We’ve been off the grid for a bit, but we’re back and ready to delve into some hoops minutiae. Today, I was wondering about the Heat and the Grizz and how hot or cold starts to the NBA season have turned out. The Heat started 0-4 but have won their last two games. The Grizzlies are 5-0 and the only undefeated team in the NBA.
How real are these starts? Before the season, there was wide variation in expectations: some thought that Giannis Antetokounmpo plus Erik Spoelstra equaled a contender, while others thought that Giannis wasn’t quite as good as advertised and that the team lacked depth.
The early returns are consistent with the latter view. Giannis’ offensive stats are within his normal range. The primary issue is that the Heat rank 24th on defense, and Giannis’ DBPM is the lowest it has been since 2017-18. The older perimeter players Tim Hardaway and Klay Thompson have also struggled. Miami ranks 29th in opponent three-pointers made (17 per game) and opponent three-point field goal percentage (.405). Even in their last two wins, the Heat gave up a lot of points. Miami should still be a playoff team, but there are clear warning signs that its ceiling is low unless significant changes are made.
As for the Grizz, they are obviously not likely to maintain a top-seed pace. Their five wins are against teams likely to be play-in or non-playoff teams (though four of the wins were on the road). Ty Jerome probably won’t average 26 PPG for the season. Still, Jerome is a good player, and the Grizzlies have several other good young players in Cam Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, and Zach Edey. After all the tumult of the final Ja Morant years, it’s nice to see good vibes in Memphis.
As always, I am more curious about the historical context. How often do 0-4 teams make the playoffs and, if they do, how do they usually fare? Similarly, how often do 5-0 teams make deep playoff runs? Let’s examine both questions.
0-4 starts and playoff runs
A few years ago, we looked at the teams that had the longest losing streaks but still made the playoffs. We found five teams, since the NBA adopted the 16-team playoff format in 1983-84, that lost seven or more games to start the season but still made the playoffs (most notably the 1996-97 Suns, who started 0-13 but closed out the season 40-29). Now we ask a slightly different question: How often do teams start 0-4 and still make the playoffs?
Thanks to Basketball-Reference.com, we have a list of 0-4 teams since 1983-84, together with their final records and playoff results:
| Team | Year | Final Record | Postseason Outcome |
| DET | 2024-25 | 44-38 | Lost in First Round |
| SAC | 2022-23 | 48-34 | Lost in First Round |
| LAL | 2022-23 | 43-39 | Lost in WCF |
| WAS | 2020-21 | 34-38 | Lost in First Round |
| OKC | 2018-19 | 49-33 | Lost in First Round |
| PHI | 2010-11 | 41-41 | Lost in First Round |
| WAS | 2007-08 | 43-39 | Lost in First Round |
| DAL | 2006-07 | 67-15 | Lost in First Round |
| CHI | 2004-05 | 47-35 | Lost in First Round |
| MEM | 2004-05 | 45-37 | Lost in First Round |
| MIA | 2003-04 | 42-40 | Lost in Second Round |
| PHI | 2001-02 | 43-39 | Lost in First Round |
| DET | 1999-00 | 42-40 | Lost in First Round |
| PHO | 1996-97 | 40-42 | Lost in First Round |
| CLE | 1995-96 | 47-35 | Lost in First Round |
| ATL | 1994-95 | 42-40 | Lost in First Round |
| CLE | 1989-90 | 42-40 | Lost in First Round |
| NYK | 1987-88 | 38-44 | Lost in First Round |
| POR | 1986-87 | 49-33 | Lost in First Round |
| CLE | 1984-85 | 36-46 | Lost in First Round |
Here are the takeaways from this data:
- In the past 43 years, 20 teams have gone on to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start. That’s roughly one such team every other year.
- For the most part, the 20 teams were pretty average. Their average record was 44-38, and 18 of the 20 teams failed to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs.
- Only three of the teams won more than 48 games. The only true title contender in the group was the 2006-07 Mavs, who won an astounding 67 games after that tough start. How could a team this good lose four straight games to start the season? It may have been a hangover from blowing a 2-0 lead against the Heat in the 2005-06 Finals. Marc Stein reported at the time: “These Mavs don’t look anything like last season’s Mavs yet. Offensively or defensively … the Mavs suddenly can’t guard a chair. In back-to-back losses to Houston and Golden State, Dallas allowed 107 points in each game.” (The NBA league average was only 98.7 PPG that season.) The Mavs then promptly ripped off 12 wins in a row and went on a 61-7 run overall before easing up and going 6-4 to close the season. The Mavs blew away the NBA in wins (67), though their point differential suggested they were a little less dominant (an expected record of 61-21). Either way, they were a bona fide title contender. Ironically, Dallas ended up losing in the first round to the eighth-seeded Warriors.
- Other teams with high win totals that were also dispatched in the first round were the 2018-19 Thunder and the 2022-23 Kings. OKC was a very good team built around peak Russell Westbrook and Paul George (remember that team?). The Thunder were only a sixth seed and lost to Portland on one of Dame Lillard’s logo shots.
- The 2022-23 Kings’ division win feels like it happened a hundred years ago. Sacramento had the top offense in the NBA (but ranked 25th on defense). The Kings lost a tough seven-game series to the Warriors. Sacramento played Golden State evenly for the first six games but lost after De’Aaron Fox broke his finger eary in the series and couldn’t shoot, while Steph Curry went for 50 in Game 7.
