Shooting guards can be placed into two basic groups. I’ll call these groups the Jordans and the Millers. The Jordans would be your basic do-it-all SGs. They score 20+ PPG, but they’re also capable of grabbing 10 rebounds or passing out 10 assists on any given night. They play strong defense and could likely play some SF or PG if needed. Current and recent Jordans include Kobe, Wade, Brandon Roy, Larry Hughes, Joe Johnson, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones, Jason Richardson, Mitch Richmond and Hersey Hawkins. In general these are good players to have on the team. The Millers are players who are primarily scorers. They also can pump in 20+ PPG fairly easily, but their numbers in rebounds, steals, blocks and often assists are lower than the typical SG. Such players can be useful, especially when they’re something like a 3rd wheel on a contending team. They tend to come up big in big moments, but are often invisible for long stretches of game. Millers also tend to be wildly overrated by analysts who look only at PPG. While they’re usually popular with their fan base, the last thing any fan should want is for a Miller SG to be their teams’ #1 player. Signing a Miller SG to a max contract is usually a path to a salary cap mess. A recent league rule that gave teams some salary cap relief was nicknamed the “Allan Houston rule” after one of the most typical Millers ever who at the time was getting paid a ridiculous amount of money from the Knicks. Current and recent Millers include Ben Gordon, Michael Finley, Rip Hamilton, Steve Smith, Houston, Cuttino Mobley, Hubert Davis, Renaldo Blackman and Michael Redd.
I don’t mean to say that all Jordans are good and all Millers are bad. Larry Hughes would have to be considered a Jordan and Rip Hamilton would be a Miller. I think any fan or NBA exec would prefer Hamilton over Hughes. This isn’t a hard and fast rule either. If we wanted to break things down a little more there could be subgroups and degrees of Jordan and Miller in each player, etc. But on the balance there are two types of SGs and a team is much better off drafting and investing in a Jordan type of player as opposed to a Miller at SG. The reason for that little ramble is to compare the top 2 SGs selected in the 2008 draft with the top 2 this year:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
TO40 |
RSB40 |
| OJ Mayo |
.464 |
.409 |
23.0 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
7.2 |
| Eric Gordon |
.525 |
.337 |
23.9 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
5.9 |
| Tyreke Evans |
.514 |
.274 |
22.3 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
11.0 |
| James Harden |
.564 |
.356 |
23.8 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
9.0 |
Gordon and Harden are the more efficient scorers. Evans and Harden posted better numbers on both passing and defense. But it’s clear that Mayo and Gordon are Millers, while Evans and Harden are both Jordans. If you look at the rookie seasons of Gordon and Mayo, both players scored well and I’m sure thrilled many of the fans of their 20-something win teams to no end. But a look at their substandard numbers in rebounds, steals, and assists is a clue that these 2 are a couple of Millers in the making and any plan to build a team with either one as a centerpiece is probably going to end in disappointment. Both Evans and Harden are much more well-rounded players who are exactly the type of young SGs rebuilding teams should be looking to as building blocks of a contending team. Both have shown the ability to score, pass and defend extremely well. Both have the size and length to be dominant players. Evans and Harden lead a pretty decent group of prospects at SG. All 3 guard classes are strong and the frontcourt players are so weak that it’s likely the 2009 draft will see a larger percentage of guards drafted in round 1 than any draft in history.
