The biggest positive story of the new season is Cleveland’s 15-0 start, which puts the Cavs in pretty elite company. Much has been written about this great start but I thought we could take another look, FAQ style, and see if we can squeeze a few more interesting nuggets…
How is Cleveland doing this?
In simplest terms, the offense has exploded. The Cavs were a defense-first team last season (6th in defensive rating) that had to eke out offense (18th in offensive rating) by running most key plays through Donovan Mitchell and asking him to create points. This year, things are different. Cleveland has maintained the same defensive rating but is also first overall in offensive rating.
Last season, the Cavs were mid-pack in two-point field goal percentage (.479%, 12th in NBA) and three-point field goal percentage (.367%, 15th in NBA). Kenny Atkinson has implemented a much quicker paced offense (7th in the NBA in pace versus 22nd last season), which is paying dividends. Interestingly, the big names of Mitchell and Evan Mobley aren’t really playing any better statistically. Mitchell hasn’t been any better or shot less (his usage is the same 31%) but Atkinson has reduced his minutes load by four minutes per game, which should be helpful later in the season when they really need him.
Putting coaching aside, the biggest improvement has come from Darius Garland, who tried to play through a broken jaw last season. A healthy Garland has been incredible. He has gone from average starter last season to a clear All-Star:
Garland 2023-24: 33.4 MPG, 18.0 ppg, .446 FG%, .371 3FG%, 2.7 rpg, 6.5 apg, 14.5 PER, .067 WS48, -1.0 BPM
Garland 2024-25: 30.1 MPG, 21.1 ppg, .531 FG%, .458 3FG%, 2.2 rpg, 6.6 apg, 22.6 PER, .210 WS48, 4.0 BPM
On the surface, this uptick in shooting feels a little flukey. He has never shot nearly this well from three-point land (career mark is 38%). In fact, few players have ever shot this well from three on the volume that Garland is taking them (7 three attempts per game). The only player to shoot over 45% from three on that volume of shots is peak Steph Curry (2012-13 and 2015-16). If you reduce the attempt threshold to 6 threes per game, you get a few great shooting role players as well:
Kyle Korver 2014-15: .492% on 6.0 3PA/G
Joe Harris 2020-21: .475% on 6.4 3PA/G
Steph Curry 2015-16: .454% on 11.2 3PA/G
JJ Redick 2019-20: .453% on 6.6 3PA/G
Steph Curry 2012-13: .453% on 7.7 3PA/G
Joe Ingles 2020-21: .451 on 6.1 3PA/G
This is not to say that Garland can’t continue to shoot threes well (there are 27 players who made 42-45% of their threes on this rate) but Garland is unlikely to continue shooting threes like peak Curry.
In addition, Garland’s two-point mark (.595%) is 100 points above his career mark (49%). The shooting chart shows that he has improved his shooting percentage by taking more shots at the rim (20% versus 17% the prior two seasons) and converting those layups at a 68% clip (versus 59% for his career). He’s also shooting 61% from mid-range, which is about 15 points above his career norms. Garland is a great player but regression to the shooting mean is probable from all distances. Still, if he can retain even half of these gains, he will still be excellent.
The even bigger shooting fluke comes from Caris LeVert, who is shooting 60% from two (versus 50% for his career) and 49% from three (versus 34% for his career). Granted, LeVert’s volume is low (4 threes per game) but not that low to explain that rate of makes. This shooting has powered LeVert to a mind boggling .681% TS% and a 6.1 BPM. It is possible that Atkinson’s more fluid offensive system will sustain higher shooting rates for Garland and LeVert but the current rates seem unsustainable. Even if the offense regresses a bit, Cleveland is still a very good team and a real threat to the Celtics.
Have historically great streaks to start a season translated to titles?
No really. Of the five other teams to start 14-0 or better, only one squad, the 1993-94 Rockets, ended up winning the title. The rest of the teams to do so were all pretty close to a title. Here’s the rundown on each of these team’s season after the initial winning streak:
Golden State Warriors 2015-16, 24-0: Started out 24-0 and ended up 73-9 before losing to the Cavs under an insane set of happenings (Draymond suspension, Bogut injury, LeBron playing the best ball of his career, Kyrie outshooting Curry, and Kevin Love somehow forcing Curry to miss in isolation) that would be difficult to duplicate. In my mind, it still feels like the Warriors won that title but LeBron and Andre Iguodala remind me otherwise.
Houston Rockets 1993-94, 15-0: The Rockets won a title but had a strange regular season. They started out 15-0 before losing to Atlanta on December 3, 1993. Houston then ripped off seven more wins in a row, bringing them to a 22-1 record. From there, malaise set in. The Rockets were a more tepid 36-23 and they even tried to trade Robert Horry to add some energy to the team. The Rockets still ended up 58-24, which was good for the two-seed but they weren’t exactly roaring into the playoffs. Powered by Hakeem Olajuwon, they did win the title after two epic seven-game series (beating Barkley and Phoenix after dropping the first two games in Houston and winning the Finals against Ewing and the Knicks in a grueling battle of attrition).
Washington Capitols 1948-49, 15-0: This defunct franchise was coached by good old Red Auerbach and led by prehistoric stars like Bob Feerick and Bones McKinney. The Caps were a .500 after their great start (23-22 the rest of the way). Washington made the Finals but they were dispatched 4-2 by George Mikan and the Lakers.
Boston Celtics 1957-58, 14-0: In Bill Russell’s second season, Boston started out 14-0 and ended up with the top seed at 49-23. While the 35-23 finish sounds less impressive, it was fairly good, because the teams in that smaller league clustered around .500. The Celtics ended up losing 4-2 in the Finals to the Hawks because Russ missed two games with an ankle injury and was hobbled when he returned. Even with an injured Russell, the Hawks still needed Bob Pettit to score 50 points in Game 6 to clinch the series.
Incidentally Russell’s Celtics started almost every season of his career with a winning streak. Here’s the year-by-year breakdown:
1956-57: Russell was playing in the Olympics to start the season
1957-58: Started 14-0
1958-59: Lost opener in OT to the Knicks
1959-60: Started 6-0
1960-61: Started 2-0
1961-62: Started 4-0
1962-63: Started 3-0
1963-64: Started 7-0
1964-65: Started 11-0
1965-66: Started 2-0
1966-67: Started 4-0
1967-68: Started 6-0
1968-69: Started 4-0
How impressive is this? By way of comparison, Wilt did it 7 times but never was better than 7-0. In more modern times, Larry Bird only streaked to start a season 6 times and was never better than 6-0. Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan only streaked to start a season 5 times (though MJ started 12-0 to start 1996-97). Finally, LeBron has streaked only 5 times to start a season (most recently 3-0 this year) but never was better than 6-0. So, Russ’ season opening streaks look pretty impressive in this context.
Dallas Mavericks 2002-03, 14-0: One of the best Don Nelson teams, this squad featured the Steve Nash-Dirk Nowitzki duo plus a deep roster with Michael Finley, Nick Van Exel, and a ton of other pretty good players. They finished up 60-22 for the season and were first in offense and ninth in defense. The Mavs did not get the top seed or even win their division. The Tim Duncan Spurs started out slowly (10-7) but rallied to 60-22 and won the tie breaker for the top seed. The teams would meet in the Western Conference Finals but Dirk missed most of the series with injuries, robbing us of a proper match up. The Spurs won 4-2 and then took out the Nets to win the title.