1. Cleveland Struggles: We’re almost two weeks into another NBA season and there is a distinct lack of serious surprises. The one occurrence that most people are noticing is Cleveland’s sluggish start out of the gate. After winning 66 games last year, the Cavs are 4-3, though LeBron James has been as good as ever. Is it too early to speculate as to why Cleveland is struggling? Frankly, yes. John Hollinger took a look at the issue yesterday and agreed that it was premature but did posit that 2008-09 could’ve been an outlier for the Cavs, who have really been closer to a 50-win team previously. In that same vein, he also noted that the team was struggling offensively this year, which was a similarity to the pre-2008-09 Cavs, who lacked secondary scoring options as well.
My feelings is that it is way too early to count the Cavs out. They will be a title contender this season. While it is unlikely they win 66 games again, remember that both the 2006-07 and 2007-08 teams were serious playoff threats, going to the NBA Finals and taking the champ Celts seven games respectively. Another factor to consider is that it is very hard for a team to improve on a 66-win season. Last year, we reviewed the issue of how teams follow up on seasons after they won 64 games or more the year before. We found that not a single team matched its win total from the previous season (though they all ended up being at least pretty good). The point is that perfection (or close to perfection) is impossible. It may seem to our memory that the past legends were always absolutely dominating the NBA. Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O’Neal were usually very good but their teams, even when contending, were not always transcendent. History tells us that the Cavs should break 50 wins this season but some decline shouldn’t be taken too seriously.
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