It’s the same deal as before for SGs. I look for players who can score both often and efficiently. The defensive numbers need to be good and the passing needs to be adequate. The similarity scores all focus on these qualities more than others and should again not be taken too seriously. Here are the numbers, followed by my rankings of which players I prefer all other things being equal:
|
Player |
fgpct | 3pct | 2 pct | P40 | A40 | S40 | rsb40 | to40 | a/to |
| Christmas, D |
0.414 |
0.352 |
0.498 |
22.90 |
3.39 |
1.76 |
8.75 |
3.39 |
1.00 |
| Ellington, Wayne |
0.483 |
0.417 |
0.539 |
19.18 |
3.22 |
1.15 |
7.26 |
1.98 |
1.63 |
| Evans, Tyreke |
0.455 |
0.274 |
0.514 |
22.87 |
5.18 |
2.79 |
9.01 |
4.81 |
1.08 |
| Green, Danny |
0.471 |
0.418 |
0.517 |
17.59 |
3.68 |
2.37 |
7.86 |
2.23 |
1.65 |
| Harden, James |
0.489 |
0.356 |
0.564 |
23.80 |
5.00 |
1.99 |
8.96 |
3.99 |
1.25 |
| Henderson, G |
0.450 |
0.336 |
0.490 |
21.33 |
3.18 |
1.61 |
8.99 |
2.80 |
1.14 |
| Taylor, Jermaine |
0.480 |
0.376 |
0.551 |
32.84 |
2.35 |
1.58 |
9.06 |
3.52 |
0.67 |
| Matthews, W |
0.475 |
0.368 |
0.517 |
20.67 |
2.77 |
1.39 |
8.45 |
2.64 |
1.05 |
| Meeks, Jodie |
0.463 |
0.406 |
0.521 |
27.06 |
2.00 |
1.52 |
5.55 |
3.04 |
0.66 |
| Thornton, M |
0.472 |
0.388 |
0.522 |
25.96 |
2.63 |
1.97 |
9.17 |
2.25 |
1.17 |
| Vassallo, AD |
0.450 |
0.367 |
0.514 |
20.16 |
2.74 |
0.87 |
8.34 |
2.64 |
1.04 |
1. Tyreke Evans, Memphis: I decided SG will be his ultimate place, rather than point or combo. I know Memphis moved him to the point in late December and the team took off after that move. But there were other factors fueling that streak. Most important is the lineup change was part of a major lineup shuffle that eventually saw Doneal Mack and Shawn Taggart replacing Wesley Witherspoon and Pierre Henderson-Niles in the starting lineup. In short, when Evans was playing PG it was with stronger teammates than when he was playing SG. The second reason is Memphis’ non-conference schedule featured more strong teams than their conference schedule. There were still some patsies, but the 3 early losses came to Xavier, Georgetown and Syracuse, all superior teams than anything they’d face in Conference USA. So the idea that Evans blossomed when he moved to the point isn’t exactly correct. The team was already winning the games they should win and losing games they could be expected to lose. This was a team that lost a lot of talent to the NBA over the summer and they spent the first couple of months of the season transitioning to a new lineup. Once they found the right mix the team took off, but Evans was pretty much the same player in March that he was in December:
| Tyreke Evans |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Nov-Dec |
.519 |
.277 |
26.1 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
12.4 |
| Jan-Mar |
.512 |
.273 |
21.8 |
4.8 |
1.1 |
9.9 |
He was actually a little better during the early months, which is probably a case of a player fattening up stats against weaker competition, something every major college player does.
The reason I like Evans so much as a prospect is his high RSB40 number. He finished at 11.0 which led all major college guards in this draft. It’s a stat that might indicate the dominant athleticism needed to excel at the next level. Here are other major college freshmen SGs who also surpassed 10.0 RSB40:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Dwayne Wade |
.505 |
.346 |
24.4 |
1.2 |
13.9 |
| Ray Allen |
.548 |
.402 |
23.4 |
1.1 |
10.9 |
| Jerry Stackhouse |
.493 |
.100 |
23.3 |
0.8 |
12.8 |
| Eddie Jones |
.517 |
.351 |
17.4 |
1.0 |
10.2 |
| Joe Johnson |
.496 |
.368 |
20.1 |
0.8 |
10.3 |
| Doug Christie |
.600 |
.255 |
14.6 |
1.2 |
11.2 |
| Quentin Richardson |
.534 |
.346 |
22.5 |
0.5 |
10.1 |
| Greg Buckner |
.572 |
.295 |
14.8 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
| Bryant Stith |
.547 |
1.000 |
21.8 |
0.7 |
11.3 |
| Scott Burrell |
.415 |
.313 |
12.7 |
1.3 |
12.9 |
| Lawrence Moten |
.597 |
.321 |
21.6 |
0.8 |
10.1 |
| Shea Seals |
.446 |
.408 |
21.5 |
1.4 |
11.0 |
| Kris Clack |
.534 |
.359 |
16.0 |
1.1 |
15.2 |
| Bernard Blunt |
.458 |
.320 |
23.9 |
1.0 |
11.1 |
| Tyreke Evans |
.514 |
.274 |
22.9 |
1.1 |
11.0 |
Wade was actually a year older at the time, having missed his freshman year. This was his initial NCAA season though. The top 5 were all-stars at least twice in their careers. Christie had a long, productive career. Buckner and Richardson have been solid role players. Stith and Burrell hung around the league until their 30s with unremarkable careers. As for the others, Clack and Moten were listed as guards, but seem more like SFs. Clack was heavy for a guard at 230 lbs. Seals never got his FG pct. over .400 in 4 seasons and such players rarely make it. Blunt regressed after his freshman year. The problem in looking at some of these prospects, is all I have are numbers and whatever information I can find by googling. But it’s not uncommon in college basketball for a 6’3” forward to be listed as a guard. I suspect this is the case with Moten, Seals, Clack and Blunt. Richardson was more of a forward in college and was only able to transition to the pros because he developed a nice 3-point shot. These players just weren’t quick enough to play guard at the next level and not tall enough to play SF. Evans doesn’t have that problem. He’s definitely quick enough for the guard spot, so I see his career going much more like that of the top 6 than anything.
