Also known as a stretch 4 or a tweener, this group is something of a catchall for forwards who don’t fit. Either their size or statistics suggest they belong in a different role than what they played in college. All have some skill that could translate to NBA success. Such players have become more valuable as the trend is towards smaller lineups.
The recent NBA success of such players is Ryan Anderson. Coming out of Cal as a sophomore, Anderson’s strengths were 3-point shooting and rebounding. He had some of the worst defensive numbers imaginable and his 2-point shooting was ordinary. In the NBA Anderson has been a similar player to what he was at Cal, just with a higher percentage of his shots coming from behind the arc. The fact that Anderson’s success has come because his coaches just let him do what he does best, we could see a trend towards more specialization. That’s where these guys come in.
One thing that makes the small lineups a serious trend that will only start happening more frequently is that the Heat just won the title making extensive use of playing a SF at PF and a PF at center. When that SF is LeBron James such a move is easier, but that fact that it was successful will have teams looking for players who can defend such lineups. The ability to go small will become a necessity for teams looking to stay competitive. That’s why these combo forwards who previously may have been deemed too small or too slow may now find themselves more in demand. Here are the numbers:
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Anthony Bennett |
587 |
375 |
23.0 |
11.6 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
| Robert Covington |
461 |
388 |
21.4 |
10.0 |
4.8 |
0.5 |
| Andre Roberson |
521 |
328 |
12.9 |
13.3 |
4.1 |
0.6 |
| Jake Cohen |
541 |
388 |
23.6 |
8.4 |
3.7 |
0.9 |
| Leonard Washington |
604 |
159 |
17.3 |
11.4 |
4.2 |
0.8 |
| Livio Jean-Charles |
567 |
429 |
9.7 |
7.9 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
| Grant Jerrett |
413 |
405 |
11.5 |
7.9 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
| Erik Murphy |
579 |
453 |
18.5 |
8.4 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
| Elias Harris |
555 |
170 |
21.6 |
11.0 |
2.6 |
0.9 |
| Laurence Bowers |
578 |
389 |
20.2 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
| Ryan Kelly |
473 |
472 |
17.7 |
7.3 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
| Bojan Dubljevic |
558 |
474 |
17.1 |
8.8 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
| CJ Leslie |
522 |
333 |
18.1 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal, but after Bennett it’s a very close group. The 12 players listed after Bennett are roughly on the same level as prospects. That’s a player who has shown some NBA ability, but also has a lot of question marks. The few who succeed will be the ones who get in the right situation and work the hardest. I wouldn’t admonish any team for drafting Ryan Kelly ahead of Robert Covington late in round 2, because team needs can vary.
Anthony Bennett, UNLV: I decided to list Bennett with this group. I had been planning to do a separate piece on him, as I do with some of the better prospects, but he’s just too cut and dried as a prospect, that a longer analysis is sort of pointless. We know he’ll be solid. It’s unlikely he’ll be much better than that, because there’s little in his numbers that is dominant. I see him as much of a combo as a PF. He can score from inside and out. He looks like he could fill a stretch 4 role and possibly SF. His defensive numbers do come up short for a PF prospect and that is what keeps me from being too high on him, despite what was an excellent freshman year. For comps I looked for freshmen who scored and rebounded with at least a combined 34.0 P40 and R40 and hit at least .500 and .300 on the percentages. This isn’t a large group and the fact that all but one of them had or will have long, productive careers says a lot about how impressive Bennett’s freshman year was.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Kevin Love |
611 |
354 |
23.8 |
14.5 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
| Keith Van Horn |
541 |
443 |
24.7 |
11.2 |
3.2 |
0.4 |
| Troy Murphy |
547 |
308 |
23.3 |
12.0 |
3.2 |
0.5 |
| Michael Beasley |
562 |
379 |
31.3 |
14.7 |
3.5 |
0.4 |
| Anthony Bennett |
587 |
375 |
23.0 |
11.6 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
One thing to know about Love is his SB40 improved during his freshman year, while Beasley’s was in decline. With that in mind, Love was clearly the top prospect of this group at the time they were freshmen. I have trouble seeing Bennett as another Love. Love was a much better rebounder and passer and a more efficient scorer. Beasley has struggled to match the promise of his freshman year and seems on his way to going down in history as one of the all-time draft busts.
