Last week I looked at the top SGs. This piece looks at the rest of the SG field. This is actually a pretty strong SG group when we include Oladipo, McLemore and Caldwell-Pope. This group of SGs has every type. There are the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects that some team may foolishly talk themselves into as early as the late lottery in Jamaal Franklin, Allen Crabbe and Tim Hardaway Jr. There are 5th-year seniors who finally clicked in DJ Seeley and Charles Carmouche. There are a couple of young phenoms coming off disappointing seasons in BJ Young and Archie Goodwin. And a few other who are worth a mention, if not a draft pick. Here are the numbers:
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
| Jamaal Franklin |
490 |
280 |
20.3 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
| BJ Young |
533 |
227 |
20.8 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
| Archie Goodwin |
478 |
266 |
17.4 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
| Erick Green |
509 |
389 |
26.1 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
| Alex Abrines |
524 |
288 |
12.9 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
| Allen Crabbe |
532 |
348 |
20.5 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr |
483 |
374 |
17.2 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
| DJ Seeley |
518 |
412 |
21.6 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
| Charles Carmouche |
529 |
371 |
15.6 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
| Ian Clark |
646 |
459 |
21.8 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
| Tony Snell |
452 |
390 |
16.0 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
| Ramon Galloway |
425 |
412 |
20.9 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
| Nemanja Nedovic |
381 |
343 |
16.6 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| Michael Snaer |
458 |
384 |
18.7 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
| Brandon Paul |
484 |
325 |
19.9 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
| James Kinney |
475 |
327 |
23.9 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
I didn’t include Ricky Ledo who is projected to be drafted early in round 2. Ledo didn’t play college ball and posted no stats, so I can’t form an opinion on him. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal.
Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State: Franklin is one of those players who has the stats of a forward, but the body of a guard. He rebounds better than a lot of bigs. While rebounding in itself doesn’t turn a college guard into an NBA player, it is a sign of NBA level athleticism and that’s what I look for. College guards who topped 10.0 rebounds generally have done pretty well at the next level. Here are major college players who posted a R40 over 10.0 as Franklin has for each of the past two seasons.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
| Clyde Drexler |
536 |
na |
18.3 |
10.1 |
| Andre Iguodala |
493 |
315 |
16.1 |
10.5 |
| Jason Richardson |
546 |
296 |
13.0 |
10.5 |
| James Posey |
624 |
322 |
21.3 |
11.7 |
| Quentin Richardson |
471 |
376 |
19.5 |
11.3 |
| Adrian Griffin |
477 |
333 |
13.0 |
10.4 |
| Jeff Grayer |
545 |
328 |
27.4 |
10.1 |
| Sam Jacobson |
517 |
321 |
16.2 |
10.1 |
| Chris Clack |
534 |
359 |
16.0 |
11.2 |
| JR Giddens |
557 |
333 |
20.2 |
10.9 |
| Jamaal Franklin |
490 |
280 |
20.3 |
11.3 |
Jason Richardson, Jacobson and Clack all were freshmen who played less than 800 minutes. Other than Drexler, who is a HOFer, the success and longevity of the players on this list is related to 3-point ability. The two Richardsons and Posey all stuck in the league for a long time aided by solid 3-point shooting. Grayer and Griffin never developed an effective outside shot and had journeyman careers of less than 10,000 minutes. Franklin and Jason Richardson are the only players on the list with a 3-point percentage below .300. Richardson’s .296 was done as a freshman on only 27 attempts. He boosted that to .402 the next year and has been a stellar gunner as a pro. Franklin was at .325 last year as a sophomore and .502 on 2 pointers, which gives him more hope than his weak numbers from this past year. The biggest thing Franklin could do for his long range prospects is improve his shooting efficiency.
I have him at the top because his great rebounding and defensive numbers suggest he has NBA athleticism. His high end is pretty high, but to get there he needs to score a lot more efficiently than he has.
BJ Young, Arkansas: I’m not sure what happened to him this year. Young was projected as a late lottery pick as recently as the first of this year, a projection I concurred with based on his great freshman season. Now he’s barely hanging on in round two. Here’s a look at what happened in his two seasons:
|
BJ Young |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
A40 |
T40 |
| Freshman |
552 |
413 |
23.7 |
1.8 |
7.0 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
| Sophomore |
533 |
227 |
20.8 |
0.9 |
6.2 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
Arkansas brought in a new coach, Mike Anderson, for the 2013 season. They also lost starting PG Julysses Nobles as a transfer. BJ Young took over at the point as a sophomore and that could have led to some of his struggles. It’s pretty clear he was a better playing SG as a freshman than PG as a soph.
My opinion regarding BJ Young is that he was a pretty impressive prospect as a freshman. His .552 2PP and 23.7 P40 are the numbers of a lottery-bound prospect. The majority of players who will be drafted in round one have not had any seasons as impressive as Young’s freshman season of 2012. His sophomore year was very disappointing, but he still hit an impressive .533 on 2-pointers. There were also some extenuating circumstances his sophomore year, what with the new coach and the position switch that probably affected his numbers.
