It’s really hard to explain and contextualize this amazing Rocket run. The Rockets are a good team and have been in the 50-win range for the last few years but this 22-game winning streak makes no sense. As we noted last season, almost any team that ever strung together an 18-game winning streak won a title. In fact, before 2006-07, only one team with at least a 16-game winning streak didn’t make it to the conference finals (the Mavs and Suns proceeded to get bounced in the first and second round respectively). Houston is a good team but they do not seem to fit in the company of all these other winners. The Rockets have one star with T-Mac (and two if Yao Ming was still healthy) and some depth but this is not the roster that you’d associate with a title contender. This raises all sorts of questions that I’d thought we’d take a little close at this streak and see if we learn anything deeper:
Is this streak a fluke?
Since only one other team has won this many in a row in the history in the NBA, you have to think it’s hard to do this based primarily upon luck. The schedule has been favorable (only seven road games) and they’ve only played seven teams that can be considered upper tier teams (i.e. top nine in the West and top four in the East). On the other hand, the Rockets have thoroughly crushed the opposition. They’ve have had only three wins during the streak of less than eight points (a four-point win over the Warriors to start the streak, a six-point win at Minnesota, and a two-point win over Kings). Moreover, the “challenge” games have gone quite well. The Rockets crushed both New Orleans and Dallas (sans a suspended Dirk Nowitzki) on the road. But even beating 22 scrubby teams in a row is almost unprecedented.
How are the Rockets doing this?
If I told you before the season that the Rockets were on a pace to win 55-60 games, you wouldn’t have been surprised. But the team that is running the table is not that same Yao-based team it was coming into the season. This is just good basketball team, with only one “true” star and even his star qualifications are dubious. I’m not first to investigate the streak and last week John Hollinger correctly identified that Luis Scola and Carl Landry have helped the depth quite a bit. Rafer Alston has also played much better. Here are the stats for the Rockets’ key players the last month, which accounts for about half of the streak, juxtaposed with the seasonal averages, which are in parentheses:
-Luis Scola: 12.4 ppg, .519 FG%,7.9 rpg, 1.5 apg (9.3 ppg, .516 FG%, 5.8 rpg, 1.3 apg)
-Rafer Alston: 16.6 ppg, .427 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 6.1 apg (13.0 ppg, .406 FG%, 3.6 rpg, 5.6 apg)
-Tracy McGrady: 24.4 ppg, .455 FG%, 4.9 rpg, 6.1 apg (22.0 ppg, .439 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 5.6 apg)
-Shane Battier: 10.6 ppg, .433 FG%, 5.7 rpg, 2.8 apg (9.1 ppg, .431 FG%, 5.1 rpg, 2.0 apg)
-Luther Head: 8.2 ppg, .471 FG%, 2.0 rpg, 2.2 apg (7.8 ppg, .434 FG%, 1.7 rpg, 1.9 apg)
-Carl Landry: 12.1 ppg, .683 FG%, 5.8 rpg, 0.3 apg (8.5 ppg, .633 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 0.5 apg)
So, we have a definite up-tick by every member of the team’s core, though we see no mind boggling improvements. You can’t single any one player out for praise but power forward (Scola, Landry, and Chuck Hayes), in total, has added up to one All-Star level player. Throw in that McGrady is playing a bit better and Alston has raised his game to pretty good from below average and you have a good team.
What about Adelman?
On Friday, Peter Vecsey wrote a nice article crediting Adelman for stabilizing the Rockets and being, perhaps, the most underrated coach of All-Time. It’s interesting, Adelman’s perception has never been as a great coach. Adelman started his career in Portland and in his first full season of 1989-90 turned a theoretically talented team into an NBA Finalist. The Blazers went to two Finals under Adelman and won 63 games in 1990-91 but he was always perceived to be a push button coach, i.e., put in the talented guys and sat back and watched them play. When the Blazers began to age, Adelman was fired after a 47-35 season in 1993-94 (his worst record as a Blazer coach).
