Transactions

Transactions 7/13-7/27

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Charlotte Bobcats

7/17    Re-sign Matt Carroll

7/19    Re-sign Gerald Wallace

Both returnees got six years contracts, Carroll for about $27 million and Wallace at $57 million.  I guess Bobcat fans can’t complaint about failing to spend but, to me, the returns are mixed.  Carroll is a pretty good player but do you need to have him through age 33?  The team is already committed to Jason Richardson, and Wallace at two guard and small forward and Carroll is not a point guard (1.9 assists per 40 minutes in 2006-07).  Raymond Felton is also due a pay raise and a very high pick was invested in Adam Morrison (not to mention Walter Herrmann).  I know Morrison stunk for the most part last year but his top comps as a rookie are not terrible (Glen Rice, Dennis Scott, and Terry Teagle).  It might’ve been better to keep the salary slot open rather than commit to a decent player like Carroll.  For posterity, Carroll’s top comps are Gordan Giricek and Kevin Gamble, neither of whom retained much value after age 26.

Wallace’s deal is bit more sensible.  He’s only 24 and is playing quite well so signing him through 31 isn’t unreasonable and the price is below the current market.  There is a chance that Wallace won’t develop further or he could even regress but the factors indicate that this is a pretty good risk.

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Quick Thoughts

Quick Thoughts

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1.    Donaghy Problems: The Tim Donaghy situation is clearly the NBA’s biggest nightmare on many levels.  But what do we really know about this whole thing yet?  We know that Donaghy had a gambling problem, that he owed the wrong people money, and that there was a possibility that he was calling games in such a way to affect point spreads.  It is not clear how this will all play out.  David Stern has been very sensitive to any accusations of anything that implied that  his product was anything less than 100% pure honest.  So, to have an NBA embroiled in a heavy duty scandal is going to have repercussions.  NBA refs are so heavily scrutinized by the NBA already that it’s hard to know how much more the NBA can do but I’m sure something will be done.  Indeed, Stern already has had a press conference and the matter is on the NBA’s front page right now.  In the end, so long as Donaghy is a lone bad actor, this scandal will blow over leaving a wound but the NBA is not in peril as a whole.  Still, anything that even potentially threatens the value of a billion dollar industry has to be taken very seriously.

2.    FIBA Games: In playing news, the FIBA games will start soon and this will be a welcome break from the Donaghy affair.  In this case, the Western Hemisphere countries will all be converging on Las Vegas to for this Olympic qualifying tournament.  As usual, the United States is the prohibitive favorite.  Here’s a look at some of the recognizable player on each roster…

Argentina: The usual suspects are here.  Former Temple point guard Pepe Sanchez, Luis Scola (who just signed with Houston), Ruben Wolkowisky (former Sonic/Celtic), Carlos Delfino (Toronto), and Federic Kammerichs (former Portland draft pick).  Notably missing are Manu Ginobili, Fabricio Oberto, and Walter Herrmann all opted out of playing.  Both Manu and Oberto were reportedly dissuaded by Gregg Popovich, who felt that the Spurs’ long season meant that they need rest.    Herrmann is also looking to establish himself in the NBA (he finished pretty strong but the Bobcats are now loaded at the small forward slot) and probably does not want to risk injury.

Brazil: Brazil’s roster is a little touch-and-go.  The official roster lists a bunch of NBA heavyweights, Nene Hilario, Leandro Barbosa, and Anderson Varejao.  Barbosa, however, is reportedly going to beg out with elbow pain.  Nene and Varejao are supposedly committed but Varejao doesn’t have a contract yet and Nene has had knee issues so I could see either being pressured out by their agents and or teams.  Rafael Araujo (free agent last with Utah) and Alex Garcia (played with the Hornets in 2003-04) are also on the roster.  For those who remember, Oscar Schmidt is finally gone for good, having retired in 2003 (he’ll be 50 next year!).

Canada: No Steve Nash…no chance.  The current roster does have some quasi-known names: Andy Rautins (Syracuse) and Sheray Thomas (Kentucky).  We also don’t see Jamaal Magloire, who was mentioned as a potential Team Canada player for years.  Here is my All-Time Canadian team:

PG: Steve Nash

SG: Ernie Vandeweghe

SF: Rick Fox

PF: Jamaal Magloire

C:  Bill Wennington (Todd Macculloch’s injuries knock him off the list and Bob Houbregs has an argument as an early player)

Virgin Islands: Since Tim Duncan is only eligible as an American (he’s bound to the first team he chose to play for internationally), Raja Bell and form NBAer David Vanterpool (played with the Bullets back in 2000-01) are the only recognizable names.

