Sometimes I find the evaluation process a little baffling. It’s as if the scouts, GMs and other personnel men simply focus in on what goes on in the combine and workouts and ignore the season. As if they’re drafting players for a decathlon instead of the same five-on-five game these players were playing the previous winter.
I understand all the tests to some extent too. Teams are investing a ton of money into these players and they need to make sure of their strength, smarts and quickness. Teams need to be sure the player they’re getting is as tall as advertised, or at least tall enough to do the job. I also realize that the college game is slightly different from the pro game and teams are looking for different things than what may have been successful at the NCAA level. That all said, when a player has a year like Ty Lawson just had it seems silly to me that he would fall behind so many clearly inferior players because he didn’t perform as well as them in a few controlled tests. Unless some team is playing possum seriously well, it looks like Lawson will fall at least into the late teens. He’s the only college PG who has shown an ability not only to pass first and set up teammates, but to score efficiently when his team needs him to. The fact that he proved this for 3 NCAA seasons should have him near the top of the PG list, but scouts seem to be wild for clearly inferior players this year.
This isn’t intended to sound like crazy man ranting about the so-called experts and their new-fangled, fancy-pants way of doing things either. For years very good PGs have been slighted by the league’s personnel experts, only to excel once given the chance. When a PG is an obvious top 1 or 2 pick he’s fairly easy to spot. Magic, Isiah Thomas, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd and Derrick Rose were all players like this. The other ones have been more difficult for the scouts to pick up on. Here are several examples of teams just flat out missing the boat on PGs who went on to become anywhere from a good, solid player to an all-star:
- 1984: John Stockton drafted #14.
- 1985: Terry Porter #24
- 1986: Scott Skiles #22, Mark Price #25.
- 1987: Mark Jackson #18
- 1988: Rod Strickland #19
- 1989: Mookie Blalock #12, Tm Hardaway #14
- 1993: Sam Cassell #24, Nick van Exel #37
- 1996: Steve Nash #15
- 2001: Jamaal Tinsley #27, Tony Parker #28
- 2003: Mo Williams #47
- 2004: Jameer Nelson #20, Chris Duhon #38
- 2006: Rajon Rondo #21
- 2007: Ramon Sessions #56
Needless to say in every instance there were several NBA washouts and busts drafted with these players still on the board. I think the reason for this could be that PG is more of a thinking/leadership position than an athletic one. The workouts measure athleticism, but statistics can better measure whether or not a college PG will become an effective pro PG, because statistics tell what a player actually did on the court. Based on this type of history, I’m not too concerned over the fact that I have Ty Lawson ranked ahead of others who may have performed better at the combine.
Rant over. This is shaping up as a very good year for PGs. I knew the perimeter players were strong in general, but after assigning positions to every player, I feel the PGs are by far the best group in this draft and we could even be seeing a legendary PG class here. I suspect as many as 6 will go in the top 10 and a few more in the next 10. This has more to do with the weakness of the big guys than anything, but it does say something about the strength of this group. I didn’t include Stephen Curry with this group as some have. He’ll be evaluated with the combo guards.
One thing I tried to look at a little more closely this season for guards was 2-point shooting percentage. It’s probably more important than 3-point pct. in that it shows an ability to score inside. Three-point shooting is one of those stats where it’s more important to reach a certain level, like .333, than it is to be great. The other numbers I look at remain the same for PGs. Those stats are: points and assists per 40 minutes, combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes and A/TO. It’s also important for a PG prospect to get to the line often. Without breaking things down by class here’s a look at the important numbers:
|
Player |
fgpct |
3pct |
2 pct |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
To40 |
a/to |
rsb40 |
fta/40 |
| Lawson, Ty |
0.532 |
0.472 |
0.560 |
20.40 |
8.08 |
2.63 |
2.32 |
3.48 |
6.46 |
7.30 |
| Calathes, Nick |
0.482 |
0.390 |
0.555 |
19.82 |
7.41 |
2.18 |
3.82 |
1.94 |
8.53 |
6.12 |
| Holiday, Jrue |
0.450 |
0.307 |
0.528 |
12.71 |
5.54 |
2.36 |
3.22 |
1.72 |
8.80 |
2.66 |
| Jackson, Aaron |
0.554 |
0.405 |
0.613 |
20.41 |
6.03 |
1.74 |
3.20 |
1.88 |
7.61 |
5.84 |
| Collison, Darren |
0.509 |
0.394 |
0.558 |
18.64 |
6.14 |
2.11 |
3.22 |
1.91 |
5.40 |
4.66 |
| Maynor, eric |
0.463 |
0.361 |
0.516 |
25.46 |
7.03 |
1.94 |
3.38 |
2.08 |
8.24 |
8.14 |
| Flynn, Jonny |
0.460 |
0.317 |
0.521 |
17.77 |
6.81 |
1.45 |
3.46 |
1.97 |
4.39 |
6.14 |
| Vasquez, Greivi |
0.405 |
0.327 |
0.452 |
20.06 |
5.76 |
1.60 |
3.21 |
1.80 |
8.21 |
4.19 |
| James, Dominic |
0.424 |
0.284 |
0.517 |
13.42 |
6.08 |
2.62 |
2.28 |
2.67 |
7.17 |
3.76 |
| Pargo, Jeremy |
0.479 |
0.359 |
0.513 |
13.66 |
6.56 |
1.81 |
3.18 |
2.06 |
6.59 |
2.75 |
| Fields, Levance |
0.398 |
0.341 |
0.439 |
13.12 |
9.18 |
0.95 |
2.41 |
3.80 |
4.11 |
3.77 |
| Holston, David |
0.425 |
0.371 |
0.515 |
29.59 |
7.30 |
3.47 |
4.69 |
1.56 |
7.73 |
6.30 |
| Woodside, Ben |
0.464 |
0.427 |
0.481 |
26.41 |
7.03 |
1.62 |
3.59 |
1.96 |
5.45 |
9.48 |
| Jerrells, Curtis |
0.427 |
0.367 |
0.476 |
18.61 |
5.63 |
1.76 |
3.49 |
1.61 |
7.30 |
6.27 |
| Price, AJ |
0.408 |
0.402 |
0.413 |
17.41 |
5.55 |
0.81 |
3.18 |
1.74 |
4.94 |
4.36 |
| Rice, Tyese |
0.413 |
0.347 |
0.468 |
19.83 |
6.27 |
1.67 |
4.45 |
1.41 |
6.44 |
7.16 |
I did something new this year for the college players. I played around some with similarity scores. Basically I compared each players stats in the categories of FG pct, P40, A40, A/TO and RSB40. The percentages of how close players are in each statistic are averaged out for a final number. Below each player’s analysis I listed the 5 most similar NCAA players of the past. I only considered players within 1 year of the player’s class, meaning freshmen will be compared to freshmen and sophomores, sophomores with freshmen, sophomores and juniors, juniors with sophomores, juniors and seniors and seniors with juniors and seniors. This shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as it’s a work in process and this is a very rudimentary first run at it. I hope to improve it for next year to isolate things like most similar scorer, passer etc. I also did this only for major college players, because that’s the only group of players I have a complete enough database for. For now this is all I have, so enjoy it for what it is.
Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other things, like team situations and their willingness to break a European contract, being equal.
1. Ricky Rubio, DKV Joventut: I’ll admit right off the bat that I’m not that good in evaluating foreign players. The process involves getting the player’s stats from the Euroleague site or by googling the name. I then compare those numbers like I would every NCAA player while trying to consider things like age and situation in the final analysis. With every player available for viewing on YouTube, I can also watch their highlights and get some idea of quickness and athleticism, but as I’ve said many times, scouting really isn’t what I do here. What I also look for are signs of dominance. If a player is simply dominating his league, that’s to be considered a good thing. If he has some stats that are dominating, that’s also good. With that in mind, here are the career numbers for Ricky Rubio:
| Ricky Rubio |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
TO40 |
RSB40 |
| ’06 ACB |
.364 |
.750 |
12.5 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
11.0 |
| ’07 Euro |
.464 |
.167 |
7.7 |
5.8 |
4.0 |
11.9 |
| ’07 ACB |
.518 |
.286 |
10.1 |
4.8 |
2.7 |
10.5 |
| ’08 Euro |
.607 |
.360 |
14.6 |
8.6 |
4.9 |
11.2 |
| ’08 ACB |
.430 |
.294 |
18.3 |
7.0 |
9.3 |
3.6 |
| ’09 Euro |
.286 |
.333 |
7.3 |
8.5 |
7.3 |
12.8 |
| ’09 ACB |
.374 |
.423 |
17.4 |
10.6 |
5.2 |
8.5 |
The Euro games are for a smaller sample size, which might explain some of the strange-looking numbers. The ACB numbers give a better picture of the player Rubio has been. He’s a stellar passer, potentially great defender and an erratic scorer. Now one important thing to remember here is he’s still only 18. At a young age he’s already solid in the area of passing and has put up dominating numbers on defense. This is very impressive. His scoring has been shaky, but I wouldn’t call that a big concern just yet. Young players in Europe aren’t always looked on to score. They don’t always come in as the star, like the best college freshmen often do. Scoring is something that can be developed, especially in a talented player who’s this young. There have been some flashes too. He’s posted a .518 and .607 on 2-pointers in leagues and his most recent stint featured a .423 on treys.
There’s enough good and potentially great in Ricky Rubio’s numbers to make him one of the top picks in this draft. If I were a GM my top priority was a PG that I could develop and wait a season or two on, I would do everything in my power to land this guy. Any player that dominates in Europe on at least some level at ages 17 and 18 the way he has is a serious prospect. The scoring should eventually get better. If not a stellar combination of passing and defense brought Jason Kidd a pretty strong career and it should do the same for Rubio.
2. Ty Lawson, North Carolina: I’ve been on Lawson for 3 years now as a solid prospect. As a freshman, I felt he was the 2nd best PG in the nation after Conley. As a soph, I considered him a close 2nd to Derrick Rose. Both years I felt he was a top 10 prospect. This year he stepped up his game in every way and by the tournament he was a dominant player who led his team to a championship. There’s just very little not to like here. I feel he’ll have an immediate positive impact, make some all-star games in his career and might even land an all-NBA nod or two should he land in the right situation.
The reason I like Lawson so much is he does exactly what a PG needs to do and he does it well. He’s a pass-first PG who can pass well, as evidenced by his 8.1 A40 and 3.5 A/TO. He can also score in a very efficient manner when he needs to, as evidenced by his .532 FG pct. and .472 3-pt. pct. There are no hidden weaknesses in his scoring. He gets to the line more often than any major college PG and drills FTs at an 80% clip. His 1.70 points per shot is an amazing, almost unprecedented number for a PG. Defensively he’s a mixed bag. He gets a bunch of steals and even set a tournament record for steals in the final game. That said opposing PGs like Tyrese Rice, Jeff Teague and Grievis Vasquez have lit up the Tar Heels on occasion. I guess I would say that PG isn’t the most important defensive position in the floor and poor defensive PGs have won MVP awards. I do feel that at the very least his ballhawking ability will make him a pesky defender.