Van Horn and Murphy both went on to long careers and might be the best comps for Bennett’s future. Both were taller, but neither had Bennett’s 7’1” wingspan. Both were solid journeymen who stuck around the league for a long time. Both made up for deficiencies on defense with a good inside-outside offense. That describes Bennett pretty well.
The decision with drafting Bennett becomes when does a team start to pass on players with a lower floor, but a higher ceiling and go with more of a sure thing in Bennett? That’s an important question in a draft full of low floor/high ceiling types. Any team looking for an immediate payoff from this draft would do well to look in Bennett’s direction. He’ll probably step right in and help as a rookie and there will be no surprises or disappointments. My feeling is that he should rank somewhere between 5 and 10.
Robert Covington, Tennessee State: Covington’s junior year in 2012 was good enough to merit a first round draft pick. This year he struggled with his shot and injuries and seems unlikely to be drafted now. Here’s a look at his career:
|
Robert Covington |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
447 |
385 |
16.9 |
9.2 |
3.0 |
0.6 |
| Sophomore |
514 |
460 |
17.3 |
9.8 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
| Junior |
570 |
448 |
22.9 |
9.9 |
3.6 |
0.6 |
| Senior |
461 |
388 |
21.4 |
10.0 |
4.8 |
0.5 |
He has always been an excellent defender and 3-point shooter. That makes him a decent sniper/defender candidate, though his turnovers are a tad high. It is possible that he’s more than that. The junior year was something special and if he can get back to that point, he would be one of the bargains of the draft.
Covington did suffer an injury his senior year. He tore his meniscus in a December game against Middle Tennessee and missed the following 10 games. While this was a tough break, Covington was hardly replicating his great junior year at the time of the injury:
|
Robert Covington |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Pre-Injury |
465 |
346 |
23.4 |
10.1 |
4.0 |
0.7 |
| Post-injury |
456 |
431 |
19.7 |
9.9 |
5.5 |
0.4 |
He played 11 games before the injury and was not the player he had been as a junior, mainly because his scoring efficiency fell way off. Where the injury hurt him is it set back any chance he had of fixing what was wrong with his offense. He did start to pick things up as the season closed, hitting .538 and .400 in March. It was too little too late to save his season though. This was obviously a bad time to have his worst season.
Covington’s circumstances could make him something of a bargain though, as it appears he’ll be available late into the draft. While his junior year was sensational, I suspect it is also something of an aberration because it is so far beyond his 3 other years and he appeared to be back near his previous norms before the injury. But even if we took the junior year is out of the equation, Robert Covington is still a player with a deadly outside shot and serious potential as a defender. He’s a good round 2 pick.
Andre Roberson, Colorado: Roberson is an excellent all-around player who rarely shoots the ball. That’s a problem, because infrequent scorers rarely make a ripple in the NBA. If we focus simply on the skills he flashed as a collegian, Roberson would appear to have a place in the NBA. He’s a great rebounder and defender. He’s hit 35% of his 3-pointers. Most of the low volume scorers who have made some impact were rebounding/defense grunts like Michael Ruffin, Jerome Williams and Jaime Feick. Those 3 were all PF size. Roberson is 6’7” 210, which makes him small even by SF standards. That could be problematic should he need to guard bigger PFs.
If we’re looking at comparable SFs, there just aren’t that many out there who scored less than 15 P40 and rebounded and defended as well as Roberson has. Here are 3 recent college SFs who have some similarities to Roberson.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Damian Saunders |
593 |
189 |
15.2 |
11.5 |
5.8 |
0.7 |
| Renaldo Balkman |
624 |
308 |
16.0 |
10.5 |
5.0 |
1.1 |
| Kawhi Leonard |
478 |
291 |
19.8 |
13.5 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
| Andre Roberson |
521 |
328 |
12.9 |
13.3 |
4.1 |
0.6 |
For Saunders and Balkman these are junior year stats. For Leonard it is his sophomore season, which was his last as a collegian. Balkman played 3064 minutes for the Knicks and Nuggets over the course of 6 seasons. Saunders has yet to see the NBA, but has been a similar player in 2 NBDL seasons. Leonard of course is one of the NBA’s bright young stars. Roberson has the same low-volume scoring/strong defense numbers as Saunders and Balkman. Like those two he has flashed some 3-point prowess, but not nearly enough to consider him a lock to become an NBA-level gunner. Leonard scored more frequently than all 3, but is similar to Roberson in that the only number that really stood out as dominant at this point in his career was his 13+ R40.