Mexico: Again, we don’t expect to the see the NBA guys to play.  In this case, the NBA guy is Ed Najera, who I don’t really remember ever playing for the Mexico in the Olympics.  Horacio Llamas played briefly for Phoenix in the late 1990s.  He was quite big if not graceful.

Panama: Absolutely no big names here.  Ruben Garces played 13 games for Phoenix and Golden State in 2000-01 and Ed Cota (UNC) is eligible to play but that’s about it.

Puerto Rico: They are always a tough in these types of competitions and relish trying to go toe-to-toe with the U.S..  The usual suspects are around: Carlos Arroyo and Daniel Santiago are the only NBA regulars but Rick Apodoca and Elias Ayuso have hit a ton of threes.  Big Peter John Ramos (Washington) has had some NBDL time.  Mainstay Jose Ortiz finally retired this year and is reportedly looking to run for the Puerto Rican senate.

Uruguay: Always near the bottom of the tournament and the only name you might recognize is Esteban Batista who was near the back of the bench for a bad Atlanta team.

Venezuela: The only name of note is Oscar Torres who had some decent moments with the Rockets as a three-point shooter.  Otherwise, the best they got is the memory of Carl Herrera, who is now 40 years old.

Quick Thoughts

Quick Thoughts

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1.    What’re Yi Doing?: The least shocking news of the day was the announcement of Yi Jianlian’s Chinese team the Beijing Tigers that it would not permit him to sign with the Bucks.  According to Beijing’s owner Chen Haitao: “This is not — as media reports have said — because Milwaukee, as a city with very few Chinese people, is not good for Yi’s commercial development.  Rather we want to find a team suitable for Yi’s growth. That’s the root of the problem.”  It’s not quite clear what that means.  Chen supposedly is concerned that Yi won’t play with Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva in tow.

So now we have heard three different rationales of Yi’s refusal to play in Milwaukee:

(1) Not enough of an Asian population

(2) Too small a market

(3) Not enough room for Yi to develop

Do any of these reasons reflect Yi’s camp’s reluctance to come to Milwaukee?  It’s hard to really know but lets play with them and see what at least sounds most plausible.

(1) Not enough of an Asian population

(2) Too small a market

I suppose reasons one and two could theoretically be intertwined.  The fact that the Asian population is smaller seems could imply (a) that Yi might not comfortable being in a small minority or (b) that Yi’s arrival wouldn’t energize the fan base (and, in turn, advertising and marketing opportunities) the way it might elsewhere.  In fact the 2000 Census found that over half of all Asian or Asian Americans in the United States lived in California, New York, and Hawaii, with California leading the way with 19% of this demographic.  Wisconsin, on the other hand, is in the middle of the low end as 1.1% of Wisconsin’s population was Asian (52,000 out of 4.9 million people).  So, the jury is out on both these rationales.

(3)  Not enough room for Yi to develop

This seems a little silly.  Larry Harris and the Bucks have gone out of their way to guarantee Yi playing time that few other draft picks have ever gotten.  It is theoretically possible that Yi’s people have questioned that coaching staff and management will not nurture in develop Yi and that some other coach/team might do better.  Larry Krsytkowiak doesn’t have a reputation either way for developing players and the Bucks have gone through coaches frequently but there are no glaring problems either.

I’m a tad cynical about the whole process.  To get into my thinking you have to accept the premise that Yi is probably being totally controlled by Chinese basketball officials and that they will have an interest in his earnings on some level or are owed some kind of buyout.   I have seen little evidence at all of Chinese concerns for its player’s adjustment or team prior to Yi.  What do we learn for the other three other Chinese NBA players and how they were dealt with?

–Yao Ming: Yao ended up in a pretty large Asian market in Houston.  Interestingly, Chicago and Golden State had the next two picks and probably would’ve been even more ideal destinations.  Memphis had the fourth pick and that could’ve caused some issues.

–Mengke Bateer: I didn’t know this until looking at his Wikipedia page but, the big Mongolian actually had a very interesting career.  Bateer was frequently suspended in the early 1990s for leaving the Chinese National Team to be with his family.  Bateer ended up briefly in Denver, San Antonio, and Toronto and there really was no public concern about his NBA career.

