NBA Draft Preview 2010: Jeremy Lin, G Harvard

by Ed Weiland

Any team looking to find a starting PG in the 2010 NBA draft had best win the lottery and get the top pick. A year after the legendary PG draft of 2009, the pickings for playmakers are going to be thin. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a player or two who surprise the experts though.

The best candidate to pull off such a surprise might be Harvard’s Jeremy Lin. The reason is two numbers Lin posted, 2-point FG pct and RSB40. Lin was at .598 and 9.7. This is impressive on both counts. These numbers show NBA athleticism better than any other, because a high score in both shows dominance at the college level on both ends of the court. Here is a list of recent college PGs who topped .540 and 9.0:

Player

2 pt pct.

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40
Andre Miller

.600

.333

18.0

6.6

2.1

10.2
Penny Hardaway

.583

.332

24.4

6.8

1.9

13.0
Steve Francis

.580

.388

22.2

5.8

1.5

9.8
Gary Payton

.569

.333

27.3

8.6

2.2

9.1
Allen Iverson

.546

.366

30.5

5.7

1.2

9.3
Jason Kidd

.545

.362

19.0

10.3

2.1

11.8
Rajon Rondo

.540

.273

14.4

6.3

2.1

10.7
Greg Grant

.544

.485

26.3

6.3

1.7

9.4
Bobby Dixon

.548

.380

20.7

7.7

2.0

9.8
George Hill

.580

.450

24.0

4.8

1.5

10.0
Jeremy Lin

.598

.341

20.2

5.5

1.4

9.7

Bobby Dixon, you ask? He played at Troy from 2003-06. Dixon was listed at 5’10” and 160 his senior year and I’m guessing he was deemed too small. He’s played in France and Italy going on his 4th year now and seems to be getting plenty of PT. I don’t think I need to say too much to sell the rest of the group.

But Lin put up his numbers in the Ivy League, while most of the players on the list played in major conferences. This is a big deal. For players from a small conference the jump to the NBA is a lot tougher. They don’t get the exposure, unless their team makes the tournament. They need to be that much better statistically to stand out. Lin made his mark in the preseason when he averaged 23.3 PPG while shooting 63% in a 3-game stretch against UConn, BC and Georgetown. Typically players from small colleges see their numbers dip, sometimes drastically, when stepping up in competition. That Lin was able to not only be competitive, but excel in these situations is impressive. What I like to do with small college players is compare their numbers to those of successful small college players from the past. Here’s a list of college PGs who have successfully made the jump from small conferences to the NBA and their senior year stats:

Player

2 pt pct.

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40
Terry Porter

.575

n/a

22.7

5.0

1.8

8.1
Dee Brown

.521

.375

21.3

5.7

1.8

11.3
Lindsey Hunter

.463

.341

31.5

4.0

1.2

7.6
Speedy Claxton

.500

.381

25.9

6.8

1.8

10.1
Antonio Daniels

.576

.433

26.4

7.4

2.1

6.0
Derek Fisher

.430

.383

16.1

5.7

1.9

7.9
Anthony Johnson

.536

.405

16.2

8.3

2.5

6.4
Jose Barea

.485

.291

25.1

10.0

1.8

6.8
Eric Maynor

.516

.361

25.5

7.0

2.1

8.2
George Hill

.580

.450

24.0

4.8

1.5

10.0
Jeremy Lin

.598

.341

20.4

5.5

1.4

9.8

This isn’t a wildly impressive group. Lin tops the group in 2-point pct, scored over 20 P40 and brings the high RSB40. That’s all good and bodes well for Lin’s NBA future. The bad news is he’s a decent, but not great passer, making it questionable whether he can handle the point. His 1.4 A/TO is the lowest total of this group with the exception of Hunter, who was more of a combo guard anyway. His 5.5 A40 is also on the low side. I like PG prospects to be over 6.0, but this isn’t completely necessary. There were several good NBA PGs who posted an A40 lower than Lin’s 5.5, the best being Sam Cassell and Mark Price. It is also important to point out that Terry Porter, who is by far the most successful player on this list, posted a lower A40 than Lin. So while it would be better for Lin to post a higher frequency of assists, and points for that matter, they’re not so low that I would dismiss his chances of playing PG at the next level.

