1. Cavs/Magic Aftermath: After Orlando closed out the Cleveland on Saturday, we’ve all been buzzing about what kind of fallout there will be for the Cavs. Before we worry too much about the hysteria we should all recognize that the Magic’s win over the Cavs was convincing and had no hallmarks of a fluke. It is true that coming into the series, the Cavs were the clear favorites. They had the best regular season record and had smoked all playoff competition, while the Magic were pretty good but didn’t exactly dominate Philadelphia or Boston in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Nevertheless, Orlando was both a good team and a bad match up for the Cavs.
In retrospect, we can note that the Magic had played Cleveland well in the regular season and that the Cavs big men were too slow (Ilgauskas), too weak (Varejeao), or too short and offensively challenged (Wallace) to guard Dwight Howard. The fact is, however, the Magic played a great series and could have easily swept the Cavs but for one incredible LeBron James shot. On the other side, the Cavs were very close to taking this thing to a Game 7.
Is this loss an epic failure for the Cavs? Well, it certainly registers as a disappointment for a 66-win team, as most teams at that level of dominance win it all. Cleveland also has a Simple Rating Score (“SRS”) of 8.68, easily the best in the NBA (you can see SRS explained over at Basketball-Reference.com). Another factor that makes this loss more disappointment is that it “felt” like this was James’ time. The Cavs success and James’ star power harkened to Michael Jordan’s cakewalk coronation in 1990-91. Still, feelings and intuition don’t guarantee I thought we’d go through the history and see similarly high rated team and how they turned out. We’ll take all teams with SRS over 8.00 in NBA history and see how they did in the playoffs:
-2007-08 Celtics (66-16, 9.31 SRS): won title
-2006-07 Spurs (58-24, 8.35 SRS): won title
-1999-00 Lakers (67-15, 8.41 SRS): won title
-1996-97 Bulls (69-13, 10.70 SRS): won title
-1995-96 Bulls (72-10, 11.80 SRS): won title
-1993-94 Sonics (63-19, 8.68 SRS): lost to Denver in first round
-1991-92 Bulls (67-15, 10.07 SRS): won title
-1990-91 Bulls (61-21, 8.57 SRS): won title
-1990-91 Blazers (63-19, 8.47 SRS): lost to Lakers in Conference Finals
-1986-87 Lakers (65-17, 8.32 SRS): won title
-1985-86 Celtics (67-15, 9.06 SRS): won title
-1985-86 Bucks (57-25, 8.69 SRS): lost to Celtics in Conference Finals
-1972-73 Lakers (60-22, 8.18 SRS): lost to Knicks in NBA Finals
-1971-72 Lakers (69-13, 11.65 SRS): won title
-1971-72 Bucks (63-19, 10.70 SRS): lost to Lakers in Conference Finals
-1970-71 Bucks (66-16, 11.91 SRS): won title
-1969-70 Knicks (60-22, 8.42 SRS): won title
-1966-67 76ers (68-13, 8.50 SRS): won title
-1961-62 Celtics (60-20, 8.25 SRS): won title
As you can see, breaking an 8.00 in SRS is a pretty special accomplishment and it usually means title. Before Cleveland this year, of the 19 teams to break 8.00, only five haven’t won a title. Of that group, three of the teams didn’t actually have the best SRS in their league anyway. Can Cleveland take some solace from those that also lost without winning a title? Well, the 1993-94 Sonics famously were upset by the Dikembe Mutombo Nuggets. After that loss to the Nuggets, another great Sonics team lost in the first round to the Lakers in 1994-95 and there was an outcry to trade their best player (Shawn Kemp) for Scottie Pippen. The deal fell through and it worked out pretty well for Seattle. They remained a really good team for another four years and made an NBA Finals (1995-96) but never won a title. So, they turned out fine and probably would’ve won a title in a world without Jordan.
The 1990-91 Blazers didn’t have the best SRS but, at the time, it wasn’t clear that the Jordan Bulls (who were also emerging) were the emerging dynasty of the 1990s and we were set for an epic showdown. Problem was that Blazers couldn’t get past the old Magic Johnson Lakers in the Conference Finals. The Lakers were not quite on the Blazers’ level talent-wise. The Lakers, however, won in a similar manner to the Magic this year, by stealing Game 1 in Portland (Magic had 15 pts, 21 asts, and Worthy had 28 pts). I’m not sure if this is an indicator for this year’s Finals but the Lakers upset didn’t transfer to the next round and they were smoked by the Bulls 4-1. The Blazers did go on to make the NBA Finals in 1991-92 and lost to the Bulls 4-2 before falling apart as a title contender. If there is a lesson for the Cavs, it’s not to despair. They were very close to a title and, by all rights (and indicators), were on the way. I suspect if everyone is healthy, 2009-10 could be that title season.
Finally, it should be noted that the 2006-07 Mavericks who were upset in the first round by the Warriors didn’t have an astoundingly high SRS, despite their 67-15 record. The team with the best SRS was the title winning Spurs. Obviously, the Mavs loss was a much more bitter pill than the Cavs loss this year but Dallas was not actually the best team in the NBA that season.
2. Forget LeBron, What’s Next?: By the way, there is life after LeBron. In this case, it’s an interesting Finals between the Magic and the Lakers. Without even looking at the numbers, it does seem that the Lakers are the favorites. The Lakers’ vulnerabilities, scoring point guards and bruising big men, aren’t the Magic strengths. Moreover, Lamar Odom is a perfect size match up for the more perimeter-oriented Rashard Lewis and there is little to guard Kobe Bryant with (Courtney Lee and Hedo Turkoglu). The big factors that favor Orlando are Dwight Howard and Dwight Howard. Pau Gasol and Odom are too weak to hold down Howard, which makes Andrew Bynum a huge factor. Bynum has the strength but not the quickness. He struggled with foul trouble and effectiveness in the quick pace of the Nuggets series but he might have a chance to make an impact against the slower Magic. The Magic even won both regular season match ups with L.A. but they had Jameer Nelson in both games (he average 27.5 ppg in the two wins) and I am skeptical that Rafer Alston can do what Nelson did.
Now there are some rumors that Nelson may try to come back for the Finals and, if he were healthy, he’d make a huge difference but what are the chances that he’ll be healthy and ready after sitting out half the season? In the end, I think the Lakers have too much talent and better match ups to lose this series. The Magic has surprised me several times and I do believe they could win this series but I doubt it’ll happen. Prediction: Lakers win 4-2.