It would be a very good thing for his career if he could get that 3-pointer to fall more often. I think he probably can. He was hovering around .300, when a 4-30 slump to finish the season knocked him down to .274. There’s have been no shortage of NBA guards who shot less than .300 from behind the arc as college freshmen, but went on to become at least adequate long range shooters including, but not limited to: TJ Ford, Jason Kidd, Keyon Dooling, Derek Fisher, Mo Williams, Greg Buckner, Fred Hoiberg, Derek Anderson, Doug Christie, Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas, Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes and Jason Richardson.
One more thing I wanted to add on Evans is how impressive it was how well Memphis played this year with him as the star. This was a team that lost the best player in the nation in Rose, their leading scorer in Douglas-Roberts and their best inside player in Dorsey. Evans was the only major addition, yet he had this team very close to gaining a top seed by the time the season was finished. That they were upset by a very good #3 seed in Missouri in the tournament is no shame at all. Tyreke Evans looks like a very good prospect to me. He has good size and dominant athleticism. He moved comfortably into the role of star on a good team and led them to a terrific season. He shows all the characteristics of a future all-star SG.
Most similar players to Tyreke Evans:
Doug Christie, sophomore: .939
Donny Boyce, sophomore .898
Vonteego Cummings, sophomore: .886
Shandon Anderson, sophomore .877
David Vanterpool, sophomore: .869
Boyce was a very good all-around player who could never get his shooting efficiency to where it needed to be. Improving this area of his game will be a key for Evans. Not an impressive group in general, but both Grant Hill and Dwayne Wade were close at .845.
2. James Harden, Arizona State: I’ve been waffling between Evans and Harden as the top player here. I give Evans a slight edge, because Harden finished the season so poorly. But they’re pretty much even. Harden’s numbers look great. I mean few college SGs ever have had a 2-year run like Harden has had. He scores both often and efficiently and his defensive and passing numbers are solid. That’s everything a SG prospect needs to do. But a look at Harden’s freshmen and sophomore years compared with players who also scored often and efficiently suggests this isn’t always a sure ticket to greatness. Here’s frosh and sophs who, like Harden, scored over 20 P40 with a 2 pt. FG pct over .540:
| NCAA Freshmen |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Ray Allen |
.548 |
.402 |
23.4 |
1.3 |
10.9 |
| Eric Piatkowski |
.568 |
.346 |
21.9 |
1.4 |
9.7 |
| Francisco Garcia |
.551 |
.430 |
20.4 |
1.4 |
9.5 |
| Bryant Stith |
.547 |
1.000 |
21.8 |
0.7 |
11.3 |
| Rashad McCants |
.542 |
.414 |
22.7 |
0.6 |
8.8 |
| James Harden |
.576 |
.407 |
21.9 |
1.2 |
9.8 |
| NCAA Sophomores |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Michael Jordan |
.550 |
.447 |
25.9 |
0.7 |
10.9 |
| Jason Richardson |
.554 |
.402 |
20.7 |
1.7 |
11.1 |
| Jerry Stackhouse |
.546 |
.411 |
22.3 |
0.8 |
13.3 |
| Delonte West |
.549 |
.374 |
22.9 |
1.3 |
8.1 |
| Voshon Lenard |
.556 |
.367 |
24.5 |
1.5 |
7.9 |
| Tony Delk |
.565 |
.374 |
23.2 |
1.0 |
9.8 |
| Rex Chapman |
.546 |
.415 |
22.0 |
1.4 |
5.9 |
| Corey Benjamin |
.639 |
.293 |
29.5 |
0.8 |
11.3 |
| James Collins |
.574 |
.439 |
21.6 |
0.7 |
7.1 |
| Lance Hughes |
.590 |
.477 |
20.5 |
0.7 |
6.4 |
| Isaac Fontaine |
.545 |
.450 |
22.2 |
0.9 |
8.2 |
| James Harden |
.564 |
.356 |
23.8 |
1.3 |
9.0 |
This is sort of a mixed bag that includes the game’s greatest player, a few all-stars, several journeymen and a few players who didn’t make it. As for the players who fell short: Benjamin was an erratic, foul-prone player who just never got it together. These numbers are for a season where his playing time was limited to less than 700 minutes because of foul trouble. Collins never duplicated this season or even came close. Hughes had the low RSB40 and A/TO. As for Fontaine, he just never made it. I wish I had a better explanation than that, but this is something that happens. Harden doesn’t have any of those issues. He’s a steady player who isn’t prone to fouling. He’s also slated to be drafted in the top 5, whereas Fontaine went undrafted, meaning he’s going to get opportunities that may have never been given to Fontaine.