It was true that Adelman was blessed to inherit Terry Porter, Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Buck Williams, and Kevin Duckworth (the young thinner version), not to mention a rookie Clifford Robinson. But Adelman definitely did something right. The Blazers were tenth and fourteenth in points allowed per possession in 1987-88 and 1988-89. In Adelman’s first full three seasons in Portland, the defense greatly improved to fourth, third, and second respectively in points allowed per possession. Adelman has never been known as a defensive coach but he deserves some credit for this turnaround. Still, the lasting moments of those old Blazer teams were disappointing. In 1990-91, they had the NBA’s best record only to be upset by the Lakers in the Conference Finals after Robinson threw the ball away on a four-one-one fast break with minutes left in Game 5 of the series. In 1991-92, the Blazers were handled by the Bulls. The Blazers played the Bulls tougher than people remember but the series ended bitterly when Portland blew an 18-point second half lead to the Bulls’ bench. The Adelman Blazers didn’t win another playoff series 1991-92.
After a year off, Adelman went to the Warriors and suffered through two nightmare seasons. The Warriors were in disarray as an internal revolt by Chris Webber and a few others got Don Nelson canned in 1994-95. Adelman came into this still toxic environment in 1995-96 and fared little better. The talented offensive team went 36-46 that first year and followed it up with a 30-52 record in 1996-97 before being fired after the season. The Warriors had some useful players in those days (Latrell Sprewell, Joe Smith, Rony Seikaly, Tim Hardaway, Chris Gatling) but couldn’t (or wouldn’t) defend. Adelman also opted to bench Hardaway for the middling B.J. Armstrong, a decision that looks really bad in retrospect (Hardaway was coming off of injury but would soon return to star form in Miami). Hardaway, however, wasn’t a very sympathetic figure. According to Shaun Powell in a 1996 article for The Sporting News, Hardaway forced a trade in less-than-classy ways:
“Hardaway’s campaign started December 12, when he was benched by Warriors Coach Rick Adelman in favor of B.J. Armstrong, who didn’t exactly wrestle the job away from Hardaway. Adelman thought the offense would run smoother under Armstrong. What Adelman didn’t anticipate was that his relationship with Hardaway would get rockier.
Hardaway rebelled. He cursed assistant Rod Higgins, who was once Hardaway’s best buddy, and took a swing at Higgins. He sulked on the bench. He told the team back in January that he wanted to be traded. The front office had no intentions of signing Hardaway, a free agent this summer, for next season. But they figured keeping him this season was worth it, because the team could use his $3.6 million salary to spend in the free-agent shopping spree. That is, until Hardaway committed a pair of flagrant acts.
First, he re-ignited a feud with a spirited exchange February 14 with teammate Latrell Sprewell in a game against the Celtics, and the two had to be separated. That helped Hardaway’s cause, because the team wants to resign Sprewell and wants him as happy as possible. Then, three days before the deadline, he refused to enter a game against the Mavericks, called Adelman ‘a liar’ and said their relationship had turned personal. Presto — Hardaway [was traded] to Miami.”
So, Golden State was a mess for Adelman. It was a very difficult situation for any coach (as his successor in Golden State, P.J. Carelsimo can attest to) but Adelman left the Warriors 1997 without proving that he was a primary driver of the good Portland team’s engine.
Adelman took another season off before getting another job, this time with the Sacramento Kings in 1998-99. Adelman’s run in Sacramento was arguably even better than his time in Portland. The Kings were a completely dead franchise when Adelman came to town. But Adelman didn’t come to town alone. The Kings acquired Chris Webber for an aging Mitch Richmond, signed Vlade Divac, and drafted a couple of rookies named Jason Williams and Peja Stojakovic.
