NBA Draft 2009: Combo Guards

I believe this is the 3rd or 4th year I’ve separated these combo guards. It used to be where I’d stick guards who just didn’t fit into one position or another. This year I’m limiting it to guards who are the size of a typical PG, but have played more like a SG. They’ve been scorers first and their history suggests they may have struggles playing PG.  I do this mainly because that’s what this position has become.

Like last year I’ll post the numbers of the two combo guards who have become wildly successful pros, Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas.  Both entered the NBA after their sophomore seasons: 

Player

FG Pct.

2-point Pct.

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40

Allen Iverson

.480

.546

30.5

5.7

1.2

9.3

Gilbert Arenas

.479

.519

22.3

3.2

0.8

7.8

While both became very good NBA players, there’s reason to believe it’s just better to get your team a real PG. Neither of these players have been big winners during their pro careers. Both seem like difficult players to build a team around. But they remain the gold standard for combo guards and pretty much what every one of the players listed below is striving to become.

I’m looking at the same things as always here. An ability to score a lot of points with good efficiency from both inside and out is most important. The stronger the defensive numbers are the better, with the red flags starting to come out if the RSB40 gets below 6.5. It’s also good to have shown some PG ability, especially since most of these players are PG size.

Player

fgpct 3pct 2 pct ftpct P40 R40 A40 S40 To40 A/TO rsb40
Curry, Stephen

0.454

0.387

0.519

0.876

33.01

5.12

6.40

2.91

4.27

1.50

8.30

Douglas, Toney

0.446

0.385

0.489

0.810

23.25

4.24

3.16

1.95

2.69

1.17

6.66

McNeal, Jerel

0.442

0.398

0.472

0.738

21.71

4.98

4.29

2.22

3.23

1.33

7.86

Chappell, J

0.470

0.396

0.535

0.843

20.68

7.81

3.96

3.04

3.57

1.11

11.63

Delaney, Paul

0.559

0.373

0.601

0.772

18.54

5.10

4.02

2.44

2.55

1.58

7.72

Hudson, Lester

0.449

0.355

0.520

0.881

29.61

8.55

4.54

2.52

3.57

1.27

11.68

Teague, Jeff

0.485

0.441

0.502

0.817

21.92

3.83

4.13

2.18

3.90

1.06

6.76

McClinton, Jack

0.449

0.453

0.446

0.885

23.48

3.77

3.46

0.91

3.20

1.08

4.72

Mills, Patrick

0.402

0.338

0.464

0.859

21.61

2.80

4.57

2.58

3.39

1.35

5.65

For the similarity scores with combos, I focused a little more on scoring and less on passing. I stuck with doing this for major college players only, so Curry won’t be comped. Most of the players who came up for these guys were your typical “good college players”, which may not bode well for this group. Mills was the exception, though I don’t consider him much of a prospect at all. Like with the PGs, these things are a work in progress and not meant to be taken too seriously.

1. Stephen Curry, Davidson: A truly great scorer. Not many guards at any level have put up points like Curry has. Now he did this mainly against small college opponents, which makes it less impressive. Historically lighting it up at the small college level hasn’t always assured NBA success. Here’s a list of recent small college combo guards and point guards who were also big time scorers: 

