The NBA has gone through a dry spell when it comes to young SGs. Since Dwyane Wade came into the league in 2003, Brandon Roy and James Harden have been the only SGs to make a major impact and Roy’s career ended prematurely. That could change this year. The 2013 draft features 3 of the better SG prospects I’ve seen in a few years. Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all enter the draft with solid prospect numbers, but also some bust potential. McLemore has been at the top of the mocks since early in the process. Oladipo has been on the rise since January and is now considered a likely top 5 pick. Caldwell-Pope had an equally impressive year and has been getting some lottery buzz as the draft approaches. All 3 are pure SGs, rather than a James Harden type who will run the point on occasion. How much that works against them in a league that has been becoming more dominated by PGs remains to be seen.
A quick recap on what I look for in SG prospects. The P40 should be over 20.0, but some leeway is there for freshmen and sophomores. The 2-point percentage should be at least .500 and the player should show nominal ability to hit a 3-pointer. The S40 should be above 1.3 and the RSB40 above 7.0. Finally a turnover problem is a huge red flag. The number that seems to matter here is an A/TO below 0.8. In each case the higher the statistic the better the prospect.
Here is a list of the best pure SGs to come into the league from the NCAA in the last 30 years or so and the numbers from their best college season, along with the 3 players I’m looking at in this piece. To make the list a player had to have been named to an all-league team once or play in 3 or more all-star games. Combos like Iverson and Arenas weren’t included, because the players in this piece are all pure SGs.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
| Michael Jordan |
551 |
na |
26.5 |
2.2 |
10.8 |
| Clyde Drexler |
536 |
na |
18.3 |
3.8 |
14.5 |
| Reggie Miller |
597 |
439 |
24.4 |
2.2 |
8.3 |
| Mitch Richmond |
525 |
469 |
25.6 |
0.8 |
8.3 |
| Latrell Sprewell |
550 |
398 |
19.7 |
2.0 |
8.5 |
| Ray Allen |
515 |
445 |
25.7 |
2.3 |
11.2 |
| Michael Redd |
506 |
341 |
23.8 |
1.7 |
8.7 |
| Richard Hamilton |
496 |
347 |
26.8 |
1.5 |
7.8 |
| Dwyane Wade |
519 |
318 |
26.8 |
2.7 |
12.2 |
| Joe Johnson |
496 |
368 |
20.1 |
2.5 |
10.3 |
| Brandon Roy |
537 |
402 |
25.5 |
1.8 |
9.9 |
| James Harden |
564 |
356 |
23.8 |
2.0 |
9.0 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
498 |
373 |
22.9 |
2.5 |
11.9 |
| Ben McLemore |
553 |
420 |
19.4 |
1.2 |
8.4 |
| Victor Oladipo |
644 |
441 |
19.6 |
3.1 |
13.3 |
Players are listed with Jordan at the top and the rest in order of the year they were drafted. I’m honestly frightened to place anyone but MJ at the top. What stands out is that with a few exceptions all players scored often and efficiently with defensive numbers that range from solid to great. The only numbers that don’t measure up to my benchmarks are Drexler’s P40, Richmond’s S40 and the efficiency of Hamilton and Johnson. The numbers of Drexler and Jordan were posted before the shot clock came to college ball, so they might be suppressed some. The 3 potential draftees don’t completely measure up to this list. Oladipo and McLemore didn’t score frequently enough. Caldwell-Pope was too inefficient. But all 3 are pretty close and worth exploring as potential top 5 picks. Also worth noting is both McLemore and Caldwell-Pope are younger and less experienced than most of these players were when these numbers were posted.
I had a tough time putting these 3 in order of preference. I eventually went with Oladipo at the top, because his high end of a super role player fits better with the direction the NBA is headed. One thing I worry about with both Caldwell-Pope and McLemore as prospects is both look something like relics from the 90s. The best SGs to come into the league in the past decade, Wade, Roy and Harden have all possessed some PG skills and did a lot of playmaking. Neither Caldwell-Pope nor McLemore has shown the type of playmaking ability that suggests they can become such a player. That’s something I wanted to toss out there. Oladipo hasn’t shown anything in the way of PG skills either, but he has the potential to become the type of superstar sniper/defender that fits the direction the league is going.