To make his case I want to first compare his scoring to past college PGs. The table below shows PGs who scored both frequently and efficiently at the major college level. These PGs, like Lawson this past year, hit over 52% of their FGs and scored at least 18.0 points per 40 minutes. They’re listed in rough order of how successful their NBA careers went.
| Player | FG Pct. | 3 pt. Pct. | P40 | A40 | A/TO | RSB40 | TO40 |
| John Stockton |
.577 |
NA |
22.2 |
7.6 |
2.2 |
6.8 |
3.5 |
| Tim Hardaway |
.548 |
.366 |
21.4 |
6.1 |
2.0 |
7.9 |
3.0 |
| Rod Strickland |
.528 |
.444 |
24.9 |
9.7 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
3.9 |
| Steve Francis |
.523 |
.388 |
22.2 |
5.8 |
1.5 |
9.8 |
3.9 |
| Mark Price |
.528 |
NA |
19.6 |
4.9 |
1.7 |
5.4 |
2.9 |
| Andre Miller |
.549 |
.333 |
18.0 |
6.6 |
2.1 |
10.2 |
3.2 |
| Kirk Hinrich |
.542 |
.478 |
19.3 |
6.5 |
1.9 |
8.8 |
3.4 |
| Sherman Douglas |
.546 |
.368 |
20.6 |
9.7 |
2.4 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
| Jason Williams |
.522 |
.380 |
18.4 |
8.7 |
2.4 |
7.8 |
3.7 |
| Scott Skiles |
.554 |
NA |
29.0 |
6.9 |
2.0 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
| Gary Grant |
.530 |
.444 |
24.1 |
7.9 |
1.6 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
| Johnny Dawkins |
.549 |
NA |
24.4 |
3.9 |
1.2 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
| Rumeal Robinson |
.557 |
.469 |
19.8 |
8.4 |
1.8 |
7.2 |
4.7 |
| Pearl Washington |
.535 |
NA |
21.4 |
9.7 |
2.4 |
6.3 |
4.1 |
| Darryl Johnson |
.529 |
.371 |
23.7 |
4.3 |
1.1 |
6.3 |
3.9 |
| Ty Lawson |
.532 |
.472 |
20.4 |
8.1 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2.3 |
Going through the list, the top 6 were obvious NBA success stories. The next 4 carved out strong careers. Grant and Dawkins were decent journeymen. The negatives for those two at the time would have been a high TO rate for Grant and a low assist rate for Dawkins who was really more of a combo. Robinson was one of those players who entered the league at age 24, so his career curve may have been close to flattening. Pearl Washington was a good college player who never learned how to hit the outside shot, something that has become a necessity for successful PGs. Darryl Johnson was basically an undersized combo who never developed the necessary PG skills in college. Lawson has none of these issues working against him. Lawson fits in well with the top 6. He doesn’t have the weak RSB of Douglas, the scorer’s mentality of Skiles or any signs of the erratic play that held back the career of Jason Williams. Another thing he has in common with the top players on this list is, with the exception of Francis, all outplayed their draft position by a wide margin. Lawson is pegged somewhere in the range of 10-15 by the mocks right now. Since he’s been around and went through the evaluation process last year, I doubt he’ll be moving up too much. There just isn’t that much more to know about him.
A couple more things I wanted to add were a look at Lawson’s A/TO and PPS this past season. Both numbers were historically terrific. This is very significant, because the job of a PG is simple. First he has to run the offense by setting up his teammates for easy points. When this option isn’t there he needs to be able to score efficiently enough that defenders can’t ignore him. He needs to do all this while limiting his turnovers. How well a player handles these duties can be summed up in his A/TO and PPS. Well, it’s not quite that simple, the P40 and A40 also have to be at a certain level, but I think the general idea here is correct. First a look at the A/TO of 3.5. It’s pretty much unprecedented for a PG to post a number this high while also averaging over 20 P40 and 8 A40. Leaders in A/TO are usually non-scorers and defensive types who are solid, low-mistake players. Lawson posted a 3.5, a number that is pretty much unprecedented when combined with his point and assist production. The table below shows the best A/TO for PGs who posted points and assists above 18 and 7 per 40 minutes respectively. I’m listing only players who have come within 1.0 of Lawson’s 3.5 this past year:
| Player |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
TO40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Ty Lawson |
.532 |
20.4 |
8.1 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
| Leon Wood |
.471 |
19.6 |
11.9 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
5.1 |
| Travis Diener (Sr) |
.420 |
23.2 |
8.2 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
6.2 |
| Gary Payton |
.475 |
21.2 |
8.6 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
8.1 |
| Travis Diener (Jr) |
.425 |
22.1 |
7.0 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
5.2 |
| Mike Bibby |
.464 |
21.5 |
7.1 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
7.0 |
| Rod Strickland |
.528 |
24.9 |
9.7 |
3.9 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
I included FG pct. and RSB40 numbers to sort of drive home the point that these numbers are important and regardless of how impressive a PG’s passing is, low numbers in these areas should be considered a red flag. As a mentioned earlier, Lawson’s numbers as a passing PG are pretty much unprecedented. No major college PG has ever been this good at distributing the ball without turning it over while still picking up a major part of the scoring load. I’m not sure what to make of this, because when something is unprecedented it has never happened before. Since it never happened, we have nothing to compare it to so I can’t say if this is a big deal or not. I will say that this certainly isn’t a bad thing and should bode very well for Lawson’s NBA career. Onto the points per shot. Lawson’s 1.70 is also a number that has rarely been reached by PGs. Here’s a list of college PGs who hit that number while playing over 600 minutes. I didn’t include Steve Kerr, because he was more of a combo guard in college and was definitely that in the NBA.
| Player |
PPS |
P40 |
A40 |
RSB40 |
| Ty Lawson |
1.70 |
20.4 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
| Tim Hardaway |
1.67 |
21.4 |
6.1 |
7.9 |
| Chris Paul |
1.69 |
17.7 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
| Mark Jackson |
1.78 |
12.0 |
7.3 |
4.9 |
| Travis Ford |
1.82 |
16.8 |
6.0 |
4.7 |
| Steve Henson |
1.69 |
10.0 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
| Chris Hernandez |
1.70 |
13.1 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
We have 3 all-stars and 3 who didn’t quite make it. The 3 players who didn’t make it all posted P40 and RSB40 numbers that were well below the benchmarks of 18.0 and 6.5. Jackson also posted low numbers, but this was his sophomore season and he got himself up to 19.2 P40 and 6.0 RSB40 by his senior year. Lawson has scored enough and his defensive numbers are good enough, that it seems much more likely his career will resemble that of the top 3 than the bottom 3.
