Usually, we do a longform playoff preview replete with predictions and structured picks by series. This year we will try a different format because: (a) a normal preview is a little late and (b) the traditional format has gotten a little boring to me. Having said that, let’s review the playoffs, FAQ style to examine a few things….
Has a team as good as OKC ever not won a title?
Absent injury, probably not. OKC had the best SRS ever at 12.70, which was a good deal higher than the previous leaders, 1970-71 Milwaukee (11.92) and 1995-96 Chicago (11.80), both of which ran through the playoffs with minimal resistance. Before this season, there have been 11 teams with an SRS over 10 and eight of those teams won the title:
2024-25 OKC, 68-14, 12.70 SRS
1970-71 Milwaukee, 66-16, 11.92 SRS (won title)
1995-96 Chicago, 72-10, 11.80 SRS (won title)
1971-72 L.A. Lakers, 69-13, 11.65 SRS (won title)
2016-17 Golden State, 67-15, 11.35 SRS (won title)
2023-24 Boston, 64-18, 10.75 SRS (won title)
1971-72 Milwaukee, 63-19, 10.70 SRS (lost in WCF to the Lakers)
1996-97 Chicago, 69-13, 10.70 SRS (won title)
2015-16 Golden State, 73-9. 10.38 SRS (lost in Finals to Cleveland)
2015-16 San Antonio, 67-15, 10.28 SRS (lost in WCF to Golden State)
1991-92 Chicago, 67-15, 10.07 SRS (won title)
2014-15 Golden State, 67-15, 10.01 SRS (won title)
Of the three non-title winners, the 1971-72 Bucks and 2015-16 Spurs were actually second in the NBA SRS and lost to the team with the higher SRS. The only other loser with an SRS so high was the 2015-16 Warriors, who lost that epic Game 7 to LeBron. Last year at this time, we noted that Boston looked dominant on paper and was a prohibitive favorite for the title. Well, everything that was true for Boston is even more true for this year’s Thunder.
The Thunder are the obvious favorite, can anyone in the West beat them?
Doesn’t seem like it but here’s how the teams left in the West did against OKC:
Memphis: Went 0-4 against OKC and were outscored by 18.8 ppg. This series should go quickly. [Postscript: OKC beat Memphis by nearly 50 in Game 1 of their series today].
Denver: Went 2-2 against OKC but were outscored by 6 ppg. The case for Denver revolves around a rousing back-to-back in OKC in March where they were blown out in the first game but gutted out an impressive win the next night. If the path to a playoff upset by any opponent is to steal one road game in OKC and hold serve at home, Denver has shown that it can do just that. Denver has had a tough year but having Nikola Jokic gives them a puncher’s chance against the Thunder. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they will have gutted through a tough series with the Clippers first, which could drain their energy, before facing Denver.
L.A. Clippers: Went 0-4 against OKC and were outscored by 9.8 ppg. Still, the first two losses came very early in the season and the full-strength Clipps played OKC tough in their most recent meeting. The Clippers have to get through Denver and remain healthy to have a chance against OKC. Kawhi Leonard is still awesome when healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy for a full playoffs since 2019-20.
Houston: Went 2-3 against OKC and was outscored by 5.2 ppg. Houston has a recent win against OKC and had a few close games. I don’t think the Rockets can score enough to get to the Conference Finals. If they did get there, Houston can sort of match OKC athleticism but aren’t good enough and don’t have the transcendent offensive star necessary to beat the Thunder.
Golden State: Went 2-1 against OKC and outscored OKC by 4.7 ppg. The Warriors haven’t played OKC since January and Golden State hadn’t made the Jimmy Butler trade yet. Steph Curry played in both wins and sat out the one loss. This is a reminder that Curry, like Jokic, can beat any team if he gets hot enough.
L.A. Lakers: Went 1-2 against OKC and outscored OKC by 0.8 ppg. The Lakers handed OKC its worst loss of the season on April 6, a 27-point win. It was an impressive win but OKC had nothing to play for, having long clinched homecourt. Any team with Luka Doncic and LeBron could beat any team but I can’t imagine the Lakers beating this OKC four times in a series.
Minnesota: Went 2-2 against OKC and outscored OKC by 0.5 ppg. The Wolves have the best combination of young athletes and a scorer with the talent to get ridiculously hot (Anthony Edwards) to possibly beat OKC.
Of course, regular season match ups don’t necessarily mean that much in the post season but there are a few teams here that could be troublesome to OKC. The Thunder should vanquish all challengers but I imagine, in an ideal scenario, they prefer the Clippers in round two and Houston in the Conference Finals.
Rockets-Warriors: Has a two seed ever been an underdog before?
Normally, the two seed is a prohibitive favorite over the seven seed but the Western Conference is so bunched up under OKC that the Rockets are actually underdogs against Golden State. On paper, Houston has slightly better team stats (52 wins to 48 wins for GS and SRS of 4.97 to 3.56 for GS) but the Warriors have been even better since getting Jimmy Butler.
That got me wondering if a prior 2-7 match up had been so close. It turns out I had to go all the way back to 2023-24 to find the answer, when the 50-win Knicks played the 47-win 76ers in a pretty fun series that New York won 4-2. Besides that series, however, no other two-seven match up has been this close. There have been a number of close match ups, particularly in the West, but not quite this close in terms of wins.
Who’s going to win the inevitable Boston-Cleveland showdown?
The Cavs and Celtics are essentially a pick ‘em. I lean towards Cleveland because they have homecourt and outplayed Boston in their head-to-head during the season. This is not a high confidence pick.
Finals Prediction?
OKC over Cleveland, 4-2.