It’s hard to say that the 2009-10 season has been full of surprises so far. We knew New Jersey would be bad and that the Cavs would be good, though we didn’t expect the Nets to be quite so bad or the Cavs to be not as good but, like most of the NBA, these teams are playing somewhat in line with expectations. We do have a few outliers, teams that are playing much better than most expected: Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, and Dallas (we can also throw in Miami but they are only 9-6 with a mediocre expected won-loss record). It’s too early to really know if these teams can continue playing this well. Let’s take a look at the teams, how they seem to be winning, and whether we should expect this to continue:
–Oklahoma City Thunder (8-7): Coming into the season, we all believed that the Thunder were on the right track but that playoff contention was at least a year away. Well so far the Thunder have looked pretty formidable. Kevin Durant has improved a bit this year (27.1 ppg, 23.5 PER), which has surely helped the team but the serious improvement has been defensively. Last season, the Thunder were a terrible offensive team (29th in offensive efficiency) and a slightly below average defense team (20th in defensive efficiency). This year, the offensive has improved a little (23rd), which is due mostly to Durant but the defense has shot up to 6th in the NBA. This can also be seen when watching OKC, as they’ve really made great players like Kobe Bryant work for points.
I’m not quite sure that OKC can maintain such a strong defensive rating but their defense has looked tough behind Thabo Sefolosha, quick young guards like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and bruisers Jeff Green, Nick Collison, and Etan Thomas. The Thunder are very aggressive, they foul, block, steal, and force turnovers at all at high rates. The one caveat that makes me think we will see regression is that the Thunder’s three-point defense has been really good (.303%, second best in the NBA against league average of .349%). While the Thunder do have great perimeter defenders, maintaining that pace over a season such a pace over a full season seems unlikely, no matter who you are.
As a side note, the vaunted Durant plus/minus issue seems to have righted itself. According to 82games.com, the Thunder are +4.4 ppg when Durant is on the court (versus -8.5 when he is off the court). As we posited, Durant’s prior bad ratings in this category seem to be a result of random noise of a young player on a bad team. Interestingly, Green is now caught up by the same issue, as the team has been outscored by 5.6 ppg when he plays. Green was also negative last year too in this stat but I’ve always been agnostic as the utility of plus/minus because it is so context specific.
In all, I expect the Thunder to regress a little bit defensively but this could be offset by improvement of the young players offensively and there is no reason that OKC can’t compete and continue to flirt with .500 and a playoff spot this year. The playoffs may still be out of reach, however, because a few teams below OKC now (Spurs and Hornets) might be expected to improve as the year progresses.
–Atlanta Hawks: We thought the Hawks were good for 45-50 wins but they have been great so far (12-4) and have an excellent expected won-loss record too. Unlike OKC, the Hawks’ big jump has been made offensively (4th in offensive efficiency), while their defense remains pretty much unchanged. Last year, the Hawks’ offense was fueled by hot three-point shooting. This year, the three-point shooting has slumped but the Hawks are scoring a bunch by getting serious scoring efficiency in the paint from forwards Josh Smith (.542 trueshooting %) and Al Horford (.602 trueshooting %). Combine the dangerous frontline with the usual performance from Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford (who has been as good as Flip Murray was last year) and you have a pretty good team.
Can the Hawks continue to score so efficiently? Well, Horford and Smith are young so the improvement could be real. Horford is actually shooting more than last year and is still canning shots more frequently. Smith is shooting as often as last year buy has changed his game dramatically. Smith has totally abandoned the three-point shot (only two this year versus 87 last season) and his rebounds have skyrocketed at the same time. I have to think that the Hawks should be able to continue scoring at this pace. Horford may not be able to shoot over 60% (effective fg%) long term but could over his peak. As for Smith, he is a uniquely talented player and the major changes in his tactics indicate that he should keep this going. Combine these facts with likely improvement in their three-point shooting and this means that the Hawks are a real force in the East. They are young and athletic and are not demonstrably worse than the Big Three in the East (Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston).
–The Old Guys, Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns: For all the credit Phoenix has gotten for playing so well this year, Dallas has actually been the more impressive surprise team, outscoring opponents by 7.7 ppg versus 5.5 for Phoenix. We won’t focus on these teams too much now because I am very curious to do so later with a bit larger sample size (i.e. at the beginning of 2010). In the short term, we can note that Rick Carlisle has helped to improve Dallas’ defense significantly from last year (which is something that Shawn Marion gets some credit for as well). Also note that the Mavs’ offensive stars (Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry) are playing as well as ever. On the negative side, Jason Kidd’s offense continues to decline, as he has had serious problems creating non-three-point shots (only about two non-threes per game). This is further reflected by the fact that Kidd has an absurdly low four free throws this season through 15 games.
As for Phoenix, they continue the trend of being a prolific but one-sided team. The Suns are running and scoring at the best rate in the NBA but have the 27th defensive efficiency. Specifically, Steve Nash is playing at the level he did during his MVP seasons. He has a 23.4 PER and his numbers are a virtual carbon copy of 2004-2007 editions. To the Suns’ credit, Nash’s minutes are not quite as heavy as they were (32.7 mpg this year versus 34-35 mpg during his peak), so it is possible that Nash can maintain this statistical pace the same way Utah with John Stockton when they gradually reduced his minutes starting at the same age and were rewarded with same per-minute production. Whether Dallas and Phoenix can continue to outplay the Lakers is another question. I suspect they can’t but we’ll revisit this story line in a bit.