These tables place Harden somewhere between Rex Chapman and Michael Jordan. That doesn’t mean much, but it does show how difficult this process can be sometimes. Many different things are going to affect a player’s ultimate performance, including his team situation, health and attitude. I can say that right now James Harden has the goods to become a star. He does everything a good NBA SG needs to do and he does them all well. The comp to Brandon Roy has been made and that’s probably a good one. Like Roy he’s big, multi-skilled and deceptively quick. He’s a good defender and passes well enough that he might be able to run the point occasionally. Harden is a player who should do very well at the next level and would be well worth the top 5 pick he’s rumored to be drafted with.
Most similar players to James Harden:
Tom Kleinschmidt sophomore: .918
Delonte West, sophomore: .916
Jim Jackson, freshman: .907
Dijon Thompson, sophomore: .907
George McCloud, junior: .905
Like the players similar to Evans, this isn’t a terrible group, but you’d like it to be more impressive. For now I’ll blame my system.
3. Marcus Thornton, LSU: Thornton had a great year, but it came following a season where he wasn’t much of a prospect at all. He also spent his first two seasons at Baton Rouse Community College, so he sort of burst onto the scene as a senior, which always should make one a little wary. Here are his numbers from his two seasons at LSU:
| Marcus Thornton |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Junior |
.494 |
.377 |
23.3 |
0.6 |
8.7 |
| Senior |
.522 |
.388 |
26.0 |
1.2 |
9.2 |
He improved his game across the board as a senior. Going in I would have said he needed to do 2 things to make himself a prospect, improving his 2-point efficiency and A/TO. He did both and increased his scoring and defensive numbers while doing so. This can be looked at a couple of ways. It’s a good thing when a player recognizes a weakness and improves it. This shows both intelligence and a willingness to put in the effort necessary to make it at the next level. On the negative, because typical successful NBA prospects usually look the part well before their senior years, this might be a case of Thornton being exposed as something less than an elite athlete who just had a great senior year but will be overmatched at the next level. We’re never quite sure on this question, but we can look at similar players and see how they’ve fared. The most impressive number Thornton posted was his 26.0 P40. This is pretty darn good and scoring is the single most important thing an SG prospect can excel at. Here’s Thornton’s season compared to other division I college seniors who also posted over 25.0 P40:
| NCAA Senior SG |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Mitch Richmond |
.525 |
.469 |
25.6 |
1.1 |
8.3 |
| Hersey Hawkins |
.581 |
.394 |
37.1 |
1.7 |
11.5 |
| Brandon Roy |
.537 |
.402 |
25.5 |
1.8 |
9.9 |
| Steve Smith |
.500 |
.407 |
26.5 |
1.1 |
7.2 |
| Derek Anderson |
.552 |
.404 |
28.0 |
2.1 |
9.7 |
| Eric Piatkowski |
.574 |
.366 |
26.6 |
1.1 |
10.5 |
| Anthony Peeler |
.475 |
.417 |
26.4 |
1.1 |
9.0 |
| Tony Delk |
.535 |
.443 |
27.0 |
1.0 |
9.7 |
| Hubert Davis |
.557 |
.490 |
25.8 |
1.2 |
4.5 |
| Lucious Harris |
.525 |
.412 |
25.4 |
1.2 |
8.0 |
| Michael Dickerson |
.510 |
.404 |
25.4 |
0.8 |
8.1 |
| Jeff Grayer |
.523 |
.328 |
27.4 |
1.1 |
12.7 |
| Terry Dehere |
.505 |
.396 |
25.6 |
1.0 |
5.1 |
| Chris Carr |
.500 |
.396 |
26.4 |
0.7 |
11.1 |
| Dennis Hopson |
.550 |
.419 |
31.3 |
1.3 |
12.4 |
| Ed Gray |
.517 |
.302 |
31.3 |
0.6 |
7.5 |
| Shawn Respert |
.472 |
.474 |
30.5 |
1.1 |
6.4 |
| JJ Redick |
.521 |
.421 |
28.9 |
1.1 |
3.8 |
| Shea Seals |
.480 |
.301 |
25.3 |
0.9 |
9.7 |
| Rodney Monroe |
.450 |
.435 |
28.7 |
1.2 |
6.1 |
| Askia Jones |
.461 |
.394 |
28.2 |
0.8 |
7.0 |
| Victor Page |
.381 |
.373 |
28.2 |
1.0 |
10.0 |
| Tony White |
.500 |
.412 |
26.1 |
0.7 |
4.4 |
| Isaac Fontaine |
.531 |
.441 |
25.5 |
0.8 |
6.5 |
| Billy McCaffery |
.502 |
.372 |
25.2 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
| Marcus Thornton |
.522 |
.388 |
26.0 |
1.2 |
9.2 |