Normally when I like a prospect this much more than the experts I waffle some and throw a few qualifiers out there. With Lawson I’m not going to do that. I firmly believe he’s going to be an excellent NBA player. Any player who has performed this well at the NCAA level has gone onto an excellent NBA career. There’s no reason to think Lawson won’t do the same. I see no negatives in drafting Ty Lawson. My opinion is that he will have a career resembling that of a Stockton, Strickland, Mark Jackson or Tim Hardaway. That’s a long-time NBA PG who is generally considered one of the best in the league. He’s easily at the top of this class. Any team that needs a PG shouldn’t hesitate in drafting Lawson no matter where their draft choice is. The only reason Rubio gets a slight edge is he’s taller, younger and has a higher ceiling because of it.
Most similar players to Ty Lawson:
Rod Strickland, sophomore: .843
Pearl Washington, junior: .838
Sherman Douglas, sophomore: .836
Tim Hardaway, senior .829
John Stockton, senior .819
We’ve already established that Lawson has the outside shot Washington lacked. I think Washington’s being here might establish that this process needs a little tweaking. Gary Payton and Chris Paul also showed up in his top 10. I doubt there’s much to take from this though, since the most similar player is only at .843.
3. Nick Calathes, Florida: I’m still not sure if he belongs at PG, or if he’s a SG or SF. I’m going to put him here, because that’s where everyone else seems to have him and this is where his stats best fit. He did run the Gator offense in the games I saw, so this is probably the best place. Calathes put up some numbers that were incredible, some of the best for any prospect in the country whether I put him at PG or SF. He’s signed to play in Greece next year, but it appears he’ll remain draft eligible and might even come back quickly if he likes his future NBA situation.
The knock on Calathes as a prospect is he’s too slow to play PG and too small to play SF in the NBA. Despite some great stats, he’s a tweener who will have trouble finding a role in the NBA. Since I go mainly by stats I really can’t do my analysis on such things. I can’t say whether not such analysis is spot on or just some sort of groupthink that morphs into common knowledge because it sounds right. I only go by numbers and the numbers say Calathes will be a pretty good pro. The most impressive number is his .555 percentage on 2 point shots. Any guard who hits 2 pointers above this rate or close to it has had a decent shot at NBA success:
| NCAA Sophomores |
2 pt. pct. |
3 pt. pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Jason Kidd |
.545 |
.362 |
19.0 |
10.3 |
2.1 |
11.8 |
| Allen Iverson |
.546 |
.366 |
30.5 |
5.7 |
1.2 |
9.3 |
| Rod Strickland |
.584 |
.533 |
20.0 |
8.0 |
2.3 |
7.3 |
| Baron Davis |
.548 |
.343 |
20.7 |
6.7 |
1.6 |
8.5 |
| Penny Hardaway |
.583 |
.332 |
24.4 |
6.8 |
1.9 |
13.0 |
| Rajon Rondo |
.540 |
.273 |
14.4 |
6.3 |
2.1 |
10.7 |
| Chris Duhon |
.541 |
.340 |
10.2 |
6.8 |
2.3 |
6.4 |
| Sherman Douglas |
.556 |
.327 |
21.3 |
9.3 |
2.4 |
5.4 |
| Eric Snow |
.576 |
.000 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
2.1 |
5.3 |
| Rumeal Robinson |
.577 |
.469 |
19.8 |
8.4 |
1.8 |
7.2 |
| Jeff McInnis |
.544 |
.393 |
14.4 |
6.2 |
2.5 |
6.3 |
| Khalid Reeves |
.542 |
.370 |
18.2 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
6.4 |
| Chris Herren |
.573 |
.362 |
23.1 |
6.0 |
1.6 |
5.6 |
| Shammond Williams |
.548 |
.387 |
16.5 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
6.1 |
| Will Avery |
.541 |
.411 |
19.2 |
6.5 |
1.9 |
6.5 |
| Reggie Geary |
.558 |
.303 |
10.1 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
8.3 |
| John Lucas |
.553 |
.311 |
15.1 |
5.0 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
| Adonis Jordan |
.580 |
.409 |
16.7 |
6.1 |
1.8 |
6.0 |
| Nick Calathes |
.555 |
.390 |
19.8 |
7.4 |
1.9 |
8.5 |
Before getting into Calathes’ place in this group, I want to mention that Rumeal Robinson and Chris Herren started college a year or two later than most prospects, so they were older. Robinson might even be considered the poster boy for older prospects who don’t live up to their college numbers. With PGs, the numbers should be a P40 of at least 18.0, an A40 of at least 6.0 and a RSB40 of at least 6.5. These aren’t hard and fast rules, but more like guidelines. Once a numbers goes below these levels, the red flags start waving. The lower they get, the more the flags turn into blaring alarms. Calathes fits in fairly comfortably with the top of this list. He’s not in the class of a Kidd or Iverson, but his numbers are strong across the board. He has none of the weak numbers in passing, defense and outside shooting that may have been red flags for some of the prospects who didn’t make it. Based on this Calathes would seem to be a solid prospect.
This doesn’t mean the quick NBA guards won’t destroy Calathes. But in the stats there’s no evidence that he’s any less effective defensively than other NCAA guards. His rate of steals is better than most guards whether they’re shooting, combo or point. He rebounds better than most guards and that’s a sign of NBA athleticism. Browsing the Gator box scores, there’s no trend of opposing guards lighting them up every night, in fact if anything the opposite if true. I’m not saying his lack of quickness isn’t going to be a problem or isn’t a reason for concern. I’m sure it is. The trend in the NBA is toward a quicker PG who can get into the lane and this is something that will work against Calathes. But he’s performed statistically about as well as any player can and for that reason I feel he’ll become a pretty solid pro.
Most similar players to Nick Calathes:
Gary Payton, junior: .910
Derek Anderson, sophomore: .906
Chris Paul, freshman: .899
Jarrett Jack, junior: .892
Baron Davis, sophomore: .889
This is a good group to be in with. All played long and prospered. Calathes should do the same.