–Wang Zhizhi: Wang did end up on in a large market of Dallas.  But Wang was drafted by Dallas without his even having him declared eligible to be drafted.  This was more a result of Don Nelson ingenuity.  Wang’s Chinese team was unhappy and it took two years of negotiations to get Wang stateside.  Once he was in the NBA, Wang was expected to make the Chinese National Team his priority.  Wang declined to return to China to prepare for the Olympics after the 2001-02 season, instead stating that he wanted to work on improving his NBA prospects.  As a result, Wang was ostracized and wasn’t allowed to play in China for the next four years.  It wasn’t until Wang’s NBA career wound down that he reconciled with the Chinese officials in 2006.

To get a sense of the emotions and or control involved in this whole situation, here are the direct quotes attributed to the Chinese officials and Wang upon reconciliation.  First the Chinese league:

“We have always placed importance on and cherished talent.  The door of the national team has always been open to those excellent athletes willing to pay back the motherland.”

Now Wang’s perspective:

“At the time I was young and immature.  Because of this, I made a very wrong decision.  Through these years of painful reflection and with the help of leaders of the army and the [Chinese Basketball Association], I have deeper recognition of the mistakes I’ve made in the past.”

There is no word as to whether Wang was fitted with some sort electronic monitoring device in conjunction with this deal.

What does this all mean for Yi?  Well we don’t know for sure if the guys handling Yi are the same that handled Wang or Yao but it seems reasonably fair to assume that the Chinese owners view their prospects as chattel to control.  It is possible that Yi has complete autonomy and just truly doesn’t like Milwaukee.  But it is hard for me to view any negotiation with the Chinese league at this point as anything but difficult and that the stances they’ve taken on Yi are probably not related to his best interests–except to the extent that it suits their interests.  In this case, all signs point to the officials wanting Yi in a major market and the census data would seem to back them up on that point too.

2.    China Ball: While were on the subject of Chinese basketball, I thought we’d take a look at the current Chinese League.  This year, Wang’s Chinese team Bayi Army won the title over Yi’s Guandong Southern Tigers.  The league has 16 teams and plays a 30 game schedule.  There are very few imports in the league and it is clear that the international competition trumps the professional leagues.  Despite the 16 teams, there were only a total of about 22 imports by my count, 19 of whom were Americans.

The stats that leaders that I could find were broken down into overall stat leaders and “domestic player” leaders, which probably also reflects the reluctance to import players.  But imports dominated the stats, with the top two scorers (Anthony Myles and Gabe Muoneke) and top five rebounders from the West (Brandon Crump, Babakar Camara, Soumaila Samake, Chris Porter, and Herve Lamizana).  As for locals, 7’1 big man Tang Zhengdong led the league in scoring and Yi was tops in boarding.

Here’s the rundown of familiar names in the league:

–Herve Lamizana: :Lamizana was a potential draft prospect in 2004 and was in camp with the Sixers in 2005.

–Soumalia Samake: Samake is remembered for his time with the Nets, where he was a tall, thin shot blocker with no discernable offensive skills.  He also had a brief stint with the Lakers were he was surprisingly suspended for using perfomance enhancers (insert punch line).

–Chris Porter: Porter was a star for Auburn, as a low budget Charles Barkley.  Porter was fairly good as a rookie for Golden State in 2000-01 but he had legal and personality issues in the summer of 2001 (he was late to camp and had an arrest) and never stuck in the NBA.  As you can imagine, his power style works pretty well internationally.

–Gabe Muoneke: Muoneke never played a game in the NBA but he is remembered for being a monster dunker out of Texas in the late-1990s.  I’m not sure he still has the old hops but his style of play, like Porter, translates well to foreign leagues.  He’s since left China and moved over to Iran of all places.