With seniors who have been somewhat invisible until their final seasons, I think it is a good idea to look at the entire college career. This gives us an idea of whether the senior season is more of an aberration than a progression.

Jeremy Lin

Minutes

2 pt pct.

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40
Freshman

506

.473

.281

9.9

3.6

1.0

7.5
Sophomore

940

.527

.279

16.0

4.6

1.5

9.4
Junior

975

.545

.400

20.4

4.9

1.1

9.8
Senior

933

.598

.341

20.2

5.5

1.4

9.7

Lin’s progression looks fairly normal. The .598 might be a tad high, but even at the .545 he was at his junior year he’s still a pretty strong prospect. He’s scored 20+ for consecutive seasons and has 3 seasons over 9.0 RSB40. He has shot 37% on threes the past couple of seasons, so he has shown enough there. The important thing is his senior year doesn’t look fluky or something that was the result of a hot streak.

I like Jeremy Lin as a PG prospect, but he isn’t without flaws and concerns. He isn’t a great passer yet and he didn’t score as frequently as a prospect from a small college should. Both numbers are in the grey area though. They’re lower than I’d like them to be, but not low enough that I’d say Jeremy Lin was doomed as a prospect. That being noted, he does bring that combination of a high 2-point pct. and RSB40, which has been a very, very good thing for aspiring NBA PGs to have on their college report card in past years. This is a weak year for both PGs and combo guards. After John Wall there are no sure things. Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star.

Just a quick note here. I’m going to do the draft preview a little differently this year. Rather than doing long posts covering all the players at each position, I’m going to analyze similar players together. This will mean more posts than usual, but they’ll be shorter. I thought Jeremy Lin would be a good guy to start with, because he’s the one player I probably differ on with the rest of the draft pundits by the biggest margin. Hopefully this new way of doing things works well.

58 Comments »

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  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Hoops Analyst. Hoops Analyst said: LeBron is done but we've got some draft stuff, a close look at Jeremy Lin: http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487 [...]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Draft Preview: Jeremy Lin, G Harvard | Hoops Analyst -- Topsy.com — May 13, 2010 #

  2. Ed –

    I didn’t think you’d start your in depth player analysis in my back yard. I live in Cambridge and have seen Lin play in person several times. I think he can make it and be a very solid pro – several of my friends do not. One factor to consider is that Lin could possibly make more money being a superstar in China than being the 14th man on an NBA roster.

    Right now I would say that Lin has to improve his overall PG skills, and that’s why his passing stats don’t look all that hot. However, Lin is an exceptional passer in traffic, almost a poor-man’s version of Dwyane Wade in that regard. But he often struggles with his ball handling around the perimeter. He was asked to do basically everything for Harvard, which is another explanation for the turnover rate.

    I hope Lin gets a chance, he’s a pretty unique player. I was also wondering about your thoughts on Landry Fields, you have him rated much higher than anyone else. Cheers

    -Tim

    Comment by nbafocus — May 14, 2010 #

  3. I really like this analysis. The stats don’t lie. But it’s crazy that he still doesn’t get respect from people like Chad Ford because he doesn’t look “athletic” enough.

    If he can dunk, block people on breakaway dunks, blow by people on a 1st step, I don’t really know how much more athletic he needs to get. Ever heard of JJ Barea?

    Comment by David — May 15, 2010 #

  4. It’s also worth noting that by playing on team of underclassmen in the less athletic Ivy league, Lin was basically the be-all, end-all focus of opposing defenses in every single Ivy game. That also offsets some of the demerits due to his low-major competition.

    Comment by zxcvb — May 15, 2010 #

  5. [...] or even “Jeremy Lin” by itself), one Draft expert also thinks he’s the 2nd-best point guard in the Draft — and he’s the type of pick that can yield a favorable trade, due at [...]

