With another season fast approaching, we are reminded that most teams enter the season with optimism about their chances to have a successful season, if not necessarily win a title. Sometimes the optimism comes from good planning and other times from pipe dreams. I was wondering what was the most objectively optimistic time for each franchise entering a season.
To that end, I thought a nice objective measure of legitimate optimism would be pre-season odds to win a title. SportsOddsHistory has kept track of pre-season title odds since 1984-85. Here are each franchise’s best pre-season odds during that time:
Boston 1986-87 (+160): Coming off, arguably, the best season in franchise history, Boston was the heavy favorite to repeat. They nearly did so, even though they had a grueling gauntlet in the Eastern Conference playoffs. After squeaking by Milwaukee and Detroit, Boston ran out of steam and lost to the Lakers in the Finals 4-2.
New York 1993-94 (+200): New York looked like they had a clear path to a title with Michael Jordan’s abrupt retirement. The Knicks came very close to that title but lost a tight seven-game series to the Rockets in the Finals.
Brooklyn 2021-22 (+240): Man, 2021 training camp feels like 100 years ago in Brooklyn. We won’t rehash that debacle again but suffice it to say things were messy and the Nets ended up getting swept in the First Round by Boston.
Philadelphia 1984-85 (+250): Despite getting upset by the Nets in 1983-84, the 76ers were held in high esteem by Vegas. The team was still filled with established stars (Julius Erving, Andrew Toney, Maurice Cheeks, Bobby Jones, and Moses Malone) and was adding a rookie Charles Barkley. They were really good in the regular season (58-24) and made the Eastern Conference Finals but were dispatched easily by Boston 4-1.
Washington 1986-87 (+1300): What passes for optimism in DC is different. Here, Vegas gave moderately long odds for a title to a team that had gone 39-43 and replaced Jeff Ruland with a near-peak Moses Malone. Mo’s presence improved the team to 42-40 and they were swept by Detroit in the First Round.
Orlando 1995-96 (+400): This was the theoretical peak of the Penny-Shaq Magic that had just eliminated the MJ Bulls. Vegas still had the Bulls a slight favorite (+350) over Orlando. The Magic did win 60 games but were swept in the Eastern Conference Finals by the Bulls.
Miami 2010-11 (+175): Yes, we all remember LeBron James promising to win four straight titles at his opening press conference after signing with Miami in 2010. Vegas was pretty optimistic as well. We also all remember, however, that Dirk and the Mavs spoiled the plan by beating Miami in the Finals that season.
Atlanta 1987-88 (+500): There were many who thought that Atlanta, and not Detroit, would ultimately knock off the Larry Bird Celtics. Atlanta was pretty good (50-32) and lost an epic seven-game series in the Second Round against the Celtics.
Charlotte 1994-95 (+1000): The hopes in Charlotte have been really dim for the past 20 years or so but there were good vibes around the team built around young Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning. Charlotte went 50-32 and had the best SRS in franchise history. They had the misfortune of drawing the Bulls right after Jordan had unretired. The Bulls won the series 3-1 and Zo forced a trade a few months later.
Chicago 1996-97 (+100): They had just won 72 games and dominated the playoffs, so they were naturally heavy favorites to repeat, which they did without much difficulty.
Cleveland 2014-15 (+275): LeBron had just returned to Cleveland to deliver the title he had promised the local fans. They did make the NBA Finals but lost to the recently emergent Splash Brothers Warriors.
Detroit 1989-90 (+300): The Bad Boy Pistons had won a title in 1988-89 and looked like strong favorites to repeat, which they did.
Indiana 1998-99 (+450): The Pacers seemed like the best team in the East (they nearly upset the Bulls the prior season) but crapped out against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, in part due that questionable four-point play by LJ.
Milwaukee 2019-20 & 2020-21 (+550): The peak Giannis Bucks probably would’ve won a title in 2019-20 had Covid not popped up and changed everything. Instead, they were upset by Miami in the Second Round of the surreal Bubble playoffs. They probably should’ve lost to the Nets in the 2020-21 playoffs but, their luck swung the other way, and they just beat an injured Nets team and won a title a few weeks later.
Toronto 2001-02 (+1500): The Raptors’ best odds followed Vince Carter’s peak year in 2000-01. VC struggled with injury and the Raps were a low seed in 2001-02, where they lost in the First Round to Detroit. In case you are wondering, the 2018-19 title team had odds of +1850 because Vegas was so sure the Warriors would repeat again.