Victor Oladipo, Indiana: My system for analyzing prospects is really pretty simple. I look at a player’s stats and find similar players of past years. If the similar players were successful, I deem that player a good prospect. If not, I deem them otherwise. The problem I’m having with Oladipo is there are so few players that have been similar to him. Not too many SGs ever have topped a .600 2-point percentage, let alone the ridiculous .664 Oladipo was at this year. He was dominant in two very important statistics, scoring efficiency and defense, but came up a little short as a scorer. Here are previous major college players who were also over or near .600 in 2PP and posted strong defensive numbers:
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
| Kerry Kittles |
603 |
411 |
23.2 |
2.3 |
9.4 |
| James Posey |
624 |
322 |
21.3 |
2.9 |
15.4 |
| Brent Barry |
586 |
394 |
22.4 |
2.9 |
9.6 |
| Corey Benjamin |
639 |
293 |
29.5 |
2.9 |
11.3 |
| Johnny Rhodes |
599 |
375 |
17.1 |
3.1 |
10.1 |
| Victor Oladipo |
644 |
441 |
19.6 |
3.1 |
13.3 |
This isn’t a terribly impressive group. Kittles’ career was off to a very promising start before injuries limited him. Posey, who was more of a SF, had a nice, long career. He shone mostly as one of the league’s best reserves. Barry got a late start and didn’t really get his career going until he landed in Seattle at age 28. After that he stuck around the league another 10 years playing very efficient ball. Benjamin’s incredible college numbers were for low, 673, minutes. He never made an impact. Rhodes never played in the NBA.
Where Oladipo comes up short is in P40. Historically a P40 of 20.0 has been an important benchmark for SG prospects, especially those in their junior and senior seasons. The top SGs were all closer to 25. The list of players who have made it with a sub-20.0 P40 coming into the league as juniors or seniors, Scott Burrell, Luther Head, Vinnie Del Negro, Corey Brewer, Shannon Brown and Danny Green is hardly the type of player a team would be hoping to get with a top 5 pick. Sprewell is another one, but his 19.7 from the above table was posted in his sophomore year. The history working against Oladipo is that the best NBA SGs coming out of college were all high volume scorers first and foremost. Oladipo comes in as a great defender who scored at a very efficient rate, but has never been the go-to scorer that most great NBA SGs were in college.
The counter argument in Oladipo’s case is none of the players in the above group posted the amazing defensive and efficiency numbers he has, so he might be a special case. The question that should be asked is whether team dynamics suppressed his points. Coming into the 2013 season Oladipo was 4th among returning Hoosiers in scoring and 3rd in FG attempts. His teammate Cody Zeller was the preseason player-of-the-year favorite and SI coverboy. It’s safe to say that coming into the season Victor Oladipo was not going to be counted on as the main man in the Hoosier offense. This table shows Oladipo’s scoring and defensive numbers from his first two seasons along with his breakdown from this past year.
|
Victor Oladipo |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
FGA40 |
| Freshman |
593 |
308 |
16.4 |
2.4 |
11.2 |
11.5 |
| Sophomore |
523 |
208 |
16.2 |
2.0 |
10.9 |
11.9 |
| Nov-Dec |
727 |
455 |
20.8 |
3.7 |
14.0 |
12.0 |
| January |
609 |
667 |
20.6 |
3.6 |
12.9 |
11.5 |
| February |
644 |
375 |
20.3 |
2.4 |
11.9 |
12.3 |
| March |
544 |
333 |
16.2 |
2.4 |
13.8 |
12.8 |
His FG attempts did improve some, but it’s not like he became a high volume scorer or even the go-to player. What concerns me about this table is that in March Oladipo basically went back to being the scorer he was his first couple of seasons. The only reason he scored above 20.0 for the first 4 months of the season is he was scoring at a level of efficiency that probably wasn’t sustainable. His 3-point ability has to be considered questionable, because the only time he was efficient from behind the arc was his 18-34 stretch that went from November through January.
The guards from the best of the era list at the top all shot a lot more frequently as college players than Oladipo. Typically they attempted 17-20 FG per 40 minutes. The only two below 15.0 were Sprewell at 14.5 and Drexler at 14.8. Oladipo had only one game this season where he took more than 12 shots. It was a one-point win over Wisconsin late in the season where he was 7-18. What this says is he may not have the shooter’s mentality or the ability to take over a game offensively that all great SGs had displayed during their college days.
