 asts, 20.1 GmSc
-10/27/10, Blake Griffin, 38 min, 20 pts, 8-14 (.571%), 14 rebs, 20.6 GmSc
-10/17/18, Deandre Ayton, 36 min, 18 pts, 8-11 (.727%), 10 rebs, 6 asts, 22.0 GmSc
-11/1/96, Allen Iverson, 37 min, 30 pts. 12-19 (.632%), 6 asts, 22.3 GmSc
-11/4/89, David Robinson, 34 min, 23 pts, 6-11 (.545%), 17 rebs, 3 blks, 23.2 GmSc
-10/29/03, LeBron James, 43 min, 25 pts, 12-20 (.600%), 6 rebs, 9 asts, 24.7 GmSc