4. Jrue Holiday, UCLA: I decided to rank Holiday with the PGs rather than the combos. The reason is everything about his numbers suggests this will be his position. He didn’t display the scorer’s mentality needed for a player looking to become a SG. Other than the scoring his PG numbers were pretty good considering Holiday wasn’t the lead PG for the Bruins. He hit .528 on 2-pointers and his A/TO and RSB40 were stellar. So this is clearly a PG. The problem is he’s a low scoring PG. This is never a good thing, but hardly insurmountable. There have been several PG prospects who were low scorers their freshman years but went on to become all-time greats including Payton, Stockton and Jackson. Holiday’s predecessor at UCLA, Russell Westbrook, only netted 15.0 P40 last year and he looks like he’ll be a pretty good one. So I doubt his low scoring is a huge concern. Here’s a table showing recent freshmen PGs who scored less than 15 P40 and over .500 2 pt. pct.
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Mike Conley |
.579 |
.304 |
14.3 |
2.8 |
7.5 |
| Baron Davis |
.624 |
.308 |
14.9 |
1.6 |
8.7 |
| Charlie Ward |
.508 |
.313 |
13.4 |
1.7 |
9.4 |
| Tyus Edney |
.536 |
.341 |
12.2 |
2.2 |
7.4 |
| Doug Overton |
.526 |
.296 |
11.6 |
2.1 |
5.5 |
| Randy Brown |
.519 |
.000 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
7.5 |
| Jacque Vaughn |
.504 |
.400 |
12.2 |
1.9 |
5.7 |
| Mustafa Shakur |
.514 |
.325 |
13.6 |
1.9 |
6.6 |
| Russell Robinson |
.557 |
.318 |
10.6 |
2.0 |
7.6 |
| Dee Brown |
.556 |
.336 |
14.4 |
2.7 |
6.6 |
| Travis Ford |
.526 |
.300 |
11.1 |
1.9 |
5.1 |
| Chris Corchiani |
.513 |
.500 |
10.3 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
| Reggie Geary |
.507 |
.226 |
8.0 |
2.0 |
6.6 |
| Gary Payton |
.470 |
.371 |
13.4 |
2.5 |
7.1 |
| Deron Williams |
.485 |
.354 |
9.3 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
| Jrue Holiday |
.528 |
.307 |
12.7 |
1.7 |
8.8 |
Payton and Williams didn’t fit the criteria, but I threw their frosh years in there anyways because they’re a couple of pretty good players who didn’t exactly fill it up. The list isn’t all that impressive, but I left off some pretty good players from the 80s because I don’t have the breakdown of their FG percentages. I’m also a little wary of 80s numbers that came before the shot clock. Back to Holiday, the important stat here is his 8.8 RSB. In general the players with the better RSB40 number performed much better and had longer careers than those who were lower. Whether this means he’s the next Baron Davis, Randy Brown or something in between is the ultimate question.
I can’t say Holiday will or is even likely to become a star, but there’s nothing in his numbers that say he won’t. There are no real red flags here. I’d like him a lot better if he had been a dominator offensively. Especially since the Bruins needed a player to step into the star role this year. I’d also like for his 3-point pct. to be better than the .307 he posted. In his defense, UCLA has been a place where guards have outperformed their college numbers in the pros for the past few years. Farmar, Afflalo and Westbrook have all been better than what their numbers would have suggested to varying degrees. It’s very possible Holiday and Collison will do the same. Considering that his numbers are pretty strong when looked at in the right context and the fact that his size/athleticism combination made him a top 5 prospect coming in, I would say that Jrue Holiday would be a solid pick for any team drafting after the top 5.
Most similar players to Jrue Holiday:
Dee Brown: .879
Jeff Capel: .870
Brent Barry: .857
Tyronn Lue: .830
Othell Wilson: .829
With Holiday I went strictly with freshmen. I figured this was best, since he’s talented, but raw and did not get a shot to play his best position. Not much to be gleaned from this as there’s no one here who is particularly close. That’s the Illinois Dee Brown, not the superior player from Jacksonville.
5. Aaron Jackson, Duquense: This was quite a terrific season Jackson put up. The most impressive part was his scoring. A FG pct. of .554 combined with 20.4 P40 just doesn’t happen that often. Any player posting such numbers has to be taken seriously as a prospect. The fact that his other numbers show nothing in the way in the way of a red flag and he stands 6’4” makes Jackson a very intriguing prospect. Below is the table I used in the Lawson evaluation, comparing Jackson with the same group of past players who put together seasons with similarly strong frequency and efficiency in scoring points.
| Player | FG Pct. | 3 pt. Pct. | P40 | A40 | A/TO | RSB40 | TO40 |
| John Stockton |
.577 |
NA |
22.2 |
7.6 |
2.2 |
6.8 |
3.5 |
| Tim Hardaway |
.548 |
.366 |
21.4 |
6.1 |
2.0 |
7.9 |
3.0 |
| Rod Strickland |
.528 |
.444 |
24.9 |
9.7 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
3.9 |
| Steve Francis |
.523 |
.388 |
22.2 |
5.8 |
1.5 |
9.8 |
3.9 |
| Mark Price |
.528 |
NA |
19.6 |
4.9 |
1.7 |
5.4 |
2.9 |
| Andre Miller |
.549 |
.333 |
18.0 |
6.6 |
2.1 |
10.2 |
3.2 |
| Kirk Hinrich |
.542 |
.478 |
19.3 |
6.5 |
1.9 |
8.8 |
3.4 |
| Sherman Douglas |
.546 |
.368 |
20.6 |
9.7 |
2.4 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
| Jason Williams |
.522 |
.380 |
18.4 |
8.7 |
2.4 |
7.8 |
3.7 |
| Scott Skiles |
.554 |
NA |
29.0 |
6.9 |
2.0 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
| Gary Grant |
.530 |
.444 |
24.1 |
7.9 |
1.6 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
| Johnny Dawkins |
.549 |
NA |
24.4 |
3.9 |
1.2 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
| Rumeal Robinson |
.557 |
.469 |
19.8 |
8.4 |
1.8 |
7.2 |
4.7 |
| Pearl Washington |
.535 |
NA |
21.4 |
9.7 |
2.4 |
6.3 |
4.1 |
| Darryl Johnson |
.529 |
.371 |
23.7 |
4.3 |
1.1 |
6.3 |
3.9 |
| Aaron Jackson |
.554 |
.405 |
20.4 |
6.0 |
1.9 |
7.6 |
3.2 |
Like Lawson, Jackson fits in with the better players in this group. He doesn’t have the dominating passing numbers of Lawson, but the numbers aren’t so poor that one could say he hasn’t proven he can play the point. OK, so Aaron Jackson has posted a great senior season. The question now would be: Where has he been the past 3 seasons? or: Is this season a fluke that shouldn’t be taken seriously? The 2nd question is sort of silly. Any season this good must be taken somewhat seriously. It also has to be weighed against a player’s entire body of work and the situation he was in.
