I already took a look at Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams, who are the top two PG prospects this year. My next piece after this one will cover a trio of small college guards, CJ McCollum, Nate Wolters and Ray McCallum, who I wanted to look at separately. This group is what you might call the lesser PGs. These players have shown enough for a mention, but come up short as prospects. These are the type of prospects with whom I have to pick through stats to convince myself they’re serious prospects. All have something to like about them though and deserve a look.
One thing to keep in mind with PGs is that it has become much easier to play the position in the NBA in the 10 years since the hand check rule. Going back to the 2004 draft there have been several PGs drafted outside the lottery outperforming their draft position. The quick list includes Jameer Nelson, Chris Duhon, Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks, Ramon Sessions, George Hill, Mario Chalmers, Darren Collison, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe, Grievis Vasquez, Jeremy Lin, Norris Cole, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. A good number of higher picks like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving have all become superstars. There still have been busts like Jonny Flynn, disappointments like DJ Augustin and 2nd round picks we never hear from again like JamesOn Curry. But the recent trend has been that PGs have been good bargains on draft day. For that reason it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if one or more of these players had some sort of impact in 2014. Of course the flip side of this trend is that with only a limited number of NBA PG spots available, the recent glut of good PGs entering the league could make it tough for the PG classes of the next few years to find a spot. Here are the numbers:
|
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
| Shane Larkin |
538 |
406 |
16.3 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
6.6 |
| Pierre Jackson |
490 |
359 |
22.1 |
7.9 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
5.9 |
| DJ Cooper |
510 |
364 |
18.0 |
9.1 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
6.9 |
| Dennis Schroeder |
436 |
402 |
19.3 |
5.3 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
5.6 |
| Lorenzo Brown |
465 |
263 |
14.0 |
8.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
7.8 |
| Tony Johnson |
568 |
460 |
17.7 |
6.4 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
7.9 |
| Payton Siva |
476 |
288 |
12.5 |
7.1 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
5.8 |
| Myck Kabongo |
458 |
296 |
15.2 |
5.8 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
7.3 |
| Phil Pressey |
408 |
324 |
13.6 |
8.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
5.9 |
| Tray Woodall |
561 |
369 |
16.2 |
7.2 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
5.6 |
| Anthony Marshall |
543 |
369 |
11.9 |
6.6 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
6.5 |
Prospects are listed in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal.
Shane Larkin, Miami: He’s the best of the remaining prospects because he’s younger and was still improving as his sophomore season ended. Larkin really came on strong as the year progressed. While his overall stats are good, but not great, his scoring numbers were pretty impressive in the last couple of months. It’s no coincidence that the rise of the Hurricanes coincided with Larkin’s improvement.
|
Shane Larkin |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
394 |
323 |
11.5 |
3.9 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
6.4 |
| Nov-Jan |
500 |
410 |
14.8 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
7.6 |
| February |
614 |
457 |
16.5 |
5.8 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
5.4 |
| March |
556 |
365 |
19.4 |
5.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
5.7 |
As a freshman Larkin wasn’t even on the draft radar. He started, but was just a role player with Durand Scott being the main guy in the backcourt. This year Larkin took over the role of top Hurricane and led them to the ACC championship and a tournament 2 seed. The numbers still show a player who is substandard on defense, as would be expected for a player under 6’0” as Larkin is. Offensively there’s a lot of promise here. When the year ended he was still improving as a scorer, both in frequency and efficiency. He was also improving as a passer. Because his sophomore season was something of a transition year when Larkin took over as the lead Hurricane from Scott, the stats might even be a little suppressed. Add that to his youth and Larkin is definitely a prospect who should perform better than his college numbers. Probably not much better though. He’s still very small by NBA standards and that usually means an NBA reserve.
