The centers are a varied group this year. There are a lot of draftworthy prospects, most of them starting in round 2. There are also a lot of potential specialists. There are stretch 5s, shot blockers, rebounders and youngsters with upside. A good number of these guys are older than the typical prospect.
My feeling is that in 10 years when we look back on the 2013 draft one of the stories will be how many of these players went on to decent NBA careers. My advice to any team drafting in round two would be to go big. Because of the large number of decent center prospects out, many will be squeezed into round 2 and the UFA market That means there will be there good value will be had by drafting big in round two.
Here are the numbers:
|
Centers |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Lucas Nogueira |
661 |
15.7 |
10.0 |
3.2 |
0.5 |
| Rudy Gobert |
736 |
14.7 |
9.4 |
3.2 |
0.3 |
| Alex Len |
544 |
17.8 |
11.8 |
3.1 |
0.6 |
| Steven Adams |
571 |
12.5 |
11.0 |
3.5 |
0.6 |
| Jeff Withey |
580 |
17.4 |
10.8 |
5.0 |
0.5 |
| Mike Muscala |
519 |
24.3 |
14.4 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
| Kelly Olynyk |
660 |
27.8 |
11.5 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
| Gorgui Dieng |
534 |
12.2 |
11.7 |
3.1 |
1.1 |
| Mason Plumlee |
599 |
19.5 |
11.4 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
| Dwayne Dedmon |
509 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
| Zeke Marshall |
651 |
18.0 |
9.7 |
5.1 |
0.6 |
| Marko Todorovic |
608 |
15.1 |
12.1 |
2.3 |
0.3 |
| Jordan Henriquez |
507 |
12.6 |
12.6 |
4.9 |
0.5 |
| Colton Iverson |
596 |
18.7 |
12.9 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| Reggie Johnson |
400 |
12.8 |
13.4 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal. Like a lot of the groups this year these guys are pretty closely bunched as far as potential goes and there isn’t a lot of difference in the top 8. This piece is a tad rushed, so please forgive the bad grammar and shorter than normal analysis.
Lucas Nogueira, Estudiantes: I would probably go with Nogueira if I had my pick of centers available other than Noel. It is a tough call, because this is a solid group and his numbers are for low minutes. It’s hard to pass on a raw, young player with a 7’6” wingspan who hits 66% of his shots while defending well and rebounding adequately. Because the draft is all about upside, I have to rank Nogueira at the top of this group.
Rudy Gobert, Cholet: Same thing I said about Nogueira, only make the wingspan 7’8” and the 2PP .736. His rebounds declined this year, but he has been over 10 in the past so I’m not sure if this is a problem or not. The thing it comes down to is upside. Gobert and Nogueira have the most of the centers available after Noel. There are risks, but starting in the late lottery these two have to be looked at.
Alex Len, Maryland: The big story buzzing around Len has been the injury he suffered during the season. There have been some questions as to when the stress fracture occurred among other things. From the reports the pain started during the BC game in late February. A look at Len’s numbers before this game and after shows there was a clear affect, at least on his offense.
|
Alex Len |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Pre-injury |
567 |
18.9 |
12.0 |
3.1 |
0.6 |
| Post-injury |
495 |
15.7 |
11.3 |
3.0 |
0.6 |
The rebounds and blocks declined slightly and that may or may not be injury related. The scoring efficiency and frequency dropped a lot and that could have been the injury.
This matters because Len is being touted as a top 5 pick. I feel top 5 is quite a reach for Len, even if the numbers after the injury are taken out of the equation. Len is a decent NBA center prospect, but nowhere near the player being whispered about as a potential top overall selection. There are few signs of dominance in Len’s numbers, just a solid player who meets all the necessary center qualifications.
His injury and inability to work out for the scouts appears to have helped his stock more than hurt. He’s been a fixture in the top 8 or so all year and now is listed anywhere from 1 to 5. I’m more pessimistic about Len. I see a decent NBA center prospect who is solid, but hardly the dominant type of college player who makes a big impact at the next level. I feel he’s a mid-first round pick.
Steven Adams, Pittsburgh: Adams had a pretty solid freshman year. He’s kind of similar to Len in that there’s nothing eye-popping here, but he did everything that could be reasonably expected of a freshman center prospect. He still has that wide career arc in front of him and is worthy of a late lottery pick. But he needs to improve, especially on offense.
Jeff Withey, Kansas: One of the best shot blockers in the nation, Withey was already a defensive stud, but stepped up the rest of his game nicely as a senior. He blocked over 5 shots per 40 minutes for the 2nd year in-a-row. That he did this while improving his 2PP to .580 and his R40 to 10.8 while taking on a larger offensive load is impressive.
On the negative side is he’s 23 and is a late bloomer having only been a rotation regular for the last two seasons as a Jayhawk. The latter issue could be one of the negatives of playing on a loaded roster. Because I favor defense over offense in a center prospect, I like Withey more than most. I feel he’s well worth a look after the lottery.
