Playoff Thoughts

NBA Finals 2022-23 Wrap Up: Ranking Jokic

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The Nuggets impressive post season run really cements Nikola Jokic in the conversation as an all-time great.  Sure, Jokic was a Hall of Famer even before the 2022-23 season started but there is nothing like a title to get consensus from the guys in the back row.  Let’s delve into a few details of the title run, FAQ style…

How impressive was Denver’s run?

Denver went 16-4 and was clearly dominant this post season.  Only two other teams in the last two decades have won a title with only four playoff losses.  Yet when you dig a little deeper, it looks like Denver had as easy a run as any recent title team.  Here are the won-loss records and SRS of the Nuggets playoff opponents:

Round 1: Minnesota, 42-40, -0.22 SRS

Round 2: Phoenix, 45-37, 2.08 SRS

WCF: L.A. Lakers, 43-39, 0.43 SRS

Finals: Miami, 44-38, -0.13 SRS

Of course, it’s not that simple.  The Suns got Kevin Durant (8-0 in his games, 37-37 without him), the Lakers remade their team at the deadline (19-9 after the Russell Westbrook trade), and the Heat went on a really weird hot streak. Independent of the trades, there is also a general sense that most teams are giving away regular season games in the name of load management.  Therefore, maybe won-loss records in the modern era (ie since 2020) don’t matter in assessing the strength of playoff foes?

Let’s compare the Nuggets’ playoff path with that of the other title teams of the post-Warriors dynasty to see if they had it any easier on paper:

2019-20 Lakers (records pro-rated to 82-game season)

Round 1: Portland, 39-43, -0.61 SRS

Round 2: Houston, 50-32, 3.13 SRS

WCF: Denver, 52-30, 2.35 SRS

Finals: Miami, 49-33, 2.59 SRS

Bubble or not, those Lakers were good and played moderately good teams. Stats-wise, Houston and Denver were on par with the 2022-23 Nuggets opponents and the 2019-20 version of the Heat was slightly better than this year’s version.  Looking a little deeper, the Rockets were very good but the aforementioned Westbrook was hurt, making that series easier for the Lakers.  The 2019-20 Nuggets were better than their record, as Jamal Murray was hitting another level that playoffs. Putting all these facts together, my subjective sense is that the Lakers’ run was close to as easy as the Denver 2022-23 run.

2020-21 Bucks (records pro-rated to 82-game season)

Round 1: Miami, 46-36, -0.06 SRS

Round 2: Brooklyn, 55-27, 4.24 SRS

ECF: Atlanta, 47-35, 2.14 SRS

Finals: Phoenix, 58-24, 5.67 SRS

The Bucks had some luck (the Nets’ injuries, KD’s toe being over the line, and Philly melting down against Atlanta) but this was a nice impressive run as the Nets and Suns were both title-worthy teams.

2021-22 Warriors

Round 1: Denver, 48-34, 2.15 SRS

Round 2: Memphis, 56-26, 5.37 SRS

WCF: Dallas, 52-30, 3.12 SRS

Finals: Boston, 51-31, 7.02 SRS

Last year’s Warriors ran a serious gauntlet.  They did dodge the top seeded Suns but GS didn’t exactly get a reprieve with the Luka Doncic/Jalen Brunson Mavs.  This was a legitimately difficult title chase and makes Denver’s 2022-23 run look quite easy by comparison. Golden State played three legit title contenders and the Grizz and Celtics were probably the best teams on paper. 

In all, Denver had a significantly easier path by the numbers and subjective factors but they are worthy champs based on how dominant they were against the teams they played.  We will see where the age of parity takes us and whether regular season dominance no longer correlates as much with post season success.  I suspect regular season dominance will still be important to most teams and that 2022-23 was particularly anomalous.

Where does Jokic rank on the all-time centers list?

This is a difficult and inherently subjective question.  Jokic basically plays point center and even the great passing centers of the past generations didn’t pass the way he does in initiating a motion offense.  Wilt Chamberlain passed more from the stationary post and would hand off into teammates bread baskets (which was also quite impressive).  Jokic also is the first truly great three-point shooter, something that none of the other greats did (or were expected to do). 