Bo Kimble was not included, because his numbers were super-inflated by the fast pace of Paul Westhead’s offense. I’ll also point out that since this list is seniors only, most of the great SGs wouldn’t be on it, because they left school before their senior seasons. Again the successful players typically did the same things well. They hit well over .500 on 2-pointers, kept their A/TO reasonably close to 1.0 and posted an RSB40 over 7.0. With the exception of Dennis Hopson and Jeff Grayer, the others all fell short in one area or another. I have no answers for Hopson’s failure, other than sometimes these things happen. Grayer was likely more of a forward in college. He wasn’t exactly a bust either. He was chosen 13th in the draft and stuck around the league for 9 seasons and 8200 minutes. One of the reasons he never made it big was he never developed any ability to hit the 3-pointer, which was evident in his college numbers. With the exception of Hubert Davis all players who missed on one or more of the benchmarks didn’t make it. Davis stuck around the league a long time, because he was one of the best 3-point shooters the game ever saw. This was also evident in his college numbers. Thornton hits all the benchmarks comfortably, so this is obviously a good sign for him. The question now is how good a player will he become. The top 4 are the all-stars, though Smith isn’t really on the level of the others. He’s a Miller and made only 1 all-star game. Their numbers were strong across the board. I wouldn’t put Thornton on their level. Richmond was a much better shooter. Hawkins and Roy both posted PG-like A/TO numbers. Anderson, who would probably be the best of the rest, was also a part-time PG. Thornton just hasn’t displayed this type of skill. With the next group, from Anderson down to Grayer, he fits in fairly comfortably. The one concern I’d have is most of these players topped .400 on their 3-pointers. Thornton is close at .388. This isn’t a huge difference, but it’s worth noting. The important thing is his .388 doesn’t scream “bust” like Gray’s A/TO, Monroe’s 2-point pct, or Redick’s low RSB40.
Thornton looks to me like a capable NBA SG. At LSU he’s done every important thing at a level NBA SGs need to perform at. If he gets the right opportunity, I feel he’ll be a solid player with an outside shot at becoming a one- or two-time all-star. The problem could be getting that opportunity. As a likely late round 1 draftee, Thornton isn’t going to be handed anything, so he’s going to have to work for a place in the league. He might find PT hard to come by off the bench, because he doesn’t really have one skill like an ability to shoot the lights out or being a lockdown defender. This is a player who went from JC to one of division I’s elite players in two years though. In his time at LSU he improved every weakness there was in his game to bring himself up to the level of a likely first round draftee. In that sense he’s shown himself to be a smart, hard-working, determined player who will work and improve to get where he wants to be. While he’s not at the level of Harden and Evans in this PG class, I feel he’s the next best thing.
Most similar players to Marcus Thornton:
Voshon Lenard, junior: .913
Tony Delk, junior: .901
Dave Johnson, junior: .900
Dennis Scott, junior: .897
Jeff Grayer, junior: .894
Not a bad group to be in with. Four of the five played for a relatively long time.
4. Wayne Ellington, North Carolina: One of the most consistent statistical rules with SG prospects has been they have to score a lot of points. It’s been almost an imperative that they’re over 20.0 P40 or you can pretty much write them off as nothing more than a replaceable rotation regular. This has been true since the 80s. There have been only 3 SGs who became all-stars after failing to reach 20.0 P40 as college juniors or seniors, Clyde Drexler, Jeff Hornacek and Alvin Robertson. None of these 3 played SG in college either. Drexler was more of a SF, while Robertson and Hornacek were PGs. I’ve seen players with excellent non-scoring stats who were under 20 P40 and these players barely made a ripple in the league. Examples are DJ Strawberry, Francisco Garcia, Greg Minor, Keith Langford, Alan Anderson and Mike Gansey. Even players who failed to reached 20.0 as a junior, but went on to do it as a senior, as Ellington would be expected to if he returned to NC, have only experienced limited success. The best of those players are: Derek Anderson, Brent Barry, Willie Anderson and Lucious Harris. All decent players whose careers any team would be happy with in a player drafted after the lottery as Ellington looks like he will be, but not a player who is irreplaceable.