Mike Muscala, Bucknell: Muscala is a do-everything type. Going strictly by the numbers he’s the top rebounder and the best passer in this group. He shows promise as a stretch 5, having hit .313 on 67 career 3-pointers. He’s a decent enough shot blocker at 3.1 B40. The negative is his 2PP has never been much higher than .500, which means he’ll really struggle to score inside at the next level.
Muscala has shown enough that I feel he’s a good late round 1 pick. In a league that keeps getting more specialized, his ability to board, pass and pop the trey should make him a useful rotation center.
Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga: Olynyk scored at a frequency and efficiency combination that put his offensive season with some of the best ever and some of the most ordinary ever. Here are former college players who topped .620 2PP and 27.0 P40 as Olynyk did this past year.
|
Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Shaquille O’Neal |
628 |
35.1 |
18.7 |
6.4 |
| David Robinson |
644 |
28.1 |
13.8 |
4.8 |
| Rik Smits |
626 |
31.0 |
11.0 |
4.9 |
| Victor Alexander |
659 |
28.4 |
11.0 |
2.0 |
| Carlos Rogers |
623 |
34.7 |
11.8 |
4.3 |
| Kelly Olynyk |
660 |
27.8 |
11.5 |
1.8 |
Olynyk’s low number of blocks tells me he’ll be something short of Rik Smits, and way short of Shaq and David Robinson, as an NBA player. His range should allow him to stick around the league longer than Victor Alexander did.
Olynyk lacks the size and defensive skills to be a full-time NBA center. Between his scoring ability from inside and out, solid passing and adequate rebounding, he does bring enough that he has the potential to become an effective rotation big man playing both the 4 and 5. Think Victor Alexander with a better outside shot.
Gorgui Dieng, Louisville: Dieng’s numbers aren’t that great and that keeps him a borderline first rounder. I’ve always had the feeling that he’s better than the numbers suggest. The Cardinals winning the national championship only strengthened this feeling. Champions almost always produce at least one NBA player and Dieng is by far the most likely Cardinal to be that guy.
Good defender, rebounder and passer. His offense is weak and that will likely continue. He looks like a decent rotation player. He’s the age of a 5th-year senior at 23, but he also had a later start at the game so he might have more upside than the typical 23 year-old draftee.
Mason Plumlee, Duke: I had been down on Plumlee for much of the year, but he might be a tad better than his numbers suggest. He became a better offensive player this year, scoring more frequently and more efficiently. He also improved his FT % to .681, after it had hovered around .500 his first 3 years. That’s good for a couple of reasons. The first and most important is he gets to the line more frequently than any player on the list and that makes his offense that much more valuable. The other is such dramatic improvement in an area that had been a weakness is an indication of a work ethic that will serve him well at the next level.
Plumlee is 23 and his defensive numbers have never been great, so he’s a rotation guy at best. Like the rest of this group he’s a good value in round 2.
Dwayne Dedmon, USC: Dedmon will be 24 in August, but is also fairly new to the game, having only played competitively for the first time at JC in 2010. I’m not sure if a late start means a player has more upside or not. This probably depends more on the individual and his work ethic. Being older than a typical college player has always been a red flag but in Dedmon’s case I think the late start is worth noting.
His strengths are defense and rebounding. He’s one of the better rebounders and shot blockers in this group. That in itself makes him a player worth drafting. The offense is weak. Dedmon is worthy of a round two pick.
Zeke Marshall, Akron: Marshall was the highest ranked prospect ever to attend Akron and finally lived up to the promise in his senior year. His .651 on 2-pointers and 5.1 B40 are the type of dominant numbers I like to see in a prospect. His weak rebounding and the fact that it took him until now to arrive as a prospect are negatives. I still see him being worthy of a round 2 pick, simply because inside defense is so important.
Marko Todorovic, Barcelona: He’s been a consistently better rebounder than both Nogueira and Gobert. He hasn’t ever logged big minutes and that’s a concern to me. As is the case with the rest of these players I see Todorovic as a decent 2nd rounder.
Jordan Henriquez, Kansas State: Henriquez has been something of a favorite of mine, despite having a few red flags. He’s an excellent shot blocker and defender and has been for 3 seasons now. The negatives are that he’ll be 24 in August and he’s never been more than a part time player in his 4 years at Kansas State. He’s probably one I would wait until after the draft to pursue, but he has the potential to be a useful, low minute inside player.
Colton Iverson, Colorado State: Another 23 year-old who just arrived as a prospect. Iverson played a year at Colorado State after spending his first 3 at Minnesota in a part time role. His strength is rebounding. As a scorer he had a solid year, but that had been a weakness at Minnesota. His B40 looks low, but he did hit 3.1 and 2.2 his first two years at Minnesota in limited minutes. Good UFA, but not on the level of the others on the list.
Reggie Johnson, Miami: Johnson has been a solid rebounder at Miami for 4 seasons. Other than that the only number worth noting is hit .591 on 2-pointers as a sophomore. With Johnson I wonder what kind of player he could be he was to get himself into better shape. He’s been a 300 pounder for most of his college career and was an OK player. I feel it would be worth the trouble to bring him in and see what kind of player he becomes if he’s willing to lose about 50 lbs.