The 2014 draft class is already being called one of the strongest in years. We’ll see on whether that becomes the case, but it seems promising. The two most talked about players have been SFs Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. In December of last year Jabari Parker landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption, “The Best High School Basketball Player Since LeBron James is Jabari Parker.” That was some heady praise, but Parker quickly became yesterday’s news when Andrew Wiggins reclassified from the 2014 class up to 2013 and nudged Parker out of the top prospect slot and took the title of the next LeBron in the process. Wiggins will attend Kansas and Parker will be at Duke. The assumption right now is both will be one-and-dones.
In the initial analysis of the 2014 draft, most of the buzz surrounds Wiggins. I’ve read in a few places that Wiggins is so good that teams are already tanking for the 25% chance of winning the lottery the worst overall record brings a team. Parker meanwhile has fallen into the background. He is generally considered the #2 prospect in the 2014 draft, but is listed as low as #5 in some of the mocks. It’s worth pointing out that last year at this time last year Shabazz Muhammad was considered the top overall prospect and top overall pick Anthony Bennett was barely on the 2013 draft radar.
In this very early and not-to-be-taken-too-seriously analysis of Parker, Wiggins and some of the other top freshmen, I’m using statistics compiled in 3 high school all-star games. Before I get into analysis of these two and what the stats might mean, a few things to know about high school all-star games. They’re more talent showcases than competitions. I’m certain all participants want to win, but player rotation is much more even than in a regular game, meaning the 10th best player often gets as much court time as the top player. The games are played at a much faster pace than a typical college game, so all the numbers are going to be bloated. College teams have gone through training camp together and run a system. All-star teams are groups of star players who come together to showcase their skills. There is also the small sample problem, as every player is being judged on numbers posted in well under 100 minutes. While the all-star games do have a lot of differences from the typical college basketball game, it’s still basically the same 5-on-5 game and I believe the stats can give us a clue as to what to expect from these two and the other top freshmen.
Here are the stats Parker and Wiggins posted in 3 all-star games:
|
Min |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
A40 |
S40 |
B40 |
T40 |
|
| Jabari Parker |
70 |
553 |
91 |
27.4 |
12.6 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins |
78 |
633 |
500 |
28.7 |
9.2 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Based on the 70ish minutes both played in the all-star games we could be in for quite a fun ride with these two. Wiggins showed great potential as a scorer, lighting it up often and efficiently from both inside and outside the arc. The only concern with Wiggins would be that his blocks and steals are low. This suggests he might be in the Shabazz Muhammad-Harrison Barnes group of SFs who looked impressive enough as high schoolers to become the top overall prospect, but lack the defensive intensity to become a star. It is way too early to say this will be the case with Wiggins, but it is something to watch. I’m not going to worry too much about it just yet, because it is a small sample and in general when a prospect is gushed over by scouts as much as Wiggins has been, the scouts are usually right.
After looking at the all-star stats, Parker is the guy I’m really excited about going in though. He did everything well other than 3-point shooting which is such a streaky skill that it shouldn’t even be considered when working with such a small sample. His 10.3 ASB40 suggests he could bring back memories of Grant Hill at Duke. Considering the rebounding prowess he flashed and his size, listed at 6’8” 220, he brings the potential to play either forward position. As a scorer he wasn’t on the level of Wiggins, but he was still pretty good.
If we’re talking about LeBron comparisons, Parker looks like a closer comp right now. He was more of an all-around player, like LeBron, while Wiggins was more of a scorer. Parker is a bigger player than Wiggins, which is also more LeBron-like. Parker’s weight is listed as high as 241, by Draftexpress, while Wiggins is consistently around 200. Comparing any player who has yet to log any time at college to an all-time great like LeBron is a ridiculous stretch, but in this case the comps have already been tossed out there for both players. Going into the season, Parker appears to be the more LeBronesque of the two in both game and dimensions.
Parker and Wiggins are easily the top 2 prospects coming out of the all-star games. They should help make the 2014 season one of the best in years. Here are some stats and comments for the other top frosh coming in based on all-star game stats. Numbers displayed are, in order, minutes, 2PP, 3PP, P40, R40, A40, S40, B40 AND TO40. Players are listed in order of ESPN’s top 100 list for 2013. I only included players listed in the top 20 who appeared in at least one all-star game. Keep in mind that the reservations about numbers compiled in all-star games apply here. Any of these players could see their career take off or find themselves overwhelmed as freshmen. This is just an early glance.
| Julius Randle, PF Kentucky |
69 |
595 |
0 |
28.4 |
12.8 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
4.1 |
Randle is the highest ranked big coming into the season and looks like a good scorer. The rebounds are a little low for a top PF (remember the faster pace). Two more negatives are low defensive numbers and high TOs.