Transactions

Transactions: 7/2-7/13

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Dallas Mavericks

7/12    Re-sign Devean George

7/13    Re-sign Jerry Stackhouse

The Stackhouse re-signing was an interest decision.  Stack is not young (33) and has had knee issues but he was a key player for the Mavs off the bench last year.  The extension is reported at three years and $18 million.  It’s hard to know where Stackhouse will be in three years.  Last year is difficult for predictive value because it was so uncharacteristic of his career.  Previously, Stack was a high volume shooter and logged a ton of minutes.  The trend now has totally reversed.  Stack played his few minutes (24 per game) but had his highest three-point shooting and also effective shooting percentages.  Stackhouse’s most similar comp at age-32 was Blue Edwards, who totally fell apart at age 33.  The number two comp to Stack was John Starks, who seems much more familiar.  Starks also had just turned into a sixth man and adjusted pretty well.  Starks declined slightly at ages 33 and 34 and was totally unable to contribute by age-35.  I expect Stack to follow a similar pattern.  So, year-three of Stack’s deal is a bit rich but its the price the Mavs are willing to pay for continuity on a team that looked pretty good most of the year and that seems pretty rationale to me.

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Transactions

Transactions 4/14-7/1

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Atlanta Hawks

6/28    Draft Al Horford and Acie Law IV

Horford looks like a nice pick.  He should develop into the power rebounder that the Hawks don’t quite have.  The only question is whether he develops into a solid pro (a la Otis Thorpe) or whether Horford will do some scoring.  The pick renders last year’s high power forward pick, Shelden Williams, as nothing more than a reserve.  Of course, Williams does not look like he was ever as talented as Horford to begin with.

As an aside, Horford’s father was Tito Horford, who came out early from Miami 19 years ago.  Tito, a 7’1 center, was bigger than Al but not nearly the player.  Tito ended up playing mostly internationally for 15 years (he only recently retired).  In 63 games, mostly with the Bucks, Tito blocked some shots but was inept offensively (he shot 33-110 from the field for his career).  For kicks here’s how Al and Tito compared as 21-year old collegiate players:

Player Age21 MPG FG% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG
Tito 1987-88 32.1 0.540 0.579 9.0 1.1 0.4 2.7 3.5
Al 2006-07 27.8 0.608 0.644 9.5 2.2 0.7 1.8 1.8

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NBA Draft

NBA Draft 2007: Combo Guards

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This being a relatively new category of prospects, I don’t have the history to draw on that I do with the 5 traditional positions. While I could give the combo standards to pass, like the 7 RSB40 for SGs, the best thing for now might be to look at how well they do the things that are most important. To me that would be showing the ability to play PG in a pinch, good scoring ability and strong defense. While his numbers were pretty awful overall for a guard prospect last year, Daniel Gibson had all three of these things going for him and he ended up playing a prominent role for a team that went to the finals. In contrast, two players who were rated higher: Quincy Douby by me and Randy Foye by everyone else, both struggled, though Foye came on in April.

So with combos I’m going to keep it simple. I’ll look for players who have shown the ability to score often and efficiently, play some PG and defend. Everything else they do will be considered a bonus. I don’t feel any player in this group is a top notch prospect. Stuckey’s the best and there are a few after him who have a shot, but nothing to get too excited about. Here’s a list of the prospects along with the pace-adjusted numbers that would seem to be important. Keep in mind here that players from small conferences need to be dominating, so don’t go too overboard in comparing the numbers of a Stuckey or a Neal to one of the major conference players:

FGpct 3pct P40 A40 TO40 A/TO S40 rsb40 FTA/FGA PPS
Stuckey, Rodney

0.453

0.267

27.74

6.23

3.82

1.63

2.77

8.38

0.51

1.42
Karl, Coby

0.408

0.370

17.43

4.76

3.69

1.29

0.95

6.47

0.43

1.43
Elliott, Carl

0.406

0.274

15.16

5.64

4.03

1.40

3.04

9.16

0.38

1.18
Stokes, Loren

0.478

0.373

21.98

3.23

2.88

1.12

1.26

7.53

0.50

1.35
Wilson, Jamar

0.454

0.393

21.51

5.52

4.13

1.34

1.39

8.92

0.45

1.35
Dowdell, Zabian

0.462

0.386

20.63

3.69

2.33

1.58

2.47

6.97

0.45

1.39
Raivio, Derek

0.453

0.409

19.49

2.83

2.58

1.10

1.59

4.99

0.37

1.46
Neal, Gary

0.446

0.335

28.60

3.92

2.61

1.50

1.62

6.57

0.37

1.35
Green, Taurean

0.444

0.404

15.83

4.38

3.19

1.37

1.25

4.14

0.48

1.53
Heath, Brandon

0.421

0.352

20.92

3.94

3.42

1.15

2.10

6.34

0.25

1.19
Reynolds, JR

0.429

0.369

21.90

4.36

3.61

1.21

1.04

5.92

0.47

1.39
Funk, Nate

0.478

0.364

21.18

3.58

2.57

1.39

1.48

5.76

0.35

1.38
Curry, JamesOn

0.452

0.411

18.19

3.92

3.27

1.20

1.23

4.88

0.32

1.36
Tatum, Jamaal

0.435

0.408

19.34

3.10

3.02

1.02

1.49

5.28

0.38

1.34
Jackson, Jarrius

0.433

0.436

21.15

1.87

1.47

1.28

1.44

4.94

0.37

1.31

1. Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Washington: Stuckey played PG at Eastern Washington. His numbers were down some his sophomore year, but they were still pretty decent. Mainly down were his shooting percentages. He dropped from .490 and .372 as a freshman, to .453 and .267 as a soph. I suspect there was an injury in there somewhere that affected his outside shot, because he was an ice cold .186 the final 13 games. All his other numbers were pretty similar, except that he was a better passer and he got to the line much more often. I don’t think the low percentages are a huge concern. The fact that he shot .372 on 148 attempts as a freshman and that the .267 as a soph can be explained away by a late season slump says he’ll be OK. That the other numbers stayed strong and even improved in a couple of important areas is more significant to me than the low percentages.

What I want to do with Stuckey is compare him to other recent sophomores and juniors from small and mid-major colleges who scored over 25 P40. Needless to say any guard, point, combo or shooting, who had put up numbers like Stuckey has at EWU at a major college is a top 5 draft pick and likely star. But the lower levels are a different story and since Stuckey plays in the Big Sky, we have to compare him to players from a similar background.

Player Points40 FG pct. 3-point pct. Assists40 Steals40 A/TO
Bonzi Wells

28.3

.465

.240

5.6

3.2

1.0
Courtney Alexander

26.7

.469

.316

3.2

2.0

1.1
Brandon Armstrong

26.6

.447

.384

1.8

1.8

0.7
Marcus Brown

28.2

.503

.306

4.2

3.1

2.0
Tony Dumas

25.2

.489

.354

3.8

1.4

1.1
Bubba Wells

29.1

.549

.436

3.2

1.8

1.1
Luis Flores

25.4

.455

.386

3.0

2.0

0.9
Eddie Benton

25.7

.414

.418

4.9

0.5

1.0
Keydren Clark

27.6

.415

.380

4.4

1.8

1.3
Jason Conley

34.3

.463

.325

2.7

3.1

0.6
Chris Davis

27.5

.479

.336

3.0

1.0

0.9
Henry Domercant

32.0

.443

.394

2.7

1.4

0.8
Ricky Minard

25.3

.505

.392

3.6

2.9

1.1
Rodney Stuckey

27.7

.453

.267

6.2

2.8

1.6

If I remember right, some of these players, like Bubba Wells, Jason Conley and Henry Domercant were very much the SF types in college, so comps to them may not be appropriate. Stuckey is definitely a guard. The only player here who experienced any sort of NBA success is Bonzi Wells. Where Stuckey compares to Bonzi is they’re the only 2 with over 5 A40 and a 3-point pct. under .300. Since I’ve already determined Stuckey’s .267 is a fluke, there’s no real close comp on the board. Stuckey is the best passer on the board and one of the better ballhawks. Considering that Stuckey’s the only player here who played PG and his shooting percentages were way down as a soph and probably are better than he showed, I feel comfortable saying that Stuckey is a better prospect at this early point in his career than any player here other than Bonzi Wells. But that doesn’t make him a great prospect. The small college hurdle has historically been a huge thing to get over. Stuckey has gotten noticed and is working out for teams, which is a huge part of it, but he still has a ways to go. I’d feel a little more comfortable about predicting great success for him if he didn’t rebound like a guard. He rebounds well enough that it’s not a problem and it’s not important for a guard to be a great rebounder to begin with, but a 6’5” guard prospect from a small conference needs to dominate that conference in as many ways as possible to make himself into the type of player who can make the jump. If he pulled down a couple more rebounds per game to go with his dominant numbers in steals and scoring, I’d feel better about touting him as a strong prospect.