On the other hand, Jokic is the only all-time list who has little defensive presence and is vulnerable to the pick-and-roll.  Putting aside Wilt & Russell, more recent greats were excellent in both these areas (except Shaq who was toasted regularly in the pick-and-roll by the late 1990s Stockton-Malone tandem).

It’s also very early to compare career value to centers who were great for 10-15 years.  So, it’s really unfair to peg a precise value on Jokic due to his unique skillset, the early phase of his career, and the different contexts in which these centers put up their numbers.  Having said all that, it’s reasonable to conclude that, as a player with ridiculous offensive stats, a title win, and two MVPs, Jokic has surpassed the outer circle of the great centers. 

Let’s compare him to the inner circle.  Your mileage may vary, ESPN writers voted on this point in 2016 and came up with the following list:

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

2. Wilt Chamberlain

3. Bill Russell

4. Shaquille O’Neal

5. Hakeem Olajuwon

6. Moses Malone

7. David Robinson

8. Patrick Ewing

9. George Mikan

10. Bill Walton

It’s hard to assess a list unless you define the criteria.  Are we measuring dominance relative to peers? Are we taking players at their peak?  Are we magically bringing the players to play in the 2022-23 NBA?  Without articulating a measure, voters usually meld several factors for an overall “feel” of the players being ranked.  Without guidance, this is an inherently unsatisfying exercise but still let’s do it anyway.

We can safely put Jokic ahead of Walton who barely played (but was great for about two years before his feet went).  Also, Mikan’s era is so far removed from the modern NBA that he’s not worth assessing (though if the criteria was dominance relative to era, Big George was as good as almost anyone).

That takes Jokic to the Ewing/Robinson/Moses level.  Ewing was never too close to an MVP as Jokic has been and, though Ewing had a great career, he is clearly a level below the Joker by virtue of this fact.  Robinson and Moses are closer calls and it’s hard to put Jokic ahead of them unless he maintains this level of dominance for another few years.  If Jokic can play this well for another three years or so, he could vault into the inner sanctum.  At worst, Jokic is the eighth best modern center ever right now (yes, Joel Embiid is also creeping up the list too but is behind Jokic at this point).

Okay, so where does Jokic rank against this crew through the same age?

Ugh I was hoping you wouldn’t ask that.  The era differences complicate the comps but here are the advanced stats of this group through age-27:

Regular Season

Jokic: 596 games, 27.7 PER, .247 WS48, 9.4 BPM

Kareem: 467 games, 26.7 PER, .276 WS48, 7.6 BPM (partial stats)

Wilt: 391 games, 30.3 PER, .272 WS48 (no BPM available)

Hakeem: 468 games, 23.6 PER, .182 WS48, 4.6 BPM

Shaq: 534 games, 27.9 PER, .224 WS48, 6.1 BPM

Russell: 415 games, 20.2 PER, .201 WS48 (no BPM available)

Ewing: 357 games, 21.8 PER, .149 WS48, 3.5 BPM

Moses: 670 games, 23.1 PER, .186 WS48, 2.4 BPM

Robinson: 314 games, 26.3 PER, .239 WS48, 7.7 BPM

Walton: 223 games, 22.1 PER, .175 WS48, 7.7 BPM

Playoff Stats

Jokic: 68 games, 29.0 PER, .236 WS48, 10.4 BPM

Kareem: 57 games, 25.5 PER, .236 WS48 (no BPM available)

Wilt: 36 games, 29.3 PER, .274 WS48 (no BPM available)

Hakeem: 47 games, 26.2 PER, .224 WS48, 7.2 BPM

Shaq: 89 games, 28.5 PER, .192 WS48, 6.8 BPM

Russell: 67 games, 21.2 PER, .210 WS48 (no BPM available)

Ewing: 23 games, 22.2 PER, .142 WS48, 3.9 BPM

Moses: 64 game, 23.0 PER, .191 WS48, 3.9 BPM

Robinson: 24 games, 23.5 PER, .201 WS48, 6.7 BPM

Walton: 21 games, 20.2 PER, .166 WS48, 6.3 BPM

Advanced stats are a bit buggy and the data is limited for the pre-1973 players.  Also, DBPM weirdly rates Jokic as a top defender when he is objectively not great in that area.  Even with all those caveats, Jokic rates about as good as any NBA center to ever play through age-27.  Assuming he maintains a normal aging pattern, he will plausibly be in the top tier by the end of his career, if not sooner.

