NBA Draft 2013: Sleeper SFs James Ennis and Maurice Kemp

These are a couple of similar SFs who have caught my eye and merit a special look. Both are seniors who haven’t been on the prospect radar for various reasons before this season. Both have had 3 college stops in 4 years. Both bring solid all-around games. Both are slender players with a wingspan near 7’. Both have shown promising ability to score, rebound, pass and defend this past season. Because all-around games are strengths for both I’ll show them with the same players I used as comps for Otto Porter:

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40	A/TO
Paul Pierce	560	339	26.9	8.8	6.3	0.9
Shawn Marion	573	299	22.8	11.3	6.8	0.9
Robert Horry	519	350	18.7	10.0	8.9	0.9
Danny Granger	563	433	25.1	11.8	8.6	1.0
Danny Manning	593	346	28.2	10.2	6.6	0.7
Donyell Marshall	567	311	29.5	10.4	7.2	0.6
Josh Howard	558	329	20.3	11.3	6.7	1.0
Rodney Rogers	648	380	25.2	10.5	6.2	1.2
Stacey Augmon	619	469	21.8	9.6	8.7	2.0
Lionel Simmons	517	477	27.8	11.7	8.0	1.3
Ryan Bowen	607	533	21.0	12.7	7.9	1.1
Ed O’Bannon	571	433	23.8	9.7	6.1	1.0
Gerald Glass	565	376	31.4	9.5	6.5	0.7
Terence Morris	604	355	20.9	9.7	7.3	0.8
Maurice Kemp	539	276	21.3	9.0	6.0	1.3
James Ennis	585	357	19.6	7.9	6.1	0.7

Kemp does come up short as a 3-point shooter. Ennis is low on rebounds and his A/TO is also weak. Both also come with the stigma of having been invisible before their senior years. This piece isn’t to suggest that either one is a prospect on the level of Otto Porter. Both are good prospects who seem to be undervalued in the mocks, but both are looking at a long road to reach their potential. Here’s a look at the prospects of each:

James Ennis, Long Beach State: Ennis played at a couple of JCs before enrolling in LBSU as a junior for the 2011-12 season. He was a star at the JC level, scoring over 1000 points in his 2 years, winning first team all-conference honors as a freshman at Oxnard College and as a sophomore at Ventura College. He also high jumped 6’11”, which shows he’s a pretty darned good athlete.  I don’t have any comprehensive JC stats, so I’ll just post the numbers for his two seasons at LBSU:

James Ennis	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40	A/TO
Junior	661	350	13.8	5.7	6.8	1.3
Senior	585	357	19.6	7.9	6.1	0.7

His junior year he came to a 49er team that was dominated by 3 seniors, Casper Ware, Larry Anderson and TJ Robinson. Ennis finished 4^th in scoring as a junior, but was a very efficient scorer and a much better passer. With the core of the team gone, Ennis took over the scoring lead as a senior, keeping his efficiency and defense solid. The passing did decline some.

What I look for when I look at the entire career of a player like Ennis is whether extenuating circumstances kept him from emerging as a prospect until his senior year, or if the senior year was something of an aberration, making it possible it was a little more of a fluke. In Ennis’s case I think it’s clear there were circumstances that kept him hidden. Playing at a junior college, even if a player excels as Ennis did for two seasons, keeps any player out of the spotlight. His first year at LBSU, he played a supporting role to 3 seniors who were entrenched as the core and excelled, hitting 66% of his 2-pointers, while defending and passing well. As a senior he finally stepped into the lead role and was one of the best SFs in the nation. The fact that he excelled in whatever role he was in, be it JC star, super role player, or lead scorer tells me that James Ennis probably could have stood out immediately at any college program and there’s nothing fluky or surprising about his great senior year.

So how good of a prospect is James Ennis? Defense is his strength. In his 2 seasons at LBSU he was over 2.0 S40 and 1.0 B40 both years. His long wingspan just adds to the potential. He’s also something of a sleeper as a scorer, with a couple seasons of incredible 2PP marks and a solid 35% from behind the arc. It would be nice if he were a more aggressive scorer though. He only tied for the team lead in FG attempts, despite leading the team in scoring by a significant margin. I would also like him better if the rebound rate were a little higher. He’s also a smidge older than most seniors, turning 23 a week after the draft.

Using the low end/high end game, at the very least James Ennis looks like a quality NBA defender capable of hitting the 3-pointer at an acceptable rate. That in itself is a player worthy of a round one look. His high end is an all-star SF. That’s a long shot at this point, but considering his defense and the potential he has shown as a scorer it is one well worth taking at some point in the 2^nd half of round one. James Ennis is one of the sleepers of the 2013 draft.

Maurice Kemp, East Carolina: Kemp burst onto the scene his senior year after 3 very uneventful years. He started at Alabama A&M as a freshman, playing only 357 minutes. His next year was spent at Miami Dade CC. He transferred to ECU the following year and was a starter by midway through his junior year. He didn’t take any years off during his journey, so he’s 22, the age of a typical senior.

Because he had his first outstanding season as a senior, I wanted to look at Kemp’s career to see what sort of a player he was while developing:

Maurice Kemp	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40	A/TO
Freshman	511	348	16.6	8.5	4.4	0.5
Junior	515	238	18.0	10.8	5.4	0.6
Senior	539	276	21.3	9.0	6.0	1.3

I have no stats for his sophomore year at JC other than his .522 3PP. That from the college website and does help his prospect case. The numbers for his freshman year are for only 357 minutes. What improved most as a senior was his passing and ball handling. He improved his assist rate and cut his turnovers by a lot. It’s very impressive that his turnovers declined by 40% while his usage increased.

Improvement is a tough thing to factor. It is always a good thing, but some improvement is more impressive than other. If it’s just a case of an already efficient player getting an opportunity and more usage, like appears to be the case with James Ennis, I don’t take that away from a prospect too much. With Kemp his transformation went from a low-minute freshman to one of the best SFs in the nation as a senior. He was semi-productive as a scorer, but there was little about him that suggested he was an NBA prospect until his senior year. I always prefer a prospect to look the part from the start and that hasn’t been the case with Kemp.

The good thing is the improvement he showed as a senior was across the board and included him becoming more efficient and more productive. Because it was across the board, my feeling is that Kemp’s improvement is a good measure of his ability and NBA potential. Kemp strikes me as a late-bloomer. He came in as a great athlete, but had to go through some growing pains to get to where he is as a basketball player now.

Kemp is a player who has shown solid ability as a scorer, passer, rebounder and defender. Such players are rare and should be drafted at some point. The big issue is he hasn’t been a consistent 3-point shooter. That will have to come around. He has had some success from behind the arc in the past, hitting .348 on 23 attempts as a freshman and .522 on 44 attempts as a soph in junior college.  Whether he can develop a more consistent shot will probably tell the story of his NBA career. My feeling is that because a 3-point shot seems to be the easiest skill to develop, taking a chance on such a player isn’t a huge risk.

The negatives with Kemp are something of a checklist of non-statistical red flags I look for. He’s had 3 college stops in 4 years. He didn’t emerge as a prospect until his senior season. He’s very slight at 6’7” and 176 lbs. There’s also his shaky 3-point ability. That all being out there I still can’t let this guy slip out of round one if I’m drafting. He clearly has NBA-level ability. There are some serious red flags out there, but his high end is as good as any SF available and such a player can’t be left on the board too long. Maurice Kemp should be drafted in round one.