Player

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

TO40

RSB40

Greg Grant

.559

.409

38.8

4.2

3.3

8.4

Lindsey Hunter

.463

.341

31.5

4.0

3.3

7.6

Antonio Daniels

.576

.433

26.4

7.4

3.6

6.0

Speedy Claxton

.500

.381

25.9

6.8

3.7

10.1

Winston Garland

.502

.504

25.7

5.4

2.7

5.7

Rodney Stuckey

.539

.372

25.2

4.3

3.7

7.6

JJ Barea

.485

.291

25.1

10.0

5.6

6.8

Eddie Benton

.424

.324

29.6

4.3

5.3

3.8

Keydren Clark

.453

.380

27.6

4.4

3.5

6.4

Andre Collins

.465

.366

27.4

4.9

3.9

6.4

Elton Nesbitt

.463

.390

27.1

3.7

2.9

7.0

Doremus Bennerman

.463

.410

27.1

5.8

3.2

6.1

Mike Iuzzolino

.554

.528

26.4

4.4

2.7

4.4

Michael Anderson

.488

.380

26.3

7.7

5.7

10.4

Jermaine Boyette

.607

.348

25.6

4.1

3.0

5.4

Luis Flores

.482

.386

25.4

3.0

3.4

8.2

Stephen Curry

.519

.387

33.0

6.4

4.3

8.3

While none of these players made a huge impact, the top 5 all got significant PT and Stuckey looks like he eventually will as well.  The players who succeeded shot the 2-pointer significantly better. All but Hunter were over .500. Of the ones who didn’t make it only Iuzzolino and Boyette could make such a claim and both those players posted weak RSB40s. Curry hit .519 on his 2-pointers and posted a strong 8.3 RSB40, so he passes that test. In fact, I’d have to say that Curry’s numbers are more impressive than any player here. Grant play at Trenton State, which might be as low as division 3, so I’m not sure if his numbers are that much more impressive than Curry’s. None of the other players can boast the combination of scoring, efficiency, passing and defense that Curry has. Of curse that just makes him likely to become a better pro than Lindsey Hunter and Anthony Daniels. That means his career could be that of a good 6th or 7th man. Perhaps this makes him no more than a microwave-type of scorer off the bench or just a 3rd guard. Any team drafting a player in the top 10 would usually expect a little bit more. 

The key for Curry will be whether or not he can handle the point. We know he can score and that at the very least he should become a good backup. But because he’s short, his only real ticket to stardom, or at least becoming a long-term starter will be his ability to run the point full-time. He did it for the first time this year with mixed results. His PG numbers were good enough in that players with poorer numbers have gone on to become very good PGs. The problem could be that he had too much of a scorer’s mentality, which he’ll need to change if he’s going to succeed as anything more than a backup.

What the table below shows is a group of successful NBA PGs from recent years, their A/TO and their FGA per assist. Most successful PGs have a FGA/A in the range of 1.5-2.0. Curry’s was 3.6. What I wanted to look at was whether or not this could be expected to be a problem for prospects seeking to become NBA PGs. After all, a pass-first mentality is almost a necessary thing in a PG. Here’s a list of college PGs who put up a FGA/A of over 3.6 in their junior years and some players who went pro after their sophomore seasons:

Player

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

FGA/A

P40

A/TO

RSB40

Allen Iverson

.546

.366

3.8

30.5

1.2

9.8

Sam Cassell

.510

.354

3.8

21.8

1.3

7.8

Gilbert Arenas

.519

.416

5.2

22.3

0.8

7.8

Kenny Anderson

.472

.351

3.8

26.6

1.5

9.0

Nick Van Exel

.426

.343

3.7

21.7

1.7

5.1

Vernon Maxwell

.526

.352

4.5

27.2

1.5

7.3

Bobby Jackson

.463

.295

4.2

19.4

1.2

9.4

Eddie House

.455

.389

5.1

20.5

1.1

7.6

Lindsey Hunter

.443

.370

5.0

28.9

1.1

6.7

Dee Brown

.509

.426

4.0

20.8

1.3

10.5

Bimbo Coles

.491

.373

3.9

31.0

1.7

7.2

Eric Murdock

.445

.365

3.8

20.7

1.4

10.0

Tyronn Lue

.479

.373

3.6

23.6

1.2

7.1

Salim Stoudamire

.500

.415

3.9

20.4

1.4

4.6

Haywood Workman

.473

.282

6.4

22.8

1.3

11.4

Luis Flores

.482

.386

5.8

23.6

1.4

8.2

Anthony Roberson

.547

.388

5.5

23.6

1.4

3.8

AJ Guyton

.492

.406

4.9

18.8

1.2

5.3

Troy Bell

.486

.301

4.2

23.1

1.2

7.0

Stephen Curry

.519

.387

3.6

33.0

1.5

8.3

Keep in mind that Curry was a small college player, so this isn’t really a comp of his stats vs. these players. It’s just a look at shoot-first PGs at the NCAA level and whether or not they could transition to becoming more of a passing PG in the NBA. As was the case with the comp of small college players, the two important stats seem to be 2-point pct. and RSB40. With a few exceptions, players who at least approached .500 and 6.5 were for the most part more successful than the others. Van Exel is the glaring exception.

The question we want to answer though is there any evidence that Curry being a shoot-first college player will face a tough adjustment to playing PG in the pros. There are mixed results here. While players like Arenas, Maxwell and Iverson continued their mad bombing as pros, others like Cassell, Van Exel and Murdock all became solid passing PGs. One thing to remember with Curry is his situation at Davidson probably dictated that he did most of the scoring. He was the best scorer on the team, so it made sense that the best option was usually for him to take the shot.