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NBA Finals Preview 2022-23

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Another year, another new Finals match up.  The Nuggets against the Heat feels broadly like the 1998-99 Finals redux, where the top seeded Spurs, led by emerging star Tim Duncan played an eight seeded Knicks team that was clearly better than its low seed and featured Latrell Sprewell and Marcus Camby.   In this case, the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic play the role of the Spurs and Duncan.  Like the Spurs, Denver has a great young big man hoping to lead his ABA team to a first NBA title.  Back in 1999, the Spurs handled the Knicks relatively easily.  Do the Heat have a better shot?  Let’s take a peak…

How is Miami doing this?

Obviously, the emergence of “Playoff Jimmy Butler” is the starting point, as he has bumped up his scoring and minutes quite a bit (22.9 ppg in 33.4 mpg in the regular season and 28.5 ppg in 39.4 mpg).  While having Butler playing bigger minutes has obviously helped, he actually has not shot better or been appreciably better overall.  Yes, he’s been transcendent a few times in the playoffs but, on a whole, his TS% and advanced stats are lower than they were in the regular season and lower than his even more impressive 2021-22 playoffs.  So, Butler playing huge minutes helps but that’s not nearly the whole story.

During the regular season, Miami was a slow paced (96.3, 29th in NBA) and bad offensive team (113.0, 25th in NBA).  Miami has bumped up its offensive rating to 116.3 on an even slower pace (95.5).  The Heat’s three-point shooting has been the driving force in improving the offense (.344% in the regular season but is up to .390% so far in the playoffs).

Miami has shot fewer threes but they are making them.  Here’s a comparison of how some of their key players have done in the regular season and playoffs from three:

PlayerReg. SeasonPlayoffs
Max Strus0.3510.359
Duncan Robinson0.3710.446
Kyle Lowry0.3450.355
Gabe Vincent0.3340.391
Kevin Love0.2970.368
Caleb Martin0.3560.438
Jimmy Butler0.3510.356

Vincent and Martin have gone from meh three-point shooters to really good on higher volume.  The stats don’t show it but a lot of their threes have been difficult and/or off the dribble.  Robinson has shot this well in the past. He’s just getting a chance to play due to Tyler Herro’s wrist injury.  In all, Miami’s hot shooting feels a little anomalous. 

Martin’s great play isn’t just from three, he’s shooting .714% from two as well (compared to .545% in the regular season).  Granted he only takes about four two-pointers a game but that is still an insanely high percentage for a perimeter player.   He literally hasn’t missed a shot in the playoffs from 10-16 feet and is shooting .786% on long twos.  Put it all together and here are Martin’s advanced stats in the regular season and playoffs:

Regular Season: 11.4 PER, .086 WS48, -1.2 BPM, 0.4 VORP

Playoffs: 17.4 PER, .178 WS48, 3.8 BPM, 0.8 VORP

We all know Martin has been great but these stats really highlight just how great.  For perspective, Martin’s BPM compares with that of Jalen Brunson or Lauri Markkanen.  Adding an All-Star level player out of nowhere for the playoffs helps.

Can Miami stop Jokic?

Of course not.  Okay so can they slow him down at all?  It’s nice to see the overall perception of Jokic match how dominant he’s been via advanced stats.  Jokic has been Wilt-like, leading the NBA in PER, WS, WS48, BPM, and VORP each of the last three seasons.  That’s fairly incredible, even if we acknowledge that advanced stats are a bit buggy and don’t seem to properly account for his defensive shortcomings (he regularly leads the league in DBPM, which is quite a suspect assessment).

Miami has been effective using a zone defense for much of the playoffs but you wonder whether zone is a great way to handle Jokic.  You also wonder whether Bam Adebayo has the size to check Jokic under any defensive theory.  Per Basketball-Reference, Jokic is 10-2 against Bam for their career and has dominated him:

PlayerGWLGSMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
Nikola Jokić121021234.78.615.60.5511.43.10.4593.64.30.8272.39.311.66.81.10.82.73.222.2
Bam Adebayo12210926.84.810.60.45700.103.85.30.7142.14.86.92.80.90.62.41.813.4

Limiting the sample size to this year, Denver is 2-0 against Miami and won each game by four and five points.  Jokic was quite dominant and even won the first game without Jamal Murray and Miami having most of its crew available.  Miami played Bam mostly at center but used deep bench big Orlando Robinson quite a bit out of necessity.  This time, Miami can throw Cody Zeller at Jokic a bit but that also seems like a tough match up for Miami. 