    Pingback by Around the Association: 2010 NBA Draft Previews – Boston Celtics: Oh Danny Boy! « News, Articles and Information — June 25, 2010 #

  6. [...] in the Ivy League, and some scouts say that while he’s a great passer for a point guard, his offensive skills may not be ready for the [...]

    Pingback by Jeremy Lin takes shot at NBA | Harry Mok — July 23, 2010 #

  7. Kudos to you Ed. Looks like you’re the only one who gave Lin a chance and he’s the only PG in summer league after Wall who’s actually done something enough to impress the GMs.

    Comment by johnjones — July 26, 2010 #

  8. Nice pick, if only you had hyped him more!

    Comment by Linsanity — February 18, 2012 #

  9. Best post ever… I knew you were right all along! thanks for the great read.

    Comment by Hindsight — February 18, 2012 #

  10. Hi,

    I’m from the past (2009) and I predicted this much sooner than you all did.

    Good day to you,
    David

    Comment by David — February 19, 2012 #

  11. This draft analysis of Jeremy Lin is looking pretty spot on now…..

    Comment by Trevor J — February 19, 2012 #

  12. Dear Mr Weiland, your analysis on Jeremy Lin was a masterpiece, so right after 2 years! Wish you continue your work and be called by a GM among the NBA teams one day to make you an analyst for them!
    Cheers from Hong Kong

    Comment by Kenneth Tang — February 19, 2012 #

  13. Remarkable forecast. Comments also prophetic…I like the point that JLin accomplished his college stats in spite of being the primary (sole?) focus of opposing defenses. Also remarkable that the first commenter mentioned Landry Fields, a productive team mate of JLin’s! Is there any record of Ed’s evaluation of Fields? Special interest also as I spent 8 years as an American dependent in Taiwan in elementary and middle school.

    Comment by Steve — February 19, 2012 #

  14. Ed, I’ve got to say that I’ll be reading your work from now on, and hope you can continue to expand your numbers system… this very well might be the “moneyball” of the NBA. Kudos and keep it up

    Comment by paul — February 20, 2012 #

  15. Kudos, Mr Weiland.

    Comment by Eric — February 20, 2012 #

  16. Figures don’t lie! Glad he got his shot AND the passing thing straightened out.

    Comment by Constantine Flevaris — February 20, 2012 #

  17. Good Work Mr. Weiland! You are very very accurate about Jeremy Lin and I enjoy our analysis of the other players also. I believe you could be a GM or on SportsCenter soon!

    Comment by Alex Ward — February 20, 2012 #

  18. Ed your a Genius

    Comment by Emanuel — February 20, 2012 #

  19. Congrats on the article; I sense another Moneyball…

    Comment by Tim C — February 20, 2012 #

  20. That’s right! I’m jumping on your year-old bandwagon!!!

    Comment by Mike Cook — February 20, 2012 #

  21. amazing analysis sir. they should make you a scout.

    Comment by Jacob Howarth — February 20, 2012 #

  22. This is the future. You, sir, are a smart man.

    Comment by Dan — February 21, 2012 #

  23. Well done sir! Spot on for Landry Fields too! The boy can ball!

    Comment by Ford Lee — February 21, 2012 #

  24. Your article on Lin is very interesting. First, congratulations on predicting his starter potential. Second, I am curious how you explain the large increase in A40 that Lin had from college to the Knicks. Were his teammates in college that bad? Do you think he learned to pass in the D League? If his teammates were bad, do you have a reliable metric that can normalize this factor in evaluating point guards?

    Comment by Andrew Wong — February 21, 2012 #

  25. Fantastic analysis through what so called a amateur. You are very dedicated in your hobby. Please do much more on Lin.