That small misgiving aside, Stuckey should at the very least become a decent NBA player. He looks like he’s capable of playing either backcourt position, he has shown the ability to score, pass and defend well and he has good size. There could be some transition problems early in his career to the pro game, as he’ll be going from playing a Kobe-LeBron type of role at a much lower level to playing a supporting role where he may not be asked to score much at all. Becaue of this there may be a transition period, so don’t figure on seeing too much of Stuckey until later in 2008. Eventually he’ll probably be good enough to start as either a PG or SG. It could take a season or two to figure out what his best position actually is. He’s a good prospect, easily the best combo this year, but he’ll take some time.

2. Zabian Dowdell, Virginia Tech: Dowdell got his scoring and FG pct. up to the point where he became a pretty decent prospect as a senior. He didn’t play PG, but has averaged over 3 APG for 2 seasons now and his A/TO as a senior was a respectable 1.58, so he has done OK while running the offense part-time. One thing he did as a senior that improved his production and efficiency was he took fewer 3-pointers and took the ball inside more often, with great success. He got to the line a couple more times per game and improved his PPS from 1.17 as a junior to a strong 1.39. Defensively, he’s been over 2 SPG for a couple of seasons now.

All his numbers look good enough, if not spectacular. The RSB40 is at 6.97, which is slightly below the magic number of 7 that is there for SGs, but I’m not sure if that applies for combos. Being around 6.5 didn’t hinder Daniel Gibson much, so for now I’m going to say it isn’t a big deal. Right now the only thing that concerns me is that he looked like a prospect for the first time his senior year. That would be more of a problem if a hot streak had simply upped his FG pct. The increase in FG pct. happened, but it was due to a change in his game where he became more of a penetrator and less of a gunner, so he deserves credit for that.

Dowdell gets a yes on all 3 counts. He can score, play some PG and defend. His numbers aren’t as strong as Stuckey’s, but they’re good enough. I feel he’ll make a roster and has a chance to become a rotation regular.

3. Brandon Heath, San Diego State: Brandon Heath may or may not be a better scorer than he shows. He pumps in a lot of points, but isn’t very efficient. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, it’s better for a guard to score often than efficiently, so this should be looked at as a positive. What I wonder about is Heath launched an awful lot of 3-pointers, almost 8 per game, for a guy who hit only .352. Considering he hit .480 on 2-pointers and is a solid foul shooter, one would think taking it inside more would be a smart move. I don’t like a player who doesn’t play smart, but I say this without much knowledge of how the Aztecs run their offense. The fact that he showed he can score from both inside and outside with reasonable efficiency should be considered a positive. As for the passing, he gets a lot of assists, but his ratio has hovered around 1, because of a high number of TOs. It’s a definite concern and probably precludes him from playing much more than emergency PG in the pros. As a defender he looks good. He gets a lot of steals and he’s more athletic than most prospects.

He’s in the 2nd round mix. He does the 3 things reasonably well. I don’t like him as much as Dowdell, because he isn’t as efficient as a scorer, but that could also be me going overboard with the importance of efficiency in college players. The fact that Brandon Heath does scoring, defense and PG well enough suggests there’s a place for him in the NBA.

4. Coby Karl, Boise State: Karl’s scoring was down some his senior season in both frequency and efficiency. His P40 was at 17.4 and his FG pct. was .408. Normally such numbers would preclude a prospect from even being considered. In Karl’s case it can be forgiven some, because the Broncos added a couple of more scorers to the roster this year in Reggie Larry and Matt Nelson and played a more balanced offense. Since he had been at 21.1 and .427 as a junior, he’s proven he can hit the necessary scoring levels. Karl was also going through cancer treatment during the season and that can’t be good for a player’s production.

Like many of the players here, Karl does two of the three combo things well, passing and scoring. He was the Bronco’s main passer the last two seasons, averaging over 4 APG and has had a stellar PPS of over 1.40 for 3 consecutive seasons. His defense looks average at best. He averages less than a steal per game for his career, but he does block a lot of shots for a guard. Coby Karl is good enough that he’ll be in the hunt for a final roster spot.

5. Nate Funk, Creighton: Funk’s numbers were different from his great junior season of 2 years ago. I wouldn’t necessarily say down, even though he wasn’t as productive overall. He did look more like a guard and less like a 6’3” guy playing some guard and some forward. A late season slump dropped his 3-point pct. down to .364, but with 2 seasons well over .400, I think it’s safe to say this part of his game is solid. I do worry some about his defense. His 1.2 SPG was his career high and some opposing guards, Matt Lojeski and Marcellus Kemp, torched Creighton pretty good. Funk is a great college scorer, who has some PG ability and experience, but he looks a little weak on defense. I guess two out of three ain’t bad. Funk’s best bet would seem to be getting his shot back to the mid-.400 range he was in as a soph and junior. I doubt he has enough to make it if he’s not a deadly gunner.