In short, the Heat’s best plan is to make Jokic work on defense and throw a lot of guys at him on the other end.  This will be tough, especially when you consider how big the rest of the Denver front line is with Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr.

Let’s not forget “Playoff Jamal Murray”

For all the talk of Martin’s postseason stats, Murray has stepped it up similarly:

-Regular Season: 32.8 mpg, 20.0 ppg, .494 2FG%, .398 3FG%

-Post Season: 38.9 mpg, 29.9 ppg, .552 2FG%, .474 3FG%

Murray has shot well from every quadrant of the court in the postseason but his mid-range chops have been really impressive (.563%) and he’s been making tough contested shots.  The only point guard that Miami has faced this postseason with a similar game was Brunson, who gave Miami some real trouble.

Can Denver overcome history?

Denver is a fairly average defensive team, ranking 15th in the NBA in the regular season.  If they win a title, they will have worst defensive ranking for a title team since the 2000-01 Lakers, who ranked 21st in defense but were on cruise control before turning it on for the playoffs (2000-01 was the middle season of the Lakers’ threepeat and they were 1st and 7th in defense the other two title years).  Outside of that anomalous team, an average defensive team has basically never won a title before.

Prediction

Miami has had a great run and they are legitimately more of a 50-win team than the eight seed they ended up with but I think the size of Denver and Jokic is just too much, particularly with Murray playing so well.  The Heat are not a pushover but the incredible run ends.  Denver wins 4-2.

Playoff Thoughts

Playoff Quick Thoughts

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So far, the playoffs have been as unpredictable as any, including the Bubble.  We had a sense that the regular season results would be less predictive than usual but seeing Milwaukee get surprisingly dispatched relatively easily by an eight seed Heat team was surprising to say the least.  Let’s run through some interesting questions from the playoffs so far FAQ-style.

How bad was the Bucks’ loss?

Any time a one seed loses to an eight seed, the one seed is not covered in glory.  Nevertheless, I’m inclined to cut Milwaukee some slack.  Jimmy Butler scored nearly 38 points per game and the poorly timed Giannis Antetokounmpo injury didn’t help either.  An argument could be made that the Bucks should have deviated from their normal defense to double Butler more but the Heat supporting cast shot incredibly well from three also (.450% as a team and Duncan Robinson was an incredible 14-19).  The loss was a perfect storm and shouldn’t be taken as a grand indictment of the Bucks as a team.

What does a loss to an eight seed do to the upset favorite?

Just for a little perspective, here’s how past one seed losers did in the aftermath of their disappointments:

-1993-94 Sonics:  After the tough upset against Dikembe Mutombo and the Nuggets, Seattle went 57-25 and post the best SRS (7.91) but were upset by the Nick Van Exel Lakers (of “Nick at Night” fame).  Seattle didn’t throw in the towel (though they did seriously consider trading Shawn Kemp) and went 64-18 and made the Finals in 1995-96 and were a title contender through 1998.

-1998-99 Heat: This doesn’t even count as an upset as they lost to a 27-23 Knicks team during the lockout season when everything was a bit screwy.  The Heat brought the same team back in 1999-00 and went 52-30 but lost to New York (again) in the second round, blowing Game 7 at home.  The team remained competitive until a kidney ailment greatly reduced Alonzo Mourning’s effectiveness in 2000.

-2006-07 Mavericks:  The Mavs were upset by the athletic Baron Davis Warriors, who somehow were able to use smaller players to curtail Dirk Nowitzki.  Dallas retooled a bit by trading for an older Jason Kidd and won 50+ games the next four years.  The Mavs playoff success was varied during that span but they did ultimately win the title in 2010-11.