Victor Oladipo is a tough call as a prospect. Other than his incredible defensive numbers there’s not much in his stats that says he’s a future NBA star. He looks like an NBA role player at best, but could become a very valuable one in the right situation. His offense was efficient on a level rarely seen in college ball and that can’t be dismissed. But the fact that he did fade back to his previous levels of offense in March suggests that his percentages of .644 and .441 are an aberration that was driven by a hot streak or possibly something in the Indiana offense that opponents finally adjusted to. A 2PP above .600 is an impressive accomplishment, but it’s never been a stat that led to NBA success. It’s always been more important for SG prospects to score often than efficiently.
In defense of Victor Oladipo as a top 5 pick are his stellar defense, a good size/length/athleticism mix, a great work ethic and enough promise on offense to think he can develop. At the minimum, Oladipo should be one of the better perimeter defenders in the league who may not score often, but won’t hurt a team with poor shot selection. At best he’ll be an all-league defender who can effectively guard 3 positions and eventually develops enough of an offensive game to become a perennial all-star. Because Oladipo is a hard worker and offense has historically been an easier skill to develop as a pro than defense, I feel he has a decent chance to beat history and make the jump from role player to NBA star. Hard work brought him from a non-prospect as a freshman to a possible 2nd-rounder as a sophomore, to a potential top 5 selection as the draft approaches. While he’s not a traditional SG prospect I feel he has shown enough that I feel he’s worthy of a top 5 pick.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia: Caldwell-Pope’s prospect case suffers from bad timing as much as anything. One of the big stories of this draft season has been McLemore and Oladipo. McLemore has been at or near the top of the mocks all year and Oladipo joined him there in May. Caldwell-Pope, despite having numbers that would have made him the top SG prospect in any of the 3 previous drafts, has been eclipsed by those two and has had trouble getting on the radar because if it.
His numbers have been stellar though. He’s a good scorer with great defensive numbers. That’s the starting point for star NBA SGs. Here are the comps. These are former sophs from major colleges who topped 22.0 P40 and 11.0 RSB40 as Caldwell-Pope did this past season.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
| Dwyane Wade |
505 |
346 |
24.4 |
3.4 |
13.9 |
| Ray Allen |
515 |
445 |
25.7 |
2.3 |
11.2 |
| Jerry Stackhouse |
546 |
411 |
22.3 |
1.7 |
13.3 |
| Corey Benjamin |
639 |
293 |
29.5 |
2.9 |
11.3 |
| Kim Lewis |
520 |
293 |
24.1 |
3.3 |
11.2 |
| Richard Roby |
472 |
356 |
22.5 |
2.7 |
11.2 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
498 |
373 |
22.9 |
2.5 |
11.9 |
Wade and Allen are future HOFers. Stackhouse had a long, productive career. Our friend Corey Benjamin makes another appearance. Like Benjamin, Lewis’ numbers were posted in lower minutes. Lewis came of the bench as a sophomore, then missed the next season due to injury and was never the same when he returned. Roby never got his efficiency right and also developed a turnover problem during his final two seasons. Caldwell-Pope’s only issue is the sub-.500 2PP. That’s an obvious problem, but he’s close enough.
In fact a look at his freshman year and splits from this year shows a player who has been pretty safely over.500 for most of his career:
|
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
FGA40 |
| Freshman |
512 |
304 |
17.5 |
2.4 |
9.2 |
16.0 |
| Nov-Dec |
506 |
337 |
22.0 |
2.9 |
12.7 |
17.3 |
| January |
574 |
404 |
21.8 |
3.0 |
10.5 |
14.7 |
| February |
500 |
400 |
22.4 |
1.7 |
11.7 |
15.1 |
| March |
371 |
378 |
28.3 |
2.1 |
12.8 |
21.5 |
It was a cold streak in March when his FGAs took a sudden jump that dropped Caldwell-Pope’s 2PP under the .500 mark. The March numbers are for only 4 games, so small sample rules apply. The only concern I would have is that the efficiency dramatically declined when the FG attempts increased. But for 4 games I don’t think it’s enough to make a big deal about, other than to note it. Also a concern is the fact that he’s only been an adequate 3-point shooter starting in January. The positives from this table outweigh the negatives by quite a bit. Caldwell-Pope is a player who improved his already-solid defense and his previously substandard 3-point shooting from his freshman to sophomore seasons. He took on a larger scoring load without a drop in efficiency. A stat that doesn’t appear here is that he got to the line twice as often during his sophomore year and improved his foul shooting from .654 to .799. That’s a lot of improvement, which of course is a good thing.