It’s true that Adelman was giving a nice team to work with but he also did a nice job of getting valuable minutes out of the bench. In particular, he helped develop Jon Barry, Scot Pollard, Lawrence Funderburke, and Hedo Turkoglu. The team came close to a title after the blew a 3-2 lead to the Lakers based upon some bad calls and a miracle shot by Robert Horry in Game 6 and a more conventional choke job, at home, in Game 7. The Kings were very likely to beat the Nets in the Finals if they just could’ve squeezed by L.A.. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be for the Kings. They were almost as good in 2002-03 but Chris Webber blew out his knee in the playoffs and both he and the Kings were never quite as a good again. Adelman’s team made the playoffs the next three seasons but weren’t a really serious threat again. The Kings let Adelman go after 2005-06 feeling that it was time to start over. This time, Adelman left the Kings with a strong reputation, if not at the level of the superstar coach types.
The entire pre-Rocket Adelman coaching careers is probably not quite Hall of Fame level. Adelman teams were characterized by an ability to play well together almost immediately and an ability to exploit depth. The teams also were remarkably consistent, both the Blazers and Kings had long streaks of 50-win seasons. Whether by luck or because of some fatal flaw, however, the teams never got over the hump. It’s hard to know how much credit Adelman deserves for doing well with very talented teams but the fact that he’s doing the same thing now with the Rockets definitely helps his case.
How much credit does T-Mac get?
As noted above, McGrady is still the best player on the team but he is not quite the player he was. It’s hard to understate how good McGrady was in his first few seasons in Orlando. In 2002-03, T-Mac basically had a season that fits right into Michael Jordan’s prime, 32.1 ppg, .457 FG%, 6.0 rpg, 5.5 apg. Since coming to the Rockets, McGrady has been an All-Star but not as good as the Orlando player. That is to be expected because the Magic had little in the way of alternatives. While T-Mac was taking 22.1 shots per 36 minutes in 2002-03, the number dipped down to 18.8 in his first year with the Rockets (the lowest of his post-Toronto career). The shots are also low 19.1 per 36 minutes this year.
Another odd area of decline for T-Mac is in three-point shooting per 36 minutes. Check the numbers since he first became a go to guy in Orlando:
Year 3s/3s att pct.
2000-01 0.7-1.9 .355
2001-02 1.3-3.5 .364
2002-03 2.1-5.5 .386
2003-04 2.3-6.9 .339
—-(traded to Houston)—–
2004-05 1.6-4.9 .326
2005-06 1.5-4.8 .312
2006-07 1.8-5.4 .331
2007-08 1.5-4.6 .314
McGrady shot between 35% and 38% his first three years in Orlando. Then, in McGrady’s last season in Orlando, his three point shots popped up but his accuracy fell to .339%. At that time, it seemed that McGrady was chucking because the team was so bad and he was desperate to score and that he had lost the urge to create shots in traffic. Since then, it has been all down hill from three, even thought he isn’t shooting as many threes. Conversely, McGrady’s ability to get to the line has also slid. On both Orlando and Houston, McGrady had been steady at 6 or 7 free throws attempted per 36 minutes. This year, McGrady’s 5.3 free throw attempts per 36 minutes is his worst since 1998-99 and he is shooting a career worst .686% from the line.
It’s hard to know why McGrady has declined at a prime age. I know McGrady has had chronic back woes and that may be the reason for the decline from three AND the line. Still through all this, McGrady is the Rocket’s most important player. The power forward solution, in aggregate, equals a very good player but there is something to be said for having a star to rely on for points every night. Moreover, McGrady’s numbers the last month fit pretty well into his Orlando years. Hopefully, he can keep it up this year and in the future. But the truth is that there is no basis for McGrady as MVP candidate at this point in the season. The Rockets are just like the Adelman Blazers and Kings. They’ve got some stars (Drexler and Webber) but they never had the best guy, just very good and deep teams.
When will this streak end?
It’s a tough week for the Rockets. They have the Celts on Tuesday and then go on a road trip to New Orleans, Golden State, and Phoenix. The Rockets easily could lose any of these four games but I think the first loss will come on the road in New Orleans, which has the defense up front to neutralize Scola and Company.