-2010-11 Spurs:  Yes, the Tim Duncan Spurs were whipped by an eight seed Grizzlies without any real excuses.  The only plausible excuse was that the Grizzlies were much better than everyone realized and had a nice run over the next five years.  As for the Spurs, the playoff malaise was actually longer than just 2011.  Since losing in the 2008 Western Conference Finals, the Spurs lost in the first round two times  (including the 2011 upset) and were swept the one time they made the second round.  The Spurs, however, did not panic and kept the core together (and drafted Kawhi Leonard).  The Spurs then had one of their best runs from 2012 through to 2014, going to the WCF or NBA each season (winning a title 2014 and coming a Ray Allen shot away from a second title in 2013).

-2011-12 Bulls:  This is a sad example because the title contender Bulls were sunk by a knee injury to Derrick Rose during Game 1 of the series against the eight seed 76ers.  Without Rose, Chicago was just okay and they lost to Philly.  Rose was never the same player again.  They remained a 45-50 win team the next three seasons but were not a real contender. 

The moral of the story is that teams should not panic only about one bad playoff result.  Yes, each context is a bit different but star power matters and there is no need to overreact to a single playoff upset (or even consecutive upsets).  Milwaukee may need to adjust around the margins but the are obviously a contender as long as Giannis is healthy and near his peak.

A look back at Jimmy and the summer of 2019 free agents

Hindsight is 20/20 but it’s clear now that the Heat did the best of all the big transactions of that historic summer of 2019.  The Nets and Clippers made rational moves getting Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George but the future is always uncertain (hell, Miami isn’t perfect either, as evidenced by Kyle Lowry signing).  Butler has stayed healthier than the others and led his team to serious playoff success.  By the numbers, here are the stats for each of the players since the 2019 moves:

Jimmy Butler: 231 games, 33.6 mpg, 21.5 ppg, .609 TS%, 6.3 rpg, 5.9 apg, 25.3 PER, .246 WS48, 7.1 BPM, 17.8 VORP

Kevin Durant: 134 games, 35.6 mpg, 28.8 ppg, .656 TS%, 7.1 rpg, 5.7 apg, 25.9 PER, .199 WS48, 7.2 BPM, 11.3 VORP

Paul George: 189 games, 33.1 mpg, 23.2 ppg, .581 TS%, 6.3 rpg, 4.9 apg, 20.0 PER, .122 WS48, 3.8 BM, 9.2 VORP

Kyrie Irving: 163 games, 36.0 mpg, 27.1 ppg, .607 TS%, 4.9 rpg, 5.8 apg, 23.3 PER, .172 WS48, 4.7 BPM, 10.0 VORP

Kawhi Leonard: 159 games, 33.3 mpg, 25.3 ppg, .610 TS%, 6.7 rpg, 4.7 apg, 25.6 PER, .219 WS48, 7.4 BPM, 12.8 VORP

Butler has basically played at the same level as KD and Kawhi but has played 70 to 100 games more.  That’s impressive but it gets even better when we add in playoff stats (not including today’s New York/Miami game):

Jimmy Butler: 47 games, 37.8 mpg, 25.1 ppg, .602 TS%, 6.8 rpg, 5.5 apg, 25.8 PER, .223 WS48, 4.4 VORP

Kevin Durant: 22 games, 41.6 mpg, 31.2 ppg, .623 TS%, 8.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, 23.2 PER, .155 WS48, 1.9 VORP

Paul George: 32 games, 39.2 mpg, 24.2 ppg, .563 TS%, 8.2 rpg, 4.7 apg, 18.0 PER, .096 WS48, 1.2 VORP

Kyrie Irving: 13 games, 38.1 mpg, 22.2 ppg, .584 TS%, 5.6 rpg, 4.0 apg, 19.7 PER, .147 WS48, 0.7 VORP

Kawhi Leonard: 26 games, 39.3 mpg, 29.6 ppg, .634 TS%, 8.4 rpg, 5.1 apg, 29.1 PER, .249 WS48, 3.2 VORP

Butler has racked the most games and led his team to, at least, the Conference Finals twice (and a third ECF appearance looks quite possible).  He’s done so with virtual no drop off in playoff performance, which is quite rare (KD, PG13, and Kyrie drop to varying degrees).  Kawhi, somehow, got better in the playoffs but has missed too much time to catch Butler’s cumulative VORP.  In other words, Butler has been as good as anyone since signing in Miami and has solidified his Hall of Fame case.  Who would’ve guessed?

