1. Boston Beaning: With the outlier of the Detroit series, the Finals appear to have mirrored Boston other playoff series quite a bit. The Celts are playing like a formidable 66-win team at home. They’ve controlled most of the first two games, with the exception of the Lakers flurry at the end of the Game Two. So far, the difference in the series really has been Paul Pierce, who has 26 ppg on .615% and is shooting 7-8 from three. Throw in the fact that Ray Allen has been more efficient than Kobe Bryant and a 2-0 lead makes sense. I was also surprised that the Celts defense, though great, has been so effective against the Lakers. The Spurs also tried to keep Kobe off the foul line and let him shoot jumpers but it didn’t work at all. Now the same exact plan has been lights out.
Phil Jackson didn’t make much time with another classic whine about the officiating too. While Jackson’s complaints have often been grating and sometimes overly dramatic he had reason to complain in Game Two, where Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom were nailed on ticky tack fouls early on and the Lakers barely went to the line at all (there was one particularly egregious play where Rajon Rondo just shoved Pau Gasol and took the ball ). The disparity at the line was quite noticeable (73 free throws for the Celts and 38 for the Lakers so far).
Going forward, I think the Lakers should do well enough to bring the series back to Los Angeles. The Lakers are a very tough home team and I just don’t see Ray Allen doing so well on the road, particularly after the team struggled in Atlanta and Cleveland. In terms of adjustments, it’s clear that Phil Jackson may have a more comprehensive plan for Pierce, who torched Vlad Radmanovic and Luke Walton. We may actually see Kobe or Odom on Pierce for stretches. On the Boston side, all they need is one game in Los Angeles to keep the pressure on. It’s hard to actually plan for such a strategy so I’m not sure what Doc Rivers tells him team. I think they’ll stay the course on Kobe and hope that the Lakers don’t score better (and get more free throws on the road).
2. 2-0 Blues: It is a well-celebrated stats that NBA playoffs series are almost always over at 2-0. The oft quoted stat is that a team up 2-0 wins roughly 95% of the NBA series. This makes sense. Usually the better team wins and usually the better team has home court, so 2-0 teams should win a lot. Still, the NBA Finals is different from a first or second series. The Finals is theoretically between very good teams that are evenly matched. How much better have teams down 0-2 done in this context? Well, obviously we’ll take a look! Here goes:
–1954-55, Nats up 2-0 on the Pistons: Nats win 4-3
–1958-59, Celtics up 2-0 on the Lakers: Celtics win 4-0
-1960-61, Celtics up 2-0 on the Hawks: Celtics win 4-1
-1962-63, Celtics up 2-0 on the Lakers: Celtics win 4-2
–1963-64, Celtics up 2-0 on the Warriors: Celtics win 4-1
-1964-65, Celtics up 2-0 on the Lakers: Celtics win 4-1
-1966-67, Sixers up 2-0 on the Warriors: Sixers win 4-2
–1968-69, Lakers up 2-0 on the Celtics: Celtics win 4-3
-1970-71, Bucks up 2-0 on the Bullets: Bucks win 4-0 (the first two games the teams alternated home courts)
–1974-75, Warriors up 2-0 on the Bullets: Warriors win 4-0 (the first two games the teams alternated home courts)
–1975-76, Celtics up 2-0 on the Suns: Celtics win 4-2
–1976-77, Sixers up 2-0 on the Blazers: Blazers win 4-2
–1982-83, Sixers up 2-0 on the Lakers: Sixers win 4-0
–1985-86, Celtics up 2-0 on the Rockets: Celtics win 4-2
–1986-87, Lakers up 2-0 on the Celtics: Lakers win 4-2
–1988-89, Pistons up 2-0 on the Lakers: Pistons win 4-0
–1992-93, Bulls up 2-0 on the Suns: Bulls win 4-2 (road team went up 2-0)
–1994-95, Rockets up 2-0 on the Magic: Rockets win 4-0 (road team went up 2-0)
–1995-96, Bulls up 2-0 on the Sonics: Bulls win 4-2
–1996-97, Bulls up 2-0 on the Jazz: Bulls win 4-2
–1998-99, Spurs up 2-0 on the Knicks: Spurs win 4-1
–1999-00, Lakers up 2-0 on the Pacers: Lakers win 4-2
–2002-03, Lakers up 2-0 on the Nets: Lakers win 4-0
–2004-05, Spurs up 2-0 on the Pistons: Spurs win 4-3
–2005-06, Mavs up 2-0 on the Heat: Heat wins 4-2
–2006-07, Spurs up 2-0 on the Cavs: Spurs sweep 4-0
So, 26 times a team has gone up 2-0 in the NBA Finals and that team has won 23 of those times, lowering the odds to 88.5% chance of winning, which is not much off of the overall winning percentage for 2-0 playoff series. Only three times has a team down 0-2 forced a Game 7, and won only once (1968-69 Celts). The 1976-77 Blazers and the 2005-06 Heat both went on to win four in a row after the 0-2 start. Oddly enough, the most common result of an 0-2 Finals start is a six game series (11 of the 26 series ended in six games, including the two comebacks). The next most likely outcome, however, is a sweep (eight sweeps in the NBA Finals). So, the numbers are not great for the Lakers going forward but 88% is incrementally better than 95%.