First thing to do is look at Jackson’s career at Duquense:
| Aaron Jackson |
FG pct. |
3 pt. pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
RSB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
.419 |
.347 |
8.8 |
4.6 |
5.7 |
1.7 |
| Sophomore |
.511 |
.315 |
14.0 |
6.4 |
8.3 |
1.7 |
| Junior |
.549 |
.240 |
13.6 |
6.1 |
8.4 |
2.0 |
| Senior |
..554 |
.405 |
20.4 |
6.0 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
Jackson was an efficient scorer his sophomore and junior seasons following an unimpressive freshman year. His weak outside shot would have been an issue. His passing and defensive numbers were solid. At the time his junior year ended it would have been stretching it to call him a prospect, because he hadn’t shown he could take on a bigger scoring load or consistently hit the outside shot. As a senior he did that in resounding fashion. The question now is whether or not the player he became as a senior was one who had been hidden by a system or situation at Duquense. To explain better here’s a look at Duquense during Jackson’s 4 seasons there:
- 2005-06: The Dukes were led by senior PG Bryant McAllister and had little else. The team finished 3-24 and fired their coach following the season. Jackson started at the other guard position, finished 2nd in the team in minutes and looked like the player most likely to inherit McAllister’s PG position.
- 2006-07: New coach Ron Everhart takes over. He brings in a couple of notable transfers in Shawn James and Kojo Mensah. Neither would be eligible until 2007-08. Mensah was brought to play PG. In the 2006-07 season Jackson starts at PG, leads the team in minutes and finishes 3rd on the team in scoring. The Dukes finished 10-19. There was some drama. Most notably there was an incident where Jackson and 4 other players were shot in late 2006.
- 2007-08: Mensah and James join the roster. Coach Everhart decides to try a balanced rotation, trying to give his top 8 players equal minutes and scoring opportunities. This results in 8 players averaging between 19 and 26 minutes per game and the top 7 scorers averaging from 8.2 to 12.6 PPG. It worked to some extent, as the Dukes improved to 17-13. But it wasn’t a system any player one player could really excel in. James and Mensah left Duquense to apply for the draft after the season. Mensah was officially the PG, but Jackson did lead the team in both minutes and assists.
- 2008-09: Everhart scraps the balanced rotation and goes to a system that features Jackson and sophomore forward Damian Saunders. Both players excel and the Dukes have the best season in years, going 21-13 and making the NIT.
Jackson didn’t get a chance to shine until his senior season. His first two seasons were spent taking a back seat in scoring to upperclassmen. His third year he shared the point with a higher profile player, while playing in a system where it would have been impossible for any player to stand out. As a senior he got his chance and sparkled both individually and as the leader of a successful team. It’s hard to call Jackson’s season a fluke. For the two previous years he shot over 50% and posted solid passing and defensive numbers. The question going into the season would have been: Can he handle an increased scoring load? He did that and did it better than practically any PG in the country.
Jackson is good in all the PG numbers. I’d like the assists to be a little higher, but that’s not a huge problem. Because he’s 6’4” and has shown himself to be an excellent scorer, he could probably handle either guard position. Aaron Jackson is a good prospect. He’s had a different road to this place than most. Because of that he’s going to have a slightly more difficult road to NBA success than a player like Flynn or Collison, who has been on the national stage for a couple of years. But his numbers suggest he’s the best college PG prospect out there other than Lawson.
Most similar players to Aaron Jackson:
Tim Hardaway, senior: .936
Andre Miller, junior: .895
Othell Wilson, senior .888
Kirk Hinrich, junior .885
John Stockton, senior .883
This is fairly impressive. Jackson will be a good test case for using stats to evaluate prospects. His numbers as a senior were sensational and the players he’s most similar to were generally successful. I would say he’s a player to watch. I just hope he gets himself drafted so he gets a chance.
6. Brandon Jennings, Lottomatica Roma: First thing to say is I hope Brandon Jennings does well, if for no other reason than if he fails there will be no shortage of NCAA apologists using him as exhibit A in what they’ll no doubt consider a rock solid case that choosing to play for pay in Europe instead of for free at an American college will certainly ruin each and every prospect who chooses to take that route. Jennings showed a lot of maturity going overseas at a young age. I consider this a good trait that will serve him well.
What doesn’t serve him well at this point are the numbers he’s been putting up. I can deal with the low P40 from a young player in Europe. But he hasn’t shot the ball particularly well, especially from behind the arc. His passing is so-so and his defensive numbers are shaky. He’s young and has some obvious upside. But right now he looks like a Telfair-type of player who brings more hype than game at a young age.