Kevin Love: nexus of the playoff universe?

Many have noted that the Cavs decision to buyout Kevin Love was questionable because he still had value and he could come back to bite the Cavs in the ass in the playoffs.  The Cavs weren’t directly hurt by Love but consider all the things that happened as a result of this decision:

-Love put up 9.8 ppg , .653 TS% (.433% from three), 7.4 rpg  in 21.8 mpg to help beat Milwaukee

-Love took the charge that hurt Giannis, which killed Milwaukee

-Cleveland really needed another shooter to keep up with New York in the playoffs (and Love had played well against New York in the regular season)

-Love is now a key player in the Miami-New York series

Cleveland couldn’t have known all of this would cascade from one seemingly inconsequential decision but this is a reminder that giving up something for little (a discount on the amount due on the contract) has real risk.

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NBA Playoffs Preview 2022-23

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Predictions were much easier to make when the Spurs, LeBron Miami, and then the peak Warriors ruled the roost.  On the other hand, I love the wide-open Western Conference where four teams have very plausible cases to win the and a fifth (the Lakers) sort of as well.  In the East, the 76ers and Celtics will have a war for the honor of playing Milwaukee.  Before we get to that, here are the First Round predictions:

Eastern Conference

1. Bucks v. Heat:  There is a prevailing thought that the well-coached Heat and Jimmy Butler can always catch fire and that might give Miami a puncher’s chance but the offense just isn’t strong enough to stop Milwaukee.  Bucks win 4-1.

2.  Celtics v. Hawks:  I also don’t see a strong case for Atlanta.  The team has worked better since the coaching change but went 0-3 against Boston with none of the games being particularly close.  Celtics win 4-1.

3.  76ers v. Nets:  This feels very similar to their 2019 playoffs match up.  Then, we had the plucky undersized Nets against big Joel Embiid wherein Embiid bullied Jarrett Allen relentlessly.  I expect a similar outcome between Embiid and Nic Claxton.  76ers win 4-0.

4.  Cavaliers v. Knicks:  The only interesting First Round matchup in the East.  New York won the season series 3-1 but that was due, in part, to a red hot Julius Randle, who is coming off of an ankle injury.  In addition, even when healthy, Randle’s manic energy has been easier to stop in the playoffs.  The Cavs huge front line of Allen and Eric Mobley should wear Randle down enough to win a tough series.  Cavaliers win 4-3.

Western Conference

1.  Nuggets v. Timberwolves:  A credible case could be made that Minnesota will give Denver some trouble.  The teams split their games 2-2.  The Rudy Gobert-Nikola Jokic is always fun but Gobert has never exactly shut down the Joker.  Nuggets win 4-2.

2.  Grizzlies v. Lakers:  Credit the Lakers for fixing the roster imbalances and righting the ship (relatively speaking).  Whether decent balance plus LeBron and Anthony Davis is sufficient to beat the Grizz is another question.  Memphis has also had a weird season and they are clearly more vulnerable than your average two seed in the First Round.  Still, the chances that a hobbled 38-year old LBJ can hold up for a long series without home court advantage seems unlikely.  Grizzlies win 4-3.

3.  Kings v. Warriors:  How often are six seeds decisively favored in the First Round?  As we looked at previously, the Kings’ extreme offensive style doesn’t usually translate to playoff success.  On top of that, it’s also hard to pick against a healthy Steph Curry.  The Kings are no pushovers, but I agree with the consensus that Golden State will be the winner.  Warriors win 4-2.

4.  Suns v. Clippers:  If only Paul George was healthy now, this series would be incredible to watch.  Without PG13, however, the Clippers are really light on shooters and it will be hard to hang with the high octane Suns, who are undefeated when Kevin Durant plays.  Phoenix has vulnerabilities too.  The have age and health related issues because they rely so heavily on KD (and Chris Paul).  Even when healthy, they also lack of depth due to the giant haul sent to Brooklyn to get Durant in the first place.  There is a chance that Kawhi Leonard carries this team but I expect another frustrating year for the Clipps.  Suns win 4-2.