| Aaron Gordon, PF Arizona |
74 |
519 |
0 |
19.5 |
6.5 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
Gordon did not acquit himself very well at all in these games. At 210 lbs he’s a candidate for either forward position, but didn’t look like he could handle either at the next level. The all-star games are too random to make any sort of definitive statement on a prospect. Gordon’s play has me skeptical of him though.
| Andrew Harrison, PG Kentucky |
69 |
571 |
500 |
20.3 |
4.1 |
9.9 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
A good passer and scorer, Harrison’s defensive numbers were very low. The RSB of 5.8 would be a red flag in games played at a regular pace. In fast-paced all-star games it’s a very low number for the top guard prospect in the nation to have posted.
| Joel Embiid, C Kansas |
19 |
167 |
0 |
8.4 |
14.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.5 |
0.0 |
Embiid blocked 5 shots and grabbed 7 rebounds in only 19 minutes. That’s way too little time to make much of a judgment, but definitely an impressive start. He hit only 1 of 6 shots, suggesting he’s raw on offense. Also impressive is he committed no turnovers. I’m much more impressed with the ability Embiid showed on the boards and blocking shots than I am concerned about the 1-6 shooting. With Embiid and Wiggins, I like the chances for a quick rebuild of Kansas into a power.
| Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky |
35 |
526 |
0 |
22.9 |
10.3 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
3.4 |
The numbers are OK, though I’d like both the blocks and rebounds to be higher. Of bigger concern to Johnson is he’ll be in a crowded frontcourt with Randle also coming in and the top returning center prospect in the nation, Willie Cauley-Stein already set to play big minutes. There’s also sophomore F Alex Poythress, who plays a lot of PF and is projected as a first-rounder in most mocks, returning. The perpetual logjam will continue should Johnson stay for his sophomore year, as the #2 center prospect of 2014, Karl Towns, has already cast his lot with Kentucky. Such are the perils of attending a powerhouse program.
| James Young, SF Kentucky |
35 |
556 |
333 |
18.3 |
5.7 |
2.3 |
5.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
The Kentucky prospects were a pretty underwhelming bunch in these games. Young logged an impressive 35 minutes though. Young is a good scorer and the 5.7 S40 is a sign of dominance. Based on these games and the makeup of the Kentucky roster, Young would seem like the Wildcat freshman most likely to have a breakout year.
| Aaron Harrison, SG Kentucky |
53 |
600 |
0 |
9.1 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
As is the case with his twin, Aaron Harrison posted a low RSB40 in these games. Unlike brother Andrew he didn’t flash any other impressive skills.
| Kasey Hill, PG Florida |
54 |
333 |
429 |
13.3 |
5.9 |
8.9 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
5.9 |
I like the high number of steals and the 10+ RSB40. His turnovers are high and the 2PP is low. Hill was a mixed bag, but it’s better to show skills on defense than offense is these games. Defense is a better indicator of ability in a young player and Hill seems to have it.
| Chris Walker, PF Florida |
27 |
529 |
0 |
26.7 |
19.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
In the 27 minutes he played, Chris Walker was the best rebounder of all incoming prospects. That’s a pretty big deal, considering there are no red flags in his numbers.
| Noah Vonleh, PF Indiana |
33 |
429 |
0 |
8.5 |
12.1 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
Vonleh played 33 unimpressive minutes. No need to get too down on him or any player here though. There will be plenty of time for improvement to happen. This is just an early glance.
| Wayne Selden, SF Kansas |
33 |
750 |
286 |
15.8 |
9.7 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
7.3 |
A fairly impressive showing by Selden, though the turnovers are very high. Because he plays the same position as Wiggins and is at a powerhouse program, Selden will be in the same boat as a lot of the Kentucky prospects in that he may have to wait for a chance to shine.
| Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas |
41 |
444 |
500 |
13.7 |
7.8 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
What I wrote for Vonleh applies for Portis also.
| Nigel Williams-Goss, PG Wash. |
35 |
818 |
500 |
30.9 |
5.7 |
11.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
8.0 |
| Tyler Ennis, PG Syracuse |
44 |
520 |
167 |
30.9 |
10.9 |
9.1 |
5.7 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
Williams-Goss and Ennis were by far the two most impressive PGs in the all-star games and the two most impressive players other than Wiggins and Parker. Both scored a ton of points. Both scored efficiently. Williams-Goss scored with dominant efficiency. Both posted solid RSB40s, with Ennis a dominant 16.6. The only red flag is the 8.0 TO40 for Williams-Goss. I’ll add that I like Washington as a place for Williams-Goss to develop. Three Husky guards, Brandon Roy, Nate Robinson and Isaiah Thomas, have gone on to play significant NBA minutes in recent years, so there’s a good history there. While the Huskies return a lot of their rotation from last year, no one player is so good that an incoming freshman star would have to take a backseat. Tyler Ennis also finds an opening at Syracuse with the departure of Michael Carter-Williams. These are two impressive players coming into good situations. I expect both to do very well and possibly even challenge Andrew Harrison and Marcus Smart as the top PG in college ball.