The first full month is in the books. I’m going to look at what a teams’ conference rank on 11/30 has historically meant and what it means for teams in 2007-08. Here’s a look at each seed at the end of play on November 30th and how well they’ve continued to play. This table goes back to the 1983-84 season, when the current 16-team playoff format began. The column on the left is the team rank on 11/30. The row across the top indicates the final standings. The numbers in the chart show where each team finished. For example teams that were 1st in their conference standings on 11/30 finished 1st 18 times, 2nd 10 times, 3rd 8 times, etc. The 1999 season was not included, because play hadn’t started on 11/30/98 due to the lockout.
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Final |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
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11/30 |
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1 |
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18 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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2 |
|
10 |
14 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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3 |
|
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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4 |
|
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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5 |
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2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
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6 |
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2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
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7 |
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0 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
12 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
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8 |
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0 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
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9 |
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0 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
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10 |
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2 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
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12 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
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13 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
8 |
0 |
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14 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
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15 |
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0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
While slightly less than 20% of teams held their 11/30 conference seeding at the end of the season, over 50% are within one place of that seed, 67% finish within 2 places and 80% finish within 3 places. So wherever your team is now, it’s a pretty decent bet they’ll stay fairly close to that spot by the end of the year. There are exceptions almost every year, but generally teams finish the way they start.
This next table shows how well each 11/30 seed fared in the playoffs. The numbers indicate the furthest point each team advanced, not the number of teams that advanced that far. For instance, champions aren’t included in the conference champion or won 2nd round totals.
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Place on 11/30 |
Champs |
Conference Champ |
Won 2nd Round |
Won 1st Round |
Lost 1st Round |
Lottery |
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1 |
10 |
7 |
13 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
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2 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
11 |
4 |
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3 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
22 |
3 |
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4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
14 |
20 |
4 |
|
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
12 |
19 |
7 |
|
6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
16 |
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7 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
27 |
10 |
|
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
20 |
18 |
|
9 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
11 |
24 |
|
10 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
12 |
30 |
|
11 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
38 |
|
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
36 |
|
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
27 |
|
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
25 |
|
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
Every team other than the top two seeds has historically been more likely to not make it past the 1st round. No team that was seeded 13th or lower on 11/30 has ever made it past round 1. Of the 23 eventual champions, 22 were at least a top 5 seed and all but one eventual conference champion was in the top 7 on 11/30. Only 10 teams seeded 8th or lower on 11/30 have ever advanced as far as a conference final.
Here’s a look at each seed and what it has meant being here on 11/30 and what it means for teams in that position in the 2007-08 season:
1st Place: This is by far the best place to be. Teams at #1 on 11/30 have won 10 championships and have had a 65% success rate in getting as far as the conference finals. Only 1 team, the ’02 Bucks, has ever fallen out of the top spot on 11/30 all the way to the lottery. All but 8 of these teams advanced past round one. The current #1 seeds are San Antonio and Boston. If history is any indication, both these teams can be expected to advance at least to the conference finals. Boston would seem to be in better shape, at least as far as getting into the finals, because rumors of the East’s resurgence have again been seriously exaggerated, or at least put on hold for another season.
2nd-5th Place: Teams in these spots have gotten into the playoffs a little over 90% of the time, so they’re pretty safe. Another good thing for these teams is being at least in the 5 spot has been almost a necessity for any team that has plans for playing in the finals. Only 5 of the 46 finals teams since 1984 were lower than 5th on 11/30. Being here doesn’t guarantee a team a spot in the conference finals. Not by a long shot. But 5th place seems to be the cutoff between the teams that are and aren’t serious contenders on 11/30. It’s still a tough road once the playoffs start, as teams in the 2-5 positions on 11/30 have only a 51% success rate of getting past round 1. There have been a few exceptions, but not many. The 2-5 teams for 2007-08 are Orlando, Phoenix, Detroit, Utah, Toronto, Dallas, Cleveland and New Orleans. The biggest surprise here would probably be the Hornets, but they’re talented enough to belong. The shakiest member of the group would seem to be the Raptors, but even with some recent injuries this team seems to know how to win and shouldn’t be counted out. With LeBron going like Jordan ’89, the Cavs look like the biggest threat to Boston right now. Dallas and Phoenix have both been mildly disappointing, but should get their acts together enough to make a legit challenge to the Spurs. If you go by the historical percentages, one of these teams will fall into the lottery and one will advance to the Finals.
6th-8th Place: These spots are a shaky. Teams here still have a better than 68% shot at making the playoffs, though for 8th place it’s much closer to 50%. After that things get shaky for this group. No team has ever won a championship from this group and only 4 have made it as far as the finals. So teams in the 6-8 spots usually hit the playoffs, but rarely make an impact. This year that group includes Milwaukee, Denver, Indiana, LA Lakers, New Jersey and Golden State. History tells us two of these teams are likely to be headed for the lottery. It could be more this year as both conferences are more competitive than normal. Right now the Lakers, Nuggets and Warriors seem to be for real and look like a good bet to hold onto their positions and even move up. Houston is the only team behind them that seems like a threat. The group from the East looks like they have a shakier hold on their spots. I would expect the Nets to hold their place, but their key players are older, making injuries a concern. The Bucks have been playing better defense, which was a huge step for them. If they keep that going, they should be OK. Indiana has enough to stay competitive, but like the others they have Chicago and Miami lurking behind them.