Caldwell-Pope’s numbers fit the profile of successful SGs of the past as well as McLemore’s or Oladipo’s. He’s the youngest player of the trio, though by only a week over McLemore. His improvement from his freshman year shows he’s a player who will work on his game. He has NBA size. It’s unfortunate timing that his stellar season was overshadowed by the hype surrounding McLemore and Oladipo. It also didn’t help his visibility as a prospect that his Georgia team had a down year, finishing 15-17.
Caldwell-Pope is a player with a very high upside. SGs with a defensive/scoring combination like this are rare. The biggest concern I have is that he’ll never develop the scoring efficiency necessary to become a solid NBA SG. His lottery case is based on just 2 months of great play and that concerns me. I like that he improved so much, but I would like him better if he did it for another season. But that’s where the guess work comes in. Because he has an all-star upside, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shouldn’t last past the top 10 on draft day.
Ben McLemore, Kansas: McLemore has been something of a darling in the mocks throughout the year. I have not been as much of a fan and expected his star to fade, but as I write this he’s listed #1 overall by NBAdraft.net and #2 by Draftexpress. It has been my feeling that, while he has some impressive numbers, his low numbers of steals say he’s something less than a star at the NBA level. Here are major college players from the past who went on to long careers, despite having at least one season of low steals:
|
Player |
Year |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
| Reggie Miller |
Jr |
556 |
n/a |
27.0 |
1.3 |
7.0 |
| Mitch Richmond |
Sr |
525 |
469 |
25.6 |
0.8 |
8.3 |
| Michael Finley |
Fr |
484 |
361 |
16.6 |
1.2 |
8.8 |
| Allan Houston |
Sr |
504 |
414 |
24.9 |
1.1 |
6.7 |
| Steve Smith |
Jr |
545 |
459 |
23.2 |
0.9 |
9.5 |
| Arron Afflalo |
So |
566 |
366 |
19.0 |
0.7 |
5.9 |
| Eric Piatkowski |
So |
480 |
346 |
19.0 |
1.0 |
10.2 |
| Wesley Person |
So |
607 |
464 |
21.2 |
0.9 |
9.6 |
| Quentin Richardson |
Fr |
534 |
346 |
22.5 |
0.9 |
13.8 |
| JJ Redick |
So |
470 |
395 |
20.5 |
0.9 |
5.0 |
| Fred Hoiberg |
Sr |
459 |
412 |
21.6 |
1.3 |
7.5 |
| Ben McLemore |
Fr |
553 |
420 |
19.4 |
1.2 |
8.4 |
Miller, Finley and Piatkowski all improved their S40 in subsequent years. McLemore may have done the same had he stayed at Kansas a few more seasons. Afflalo probably had his numbers suppressed like all guards playing for Ben Howland seem to. McLemore fits in well with this group. Despite the low steals, most were good rebounders for guards. Most of them stuck in the league because they could score, especially from behind the arc. That’s McLemore’s strength. I could easily see McLemore having a career similar to that of Finley, Houston or even Miller.
I’m not too concerned about his relatively low P40. This was his first college season and he was playing on a loaded roster. His scoring efficiency was excellent from both inside and outside the arc. My guess is his P40 would have improved substantially had he returned for another year at Kansas. But he’d be a better prospect in my view if he had scored more frequently.
I see McLemore as the safest pick of the three, but also as the player with the lowest upside. I don’t feel it’s out of line to project him as an NBA player who will be in the Allan Houston or Michael Finley mold. That could be a few years down the road, because he’s young and needs to become a more aggressive scorer. That’s his upside and should he reach that he’ll be a nice player. It’s just that this type of player has never been my favorite. They’re usually over rated and often overpaid. This certainly isn’t a player I would want with a top 5 pick.