When I stack Curry up against players of the past he comes out pretty good. He scored an eye-popping 33.0 P40, while still maintaining efficient percentages. His defensive and passing numbers are good enough that they’re not a concern and may even become a strength. I can’t say whether he’ll be better suited to play the point or come off the bench. There are a lot of reasons to think he can be an NBA PG. Chief among those are his willingness to try this past season and the fact that he had success in doing so. Players who improve weaknesses in their game are always ones to watch. With Stephen Curry I would say at the very least a team is getting a very good 3rd guard and probably a decent starting PG. 

2. Jeff Teague, Wake Forest: Like most of this crowd the hurdle Teague will have to clear is proving he can play PG. He measured out at around 6’ which is very short for a guard who doesn’t play point. Teague’s A/TO is 1.1, low for a PG. Here are some players who also were poor passers as sophs: 

Player

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

TO40

A/TO

RSB40

Gilbert Arenas

.519

.416

22.3

3.2

3.9

0.8

7.8

Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

.522

.358

29.6

3.4

3.9

0.9

4.5

Earl Watson

.487

.320

15.6

5.4

4.8

1.1

6.7

Elliot Perry

.493

.316

24.4

4.6

3.9

1.2

6.9

Tyronn Lue

.496

.343

21.0

4.7

4.4

1.1

4.7

Randy Woods

.516

.352

24.6

3.2

3.0

1.1

8.2

Shammond Williams

.548

.387

16.5

4.0

3.5

1.1

6.1

Vonteego Cummings

.476

.400

19.1

4.9

4.6

1.1

8.1

Darius Washington

.458

.357

20.3

4.8

4.8

1.0

6.3

Travis Mays

.500

.388

19.2

3.3

3.6

0.9

4.5

Jake Sullivan

.429

.472

18.5

2.6

2.9

0.9

3.4

Jeff Teague

.502

.441

21.9

4.1

3.9

1.1

6.8

Arenas is an NBA star, but is still more of a combo than a true PG. He’s also very much an exception to the rule among prospects. Abdul-Rauf had some good seasons, but was somewhat of a bust. He was an inefficient player who was always more of a scorer than a PG and was never as valuable as his PPG may have suggested. Watson, Perry and Lue have all put together decent journeyman careers. Shammond Williams became the first athlete to have a WWW page dedicated just to him, or at least he was according to Wikipedia. Williams has also had success playing overseas. The others had careers that were either minor or non-existent. Looking at the numbers, the big thing again seems to be that a player should have a 2-point pct. over or at least close to .500 and a RSB40 that isn’t wretched. Teague hits both those standards fairly comfortably. But I’m sure he has bigger aspirations than becoming the next Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf or cobbling together a decent career as a steady journeyman PG.

Another thing to look at with Teague is his season. He was the leading scorer and passer on a team that went from title contender in mid-January to a fading 4th seed getting upset in round one of the tournament in mid-March. Here are Teague’s monthly breakdowns: 

Jeff Teague

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

TO40

RSB40

Freshman

.448

.395

18.7

3.3

3.4

6.8

Nov-Dec

.527

.517

25.7

5.7

5.3

9.6

January

.486

.571

25.6

3.2

3.1

6.3

February

.458

.357

19.4

3.9

2.9

5.2

March

.538

.235

15.1

3.1

4.8

5.1

His rep has been built on a 3 month stretch when offensively he was on fire, mainly from behind the arc. When his game cooled off his team did the same.  There have to be some doubts about Teague. He hasn’t shown he can play the point and his offense was pretty ordinary when that 3 month hot streak is taken out of the equation. His numbers don’t suggest anything other than normal defensive skills. If a team can find that player he was from Nov-Jan and put that player on the court every night, I’m still not sure he’s more than a good bench player because of his height. Because most of those numbers were put up against the weaker competition of a non-con schedule, I can’t say that drafting Jeff Teague any time before round 2 is a smart move. Because he’s a soph, his upside keeps him ahead of the rest of the crowd.

Most similar players to Jeff Teague:

Elliot Perry, sophomore:        .919

Carl English, sophomore:       .908

Miles Simon, junior:               .902

Pierre Pierce, junior:               .901

Greg Graham, freshman:         .898 

3. Jerel McNeal, Marquette: I like this guy a lot. Not in the sense that I think he’ll be a star or anything, but he seems to have enough qualities that he’s going to become a valuable reserve. If you look at his numbers through the years, there always something impressive about his game. 