Ellington is at 19.2 P40. Because of the history involved here I doubt Ellington will be anything better than a rotation regular and possibly nothing more than a journeyman. I’ll add that his situation is different from most players in that he played on a very talented team that had many scoring options and this certainly limited his scoring opportunities. The table below shows that his scoring picked up impressively as the season progressed:
| Wayne Ellington |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Nov-Dec |
.507 |
.356 |
17.7 |
2.4 |
7.9 |
| January |
.511 |
.391 |
19.5 |
1.3 |
6.9 |
| February |
.563 |
.395 |
19.6 |
1.3 |
8.8 |
| March-April |
.575 |
.518 |
20.2 |
1.7 |
5.9 |
Watching him during the tournament he looked like someone who was playing with something to prove. As if he knew this was his final chance to show something to scouts and he wasn’t going to go out with anything other than a bang. Any time a player finishes a season stronger than he started, it’s worth noting because the competition gets much stronger as the season progresses. Most major college prospects seasons start stronger and finish more slowly. Because of this and the fact that his scoring was probably suppressed a little playing at NC I wouldn’t completely write off his chances of becoming a solid starter or even an all-star. His non-scoring numbers are decent enough, as is his size. He seems like as good a candidate as any to eventually break this trend and become an all-star. But he’s also fighting history with his low P40 and for that reason I can’t see him as anything other than an average NBA player.
Most similar players to Wayne Ellington
Chris Carawell, senior: .923
Ben Jacobson, junior: .912
Greg Buckner, junior: .895
Lance Hughes, senior: .893
Keith Langford, senior: .892
5. Gerald Henderson, Duke: There are some numbers prospects should be at if we’re to take them seriously. For SGs the big one is scoring at least 20.0 P40. There are other red flags, such as an A/TO below 0.8 or a RSB40 below 7.0. Another one I haven’t looked at much, but it’s becoming more clear to me that it does matter is the 2-point FG pct. I used to go strictly on FG pct. when looking at a prospects’ efficiency. This is a little vague, because SGs more than any other position score from both inside and outside the arc. Henderson is a good player to discuss this with, because his 2-point pct. is a low .490. Here’s a list of successful NBA SGs who posted a 2-point FG pct. below .500 during their junior seasons:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Michael Redd |
.474 |
.315 |
20.6 |
1.0 |
9.5 |
| Richard Hamilton |
.496 |
.347 |
26.8 |
1.1 |
7.8 |
| Ben Gordon |
.434 |
.433 |
21.5 |
1.6 |
7.2 |
| Aaron McKie |
.416 |
.371 |
19.2 |
1.9 |
9.6 |
| Allan Houston |
.476 |
.418 |
23.2 |
1.2 |
7.4 |
| Anthony Peeler |
.491 |
.414 |
22.5 |
1.4 |
9.4 |
| Gerald Henderson |
.490 |
.336 |
21.3 |
1.1 |
9.0 |
By “successful” I mean that at the very least this player stuck around the league for a long time and got a lot of minutes. I’ll also point out that Kerry Kittle and Michael Finley posted a sub-.500 2-point FG pct. their senior seasons, but this was following numbers of .603 and .535 as juniors, so I didn’t include them. My feeling is that they had proven they could hit the 2-point shot efficiently as juniors. Henderson has yet to prove he can do that. While Henderson is most similar to Redd, this was a down year for Redd in both scoring totals and efficiency. Plus, Redd developed into a great NBA 3-point shooter after he got to the league. The key thing for Henderson will be whether or not he can do the same. In general Henderson lacks the offensive game of most of these players. That doesn’t mean he can’t develop one, but watching him and looking at his stats, he has been more of a tough, hard-nosed defender than anything and I have my doubts that he can develop an offensive game that’s efficient enough to play SG at the next level. I do feel that he has the defensive chops to stick around the league for awhile and this could give him more time to develop that offensive game. Right now I don’t see him as much more than a role player.
Most similar players to Gerald Henderson:
Mitch Richmond, junior: .939
Michael Finley, junior: .936
Doug West, senior: .935
Taquan Dean, junior: .923
Isaac Fontaine, junior: .919
This is impressive. It should be noted that Richmond stepped up as a senior and Finley was a better pro than his college numbers would suggest. That said this makes Henderson’s chances look a tad bit better. As mentioned in the analysis, Michael Redd was also close as was Rip Hamilton. Of course they were also players who outperformed their college numbers. Henderson’s task will be to do the same.
6. Dionte Christmas, Temple: In a deep group like this, Dionte Christmas is a player who could get lost in the shuffle, but he’s not a bad prospect at all. Christmas wasn’t the most efficient scorer this past year, but he has a decent history. He actually makes Harden’s .540/20.0 club as a sophomore.
| Dionte Christmas |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
.353 |
.250 |
12.2 |
1.2 |
7.9 |
| Sophomore |
.542 |
.400 |
23.3 |
0.9 |
6.9 |
| Junior |
.541 |
.369 |
21.2 |
0.9 |
8.1 |
| Senior |
.498 |
.352 |
22.9 |
1.0 |
8.8 |
He was down some as a senior, but this is a player who has shown a consistent ability to score over the magic number of 20.0 P40. He’s done so with efficiency that has gone from very good as a sophomore and junior to so-so as a senior. There are no negative issues with turnovers or defense. He has NBA size. He actually outplayed Harden in a tournament game that Temple lost to ASU. In a normal year Dionte Christmas would be well worth a draft pick in the last part of round 1. This year because of the depth of perimeter players he’s going to be a bargain in round 2.
