Lakers-Celtics, Again: Lakers-Celtics is always a fun Finals match up. Of course, the fun was the surprise in getting this match up, more than the games that led us to this moment. In fact, the actual games have been, for the most part, quite mundane. Regardless of the workman like way that the Lakers and Celts have dispatched their opponents, this is a potentially very fun NBA Finals. Predicting this NBA Finals is tough because both the Lakers and Celts struggled coming into the playoffs and have just turned it on since. Boston looked as done as any team we’ve seen coming in and now they’ve knocked off both the Cavs and Magic (probably the two best teams in the NBA coming into the playoffs) to reach L.A..
As for Boston and Los Angeles, this is the storied rivalry in NBA history. In fact, this will be the twelfth time the two franchises will meet in the NBA Finals. For those readers who are not NBA history buffs, you might not know about how the Bill Russell Celts smoked the Lakers seven times from 1958-59 to 1968-69. In the 1980s, the Magic Johnson Lakers took two of three Finals from the Larry Bird Celtics. Most recently, in 2007-08, the historically tough Boston defense took out Kobe’s Lakers in six games. In case you’re wondering, here are the most frequent NBA Finals match ups in NBA history:
1. Lakers/Celtics, 11 times (Celtics lead series 9-2)
2. Lakers/76ers, 4 times (Lakers lead series 3-1)
Celtics/Hawks, 4 times (Celtics lead series 3-1)
4. Knicks/Lakers, 3 times (Knicks lead series 2-1)
Pistons/Lakers, 3 times (Pistons lead series 2-1)
6. Celtics/Rockets, 2 times (Celtics lead series 2-0)
Bulls/Jazz, 2 times (Bulls lead series 2-0)
Bullets/Sonics (series tied 1-1)
Some observations about the above list:
-Lakers-Celtics is recurring theme in NBA history and this is the third incarnation of the rivalry. Of the other repeat Finals match ups, most usually happened between roughly the same teams in back-to-back times or another short time span of a few years, where the core players on each team had not changed. The only two exceptions: (1) the Lakers and Philly met three times in four years in the early 1980s and then had a quickie rematch where the Allen Iverson group was beaten around by Shaq and Kobe in 2001 and (2) the Bad Boy Isiah Thomas Pistons split back-to-back Finals with the Magic Lakers in the 1988 and 1989. In 2004, the balanced Larry Brown Pistons with Chauncey Billups and the Wallaces surprisingly dispatched the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. (Arguably, the Celtics/Rockets re-match falls into this group as well. The teams met twice in five years. Boston was basically the same team but the Rockets had swapped out star Moses Malone, their star in 1981, for Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon).
-Two match ups of this group are not likely to meet again. Bullets/Sonics can’t happen, as the franchises have changed names (and locations) since they met in the late 1970s. Still, it isn’t impossible to have Wizards/Thunder version of the match up one day. Celtics/Hawks can’t happen because the franchises are now in the same conference. In fact, this was the first great rivalry of the Shot Clock Era. The teams met four times in five years, with Bob Pettit and Bill Russell slugging it out. Back then, the Hawks were in St. Louis (and in the Western Conference). They first met Boston in the 1956-57 Finals, Russell’s rookie year, and Boston won a tough seven-game series. The Hawks won their second match up, thanks to Pettit’s heroic game Game 6, where he scored 50 points to knock of Boston in 1958 (Russell was out for most of the game with an injury). They met again in 1960 and 1961, but Boston had little trouble knocking them off each time.
The most famous moment of this rivalry was not Pettit’s 50-points or Russell launching the Celtic dynasty in 1957. Nope, it was the rivalry between Red Auerbach and Hawks owner Ben Kerner. We go back to Terry Pluto’s “Tall Tales” for the story before Game 3 of the 1957 NBA Finals, when Auerbach accused Kerner of screwing with the height of the baskets. In the ensuing argument, Auerbach punched out Kerner. Bob Cousy told Pluto: “Auerbach blames me for what happened, but I believe the whole setting was a factor…The fans [in St. Louis’ Kiel Auditorium] were right on top of you, and the St. Louis fans could be very vulgar, and especially vicious to black players. As we were warming up, I sensed that there was something wrong with the basket. I said, ‘Arnold. that basket’s not 10 feet.’…Kerner took Arnold’s questioning the basket as a personal affront. He was screaming at Arnold, questioning his integrity. Arnold had his back turned to Kerner. As Kerner came closer, Arnold just turned around and leveled him. He really cold-cocked Kerner, put him right down at midcourt with a sold-out crowd waiting for the game to begin.”
According to Auerbach “that was no big deal. Not worth talking about.” Kerner also pooh-poohed the incident: “We all had our fights back then, and not just the player. I love Red….He may have punched me, but I had a night for him in St. Louis the year he quit coaching.” Perhaps, but I am just trying to wrap my mind around any modern equivalent to this story. Could you see Doc Rivers punching at Jerry Buss at center court in Los Angeles? What exactly David Stern do in response? Well, we know what Stern would probably do. By comparison, Auerbach was supposedly fined $300 and St. Louis ended up winning the game 100-98, if not the series.