Obviously it’s a crazy stretch to call Roberson the next Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is 20 lbs heavier and has a wingspan 4 inches longer. Leonard is the better passer and turned the ball over less. Leonard’s game took a big jump the year after he went pro and such dramatic improvement is rare. What makes Roberson intriguing is his dominant rebounding skill, something that has been consistent in his 3 seasons at Colorado, could be a sign of NBA-level ability.
For that reason I see Roberson as a good round 2 selection. It’s never a good sign when a player scores as infrequently as he has. He also has that PF in a SF body problem. But anyone who rebounds this well at the major college level has some ability and should get a look.
Jake Cohen, Davidson: It is a little puzzling to me that Cohen hasn’t gotten more buzz as a potential NBA stretch 4. Cohen’s rebounds were down this year, but in previous seasons he’s been at 9.9 and 10.7 R40. His 3PP has improved steadily every year from .311 to .333 to .366 to the .388 mark this past season. His SB40 has consistently been well over 3.0, with the majority of that being blocks, a good sign for a bigger player.
While he doesn’t have the all-around upside of Roberson or Covington, Cohen is the best candidate in this draft to become the traditional stretch 4. That’s a player who can hit the trey efficiently enough that opposing bigs have to respect him, but still provides adequate defense, rebounding and inside scoring when it’s needed.
Leonard Washington, Wyoming: Since transferring from USC after his sophomore season, Washington’s 2 seasons at Wyoming have seen him top .600 on 2-pointers, 11.0 R40 and 4.0 SB40 both years. Here is the list of previous major college PFs who have accomplished this in one season: Charles Barkley, Chris Webber, Elton Brand, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Rasheed Wallace, Christian Laettner, Laphonso Ellis, Kenyon Martin, Chris Gatling, Kenny Thomas, Etan Thomas, Brian Skinner, Tyrus Thomas, Stromile Swift, Josh Boone, Richard Hendrix and Joey Dorsey. There are 9 all-stars in that group. There were a couple of busts (both from LSU) and a few players who never made a ripple in the NBA, but this is a nice list to be on and Washington made it twice.
I don’t want to go overboard on this guy, just point out that his statistics are pretty strong. It is much more likely that Washington’s career will follow that of Hendrix or Dorsey rather than Barkley or Webber. He’ll turn 25 a month after the draft, so both his seasons of .600/11/4 were done as an older college player. That they came following two less impressive seasons at USC dims the accomplishment some. The fact that he launched 82 3-pointers at a .159 rate tells me he needs to work on his shot selection too. What I like is that he excelled in the 3 most important PF stats. At some point I think bringing him in for a summer league look just to see what the deal is with this guy would be a good idea. I mean maybe he can focus on defense and rebounding and build on the .304 3PP he posted as a junior.
Livio Jean-Charles, Villeurbanne: The numbers I have for him were posted in 400 minutes and are a huge improvement on his previous 2 pro seasons. Other than his percentages, his stats just don’t jump out. Because the percentages improved so much in one year and were put up in low minutes, my suspicion is they’re a mirage that would decline with more playing time. While I can’t warm to him as a prospect, Jean-Charles is only 19 and has a 7’2” wingspan. I wouldn’t blame any team for rolling the dice on such a specimen in round 2.
Grant Jerrett, Arizona: The American Livio Jean-Charles. He came to Arizona as the #9 prospect in the nation. He was only able to get on the court for 17.8 minutes per game. There’s very little in his numbers to suggest he can play PF at the NBA level. The only impressive number is the .405 3PP. Drafting Jerrett is taking a chance on an athlete who has displayed none of the qualities one would look for in an NBA PF. As is the case with Jean-Charles I wouldn’t blame a team for rolling the dice on such a player late in round 2, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for him to make an impact.