7. Darren Collison, UCLA: I’m looking back over his past numbers and I’m not really sure what made him somewhat of a prospect to watch for most of his career. He’s been a good, efficient scorer, with decent passing numbers. But the defensive numbers are weak and in all but his sophomore season he was at least somewhat overshadowed by his backcourt mate. Here’s his career:
| Darren Collison |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
.434 |
.328 |
11.5 |
4.7 |
1.1 |
5.8 |
| Sophomore |
.495 |
.447 |
15.8 |
7.1 |
2.0 |
5.7 |
| Junior |
.462 |
.525 |
16.9 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
5.3 |
| Senior |
.558 |
.394 |
18.6 |
6.1 |
1.9 |
5.4 |
His biggest strength is putting the ball into the basket efficiently and that’s what’s going to get him drafted and keep him in the league. The scoring numbers have been a little low, but he moved past 18 P40 as a senior and I think it’s safe to assume his numbers have been suppressed by getting fewer scoring opportunities because of his situation. His assist numbers have also been kept down some by playing behind Farmar as a freshman and Westbrook as a junior. As a senior he shared the position with Holiday. I do like that he was willing to put team first, especially as a junior when he did a solid job playing combo guard for most of the year. The defensive numbers have always been a tad low and this is a problem, because he’s a small guy to begin with.
I see Collison as becoming decent NBA backup. I think what will keep him in the league and get him on the court fairly often is his ability to shoot the 3-pointer. That’s a valuable thing for a player to have in his arsenal. Combine that with decent PG skills and ballhawking abilities and Collison seems like a good bet to have a decent run in this league. I don’t see him becoming a long-time starter at PG though.
Most similar players to Darren Collison:
Kevin Pritchard, junior: .957
Mark Jackson, senior: .915
Scott Skiles, junior: .914
Tony Brown, senior: .914
Jay Humphries, senior: .908
Collison compares more closely with Pritchard than any 2 players I looked at among the PGs. There are more successes than failures here and all are above .900. If I was being projected late in round one, this would make me feel better.
8. Eric Maynor, Virginia Commonwealth: Stepped up his scoring this season, which is good because he started to dominate a little more. For small college players dominating is important. Small college players do not often make the jump to the pros. In the case of PGs, it happens probably less than any other position. The only real successful one who immediately comes to mind is Terry Porter. To get an idea of where Maynor stands among recent small college PGs, here’s a comp of the best ones:
| Player |
FG pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Terry Porter |
.575 |
22.7 |
5.0 |
1.8 |
8.1 |
| Dee Brown |
.496 |
21.3 |
5.7 |
1.8 |
11.3 |
| Speedy Claxton |
.470 |
25.9 |
6.8 |
1.8 |
10.1 |
| Antonio Daniels |
.547 |
26.4 |
7.4 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
| Derek Fisher |
.410 |
16.1 |
5.7 |
1.9 |
7.9 |
| Anthony Johnson |
.505 |
16.2 |
8.3 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
| Eric Maynor |
.463 |
25.5 |
7.0 |
2.1 |
8.2 |
This is a tough one to call, because there’s no real trend I can see here. Every one of the players, other than perhaps Claxton, had a flaw or two in their numbers. Fisher didn’t look anything like a prospect his senior year, but was an important part of 3 championships and is still going strong at 34, albeit hardly as a traditional PG. Maynor stands up well against this group. He scores and passes well. He doesn’t have the low RSB that would have been a red flag in the case of Daniels.
I don’t see anything here that would say Erci Maynor can’t play at the NBA level. I also don’t see anything that says he’s more than an average NBA PG. He has no dominating numbers like Porter’s .575 FG pct., or Brown and Claxton reaching double figures in RSB40. He’s been a good player and in addition to solid stats, he’s had some nice tournament moments. But there’s also little here that suggests he’s more than a journeyman reserve. There will be no comps for Maynor as I just don’t have that much data on small college players.
9. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse: He’s busted into the lottery and even the top 10 in some mocks. I’m not sure where this comes from, as his numbers broken down by month don’t show any great improvement:
| Jonny Flynn |
2 pt. pct. |
3 pt. pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Nov.-Dec. |
.606 |
.373 |
20.3 |
6.2 |
1.5 |
5.0 |
| January |
.423 |
.323 |
16.0 |
6.9 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
| February |
.468 |
.304 |
19.8 |
7.5 |
2.1 |
4.9 |
| March |
.550 |
.243 |
16.3 |
7.4 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
Ignoring the pre-season numbers which were posted against weaker competition and are often misleading, Flynn showed some improvement. He became a strong passer and his two-point scoring efficiency steadily improved. That’s all good, but his game is still full of weaknesses. He hasn’t been able to consistently hit three-pointers and his defensive numbers are terrible. Since he’s only a soph we can cut him a little slack, but not much. There have been some great NBA PGs who weren’t even on the radar as sophomores and Flynn is way ahead of that. Because he has some quickness and athleticism, he’s worth a look. But there are too many red flags in his numbers for me to buy into him as a lottery pick in a draft that’s deep with quality PGs. His scoring totals are low and that’s always been a big hurdle to overcome. His outside shot is shaky. The biggest one is his weak defensive numbers. Right now it’s hard to see Flynn as anything other than a reserve.
Most similar players to Jonny Flynn:
Andre Woolridge, sophomore: .905
Devin Montgomery, junior: .904
Leon Wood, sophomore: .878
Chucky Atkins, junior: .878
Negele Knight, junior: .875
Fun fact: In 1984 Leon Wood was drafted #10 by the Philadelphia 76ers. John Stockton was still on the board and eventually went at #16 to the Utah Jazz. Wood played 6 uneventful seasons and only 4531 minutes. Stockton became the all-time leader in steals and assists and is a certain HOFer.
10. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland: He has good size and numbers that are solid enough. His biggest problem as a prospect is he’s an inefficient scorer. There are very few PG prospects who were inefficient scorers in college who went on to become stars. The only one I could find was Van Exel and calling him a star is only due to his one all-star appearance. There have been plenty of players who went on to decent journeyman careers following a college career that featured inefficient offense. The best were Van Exel, Jamaal Tinsley, Brevin Knight and Rafer Alston. But there have been many more who failed because of that inefficient offense. The most common characteristics of successful PGs with inefficient offense has been a high A40, usually well over 7.0 and/or a RSB40 over 8.0. Vasquez has the RSB40, but not the assists.
