Dante Exum is an Australian guard who is being touted in the mocks as being right there with Wiggins, Parker and Randle as a player worthy of being the top overall pick in the legendary 2014 NBA draft. It is still a long time until the draft and a lot will change at the top before June. I wanted to take a look at Exum to decide whether he’s a legit top 5 prospect or if he’s just another flash in the pan riding an impressive high school all-star game performance and an imposing wingspan to pre-draft fame, before the spotlight and stronger competition exposes him as nothing more than the next Marco Jaric.
As is the case with Wiggins and Parker, Exum boasts some strong basketball bloodlines. His father, Cecil, was a teammate of Michael Jordan and James Worthy on the great North Carolina teams of the early 80s. Cecil was drafted in the 9th round by the Nuggets in 1984 before heading to Australia where he played professionally for 7 years.
But my analysis is never about ancestry or hype. I look at stats. Dante Exum is a player just out of high school. He won’t turn 19 until a couple of weeks after the draft. He didn’t enroll in an American college, so there will be no NCAA stats I can use. I did find about 600 minutes worth of numbers from tournaments he has played in over the past couple of years on his FIBA page. I’ll use those for this analysis.
| Dante Exum | Min |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| FIBA U17 |
221 |
557 |
171 |
25.0 |
3.6 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
8.0 |
| Oceania U18 |
91 |
611 |
286 |
18.9 |
7.9 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
10.6 |
| FIBA U19 |
266 |
529 |
333 |
24.7 |
5.1 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
7.2 |
| Nike Hoops Summit |
22 |
833 |
500 |
29.1 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
10.9 |
| Total |
600 |
561 |
275 |
24.1 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
8.1 |
One unknown about these numbers is the pace of game. In tournament games, which comprise the top 3 lines and the vast majority of minutes, pace is typically normal or even slower than a regular season. In an all-star game like the Nike Hoops Summit, the pace is usually hyper fast. This is borne out here in Exum’s high P40, S40 and RSB40 numbers at the NHS. The gap between the NHS numbers and his overall numbers suggests that the tournament numbers, which represent 578 of the 600 total minutes, were posted at a fairly normal pace. This is important to know, because Exum’s numbers are pretty strong and we need to be reasonably sure they aren’t artificially inflated.
Looking at his skills, the first and most important thing to note is that he’s a willing and efficient scorer. He’s been well over .500 on 2-pointers for his entire career. He’s been shaky from the outside, but is improving. Hitting .333 on 51 attempts, as he did in the FIBA U19 tournament, is solid enough that it isn’t a real concern for a guard prospect. He’s been well over 20.0 P40, which shows he’s an aggressive scorer who is willing to take on the lead role on offense.
He’s also a promising passer. Following his first tournament, his A40 has been well above 5.0 with no turnover problem. This is more impressive than it might look considering the official scorers overseas are traditionally stingier than their American counterparts when awarding assists. Exum’s passing skills matter, because an ability to play the point makes him a more valuable prospect than if he were just another 6’6” SG from overseas.
His defensive numbers are also strong. The S40 is over 2.0 and the RSB40 is well over 7.0. These are important benchmarks that say Exum is both an able and willing defender. A high RSB40 also suggests NBA level athleticism in a prospect.
In evaluating Dante Exum as a prospect, we have limited information. Based on what we do have, he has shown himself to be a capable scorer, passer and defender. At 6’6” he has great size for a guard, which is another big asset. I’m not sure about the level of competition he posted the tournament numbers against. He did put in a strong showing at the NHS against one of the best group of American prospects in years. This is a group that seems likely to compose a good portion of the lottery picks this June and the fact that Exum not only held his own, but excelled against them suggest his tournament numbers are real.
Dante Exum is a prospect with the right size/skill package. He has flashed dominant ability as a scorer. As a passer and a defender he’s been solid. There are no red flags here that point to him being a bust. There is a long way to go in this process and a lot more analysis to be done. At this early point in the process Dante Exum looks every bit like the NBA prospect he’s being hyped as and he definitely belongs in the discussion of which player deserves to be the top pick in the legendary 2014 draft.