6. Jamaal Tatum, Southern Illinois: Tatum is a defender first and foremost. He gave a strong Kansas backcourt fits in a near-upset in the tournament with his aggressive, in-your-face defensive style. Offensively he was weak, but got things going enough as a senior, getting his percentages to .435 and .408. He’s not a great offensive player and won’t even be a good one as a pro, but he does enough. His passing abilities are along the same, just-good-enough-to-get-by line. Tatum’s ticket is defense. His high end is becoming a Randy Brown type. That’s a player who harasses, wears down and is a general pain in the ass for the opposing PG for 10-15 minutes per game. He’s the player who will check into a game in the closing minutes for defensive purposes then come back out when his team gets the ball back.

7. Derek Raivio, Gonzaga: Raivio bounced back from a poor junior year with his best season as a scorer. He played SG, but had been the PG his sophomore year. He posted a respectable 1.46 A/TO, so this is where he fits. Offensively he had been mostly a gunner, taking 64% of his FGAs from behind the arc his first 3 seasons. As a senior that number dropped below 50%, as he took on a larger offensive load. He also was able to get his efficiency back to the impressive levels of his freshman and sophomore seasons. The most impressive thing about him is his ability to hit free throws. He hit 96% as a senior, after being over 90% the previous 2 seasons. From watching him, he’ll never be a shut down defender, but he has averaged over 1.5 SPG for 3 consecutive seasons, which has to be worth something. Raivio is a gunner and a good one. Other than his junior season when he went through a slump, his efficiency has been great. It didn’t skip a beat when he stepped up his scoring as a senior. The competition is tough at the pro level, but as good a shooter as Raivio is, I think he can probably find a spot.

8. Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech: Jackson didn’t play much PG as a senior, averaging on 1.8 APG. I still think this is the place for him though. He was the PG as a sophomore, but last year Martin Zeno took over the bulk of the playmaking duties and by the time Jackson was a senior he seemed to be concentrating on scoring. He did keep his A/TO above 1 though and that’s impressive. Jackson could score a variety of ways in college. He was consistently around 44-45% from behind the arc and he knew how to get to the line. He wasn’t wildly efficient, but his numbers were good enough.

He seems to be slipping as a prospect, because I haven’t seen his name pop up in any of the camp reports. I don’t follow those things real close, but I like to keep tabs. As a prospect he’s not much more than a gunner, but considering he has some PG abilities, plays decent defense, rarely turns the ball over and has been a consistently terrific 3-point shooter, I would think there’s a place for him somewhere. No immediate impact, but he could surface somewhere down the line.

9. JamesOn Curry, Oklahoma State: Curry was a decent enough scorer, averaging .411 from behind the arc and .452 over all. His per game numbers look a little better than they are, because he played 37 minutes per game. While his 17.3 PPG looks good, the P40 of 18.2 isn’t all that impressive. As for the other important combo things, Curry is good enough to play some PG, but certainly not full-time. He was the PG at OSU, but was always more of a scorer than a passer. Defensively he looks weak. He doesn’t do any of the 3 things a good defender needs to do. I just don’t see that Curry offers enough to make it. He’s a good scorer, but not good enough that his weak defensive game can be ignored.

10. Carl Elliott, George Washington: Elliott is one of the better defenders around. He’s big and has averaged over 2 SPG all four college seasons. He’s run the point for the Colonials and he has hit a high of .469 on FGs and .438 on 3-pointers. The problem is he didn’t do much scoring as a senior: 12.9 PPG, .406 and .275. Going into the season it looked like the perfect time for him to step up and make himself a prospect. That he has had moments of efficiency as a scorer is good. That he struggled when asked to be the team’s main scorer isn’t so good.

That leaves a defensive specialist. He looks like he could be a good one too. At 6’4” 220, he would seem to have the size to cover most any perimeter player and some SFs, though quickness could become an issue since he’s pretty big. He’s one of the better ballhawks in college and is a decent passer, but probably only an emergency PG. If he isn’t asked to do too much offensively, he could probably hit a decent percentage of open treys. That combined with what looks potentially great defense makes him a decent candidate to find a role somewhere. He’s not anywhere on the radar right now, so his road will be a little longer than most.