2. Top Two Guards: Last week, ESPN.com did a nice feature on the best shooting guards of All-Time. There isn’t much in the way of commentary but rather an aggregate voting of 20 experts. It wasn’t surprising that everyone agreed that Michael Jordan was the best of the lot and that either Kobe Bryant and Jerry West was the second best. I’m not on any panel but I thought I’d throw my top 10 out there too. I feel like a broken record on this point but before you can assess the “best” or any rating list, you need some sort of standard of defining greatness. Is it peak value or career value or some combination of the two? Are you judged against your peers or must the rater decide how well a Jerry West from 1960 would do in the 2007-08 NBA? I don’t know the answer to any of these questions but I assume that most voters were assuming that quality of play over time was not an issue. Also, the ESPN crew evidently considered Oscar Robertson a point guard (I don’t quite agree), so we won’t include him either. Thus, we’ll try to vote in the same manner. With all that said…here’s my vote with some brief commentary:
10. Sam Jones: He was never the star of the Celtics but he filled a role, kind of like Reggie Miller, that no one else could fill. Jones’ stats were pretty damn good to boot. Throw in that Jones’ stats were deptressed by the fact that he had to sit behind Bill Sharman until he was 28 and Jones could’ve ranked even higher.
9. Allen Iverson: Very hard to put this guy in any sort of context. He could move up the list if he
8. Ray Allen: He’s starting to slowdown but he was a remarkable player for ten years. He’s better than Reggie Miller but I don’t think he has quite the same staying power that Miller did. Also, AI is breathing down his neck.
7. Reggie Miller: That patron saint of long career and playoff value guys. Miller’s peak came in 1989-90 and 1990-91, before he was really a star, but he just kept trucking along. Nearly 1,400 above average regular season NBA games has some huge value and can’t be ignored.
6. Tracy McGrady: As noted above, he has descended for superstar to just plain star. At the current rate he should eclipse Gervin soon and, possibly, Drexler. If he somehow returns to his old level, McGrady could go even higher.
5. George Gervin: A high efficiency scoring machine for years. It seemed like he played forever because he was in the ABA so early but Gervin only played to age-33. He probably could’ve played longer but he was still a scorer to the end.
4. Clyde Drexler: Sure he looked a little goofy the way he dribbled with his head down at all times and he kicked awkwardly on his jumpers but Drexler was the second best modern two guard of the 1980s and is closer in ability to Kobe than Kobe is to Jordan.
3. Kobe Bryant: Is not up to 850 career games and has outpeaked his old competition in McGrady.
2. Jerry West: If you’re assuming that level of competition is even, West has the clear edge on Kobe so far. Bryant may catch him because West’s career ended at 35. Check back in a year or two on this one.
1. Michael Jordan: Don’t you love it when subjective questions have only one right answer?
Didn’t make the cut
-Pete Maravich might’ve been a wonderful player to watch but he had a ton of turnovers and wasn’t much of a defender.
-Sidney Moncrief’s knees killed his shot at the list but he was the third best guard behind MJ and Drexler in the 1980s.
-Mitch Richmond, Hal Greer, and Joe Dumars were all great pros but not quite superstars. Dumars can blame some of that on voluntarily going to the bench for Jerry Stackhouse. Still none of these three really can lay claim to a top ten ranking.
-Earl Monroe, like Maravich, had an aura about him but his stats were good and not great. He put up great numbers for the Bullets but was just a valuable starter for the Knicks. This seemed to jive with the feelings at the time as Pearl had only two All-Star appearances with the Knicks.
-Dave Bing’s career was just too short to make the cut.
Moving Up?
-Dwyane Wade should be on the list in a few years but it is premature to rank–just remember Penny Hardaway circa 1995-96. If Wade can stay healthy, he should be in the top five.
-Nobody loves Vince Carter but he’s been very good for almost a decade. VC really dropped off this year but if he returns to pace for another five years, he has a claim for a top ten slot.