Most similar players to Dionte Christmas:
Kwame Evans, junior: .942
Randy Foye, senior: .911
JR Bremer, senior: .908
Marcus Bailey, senior: .906
Gerald Paddio, junior: .899
7. Jermaine Taylor, Central Florida: The numbers are incredible to look at. He scores often and efficiently with strong defensive numbers. The A/TO is low, but is that a huge deal? Actually in some cases it has been. Here’s a list of NCAA seniors who scored both often and efficiently, but did so with an A/TO below 0.8:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
RSB40 |
A/TO |
| Bo Kimble |
.554 |
.460 |
43.0 |
13.7 |
0.79 |
| Tre Simmons |
.484 |
.417 |
24.5 |
9.7 |
0.78 |
| Chris Carr |
.500 |
.396 |
26.4 |
11.1 |
0.67 |
| Tony White |
.500 |
.412 |
26.1 |
4.4 |
0.65 |
| Ed Gray |
.517 |
.302 |
31.3 |
7.5 |
0.64 |
| Mo Peterson |
.494 |
.425 |
23.1 |
10.3 |
0.58 |
| Dahntay Jones |
.507 |
.398 |
23.1 |
9.3 |
0.44 |
| Tariq Abdul-Wahad |
.516 |
.366 |
28.5 |
13.2 |
0.41 |
| James Cotton |
.484 |
.368 |
26.2 |
7.4 |
0.40 |
| Mo Almond |
.496 |
.456 |
31.6 |
10.1 |
0.34 |
| Jermaine Taylor |
.551 |
.376 |
32.8 |
9.1 |
0.67 |
Normally I don’t include Kimble in these lists, but since this is more about ratios than totals I felt he belonged. Besides, his numbers are fun just to look at. Basically what this table shows is we’ve been here before with the likes of Taylor. A player like this is too erratic a passer to make a huge impact on the league no matter how much and how well he scores. This has been a career-long problem for Taylor, even before he was a top scorer. His career at UCF has seen A/TO’s of 0.50, 0.71, 0.67 and 0.67. Even MJ posted a 0.7 as a sophomore, but he got that fixed. Taylor hasn’t fixed his weak passing game in 4 college seasons. It’s worth noting that NBA personnel guys seems to be onto players like this too, as only Kimble and Abdul-Wahad were lottery picks from this group. One quick disclaimer I need to make here is that Taylor’s numbers are superior to every player here other than Kimble, whose numbers aren’t real. He scored more often and efficiently than all of them. If there’s a player who could break the trend and go on a nice run Taylor seems like a good candidate. Because his scoring and defensive numbers are so strong, I wouldn’t blame any team that took a chance on him late in round 1. But he’s fighting history here as a prospect and normally the prospect doesn’t win that battle.
Most similar players to Jermaine Taylor:
Lamond Murray, junior: .888
Sam Jacobson, junior: .875
Jamie Brandon, junior: .870
Michael Dickerson, senior: .870
Donta Bright, junior: .868
There isn’t much to be taken from this, as no player was over .900.
8. Danny Green, North Carolina: Green scores even less frequently than teammate Ellington, a player whose future I just questioned because he didn’t score enough in college. This means Green likely faces a steeper climb. One thing Green does poorly is get to the line. He attempted only 61 FTs as a senior. His FTA per 40 minutes of 2.2 and his FTA per 2 point FG attempts of 0.29 are the first and second lowest numbers respectively of any guard prospect this year. I can’t find a prospect from any year who got to the line with less frequency per both minutes and FGAs than Danny Green. Generally player with low FT attempts have been gunners. Dell Curry is probably the best NBA SG who came into the league with a low rate of FT attempts, though his FTA40 of 3.4 is still much better than Green’s.
Green obviously isn’t going to be much of a scorer in the league. He has the low P40 and he doesn’t get the easy points that are had at the FT line. In the tournament he took a backseat to Ellington and Lawson, almost disappearing into the background. This doesn’t mean he can’t find a niche in the league. He is an excellent defender who might be able to guard multiple positions at the next level. This combined with his stellar 3-point shooting and the fact that he’s a low-mistake player should make him somewhat intriguing for a team like the Lakers or Cleveland, because this skill set works nicely next to a superstar.
