Usually when we look at the playoffs, it’s pretty easy to discern the front runners and the also-rans. Each year the question was whether the Spurs would win it all or whether their one nemesis (usually Dallas or Phoenix) could knock them off. This year, however, it’s clear that the West is wide open. The Spurs look like they are on pretty much equal footing with every other Western Conference team. This creates fun and uncertainty. Making predictions, however, is not such a reliable practice because so little separates the Western teams. But our good friend Kyle Wright, the author of “The NBA Top to Bottom” took a crack at it. Kyle, who has used his formula to rank every NBA team of All-Time from first to last, update his rankings for the 2007-08 season. Without further ado, here is how the playoffs go based upon Kyle’s work:
NBA Draft Update: Post NCAA Tournament
Another update on the prospect rankings I’ve been doing each month. This is the first one where I made an adjustment for pace. This had some effect, most notably with the North Carolina and Duke players who were all downgraded some because of the quick pace they play the game at. These ratings are a quick and dirty look at which college players compare most favorably to successful prospects of the past. They’re very objective, except for my top 60 at the bottom. My top 60 won’t match up well with other mocks around the web. I think we agree that Beasley and Rose are excellent prospects and Tyler Hansbrough isn’t. Other than that there are a lot of differences. That makes sense, because what I do is done almost strictly from a stats angle.
Quick Thoughts
1. More Age Limits?: This has been one the more exciting NBA regular seasons that we can remember but back stage things there may have been some interesting changes being proposed on an administrative level. Just a few days ago, David Stern and NCAA president Myles Brand were talking about requiring basketball players to stay in college (or just out of the NBA) until two years after high school graduation. Obviously, the NCAA has every financial interest in keeping players in college as long as possible. The NBA, for its part, probably wants to avoid a reputation as cradle robbers, though Stern has been very astute and kept the matter as strictly an issue of NBA teams being able to have enough information in drafting players (i.e. evaluating a player on an established body of work against a high level of competition). Stern noted that: “[w]e had, in fact, proposed two years the last time but settled for what we thought was gettable at that time [which was a one-year restriction]. I have no doubt that it is very good for the NBA to get a chance to see players develop, see them get collegiate-level coaching, see them play against collegiate-level competition, have them spend the year in college and ultimately see them deal with the pressure of the NCAA tournament or even the Final Four. … That year in college will cause NBA teams to have different judgments with respect to particular players. And that’s good because draft choices are very valuable things.”
Transactions: 3/1-4/3
Atlanta Hawks
3/10 Sign Jeremy Richardson for the remainder of the season
Outside of his first two games back in Atlanta, Richardson has mostly sat on the bench for the Hawks. He did show enough, however, to be the token last guy off the pine, which is actually a very valuable reward for a player of his ilk.
Philly Phlying: Refusing to Tank?
One of the bigger potential ironies of this season is that the Philadelphia 76ers look like a pretty solid playoff team whereas the Denver Nuggets, who took Allen Iverson from Philly because the Sixers were mired in the lottery, are likely going to miss the playoffs. Of course, that’s a bit of a superficial observation as ironies go. The Nuggets are significantly better team than Philly but the Sixers have the fortune in being a far less deep conference. Still, Philly’s run has been impressive. They continue to beat their competitors for the lower seeds on a regular basis and they have many impressive wins over good teams (San Antonio, Phoenix on the road, and last night against Boston) Contrary to what many (including myself) believed, the Sixers have not tapered off at all but in fact have played better and better as the season has progressed.
NCAA Tourney Preview
Last season when I did the tournament preview, one of the theories I suggested for picking the winner was to look for a team with a strong point guard. The idea being that a good PG is the most essential player to NCAA tournament success. Last year things didn’t turn out that way, as a team without a true PG won their 2nd title in-a-row. After actually researching this theory, I discovered I couldn’t have been more wrong. Not that it’s better to have a bad PG, but teams with strong frontcourts have traditionally been a little better at advancing to the final four.