    Comment by Gordon — February 21, 2012 #

  26. Interesting analysis, good work.

    Comment by Phil Jackson — February 21, 2012 #

  27. Ed Weiland is a prophet.

    Comment by CJpistonsfan — February 21, 2012 #

  28. Ha, I think you have been proved right. Great pick!

    Comment by Mikey — February 21, 2012 #

  29. Kinda nailed it, didn’t ya? Well done. There are countless highly-paid scouts who could learn a thing or two from you.

    Comment by Benny Evans — February 21, 2012 #

  30. Dear Mr. Weiland,
    This was a masterpiece scouting report. Hope to see you in the pro’s oneday. Good luck, I wish you the best!

    Comment by Anthony Ngo — February 21, 2012 #

  31. wow, the proof is in the pudding..great job you’re probably the only person who published an article like this in ‘10

    Comment by Salman — February 21, 2012 #

  32. [...] And crazy enough, back in 2009, this guy called it by saying that Jeremy Lin should be playing in the NBA one day.  No one else was saying this.  NO ONE (well, there was also this one other stat geek). [...]

    Pingback by Jeremy Lin, Friendship, & Needing Someone to Believe in You When No One Else Does | while waiting — February 22, 2012 #

  33. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit The Earth (Or At Least The NBA) | Streaming Media Hosting — February 22, 2012 #

  34. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit The Earth (Or At Least The NBA) | Premium Shopping Store — February 22, 2012 #

  35. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit The Earth (Or At Least The NBA) | YEC - CLB Nhà kinh tế trẻ — February 22, 2012 #

  36. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit The Earth (Or At Least The NBA) | Ice Skate Domains — February 22, 2012 #

  37. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit the Earth (Or at Least The NBA) | PRO-BTC — February 22, 2012 #

  38. [...] Point ensure Jeremy Lin emerged as a New York Knicks’ savior, reviving a group that was struggling to stay afloat in a deficiency of stars similar to Carmelo Anthony as well as Amar’e Stoudemire. a Harvard connoisseur who went undrafted as well as was deserted by dual teams, Lin certainly did not take a knocked about trail to fame, though that usually adds to a amour of his timely breakout. Hoops Analyst bard Ed Weiland is a single of a couple of who can explain he saw this coming. [...]

    Pingback by The BP First Take | Milwaukee Drill — February 22, 2012 #

  39. [...] Weiland’s emphatic analysis appeared in 2010, the year Lin went undrafted. This nearly two-year-old entry circulated online thanks to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a community of startup founders and the startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained quite a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit the Earth (Or at Least The NBA) | Get A New Domain — February 23, 2012 #

  40. [...] Weiland’s fatiguing research seemed in 2010, a year Lin went undrafted. This scarcely two-year-old entrance circulated online interjection to a user who submitted it to Hacker News, a Reddit-like site with a village of startup founders and a startup-curious. Needless to say, Lin gained utterly a few fans who hadn’t watched a lot of basketball. [...]

    Pingback by Wired Opinion: The Geek Shall Lin-herit the Earth (Or at Least The NBA) | YEC - CLB Nhà kinh tế trẻ — February 23, 2012 #

  41. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t A Democracy of Data, and Neither is the NBA (Wired Opinion) – Wired News | Los Angeles Christian Radio — February 23, 2012 #

  42. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t A Democracy of Data, and Neither is the NBA (Wired Opinion) – Wired News | Nassau Christian Radio — February 23, 2012 #

  43. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t a Democracy of Data, and Neither Is the NBA (Wired Opinion) | PRO-BTC — February 24, 2012 #

  44. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t a Democracy of Data, and Neither Is the NBA (Wired Opinion) | Premium Shopping Store — February 24, 2012 #

  45. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t a Democracy of Data, and Neither Is the NBA (Wired Opinion) | Ice Skate Domains — February 24, 2012 #

  46. [...] cites a now-famous pre-draft analysis by Ed Weiland that made a strong case for Lin as a sleeper pick. Weiland pointed to two publicly available [...]