Jerel McNeal

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

PF40

RSB40

Freshman

.470

.283

16.1

4.0

0.7

3.6

10.2

Sophomore

.556

.313

19.5

5.0

0.9

4.7

10.5

Junior

.511

.304

19.8

4.7

1.3

4.1

9.9

Senior

.472

.398

21.7

5.0

1.3

2.8

7.9

Every season has some good and some bad. He’s never been a great scorer, but he had a couple of seasons hitting over .500 on 2-pointers and got his 3-point pct. up to an acceptable level this past year. He was also foul-prone until his senior season. This may not be a big deal, because he may have been asked to guard bigger players for much of this time. He turned himself into a good passer, but isn’t really starting PG material, as he showed this year when teammate Dominic James went down. As a defender he’s been topnotch, though his numbers trailed off some during his career. Over his career he’s done all the things a good combo needs to do for at least a season or two. He looks like he could become a decent reserve, possibly as good as a Bobby Jackson in his prime.

Most similar players to Jerel McNeal:

Toby Bailey, senior:             .940

Lance Blanks, junior:            .935

Vernon Maxwell, senior:      .930

Jameer Nelson, junior:          .920

Erick Strickland, senior:        .919 

4. Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin: Hudson is also a small college mega-scorer. His star started to sparkle a little before last years’ draft, but weak workouts forced him to withdraw and he returned to college for his senior year. Thus year he’s back with better numbers. I used the same table in the Curry comment here. These are small college players who scored a bunch of points, as Hudson did: 

Player

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

TO40

RSB40

Greg Grant

.559

.409

38.8

4.2

3.3

8.4

Lindsey Hunter

.463

.341

31.5

4.0

3.3

7.6

Antonio Daniels

.576

.433

26.4

7.4

3.6

6.0

Speedy Claxton

.500

.381

25.9

6.8

3.7

10.1

Winston Garland

.502

.504

25.7

5.4

2.7

5.7

Rodney Stuckey

.539

.372

25.2

4.3

3.7

7.6

JJ Barea

.485

.291

25.1

10.0

5.6

6.8

Eddie Benton

.424

.324

29.6

4.3

5.3

3.8

Keydren Clark

.453

.380

27.6

4.4

3.5

6.4

Andre Collins

.465

.366

27.4

4.9

3.9

6.4

Elton Nesbitt

.463

.390

27.1

3.7

2.9

7.0

Doremus Bennerman

.463

.410

27.1

5.8

3.2

6.1

Mike Iuzzolino

.554

.528

26.4

4.4

2.7

4.4

Michael Anderson

.488

.380

26.3

7.7

5.7

10.4

Jermaine Boyette

.607

.348

25.6

4.1

3.0

5.4

Luis Flores

.482

.386

25.4

3.0

3.4

8.2

Stephen Curry

.519

.387

33.0

6.4

4.3

8.3

Lester Hudson

.520

.355

29.6

4.5

3.6

11.7

Hudson comps well with this group. He passes the most important test, being over .500 on 2-pointers and 6.5 on RSB40, which he destroys. A couple of problems though. The first is he’s clearly not a PG and is only 6’1” in shoes. So while he does bring a good offensive game and strong defense, he might be too short. The next is he’ll be 25 in August. Dominating a small college conference at age 23 & 24 as he’s done for 2 seasons now just isn’t as impressive as coming in and doing it a teenager. Now the numbers are eye-popping, but they’d be more impressive if he looked a little more like the guard whose body he’s occupying than a forward. I would say he’s worth a 2nd– or even a late 1st-rounder simply because he was a dominator at the small college level and such players do have a better shot at success.

5. Toney Douglas, Florida State: An impressive season. The Seminoles had lost most of their core from the previous year and were taking the court with a young roster that was raw, but talented. Douglas took the scoring burden on his shoulders and led the team to their best season in years. Offensively Douglas improved every part of his game. He scored more often and much more efficiently. He got to the line much more often. He ended up being named the ACC defensive POY. After three seasons that would be called decent, he emerged as a strong combo prospect. 

He’s better than most in what has become a pretty large group of short shooting guards. Considering his defensive chops and the scoring ability he flashed this year, Douglas should be a lock to go later in round 1. He is a 5th-year senior and that’s always been a red flag. But when investing a 1st round pick after #20 in a weak draft a player like Douglas who meets all the important criteria on scoring, efficiency and defense seems like a better gamble than most.