My theory is that teams should draft mostly on upside. Based on that, I feel BJ Young should be drafted somewhere in the 20-30 range of round 1. His sophomore year is obviously troubling, as is the fact that his defensive numbers were barely good enough even in his strong freshman year. But a player only one season removed from such dazzling offensive numbers has got to be worth more than a late 2nd rounder. This is a player who is still very young, having just turned 20. Any team that can get him back to where he was will be getting one of the bargains of the draft.
Archie Goodwin, Kentucky: Goodwin had a brutal freshman season after some early hype and promise. While his numbers were hardly the type that light up my spreadsheet, I feel Goodwin would be a good round 2 gamble. The first and most important reason is in his final 7 games he showed some nice improvement on offense. Goodwin posted a 2PP of .540 and a P40 of 19.3 during that time. It’s possible he was starting to figure things out offensively just as the season ended and this improvement got lost in Kentucky’s disappointing finish. The other reason I feel Goodwin is worth a gamble is the success Lance Stephenson has had in Indiana this year after being drafted in round 2 in 2010. Goodwin’s status in 2013 is similar to where Stephenson was in 2010. That’s a highly-touted freshman coming off a disappointing first college season. Indiana drafted Stephenson in round two, was patient in letting him develop and now have a solid NBA player who just helped his team extend the mighty Heat to 7 games. While I can’t say Goodwin will follow a similar path, there are worse ideas than giving such him a chance.
Erick Green, Virginia Tech: The ACC player-of-the-year stepped things up nicely as a senior, leading the nation in scoring while posting career high in both percentages at .509 and .389. Also impressive was that he more than doubled his FTA per game, using his .800+ FT shooting ability to get easy points. In addition to an impressive offensive year, Green has shown some PG ability and has posted a S40 as high as 2.3 in the past. His overall defensive numbers have been substandard for 4 seasons and that makes him a less impressive prospect.
I’m always wary of players who emerge as seniors. It’s better than not arriving at all, but it also has been better for a player to arrive as a prospect earlier. Green had 3 seasons of very erratic offense before his senior year. That and his weak overall defensive numbers make him no more than a middle of round 2 pick in my book.
Alex Abrines, Barcelona: The numbers I have for Abrines were posted in the Spanish League. In 170 minutes in the Euroleague he posted a .636 2PP. That’s the type of number I love from a young (19 in Abrines’ case) player in a foreign league. It shows an ability to dominate and that’s what translates best to the NBA.
I don’t want to get too carried away with this guy though based on something he did in only 170 minutes of play. His defensive numbers are weak and he has yet to show consistent 3-point ability. He rates ahead of a lot of the college guys on nothing more than youth and the upside it brings.
Allen Crabbe, California: Might be a poor man’s (or in this case a good team with a later draft pick’s) Ben McLemore. He has the same type of skill set, though he’s nowhere near as good. Like McLemore his strengths are 3-point shooting and rebounding. Don’t be fooled by the .348 this year. He was at .400 for his two previous seasons. Also like McLemore his steals are low.
My problem with Crabbe is ha has struggled to get his P40 above 20.0, finally getting there in this, his junior year. The same could be said about his 2PP, which jumped past .500 for the first time this year. I like the fact that he got past both benchmarks. I don’t like that it took him until his junior year and the fact that the P40 is only marginally acceptable. The type of player I project McLemore’s high end to be is a SG in the mold of Michael Finley or Allan Houston. Crabbe has some similarities to these players, but doesn’t score with anywhere near the frequency. While his skill set is similar to such players, he’s a notch below them in the frequency he scores at. Because of this I have trouble seeing him as more than a marginal prospect.
Tim Hardaway Jr, Michigan: His appeal must have something to do with his NBA bloodlines or Wolverines just being something of a hot item lately with draft geeks. In his 3 seasons he hasn’t scored or defended well enough to think he’ll make any impact in the NBA. With some players I can find a stat or two that makes them promising. I can’t do that with Hardaway, other than to say he’s a decent 3-point shooter. He has never scored over 20 P40 or posted an RSB40 over 7.0. His S40 has been below 1.0 for two seasons in a row. He was over .500 in 2PP only once, in his sophomore year. I read recently where he had a stellar combine and is now a first round lock. That would be a big mistake.
DJ Seeley, Cal State-Fullerton: Seeley is a 5th-year senior who will be 24 a month into the 2013-14 NBA season. He transferred to Fullerton after playing little for a couple of seasons at Cal. He’s an all-Big West player who is roughly the same age as NBA all-stars James Harden and Jrue Holiday. I preface this analysis with this perspective in the event I go a little overboard on a player who has become something of a favorite.