Second Round

Bucks beat Cavaliers, 4-2

Celtics beat 76ers, 4-3

Suns beat Nuggets, 4-2

Warriors beat Grizzlies, 4-2

Conference Finals

Bucks beat Celtics, 4-3

Suns beat Warriors, 4-3

Finals

Bucks beat Suns, 4-3

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The Kings and Offense-Only Playoff Teams

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As we approach the NBA playoff season, the Western Conference is rich with uncertainty.  I thought we could briefly focus on the particular case of the Sacramento Kings.  They are pretty locked into the three seed and have none of the historical baggage of many of the other teams in the conference.  Yet, there is an undercurrent that the Kings offense-only style is not a real threat. 

Currently, the Kings are 47-31 (after a bad loss to the Spurs) but the team lacks balance.  The Kings have the NBA’s top offense but are 24th on defense and are 11th in pace.  Even in this high scoring era, pace tends to slow down in the playoffs and scoring is usually harder to come by.  How unprecedented would it be for a team with the Kings’ defense to make a deep playoff run?

I looked back to the start of this Steph Curry Three Point Era in 2014-15, to see if any teams made the conference finals with a team with as extreme an offensive makeup as the Kings.  Here’s the list of conference finalists together with their offense, defense, and pace rankings during this time:

YearTeamOffenseDefensePace
2021-22Boston7224
2021-22Miami10528
2021-22Golden State17113
2021-22Dallas15630
2020-21Milwaukee422
2020-21Atlanta82123
2020-21Phoenix5926
2020-21LA Clippers4828
2019-20Miami71127
2019-20Boston4417
2019-20LA Lakers11311
2019-20Denver51629
2018-19Toronto5515
2018-19Milwaukee412
2018-19Golden State11310
2018-19Portland31618
2017-18Cleveland52912
2017-18Boston18122
2017-18Golden State3115
2017-18Houston1613
2016-17Cleveland32115
2016-17Boston81313
2016-17Golden State124
2016-17San Antonio9127
2015-16Cleveland31028
2015-16Toronto51129
2015-16Golden State152
2015-16Oklahoma City21310
2014-15Cleveland31825
2014-15Atlanta6615
2014-15Golden State211
2014-15Houston1282

Over this span, conference finals teams have an average offense rank of 6th in the NBA and a defense average rank of 9th.  A few teams (some LeBron Cavs teams and the 2020-21 Hawks) have been offense-only in the regular season and have made the conference finals but there are some significant differences between those teams and these Kings. 

The LeBron James Cavs teams were bad on defense (21st in 2016-17 and 29th in 2017-18) but it was pretty clear that LBJ was coasting during the regular season and the Cavs were a different team in the post-season.  Most recently, the Hawks snuck into the Eastern Conference Finals with the 21st defense but they were slower paced than the Kings and they had the help of the sui generis event of Ben Simmons’ meltdown.

If we go beyond the Curry Era, the most similar team to the Kings was the 2009-10 Suns with late stage Steve Nash.  Phoenix was 1st on offense, 23rd on defense and 4th in pace.  They were dispatched by the Lakers.  Earlier versions of the Nash Suns also had similar splits and made the WCF.

In short, the past data isn’t great for the Kings unless they are as good offensively as those old Suns teams.  The Kings could easily win the first round but the Kings’ path to the WCF is quite narrow.  We will revisit this when the playoff seeding becomes clearer.

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Wilt’s 100-Point Game Revisited

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On March 2nd we passed the 61st anniversary of Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game against the Knicks.  The 100-pointer has been a very well-covered event by plenty of books (notably “Tall Tales” by Terry Pluto and “Wilt” by Robert Cherry) and articles looking into most of its nooks and crannies.  I thought we could dig a little deeper and see if we could find a few more interesting tidbits.  Before doing so, let’s go over some of the basics:

-Wilt scored 100 against a bad and undermanned Knicks team in a game played at a neutral site in Hershey, Pennsylvania late in the 1961-62 season.  The Knicks went 29-51 for the season and were the second worst team in the NBA.  New York’s center was 6’10 Darrall Imhoff, who fouled out against Wilt in 20 minutes.  Backup Phil Jordon was injured so the next biggest defenders were 6’9 rookie Cleveland Buckner and 6’6 Dave Budd.