Most similar players to Toney Douglas: 

Drew Nicholas, senior:          .958

John Morton, senior:              .934

Luke Recker, senior:              .930

Quincy Douby, junor:             .928

Daryl Wilson, junior:              .919 

6. Patrick Mills, St. Mary’s: Something I’ve noticed this year in following the lead up to the draft is there are more players being sold as prospects who don’t measure up than ever. Perhaps it’s the overall weakness of the draft and people just looking for something there, but it seems every time I glance at a mock this year someone like Willie Warren, Ed Davis, Jordan Hill or this guy is being touted as the next big thing.

Patrick Mills is hardly a serious prospect. He’s someone who put himself on the map with a nice game in the Olympics playing for Australia and has somehow kept the buzz going all through this season. Mills managed to accomplish this despite some very ordinary numbers and in a draft class that’s pretty deep with good perimeter players. He played on a good mid-major team that was led by him and two strong inside players, Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson. His numbers just don’t look like those of a prospect. He’s a very inefficient scorer, hitting only .402 overall and .338 on treys. This is 2 years running that he’s been this poor a scorer. His A40 and A/TO are too low to consider him a prospect at PG and his RSB40 is a weak 5.65, telling me his defense will be very substandard. There’s nothing here to suggest Patrick Mills is a player worth investing even a 2nd round draft pick in. 

Most similar players to Patrick Mills: 

Mo Williams, sophomore:          .914

Brett Nelson, junior:                   .912

Roger Mason, junior:                  .901

Jamal Crawford, freshman:         .898

Keyon Dooling, sophomore:       .893 

This is interesting. Four of the five players made the league and stuck around for awhile. It’s an odd group too. Neither Crawford nor Dooling put up great prospect numbers in college. Both were more size/athleticism type of prospects and Mills doesn’t have the height thing working in his favor. Williams was very much a late bloomer and Mason wasn’t much a prospect, but has managed to stick around the league for a long time. Perhaps Mills has that same intangible these players had. Maybe it’s something scouts can pick up on and stats miss. This makes Mills a little more intriguing to me. I still wouldn’t draft him in round one. 

7. Paul Delaney III, UAB: An interesting prospect. He’s sort of like McNeal in that his numbers really catch your eye in some areas. As good as those numbers are, I still have trouble seeing where he’ll fit in and have a huge impact. The most impressive is his scoring efficiency. He hit .601 on 2-pointers and posted a 1.65 PPS. This has been a career-long strength too, as his previous seasons were 1.57, 1.53 and 1.41. His defensive numbers have always been strong, RSB40s over or around 8.0 for his entire career. He played PG in 2007, but shared the position this year with Aaron Johnson. He also shared the scoring load with Robert Vaden. 

Despite his terrific prospect numbers, Delaney has never been the big time scorer that successful SGs and combos have typically been. He has only one year as the starting PG and his performance there would be called solid and efficient, but with weak passing numbers. This season was the first time he’s shown any consistency from behind the arc, hitting .393, but this was on only 59 attempts. He’s also a 5th-year senior, so he has that working against him. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss his chances. He seems to have all the qualifications to be a decent reserve and I would consider him somewhat of a sleeper to emerge as a decent starting NBA PG someday. But considering he’s coming into the league in a crowded field of point and combo guards and he doesn’t have the dynamic scoring or passing numbers on his resume, I’d have to consider him a longshot. 

Most similar players to Paul Delaney: 

Chris McCray, senior:             .922

Greg Graham, junior:              .918

Byron Irvin, junior:                 .906

Khalid Reeves, junior:            .893

Glen Gondrezick, senor:         .892 

8. Jack McClinton, Miami: Jack McClinton can drill it. I would even go so far as to say that if my team were down by 3 points with 2 seconds remaining, there’s no one in college basketball I’d rather have taking the shot. That said, McClinton is a 6’1”, 5th-year senior with weak defensive numbers and no PG abilities to speak of. But he’s hit a consistent 44% on well over 600 3-pointer for his career and close to 90% on his FTs. Because of his shooting prowess he might find a spot. 

Most similar players to Jack McClinton: 

Lionel Chalmers, senior:           .924

Hollis Price, senior:                   .913

Louis Bullock, junior:               .910

Salim Stoudamire, junior:         .902

Justin Gray, junior:                    .891 

9. Jeremy Chappell, Robert Morris: Chappell is similar to Hudson, but doesn’t score as much, so I dropped him down to the bottom. He’s still over 20.0 P40 and that makes him a prospect worth mentioning. Like Hudson he has the dominating RSB number, which is good. Also like Hudson he hasn’t shown he can play the point, which isn’t so good. He’s an efficient scorer from all over the court and his defensive numbers are strong. For that reason he’s a player worth a look.

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