Pierre Jackson, Baylor: Players that score and pass in the 22.0 P40 and 7.9 A40 range with a lower RSB40 are generally successful only if they surpass .500 on 2-point percentage and 2.0 on S40. Jackson hits neither mark. Because Jackson did top .500 and 2.0 as a junior and his low number this year was mainly due to a January slump, he’s probably a better prospect than his senior numbers suggest. Here are the monthly breakdowns:
|
Pierre Jackson |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Junior |
502 |
408 |
17.6 |
7.5 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
6.1 |
| Nov-Dec |
511 |
367 |
22.0 |
7.0 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
6.5 |
| January |
370 |
353 |
21.1 |
6.4 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
6.2 |
| February |
569 |
317 |
20.9 |
8.0 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
4.3 |
| March |
478 |
400 |
23.8 |
10.0 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
6.3 |
The monthly numbers give a little more hope than the overall numbers. The fact that his horrible January slump happened is bad, but it is only one month. I like Jackson because for all but one month of his NCAA career he looked like a solid NBA PG prospect. He is small, at 5’10”. But he has more potential than the rest of the 2013 senior PGs to stick and even excel as a reserve NBA PG.
DJ Cooper, Ohio: Cooper has been on the radar for a few years. His defense and passing numbers have always been terrific. As I showed in the Carter-Williams piece, this is a big deal. His scoring has been only moderate volume and poor efficiency, which has always lowered his prospects. This year he upped his efficiency to the point where he has to be taken more seriously. Here are his career numbers:
|
DJ Cooper |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
427 |
319 |
14.5 |
6.6 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
9.1 |
| Sophomore |
440 |
299 |
16.8 |
8.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
8.2 |
| Junior |
394 |
307 |
17.8 |
6.9 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
7.4 |
| Senior |
510 |
364 |
18.0 |
9.1 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
6.9 |
He wasn’t included in the 8-8 club from the MCW article, because he played at a smaller college and that list was limited to major college players. The important thing to take from this is his efficiency improved as a senior from both outside and inside. I’m usually wary of players who improve as a senior. In Cooper’s case there was an important change to the team in the senior year that could have been responsible for the improvement. Jim Christian replaced John Groce as the Bobcat coach. After Groce was hired at Illinois I recall reading a quote of his (which unfortunately I can’t find now, but I did make a mental note of at the time) where he said something along the line of he let DJ Cooper fire away and that probably hurt his efficiency, but he felt it was best for the team. I can’t remember the exact quote, but that was the context. The fact that Cooper improved his efficiency while shooting less as a senior suggests that his early inefficiency could have been a result of the system he played in.
The above is an example of me picking through stats and information to try and prop up a prospect. Cooper has proven he’s an NBA-level passer/defender. I also like the fact that the team made 2 tournaments and won 3 tournament games in the 4 years he played at Ohio as their best player. But it’s a stretch to think one year of decent offense after 3 poor seasons, no matter what the circumstances were, makes his offense good enough to play NBA PG. He’s also small, which is a trend with this group. I do like Cooper as a 2nd round sleeper, because of the defense, passing and the slight chance that the offense he flashed as a senior is his real level of ability.
Dennis Schroeder, Germany: Schroeder has just appeared on the draft radar following something of a meteoric rise in Europe. The mocks have him on the fringes of the lottery. The numbers for Schroeder were posted playing for a German team called the NY Phantoms. I’m not sure of the level of this league compared to the NCAA. I can say that there isn’t much here that’s wildly impressive and his low 2PP and RSB40 are both serious red flags.
I suspect a lot of his recent buzz is due to his newness, a decent performance in the Nike Hoops Summit and the fact that there are no great PG prospects this year. He gets some points for his youth, but I don’t see that he’s a much better prospect than the rest of this group.
Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State: In the Michael Carter-Williams piece I pointed out that major college PGs who have the 8.0 mark in both A40 and RSB40 in the same season have always gone on to long NBA careers. Brown hit 8.2 A40 and 7.8 RSB40 this past year. He fell short of the 8-8 club, but he was pretty close. Close puts him with the likes of Derrick Phelps and Reggie Geary when it comes to PG prospects, but it also shows NBA-level athleticism. He’s also a wildly inefficient and infrequent scorer. He’s only displayed spotty ability to hit a 3-pointer. This makes Brown a longshot and a tough player to draft in round one. It doesn’t help that he’ll be 23 before next season starts.
Brown has great defensive/passing skills and that’s an asset few PG prospects have. Should he add a decent offensive game, Lorenzo Brown would be a solid NBA player. There are worse plans than drafting this guy in round two and hoping for such a transformation. Considering his age and the fact that he has shown little offensive ability in 3290 NCAA minutes, it’s quite a stretch to think he can get there.
Tony Johnson, Lafayette: This is the type of player I would just like to see get a shot. The stats look terrific. He passes every important benchmark, except for P40 and he’s close enough there. The negatives are he posted these numbers at a small college, is only 6’0” and he didn’t hit the radar until his senior year. Here are his stats:
|
Tony Johnson |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
522 |
125 |
9.6 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
6.8 |
| Sophomore |
589 |
340 |
10.7 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
7.7 |
| Junior |
617 |
438 |
11.5 |
6.1 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
6.6 |
| Senior |
567 |
468 |
17.7 |
6.4 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
7.9 |
In 4 seasons at Lafayette, Johnson has been a very efficient scorer who has done everything you would ask a PG prospect to do. He’s small and the competition he posted these numbers against wasn’t exactly top notch. But he played in the same conference as CJ McCullom, who looks like he’ll be drafted in the lottery. He’s worth a look and is definitely a sleeper to stick around as a reserve.
Payton Siva, Louisville: There are 3 things to like about Siva. He’s a great passer and has been for 4 seasons. He’s a good ball hawk, averaging well over 2.5 S40 for his college career. I also like that he was a key player on an NCAA championship team. While he’s good at pressuring the ball, his size and low RSB40 suggest his defense at the NBA level will be judged as pesky at best. Offensively he hasn’t shown much, hitting under .300 from behind the arc in his last 3 seasons.
Like the others here Siva has a chance to stick as an NBA reserve. It would be big for him if he develops a 3-pointer. He looks like he’s capable of running an NBA offense and his experience playing pressure defense should help him. I would put Siva close to the level of Jackson. Both are under 6’0”. Both are seniors coming from major programs. Both led their teams to a championship as seniors, though Siva’s NCAA championship brings a lot more cred than Jackson’s NIT. Both seem to play with a lot of confidence and it wouldn’t surprise me if either one emerged as a semi-useful reserve NBA PG as early as next year.
Myck Kabongo, Texas: Coming out of high school two years ago Kabongo was ranked as the #11 prospect in the country, well ahead of Michael Carter-Williams (21st) and Trey Burke (84th). That and his youth give him some intrigue. The problem is his stats are weak, especially on the scoring side. He doesn’t score a lot of points and is inefficient from both sides of the arc when he does. Kabongo is a developmental pick. His youth and status as a top prospect means there’s some upside here, but there’s little in the stats that suggest he’ll realize whatever potential made him a top prospect coming out of high school.
Phil Pressey, Missouri: Pressey struggled this year with an increased load on offense. Because he’s one of the better passers in the nation he’s worth a look. His sophomore year was better, but not up to the level that would make him a good prospect.
Tray Woodall, Pittsburgh: Woodall is a 5th-year senior who turned 24 after the season. He has been slow to develop his offense, but it finally got there this past year. He’s an excellent passer, but defensively he’s very weak. His high end is a reserve, but his solid senior season gets him a mention here.
Anthony Marshall, UNLV: A senior who put up decent offense and passing numbers for the first time in his career. I’m always wary of seniors who suddenly emerge. He’s a long shot to be sure, but he has good size at 6’3” and that gives him an edge on what is a short group of PGs.