-This 100-point game came during Wilt’s apex as a scorer.  He averaged a record 50.4 ppg that season (up from 38.4 ppg the prior season).  In terms of high octane offense, 1961-62 was about as high as it got, as NBA teams averaged a record 118.8 ppg (by comparison the current torrid NBA season is at an average of 114.3 ppg per team).

-The Warriors were up big in a meaningless game for both teams and when Wilt hit about 80 points, they decided to go for the record. The fourth quarter of the game was a bit farcical, with Philly force feeding Wilt and the Knicks desperately trying to stop it.  There are great quotes about the game in “Tall Tales.”  Tom Meschery said that, late in the game, “the Knicks were waiting until the 24-second clock was about to expire before they shot…they were [also] fouling everyone except Wilt so he wouldn’t get 100.”  Knicks Richie Guerin countered that the Warriors were also “fouling us immediately to get the ball back and give Wilt more chances.”  Al Attles also noted that Warriors coach Frank McGuire had Wilt at the point guard “down the stretch so that if New York wanted to foul someone, it had to be Wilt.”  Wilt said he was “embarrassed” by the game because “I pushed for 100 and it destroyed the game because I took shots that I normally never would.  I was not real fluid.  I mean, 63 shots?”  Guerin, who was present for Elgin Baylor’s 71-point game and Wilt’s 100-point game: “[i]n Wilt’s game, they set out to get him the record.  There was nothing artificial about Elgin’s 71.”  (Guerin was a tad bitter).

-Despite the weird fourth quarter, the weirdest part of the game was Wilt hitting 28 of 32 foul shots when he was a career .511% foul shooter.  The chances of his having such a hot night from the line were quite low.  1961-62 was Wilt’s best foul shooting season (.613%) but going .875% on 32 attempts still seems anomalous.  Had Wilt shot his season 61% average, we would expect an average yield of 20 makes on the 32 shots.

So, we can rightly conclude that Wilt’s 100 points were forced but still a crazy impressive accomplishment.  Digging a little deeper with the help of Basketball-Reference, here are a few more tidbits:

-Wilt’s big game didn’t come out of the blue.  He scored 64.3 ppg in the three games prior to the 100-point game and shot 45-59 (.763%) from the line at that time.  Over the four-game span that includes the 100-point game, Wilt shot 73-91 (.802%), the third best four game mark of his career (the other two were on only 12 attempts).  From both the field and the line, Wilt was riding a hot streak even relative to his historic pace that year.  For a little perspective, Wilt averaged 49.6 ppg through the first 72 games of the season before averaging 75.3 ppg during this super-hot four-game streak.

-Two days after the 100-point game, Wilt played the Knicks again, this time in New York.  They “held” Wilt to 58 points and 35 boards in a one-point win for the Warriors.

-32 free throws attempts was not Wilt’s highest.  His career high for attempts occurred when he went 19-34 against the Hawks on February 22, 1962.  The 28-32 (.875%) was Wilt’s best percentage in a game where he took at least 20 free throws (there were 89 regular season games of 20 or more attempts).   His worst came on January 4, 1967, when he shot 5-24 (.208%) from the line.  Wilt had only five 20 or more free throw games in the playoffs.  He shot 50% of more in three and won those games.  He shot 8-22 (April 17, 1968) and 8-25 (April 12, 1966), both close losses against Boston.

-The 63 field goal attempts may have been forced but Wilt shot well.  His other high attempt games were much less efficient.  Here’s a list of his top five shot attempt games:

Shot 36-63 (.571%) in a win on 3/2/62 (the 100-point game)

Shot 31-62 (.500%) in a loss on 12/8/61

Shot 27-58 (.466%) in a loss on 11/26/64

Shot 25-50 (.500%) in a win on 2/11/64

Shot 18-49 (.367%) in a loss on 1/26/64

Incidentally, the most shot attempts by a player not named Wilt or Elgin was George Gervin’s 49 attempts to score 63 points on April 9, 1978, the last game of the season, to clinch the scoring title in a 21-point loss (correction, Kobe’s final game and Rick Barry were each 50 shot games).  There are quite a few late season gunner games in NBA history so let’s not be too hard on Wilt for gunning to 100.  It may have been forced but Wilt was shooting quite well in Hershey and he made history that deserves to be appreciated on its terms.