Erik Murphy, Florida: From a purely offensive standpoint Murphy is the top stretch 4 out there. I prefer Cohen, because he’s more versatile. Murphy’s defense and rebounding are a problem. He only topped 9.0 R40 once, during his freshman year when he played low minutes. His SB40 has hovered in the 2.0-2.5 range his entire career.
He can fill it up though from both inside and outside the arc, improving every year and topping out at .579 and .453 this year. If a team can figure a way to minimize his shortcomings on the boards and defense, he has the potential to be a deadly offensive weapon.
Elias Harris, Gonzaga: Harris has been a solid player for 4 college seasons, but hasn’t stood out as a prospect mainly due to weak defensive numbers. What hurt his prospects this year is that his 3-point shot went missing. He had been at .451, .353 and .414 his first 3 seasons before dropping to .170 as a senior. I’m inclined to write this off as a slump, because it was on only 51 attempts. But it was a season-long slump, which is a tad scary.
Assuming he can get the outside shot back to where it was, Harris does have some of the qualities a stretch 4 needs. The inside scoring and rebounding skills are adequate. He does come up a little short defensively. The big thing is knocking down that 3-pointer. He had 2 years where he was over .400. The key will be for him to find that touch again. He’ll turn 24 two weeks after the draft, which is a negative. As far as draft position, I would start thinking about Harris as the draft gets into the final 10 picks.
Laurence Bowers, Missouri: Bowers is a 5th-year senior who missed the 2011-12 season (would have been his senior year) after tearing his ACL in the pre-season. He came back strong this season, leading the Tigers in scoring. His rebounding and defensive numbers were weak, but the latter could have been a result of playing in the season following ACL surgery. He had put up solid defensive numbers previous to this year.
|
Laurence Bowers |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
587 |
0 |
17.3 |
11.3 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
| Sophomore |
572 |
400 |
17.0 |
9.5 |
4.3 |
1.1 |
| Junior |
544 |
0 |
17.0 |
8.9 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
| Senior |
578 |
389 |
20.0 |
8.7 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
He played only 214 minutes that freshman year, so that 11.3 R40 should be taken with a grain of sea salt. He has to be considered a substandard rebounder. The good thing is that pre-injury he was a stellar defender and a good passer. The further he gets away from the injury it is possible that the defense will get back to where it was. His inside scoring skills are solid. Outside the arc he is a little more questionable. He’s at .337 during his career on 92 attempts. Good, but I’d like it to be better.
Bowers is a good college player who needs to improve some parts of his game. He could make it should he land in the right situation. The poor rebounding is the biggest concern. Should he get his defense back to where it was and prove the .389 3PP mark of this year is his real level of ability, he should be able to stick as a reserve.
Ryan Kelly, Duke: Kelly falls way short on two important benchmarks, 2-point shooting and rebounding. In only one of his 4 seasons did he finish over .500 on 2-pointers. That was his soph season when he hit an impressive .635 on only 3 attempts per game. As a rebounder he only snagged as many as 8.0 R40 once. Those are SF numbers at best. I could see Kelly’s 3-point prowess being useful as a change-up in the right situation. He’s also a decent defender. But there are too many negatives in his game and too many better similar prospects to burn a draft pick on him.
Bojan Dubljevic, Valencia: He’s listed as a PF-center, but his stats look like that of a 6’10” 3-point popper with substandard defense and rebounding skills. That puts him in the same group as Cohen, Murphy, Kelly, Harris and Bowers. He’s 21, so he doesn’t have the upside of Jerrett or Jean-Charles.
CJ Leslie, North Carolina State: The one thing I want to point out with Leslie is the .333 3PP on the table is on only 6 attempts. For his career he’s 13 of 48. He has posted an R40 as high as 11.5 during his freshman year and he’s an OK shotblocker, so he has flashed some PF ability on occasion. He has SF size at 6’9” 209. Key will be learning to knock down some 3-pointers more efficiently. There’s some defensive promise here, but not much on offense. He looks like a classic case of a PF stuck in a SF’s body.