- The only two teams to win a playoff series were the 2003-04 Heat, who beat the Hornets thanks to rookie Dwyane Wade’s series-winner, and the 2022-23 Lakers. The Heat-Hornets matchup featured two .500-ish teams. The Lakers struggled with injuries and the poor fit of Westbrook. After they traded Russ, the team fit together much better, and they made the Western Conference Finals before getting swept by the Nuggets.
The historical data on 0-4 starts doesn’t mean the 2026-27 Heat can’t be more than first-round fodder, but things don’t look good.
5-0 starts and title contention
A hot start to the season, however, almost guarantees a playoff appearance. Since 1983-84, only four teams have started 5-0 and missed the playoffs: the 1985-86 Clippers, the 1994-95 Warriors, the 1998-99 Sonics, and, most recently, the 2025-26 Bulls. We looked at the circumstances of those hot starts here.
Today, we are going to look at the 5-0 teams that did make the playoffs, with an eye toward whether starting 5-0 usually makes a team a serious contender or just another playoff team. Our search of the data from 1983-84 to the present (thanks again B-Ref) indicates that 57 teams started 5-0 and made the playoffs, as follows:
| Team | Year | Final Record | Postseason Outcome |
| PHO | 1984-85 | 36-46 | Lost in First Round |
| PHI | 1984-85 | 58-24 | Lost in ECF |
| BOS | 1984-85 | 63-19 | Lost in Finals |
| HOU | 1984-85 | 48-34 | Lost in First Round |
| DEN | 1984-85 | 47-35 | Lost in WCF |
| ATL | 1986-87 | 57-25 | Lost in First Round |
| LAL | 1987-88 | 62-20 | Won Championship |
| BOS | 1987-88 | 57-25 | Lost in ECF |
| DET | 1988-89 | 63-19 | Won Championship |
| POR | 1990-91 | 63-19 | Lost in WCF |
| POR | 1992-93 | 51-31 | Lost in First Round |
| NYK | 1993-94 | 57-25 | Lost in Finals |
| HOU | 1993-94 | 58-24 | Won Championship |
| SEA | 1993-94 | 63-19 | Lost in First Round |
| HOU | 1994-95 | 47-35 | Won Championship |
| SAC | 1995-96 | 39-43 | Lost in First Round |
| CHI | 1995-96 | 72-10 | Won Championship |
| HOU | 1996-97 | 57-25 | Lost in WCF |
| CHI | 1996-97 | 69-13 | Won Championship |
| ATL | 1997-98 | 50-32 | Lost in First Round |
| LAL | 1997-98 | 61-21 | Lost in WCF |
| UTA | 1998-99 | 37-13 | Lost in Second Round |
| PHI | 2000-01 | 56-26 | Lost in Finals |
| UTA | 2000-01 | 53-29 | Lost in First Round |
| MIN | 2001-02 | 50-32 | Lost in First Round |
| LAL | 2001-02 | 58-24 | Won Championship |
| DAL | 2002-03 | 60-22 | Lost in WCF |
| LAL | 2003-04 | 56-26 | Lost in Finals |
| DET | 2005-06 | 64-18 | Lost in ECF |
| BOS | 2007-08 | 66-16 | Won Championship |
| LAL | 2008-09 | 65-17 | Won Championship |
| ATL | 2008-09 | 47-35 | Lost in Second Round |
| UTA | 2008-09 | 48-34 | Lost in First Round |
| BOS | 2009-10 | 50-32 | Lost in Finals |
| DEN | 2009-10 | 53-29 | Lost in First Round |
| LAL | 2010-11 | 57-25 | Lost in Second Round |
| NOH | 2010-11 | 46-36 | Lost in First Round |
| ATL | 2010-11 | 44-38 | Lost in Second Round |
| OKC | 2011-12 | 47-19 | Lost in Finals |
| MIA | 2011-12 | 46-20 | Won Championship |
| NYK | 2012-13 | 54-28 | Lost in Second Round |
| IND | 2013-14 | 56-26 | Lost in ECF |
| HOU | 2014-15 | 56-26 | Lost in WCF |
| MEM | 2014-15 | 55-27 | Lost in Second Round |
| GSW | 2014-15 | 67-15 | Won Championship |
| GSW | 2015-16 | 73-9 | Lost in Finals |
| TOR | 2015-16 | 56-26 | Lost in ECF |
| CLE | 2016-17 | 51-31 | Lost in Finals |
| TOR | 2018-19 | 58-24 | Won Championship |
| MIL | 2018-19 | 60-22 | Lost in ECF |
| PHI | 2019-20 | 43-30 | Lost in First Round |
| MIL | 2022-23 | 58-24 | Lost in First Round |
| BOS | 2023-24 | 64-18 | Won Championship |
| CLE | 2024-25 | 64-18 | Lost in Second Round |
| OKC | 2024-25 | 68-14 | Won Championship |
| OKC | 2025-26 | 64-18 | Lost in WCF |
| SAS | 2025-26 | 62-20 | Lost in Finals |
Starting 5-0 is a very good indicator of success. The 57 teams above averaged a record of 57-25 (the teams from shortened seasons were prorated to 82 games). If you add the four 5-0 teams that missed the playoffs, the average record is still a robust 55-27.
In terms of how well these teams did in the playoffs, here’s the distribution:
4 teams missed the playoffs (6.6%)
14 teams lost in the first round (23.0%)
7 teams lost in the second round (11.5%)
13 teams lost in the Conference Finals (21.3%)
9 teams lost in the Finals (14.8%)
14 teams won the title (23.0%)
So, a 5-0 team is just as likely to win a title as it is to lose in the first round of the playoffs. This doesn’t mean that the Grizz are title contenders, but it does show that they are very likely to make the playoffs—a possibility that was considered slim entering the season.