9th-11th Place: Not a great place to be, as 67% of the teams in these spots have remained in the lottery. Bad numbers, but the percentages aren’t crazy enough that it would be called wishful thinking for these teams to advance. Included in this group are the ’98 Bulls who sat in the 10th spot on 11/30/97 mainly due to an injury to Scottie Pippen and ended up winning the championship. Those Bulls are the only team that was out of the top 8 on 11/30 to even appear in a Finals, let alone win a championship. This season the group is Washington, Houston, Charlotte, LA Clippers, Atlanta and Memphis. Washington and the Clippers are without their best players for a few months. Both teams have been hanging tough, but face an uphill struggle just to stay competitive. Charlotte and Atlanta both look like teams that could go either way at this point. My feeling is the Hawks still need a real PG and perhaps a coaching change before they ascend to the next level. The Bobcats are a little tougher to read. The talent is decent here, but they’re like a lot of Eastern Conference teams that just can’t seem to rise above the crowd. Houston and Memphis have been maddening so far. The Grizzlies promised us a Phoenix-style offense, but instead we get a poor start from Pau Gasol and aging Damon Stoudamire starting ahead of two promising young PGs. The Rockets brought in some help to correct their weaknesses, but are starting basically the same team that lost in round 1 last year. They’re good enough to get things going, but the West is better than most thought so far this year with the emergence of New Orleans and the Lakers and Warriors looking like they’re for real. The Rockets should make the playoffs, but it will be a struggle.
12th-15th Place: A bad place to be. Less than 15% of these teams have pulled themselves out of an early season slump to get into the playoffs. Only one team, the ’04 Heat, have advanced past round 1 after being in 12th place or lower on 11/30. This seasons awful 8 are Philadelphia, Sacramento, New York, Portland, Miami, Seattle, Chicago and Minnesota. Most of these teams were expected to be here. The Knicks will be a mess until they fix their backcourt. The Sixers are still a year or two away. The Timberwolves are a year or five away. Sacramento is a team in need of a fire sale. The Sonics remain a sleeper to crash the playoffs in my view. There’s nothing wrong with Durant, by the way. He’s adjusting to a new position and he should be fine once he’s a little more comfortable. Miami is in sort of a similar situation, where they’re waiting for their franchise player, Wade, to get back to full strength. The Blazers were doomed when Oden went down, but should have a decent future. They remind me some of the ’93 Magic. Because of fate, in Portland’s case Oden’s injury and Orlando’s a lucky ping-pong bounce, both teams will get another high draft pick the year following the drafting of a franchise center. With the 2008 draft looking like a deep one for PGs, the Blazers might even land a player who can play Penny to Oden’s Shaq. In Brandon Roy and Martell Webster they already have a Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott on the roster. Now they just need to keep Brian Hill away from this bunch and they’ll be fine. That leaves what has been easily the most confounding team of the early season, the Chicago Bulls. The Bull’s ugly start has been a double whammy for me personally. Not only did I cook up a cockeyed projection system that predicted 59 wins for this bunch, I’m also a lifelong Bulls fan. After looking at their start, the only thing I can figure is they’re in a massive team-encompassing shooting slump and they should be fine once they start hitting their shots at their career percentages. I don’t buy the suggestion that they’re tuning out Skiles. The defense has still been pretty good, which is an indication of effort. Besides, the majority of the rotation is young players who are playing for big contracts. It’s just not in the interest of such players to mail it in and get the coach fired. Skiles seems to be doing the right things. He’s kept Gordon in the starting lineup and he seems to realize that Tyrus Thomas has to be an important part of the team if they’re going to have success greater than 45-50 wins. I believe this team will get their act together. Not only do they have too much talent not to, a lot of that talent has big contracts riding on their success.
So what teams can be expected to rally and which ones might fade? History doesn’t tell us much there. I looked at teams that rose or fell 6 or more positions from their 11/30 place by the end of the year and there just wasn’t any hard and fast rule to spot such teams. Teams with a new look and a new coach often rally, but changing the lineup has backfired just as often. Teams with a coach who has been underwhelming for 3 or more seasons, a veteran roster and a w-l record trending down over the previous few years are a candidate to fade even with a fast start. That would be the Pistons, Nuggets and Nets. We also have to consider the relative strength and look of the individual conferences. The West seems to have established 9 teams that are serious playoff contenders and 6 that aren’t, though the Sonics still look to me like a team that’s capable of pulling a surprise. Considering history and the way the West looks, I would say at least 7 of the current top 8 are safe, including the top 5. Injuries will likely decide the final 3 spots as much as anything. The East is more fluid. Only 5.5 games separate the 3rd and 15th place team. While historically 3 or fewer teams can be expected to advance from being a lottery team on 11/30 to a playoff team at season’s end, the tightness of the conference suggests there’s no way the Bulls, Heat or any team should be counted out of the playoff picture, despite the historical 9.5% success rate of getting into the playoffs for teams at 14th and 15th places on 11/30. There’s also no reason any East team other than Boston should feel they’re safely in the playoffs, despite history.