11. Taurean Green, Florida: Green looks somewhat like a player who landed in the right place at the right time. His numbers look pretty good, at least efficiency-wise. He got his FG pct. up to .444 and the 3-point mark to .404. What aided the improvement is he wasn’t asked to run the offense as much as he did in the past, just do his job within it. Florida’s big 3 all helped out in the playmaking and this helped Green become a better scorer and a better prospect.

This is a good thing, because he’s a more productive player. But it’s not such a good thing for his prospect status, because at his size he probably needs to play PG and he wasn’t all that impressive as more of a pure PG his first two seasons. As a soph he was a poor scorer, hitting only .366 on FGs. This year, with fewer PG responsibilities, he was a pretty good shooter, but still only scored 13.3 PPG. I know the team was full of great scorers and it’s a different situation than most college teams, but the fact that his only impressive scoring year came as a role player doesn’t answer the question of whether or not he could have been a averaged close to 20 PPG while hitting close to 45% of his shots if he were in a different situation. Nor has he proven he’s much of a college PG.

I have trouble believing he can be that player. I don’t see him as the scorer most of these players are and he hasn’t proven he’s a standout defender either. He’s enough of a passer to handle the combo, but doesn’t look like he could be a pure PG. For Green to make it, he’s going to have to get himself into the right place at the right time, again.

12. JR Reynolds, Virginia: Reynolds played SG at Virginia, but like Dowdell he handled some of the distributing duties and posted a solid A/TO of 1.21 while playing next to another combo, Sean Singletary. The most impressive thing about Reynolds is he can be an explosive scorer. He dropped 40 on Wake Forest and averaged 27 in 2 tournament games. Like his teammate Singletary, he was able to get to the line at a higher rate this past year, which improved his efficiency to an impressive 1.39 PPS. That said, his percentages are on the low side. The .429 and .369 he posted this past season as a senior were the highest since his freshman year, when he averaged only 9.4 PPG. His .369 on treys drops to .336, if you take out consecutive games in late January when he was a combined 11-16. He also averages less than 1 SPG, which suggests his defense may not be up to what’s needed.

While Reynolds had some good moments as a senior, the entire package he offers isn’t all that impressive. His scoring abilities were impressive at times, but overall erratic. That’s fine for a freshman or sophomore, but not so good for a 4th-year senior. His defensive numbers are unimpressive and he wasn’t the lead PG. While he might latch on in the right situation, I can’t see him making a huge impact. I’d rather take my chances with one of the small college guys, Stokes or Wilson. With them there’s at least a little intrigue. With Reynolds I can pretty much say he won’t make it.

13. Jamar Wilson, Albany: Wilson led his Albany team to a couple of NCAA tournament appearances. He led the Danes in scoring rebounding and assists. He has PG size at 6’1”, but was more of a scorer than a distributor in college. His biggest problem as a PG was TOs. Over the past 3 seasons his A/TO improved from 0.94 to 1.07 and 1.34 this past year as a senior. Improvement is good, but getting an A/TO up to 1.34, hardly signals the next John Stockton. He’s a great scorer who dominated the American East at a level that suggests he can make the leap. His FG pct. has been at .454 for 2 consecutive seasons. He gets to the line better than most guards, which makes him a much more efficient scorer than the average guard. Defensively his numbers aren’t great, but his high number of rebounds for a 6’1” player and his dominant scoring suggests he has the necessary athleticism.

Wilson’s battle to make the NBA will be tough. I’d like him a lot better if he had shot around 45% from behind the arc rather than the 39% he hit. But he can score, he can play some PG and he appears athletic enough to play decent defense. Those are the 3 important combo skills and if he keeps flashing them in the minor leagues, he could eventually get a call.

14. Gary Neal, Towson: For Neal it might be a good idea to refer to the table in the Stuckey comment and plug in his numbers.  Neal is another small college scoring machine. His numbers are: 28.6 P40, .446, .335, 3.9 A40, 1.6 S40 and 1.50 A/TO. I should note that Neal did this as a senior and the others listed are sophomores and juniors. He looks more in the Domercant mold than anything. It hurts him that he only hit .335 on treys and that he didn’t dominate in a small conference in anything other than scoring. He’s a long shot. I mention him because he can score and has some distributing abilities. Gary Neal was a great college player, but looks like one of those players who will be forgotten everywhere except the Towson Tigers record book.

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