Dallas 2005-06 (+400): Sometimes we forget just how consistently good the Dirk Nowitzki Mavs were in the 2000s. The 2005-06 team knocked off a 49-win Grizzlies team in the First Round, the Duncan Spurs in the Second Round, and the Nash/Stoudemire Suns in the Conference Finals before losing to the Heat in the Finals.
Denver 2023-24 (+450): This one isn’t too hard to recall, as it was just a few months ago that Denver coughed up a 20-point lead in Game 7 against the Wolves to lose in the Second Round.
Houston 1986-87 (+350): Even though, the Rockets have won two titles and been serious contenders several times over the last 40 years, the best odds were allotted to the Hakeem/Sampson Twin Towers team that had just lost to Boston in the 1985-86 Finals. The team fell apart and went only 42-40 in 1986-87. The Rockets did upset Portland before losing to Seattle in the Second Round.
Memphis 2004-05 (+900): Hubie Brown had turned the Grizz into a 50-win team in 2003-04 with Pau Gasol and a deep rotation. Hubie ended up resigning early in the 2004-05 season due to health issues and the team slumped to 5-11 but finished strong under Mike Fratello (40-26). They ended up getting swept by Phoenix in the First Round.
Minnesota 2004-05 (+500): From optimism of a 58-24 record in 2003-04 to misery in 2004-05. The Wolves looked great on paper but struggled with injuries and age-related regressions. Though Kevin Garnett was still awesome, Minnesota went 44-38 and missed the playoffs.
New Orleans 2008-09 (+900): Chris Paul was near his peak and the 56-26 Hornets nearly knocked off the Spurs in the 2007-08 playoffs. The Hornets didn’t quite play as well but were still pretty good (49-33) and were knocked off in the First Round by the Nuggets.
San Antonio 2005-06 (+250): You can pretty much pick any Spurs team from 2000 through 2014 but this squad was slightly better in the odds scale. The Spurs lost a tough seven-game series to the Mavs that is referenced above.
Utah 1998-99 (+350): Like the Pacers, the Jazz looked to have a clear path to the Finals without Jordan in the way. Utah went 37-13 but lost to a younger and more athletic Blazers team in the Second Round.
Warriors 2017-18 (-187): This Curry/KD Warriors had the best odds of winning a title as any team since 1984-85. They weren’t quite as good as the other iterations in the regular season (they were “only” 58-24) but delivered a title anyway.
L.A. Clippers 2019-20 (+425): Remember when Kawhi and Paul George were healthy and playing together regularly? They went up 3-1 against the Nuggets in the Second Round before losing three straight. Man, that Bubble was crazy.
L.A. Lakers 1987-88 (+120): The Showtime Lakers were favorites to repeat and they did, even though Detroit fans will note that a late foul in Game 7 of the Finals on Laimbeer was a bit ticky tacky.
Phoenix 1993-94 (+300): The Barkley/Kevin Johnson famously lost a tough seven-game series to eventual champs Rockets in the Second Round.
Portland 1992-93 & 1999-00 (+350): The 1992-93 Blazers were the end stages of the Clyde Drexler squads. After three straight deep playoff runs, the Blazers were still good (51-31) but were injured and were dispatched by the Spurs in the First Round.
The 1999-00 squad was one quarter away from beating Shaq and Kobe in the Western Conference Finals. Had Portland held on, they would’ve likely been favored over the Pacers in the Finals (Portland was 2-0 against the Pacers that year and +5 ppg).
Sacramento 2002-03 (+300): This was a really fun Kings team. They went 59-23 and were able to avoid the side of the playoff bracket where their nemeses, the Lakers were. The West was so deep, however, that they drew a deep Mavs team in the Second Round. Sacramento won Game 1 on the road but Chris Webber blew out his knee in Game 2 and missed the rest of the series. Sacramento still took the series to seven games but lost and Webber was never the same player again.
Seattle 1994-95 and Oklahoma City 2012-13 (+450): The Payton/Kemp Sonics won 55+ games each season from 1992-93 to 1997-98. The 1994-95 team was 57-25 but ended up having the least playoff success, losing to a young Lakers team 3-1 (Nick Van Exel had 25 ppg and really outplayed Payton).
The KD/Westbrook Thunder had a similar great five-year run and 2012-13 was the best year on paper (60-22, 9.15 SRS). OKC got screwed when Westbrook tore his knee in the First Round on a very questionable defensive play by Pat Beverley. OKC still beat the Rockets but were defeated by Memphis 4-1 in the Second Round and we were deprived of a Thunder/Spurs matchup (the Spurs swept Memphis 4-0) and, potentially, a KD/LeBron Finals rematch.