Seeley is a potential NBA sniper/defender, possibly the top one likely to be available in round 2 or as a UFA. In his two seasons at Fullerton he has easily topped .400 from behind the arc on 305 total attempts. He also topped 7.0 in RSB40 both seasons and led the Big West in steals this past year. This past season he was flashed some PG ability for the first time in his career, leading the Titans in assists with an A40 of 4.7. The rest of his offense is shaky. He only topped .500 in 2PP this past season for the first time and that was mainly due to a hot start and possibly missing the season’s final 4 games with a foot injury. That and the usual 5th-year senior and transfer reservations apply here. Seeley has shown enough in his final year that he’s a good late round two gamble.
Charles Carmouche, LSU: Something of an NCAA vagabond for the last 5 years. He started at New Orleans, playing starter minutes by his sophomore season. He moved on to Memphis for 1 full season and 7 games of another. Last year he ended up at LSU for his final season. All that and he’s still younger than DJ Seeley.
I look at Carmouche as being the same type of prospect as Seeley. He has shown enough that he might become a decent sniper/defender in the NBA. He has hit .375 on 323 three-point attempts in his last 4 years. He posted an S40 of 2.9 this year and has been consistently well over 7.0 in RSB40. For his 7 games in Memphis and this past year he has displayed some nice PG skills as well. Particularly impressive are his low turnovers. He’s definitely a long shot being a 5th-year senior who has never been a high-volume scorer and has 2 transfers in his past. But he has shown enough different talents at different times that he’s well worth a look.
Ian Clark, Belmont: A good prospect as a gunner. Clark has hit over .400 in all four seasons as a Bruin with a career mark of .425. This type of consistency says he’s a pure shooter. He’s also been over .500 from inside the arc all 4 years, topping out at an Oladipian .649 mark this past year. One thing I noticed when analyzing Victor Oladipo is crazy high 2PPs posted by SGs are often fluky and shouldn’t be taken too seriously when they happen for just one season and are way outside the career norms, as it is in Clark’s case. There isn’t much else other than scoring ability that excites here. The defense is weak and there’s little in his passing numbers that suggest PG skills. But he can shoot as well as any player in the draft.
Tony Snell, New Mexico: I can understand why Snell has some fans. He looks the part, being extremely long with a wingspan near 7’. But going down the statistical checklist, the only thing I find to like other than size is a decent ability to hit the 3-pointer. The defensive numbers are weak, he doesn’t score at anywhere near the frequency an NBA SG needs to and his 2PP was .452, suggesting he has no idea how to utilize all that length.
Players with low defensive numbers and 2PPin college, like Snell, who have gone on to play big minutes in the NBA have been able to do one thing, hit a 3-pointer. That ability has kept players like Hubert Davis, Steve Kerr, Brandon Rush and Jodie Meeks in a rotation over the years. While Snell has never been over 40% from behind the arc, he has seasons of .387 and .390. It’s a long shot, but Snell is a candidate to become such a player.
Ramon Galloway, LaSalle: NCAA hero who shot down K State and Ole’ Miss while leading the Explorers to a surprise Elite 8 appearance. Galloway transferred to LaSalle from South Carolina following his sophomore year. I don’t like transfers much and transfers who can’t get their 2PP over .500 are even worse. Galloway does have some potential as a sniper/defender type, though I’d prefer both Seeley and Carmouche .
Nemanja Nedovic, Lietuvos Rytas: A 21 year-old combo playing in Greece. His appeal would be that he can play either guard position. His 5 seasons in the Adriatic and Euro league don’t feature many impressive numbers. The best being S40 numbers of 2.9 and 2.4 in 2010 and ’11, though the former number was in only 123 minutes. His other defensive numbers aren’t as impressive and overall he doesn’t look like much of a prospect to me.
Michael Snaer, Florida State: Snaer was highly-touted 5 years back as one of the top prep SGs in the nation. He played OK at FSU for 4 seasons, but never became the player he was expected to be. The fact that he was once a pretty strong prospect probably keeps him in the draft picture, the solid outside shot he has developed helps his case too.
Brandon Paul, Illinois: Same thing I wrote about Snaer applies here also. Paul wasn’t as highly-touted coming in, but he has been a solid 4-year starter for a major college program. He played well for the Illini, but as a prospect he comes up short.
James Kinney, San Jose State: Kinney left the Spartans on January 8th following a suspension for a violation of team rules. I feel he’s worth a mention, even though his college career didn’t go as planned. He attempted almost nine 3-pointers per game in his two seasons at San Jose State, hitting .398 in 2012 and .327 in 2013. This past season he posted an RSB40 of 7.8 with a 2.6 S40 in the 14 games he played. The rest of his profile is mostly negative. His efficiency inside is terrible and he’s small for a shooter/defender at 6’2”.
One thing to note about Kinney is that his team was much better with him in the lineup. The Spartans were 9-6 with Kinney and 0-14 when he was out. I realize that there are probably some other factors for the disparity. But this suggests there might be some intangibles that he brings. I know it’s hard to pair intangibles with a player who missed half the season for a violation of team rules, but the with/without record is pretty impressive. That and the fact that he has shown some promise as a sniper/defender makes Kinney a player worth a mention here.