2. Lakers-Celtics, Now: Returning to the present time, predicting Lakers/Celtics is a tough call. These are very similar teams by the numbers:
| Team | Off. Eff. | Rank | Def. Eff. | Rank | Pace | Rank |
| Lakers | 108.8 | 11th | 103.7 | 4th | 92.8 | 14th |
| Celtics | 107.7 | 15th | 103.8 | 5th | 91.6 | 22nd |
What we have are two slow-paced, defensive-first squads. The Celtics had more problems scoring and were slower but it’s not hard to see that the Boston team of the playoffs could be a bit better than the one from the regular season. In terms of individual match ups, there are a couple of doozies:
–Point Guard, Rajon Rondo v. Derek Fisher: Fisher had some nice moments in Games 5 and 6 against Phoenix but he couldn’t really guard Steve Nash, Deron Williams, or Russell Westbrook and he probably will have similar problems with Rajon Rondo. Indeed, Rondo memorably tore Fisher apart in the clinching Game 6 in the 2008 Finals and Rondo has improved greatly since then, while Fisher continues to gamely hang around as a heady vet. Expect Phil Jackson to use Shannon Brown a little more this series (he used some very unorthodox defensive match ups on Steve Nash last round too, including Pau Gasol for a couple of trips).
–Shooting Guard, Ray Allen v. Kobe Bryant: Allen and Bryant have had a fun and chippy rivalry going back to Allen’s Sonics days. At this point, Allen is still a nice player but Kobe is just way too much for him. No one expects Allen to win this match up or even play Kobe to a draw but Allen will have to be enough of a scoring threat to make Bryant work. So far, Allen has been feast-or-famine in the playoffs. In 12 games against the Cavs and Magic, Allen broke 20 points five times but had less than ten points four times.
–Small Forward, Paul Pierce v. Ron Artest: Another weird match up. Artest is a nut and has some shot selection issues but he has the physical size/speed combo that should match up well with Pierce. Boston’s great defense, however, will exacerbate Artest’s offensive problems (namely forcing him into taking three-pointers, which is not his strength). Pierce is clearly the better player, but Artest is more likely to give him problems than Allen is for Kobe.
–Power Forward/Center: Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glenn Davis, and Rasheed Wallace v. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum: The take in 2008 was that the physical Celtic front court dominated this series. Bynum missed that series with a knee injury and his presence could make a big difference in that department (though it’s been reported that he’s having knee issues now too). The notion that Gasol or Odom are soft also is without merit. They aren’t as physically strong as Perkins or Davis, or as manically driven as KG (no one really is) but Gasol and Odom are plenty gritty and now they should have Bynum to bang with Perkins/Davis. Moreover, the big difference now is that Ron Artest has replaced Vladimir Radmanovic (who had big minutes at small forward for the Lakers in the 2008 Finals). The swap of Artest for Vlad is as big a “toughness” swap as can be made and allows the Odom and Gasol to stay off of the center position. Putting aside questions of toughness, the other big difference with 2008 is Garnett. He is not the same player he was in 2008 (due to age/wear-and-tear). He put aside a sluggish (for him) regular season, to play very well against Miami and Cleveland but looked worse again against the Magic. The hope is that Dwight Howard was the source of any struggles and not overall regression by KG to regular season numbers.
Prediction: This is a very fun series, with tons of history, characters, and match ups. Kobe Bryant has been unbelievable almost any time the Lakers have needed him to be and that fact, combined with the Lakers’ improved front court, will bring Bryant his second Shaqless title. Lakers win 4-3.
3. Whither Thou, Game 7?: As we mentioned above, this playoffs has been notable for its absence of Game 7s. There has been only one Game 7 this entire playoffs (Milwaukee-Atlanta) and none since the first round. I couldn’t really remember the last time there were no Game 7s after round one. The answer: not that long ago, 2006-07. In fact, the NBA hasn’t had a Game 7 in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals since 2004-05. How rare is this lack of Game 7s? The final three rounds of the playoffs is made up of seven separate series and getting a seven game series even once is far from a given. Here’s a breakdown of distribution of seven-game series per playoffs over the last 30 years (we will only count playoff series played after the first round, as there were no seven-game series in the first round until 2002):
–0 seven-game series: 6 times
-1 seven-game series: 7 times
-2 seven-game series: 12 times
-3 seven-game series: 2 times
-4 seven-game series: 2 times
-5 seven game series: 1 time
The year of the seven-game series was 1993-94, thanks to the Knicks, who went seven games against the Bulls, Pacers, and Rockets in consecutive series. As for this year, the lack of seven-game series is not that atypical. The most likely outcome per playoffs, is two Game 7s but it’s just a likely that we get none or only one Game 7. Boston and Los Angeles hopefully will break the ice on this one in about two weeks.
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