    Pingback by Interface: The Tech World Isn’t a Democracy of Data, and Neither Is the NBA (Wired Opinion) | Get A New Domain — February 24, 2012 #

  47. [...] Point ensure Jeremy Lin emerged as a New York Knicks’ savior, reviving a group that was struggling to stay afloat in a deficiency of stars like Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. A Harvard connoisseur who went undrafted and was deserted by dual teams, Lin positively did not take a beaten trail to fame, yet that usually adds to a amour of his timely breakout. Hoops Analyst author Ed Weiland is one of a few who can explain he saw this coming. [...]

    Pingback by My Blog » » The BP First Take: Monday, February 13 by Daniel Rathman — February 25, 2012 #

  48. [...] Lin was on the low side, at 5.5. The relatively low total is what led to the line in the original Hoopsanalyst article: “If he can get the passing thing [...]

    Pingback by Jeremy Lin: What Made the New York Knicks Sensation Stand out as a Prospect | :: Sparxxrx LLC :: — February 26, 2012 #

  49. [...] Lin was on the low side, at 5.5. The relatively low total is what led to the line in the original Hoopsanalyst article: “If he can get the passing thing [...]

    Pingback by Jeremy Lin: What Made the New York Knicks Sensation Stand out as a Prospect at newyorkknicks.hoops227.net — February 27, 2012 #

  50. [...] zeroed in on Lin's potential two years prior to the player's big break. He wrote about Lin in a Hoops Analyst blog. With Hoops Analyst, Weiland had taken up the quest of trying to determine which college [...]

    Pingback by AllAnalytics - Louis Watson - Predicting Linsanity — March 7, 2012 #

  51. [...] Mr Weiland, who contributes to the HoopsAnalyst.com website, singled out Mr Lin from among the 5,000 or so players at Division I colleges, and wrote that his statistics suggested [...]

    Pingback by The elephant on the court | Jeremy Lin Rookie Card — April 20, 2012 #

  52. [...] Mr Weiland, who contributes to the HoopsAnalyst.com website, singled out Mr Lin from among the 5,000 or so players at Division I colleges, and wrote that his statistics suggested [...]

    Pingback by Genius Houston Rockets Boss Daryl Morey Explains Why It’s So Hard To Evaluate … | The Alief Post — April 21, 2012 #

  53. [...] Mr Weiland, who contributes to the HoopsAnalyst.com website, singled out Mr Lin from among the 5,000 or so players at Division I colleges, and wrote that his statistics suggested [...]

    Pingback by Genius Houston Rockets Boss Daryl Morey Explains Why It’s So Hard To Evaluate … | Jeremy Lin Rookie Card — April 21, 2012 #

  54. [...] surprising stories of the year. Many sports blogs were quite happy with his performance including HoopAnalyst and ourselves. The reason of course was obvious. While much of the world was saying “Who [...]

    Pingback by Why Daryl Morey is full of it. | The Wages of Wins Journal — April 24, 2012 #

  55. [...] surprising stories of the year. Many sports blogs were quite happy with his performance including HoopAnalyst and ourselves. The reason of course was obvious. While much of the world was saying “Who could [...]

    Pingback by Rockets’ Daryl Morey is Very, Very Wrong | Jeremy Lin Rookie Card — April 24, 2012 #

  56. Wow, Mr. Ed Weiland was right on the money…perhaps he had a time travel machine to the future :)
    Good job. I hope he gets a job a “real” scout because a lot of others just go through the motion of scouting based on their own biased opinion.

    Comment by Jennifer — June 9, 2012 #

  57. [...] – a “moneyball” statistician predicted the success of Jeremy Lin 2 years before anyone knew who he [...]

    Pingback by Moneyball Design: Why the Research and Data Analysis is Critical to Getting Your Prospects to Convert | ConversionXL — November 29, 2012 #

  58. [...] the 2010 draft, HoopsAnalyst rated Lin very favorably and put him in a similar league as Andre Miller, Penny Hardaway, Steve Francis, [...]

    Pingback by Jeremy Lin: Colleges Did Not Offer Me Basketball Scholarships Because of Race | Real Hot News on ZBlogging — April 7, 2013 #

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