I give him a decent chance to stick around awhile as a reserve. He has better size than most PGs and that’s an attractive thing. It gives him a uniqueness that might appeal to teams looking to add some size to their backcourt in round 2. The fact that he’s big enough to play and defend SG should help his cause.
Most similar players to Greivis Vasquez:
Michael Williams, senior .912
Vonteego Cummings, senior: .904
Khalid el-Amin, senior: .903
Jason Hart, junior: .884
Tim Bowers, senior: .875
That’s not the Michael Williams from Baylor who played for a decade, this one is from mid-90s UMass.
The best of the rest:
I’m going to bunch 3 players together here. Seniors Jeremy Pargo, LeVance Fields and Dominic James have similar numbers. They’re all low-scoring, but otherwise fairly solid college PGs. PGs and non-scorers in general, rarely make it. Here are some recent PGs who have gone on to forge decent pro careers despite not scoring much as college players. Fields, James and Pargo are at the bottom:
| NCAA Senior PG |
2 pt. pct. |
3 pt. pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Brian Shaw |
.500 |
.351 |
14.9 |
6.8 |
1.9 |
11.8 |
| Greg Anthony |
.492 |
.395 |
14.8 |
11.3 |
4.6 |
6.8 |
| Muggsy Bogues |
.519 |
.443 |
15.1 |
9.8 |
2.6 |
6.4 |
| Steve Blake |
.413 |
.416 |
14.3 |
8.8 |
2.2 |
6.7 |
| Eric Snow |
.547 |
.292 |
13.2 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
| Jacque Vaughn |
.466 |
.333 |
12.9 |
7.9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
| Charlie Ward |
.476 |
.253 |
11.7 |
5.4 |
1.9 |
7.5 |
| Chris Duhon |
.514 |
.302 |
11.3 |
6.9 |
2.2 |
7.2 |
| LeVance Fields |
.439 |
.341 |
13.1 |
9.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
| Dominic James |
.517 |
.284 |
13.4 |
6.1 |
2.7 |
7.2 |
| Jeremy Pargo |
.513 |
.359 |
13.7 |
6.6 |
2.1 |
6.6 |
If there’s a trend here’s it’s that these players were steady, low-mistake floor general types. With the exception of Ward and Shaw all played for powerhouse programs. For the most part they were all efficient scorers. With the exception of Vaughn all players posted a RSB40 that was strong enough. It’s worth noting that Ward’s numbers are for only half a season, because he was busy winning a Heisman trophy and a Championship on the gridiron that fall.
Fields is the low-mistake floor general from the strong program, but he isn’t an efficient scorer and has that low RSB40. I would say he’s very much a long shot. James was more of a combo the past couple of years. He switched to playing more of a pure PG as a senior while McNeal and Matthews handled the scoring. My problem with him is the assist numbers are low and he’s never been much of a three-point shooter. Pargo is an interesting player. All his numbers have always been decent, except for the low P40. He has the excuse of playing for a talented team that might allow us to excuse the low number, but it doesn’t always work out that way. I give him the best shot of the three to make it.
Most similar players to Jeremy Pargo:
Torris Bright, senior: .931
Tracy Webster, junior: .903
Alvin Williams, junior: .898
Chris Duhon, senior: .890
Earl Watson, junior: .887
Dominic James:
Pat Baldwin, junior: .922
Jeff Horner, junior: .903
Josh Fisher, senior: .902
Steven Bardo, senior: .881
Chuck Eidson, senior: .866
LeVance Fields:
Travis Ford, senior: .816
Aaron Miles, junior: .789
Mateen Cleaves, junior: .777
Chris Herren, senior: .765
Chris Duhon, junior: .761
This helps the notion that Pargo is best-suited of this trio to catch on as a reserve. Fields isn’t really comparable to any player. The group I have up there for James is going to have people accusing me of making up names.
Ben Woodside, North Dakota and David Holston, Chicago State: These are a couple of small college PGs. Woodside is on the radar due to a great performance in a tournament loss to Kansas. Holston is just another too-short small college guy with gaudy scoring numbers. I doubt either one will ever don a NBA uniform, but I want to compare their numbers:
| Player |
2 pt pct. |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
TO40 |
RSB40 |
| Ben Woodside |
.481 |
.427 |
26.4 |
7.0 |
3.6 |
5.5 |
| David Holston |
.515 |
.371 |
29.6 |
7.3 |
4.7 |
7.7 |
What I’m showing here is the importance of getting some exposure. There isn’t much difference between these two players. If anything I’d prefer Holston going strictly by stats. But Woodside might get drafted and Holston has no prayer. Woodside had the big tournament moments both in the NCAA and the Summit League. Holston plays for a team that doesn’t even have a conference. The lesson here for marginal, small college prospects is get all the exposure you can. Like I mentioned, neither one is much of a prospect. I just thought this was semi-interesting.
16. Curtis Jerrells, Baylor: Had some decent numbers, but I just can’t make them add up to where he’s a worthwhile prospect, or even intriguing. My suspicion is his numbers were hurt a little by sharing the point with Tweety Carter and playing in Baylor’s four-guard offense. Even taking that into account I’m not sure what his ceiling would be. I’ll put it this way with Jerrells, I can’t justify using a draft pick on him, even in round two. That said, if my team did get him with a late second round pick or as a UFA, I would be happy about it and looking forward to watching him play with some amount of anticipation.
Most similar players to Curtis Jerrells:
Vonteego Cummings, junior: .925
John Celestand, senior: .897
Blake Stepp, junior: .893
Coby Karl, junior: .889
John Gilchrist, junior: .888
A couple other players of interest who I have little positive to say about as prospects, but might find themselves drafted:
AJ Price
Khalid el-Amin, junior: .924
Jaron Boone, senior: .916
Carl Krauser, senior: .899
Shammond Williams, senior: .897
Stevin Smith, senior: .891
Tyrese Rice:
Carl Krauser, junior: .929
Vonteego Cummings, junior: .900
Tony Akins, senior: .888
Luke Ridnour, junior: .881
Blake Stepp, junior: .880