Most similar players to Danny Green:
Danilo Pinnock, senior: .913
Darren Brooks, senior: .906
Kerry Kittles, senior: .905
Kyle Korver, senior: .899
Hassan Adams, senior: .884
Close behind and above .850 are some pretty good players including Joe Johnson, Mike Miller, Kirk Hinrich, Ron Artest and Billy Owens. That’s good for Green, but this system doesn’t compare things like FTA/40 minutes where Green is very low. Still it’s good that he’s in good company when it comes to the important stats.
9. Wesley Matthews, Marquette: This is another “senior surprise” player. It’s his senior season and suddenly he’s scoring like never before and forcing himself into the draft picture, no matter how crowded the field is. Best thing to do with such players is look at their previous seasons to see if what exactly was going on with them during the time they were invisible as prospects. Here’s Matthews’ career:
| Wesley Matthews |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
.389 |
.438 |
16.1 |
0.7 |
10.2 |
| Sophomore |
.491 |
.288 |
19.5 |
0.9 |
10.5 |
| Junior |
.472 |
.313 |
19.8 |
1.3 |
9.9 |
| Senior |
.517 |
.368 |
20.7 |
1.1 |
8.5 |
He wasn’t much a prospect before his senior year. His main strength was getting to the line. He looks more like a forward than a guard, especially considering the makeup of the Golden Eagles roster. Things changed at Marquette the summer before Matthews’ senior season. Buzz Williams took over as coach and he changed the offense some. Dominic James took fewer shots and became a more traditional PG. Jerel McNeal and Matthews became the top offensive options. This made all 3 players better prospects and Marquette a better team. What I can’t say is whether or not Matthews would have put up similar numbers had Williams been the coach all 4 years, or if Matthews came in an improved player and Williams decided to utilize him more because of that. Either way he’s still somewhat marginal as a prospect. While he did meet all the bench marks, the fact that it took until his senior season to do so and he didn’t exactly blow them out of the water when he did makes it less impressive. There’s also the fact that he still looks a lot like a 6’5” forward. He’s worth a round 2 flyer. He has the size and he did do all the things a SG prospect needs to do. The numbers are shaky though.
Most similar players to Wesley Matthews:
Dwayne Morton, junior: .951
Isaac Fontaine, junior: .932
Antoine Wright, junior .923
Shon Tarver, senior: .923
Eric Piatkowski, junior: .919
10. AD Vassallo, Virginia Tech: Here’s another player who meets all the benchmarks, but just doesn’t really do too much to excite. My biggest concern would be that while his RSB40 is OK, he did have a low number of steals. He never averaged more than 1.0 per game in any of his 4 seasons. That suggests he’s more of a forward. The only other gripes are he’s had some weak A/TO and RSB40 numbers over the course of his career and his P40 didn’t top 20 until this year. He’s in the same boat as Matthews. He’s a player who meets all the requirements, but he’s taken awhile to accomplish this. Because of this he’s worth a look in round 2 or as a free agent if he goes undrafted.
Most similar players to AD Vasallo:
Ricky Paulding, junior: .942
Maurice Jeffers, senior: .936
Kirk Penney, senior: .910
Bobby Simmons, junior: .906
Maurice Ager, junior: .895
11. Jodie Meeks, Kentucky: I’m a little surprised that he hasn’t attracted more attention. He’s not a great prospect, but players who score this frequently for powerhouse programs generally get more attention than he has. I know Kentucky hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse lately, but they’re still college basketball royalty. Probably the fact that he couldn’t lift his team out of their tailspin has a lot to do with it.
Meeks spent 2 anonymous years as a role player for the Wildcats before busting out as the teams’ top scorer this past year. There wasn’t much of a clue that this was coming either:
| Jodie Meeks |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
.481 |
.364 |
15.7 |
1.3 |
6.9 |
| Sophomore |
.289 |
.320 |
15.2 |
1.3 |
5.7 |
| Junior |
.521 |
.406 |
27.1 |
0.7 |
5.6 |
His sophomore season consisted of 11 games and 255 minutes, due to injuries. Like I said there was little clue that this was going to happen. I always like it when a player improves himself and Meeks certainly did that. Improvement in itself doesn’t make him a prospect though. While his scoring stepped up dramatically in quantity and efficiency, his A/TO and RSB40 numbers are both low for a prospect. In fact, these low numbers resemble those of some of the players from the table in the Taylor comment who failed. In this deep class he really doesn’t measure up and seems unlikely to make it.
Most similar players to Jodie Meeks:
Brandon Armstrong, sophomore: .885
Anthony Taylor, senior: .872
Jonathan Modica, senior: .871
Barry Stephens, senior: .866
Reggie Manuel, junior: .861