In most of the mocks I’ve seen around the WWW there are two freshmen PFs, Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh, who have been consistently in the lottery and the top 2 PFs listed. Currently Vonleh is holding strong at #5 while Randle is around #7, but seems in danger of sliding lower, possibly even becoming the draft day slider.
Both boast rebounding as their top strength, having averaged over 13.0 R40 during their freshmen years. This is quite an impressive number that isn’t reached by too many PFs at this young an age. Here are the PFs who have hit this mark as freshmen since 1990 along with Vonleh and Randle:
|
Freshman PFs |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
S40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Zach Randolph |
590 |
21.8 |
13.5 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| Antonio McDyess |
564 |
19.2 |
13.6 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
0.2 |
| Joe Smith |
523 |
23.6 |
13.0 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
| Ty Thomas |
606 |
19.1 |
14.2 |
1.6 |
4.8 |
0.7 |
| Michael Ruffin |
538 |
12.4 |
13.5 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
| Eddie Griffin |
469 |
21.8 |
13.2 |
1.1 |
5.4 |
0.7 |
| Michael Smith |
498 |
15.2 |
14.6 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
0.5 |
| Kebu Stewart |
495 |
22.5 |
13.9 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
| Brad Buckman |
524 |
16.7 |
13.2 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
| Noah Vonleh |
530 |
16.7 |
13.3 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
| Julius Randle |
516 |
18.7 |
13.0 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
This isn’t a wildly impressive list. There are a couple of players who made all-star games in Randolph and McDyess. Randolph and McDyess were 2 of the 3 players on the list who topped a .560 2PP and 2 of the 6 who topped 19.0 P40. Randolph and the 2 who had the shortest NBA careers, Stewart and Buckman, were all under 3.5 SB40. There really isn’t much else here to distinguish the successes from the flops. With both Vonleh and Randle missing all these numbers it would appear they have some work to do if they’re going to justify the top 10 pick it appears could be spent on them.
Noah Vonleh, Indiana: In addition to showing promising rebounding skills, Noah Vonleh was also a solid outside shooter, hitting 16 of 33 attempts for a scorching .485 rate. It is a small sample, but suggests Vonleh has the potential to become a solid inside-outside threat. This is a nice skill to have, but the main job of a PF is to provide inside scoring rebounding, and defense. Looking at those skills, Vonleh is below average both offensively and defensively, but strong on rebounding.
Three-point shooting as a weapon has increased in usage and value since its adoption for the 1980 season. At the time many thought it was a gimmick and during the first 5 years teams on average attempted less than 3 shots per game from behind the arc. While it took a while for the NBA coaching brain trusts to come to the conclusion that 3>2, we are now in an era when teams routinely attempt 20+ three-pointers per game, including many by big men. Because of this the fact that Noah Vonleh might become a 3-point deadeye in addition to being a decent PF prospect makes him more valuable.
Playing PF is still very much about the rebounding and inside scoring though. On that level Vonleh is still more of a prospect with potential than a surefire pro. As the above list shows having great rebounding numbers as a freshman doesn’t necessarily make a prospect a lock for the NBA.
I don’t see Vonleh as a top prospect. Right now I feel #5 is a bit high for him. His defense appears to be substandard and his offense, diverse as it has the potential to be, might also come up a little short. His upside does make him the best of a weak crop of college PFs. He could have a decent career, but I doubt he’ll be much more than a good journeyman.
Julius Randle, Kentucky: It is very difficult to see Randle as the top prospect he’s been touted as for most of the season. He’s been a great rebounder and his offense is probably better than the .516 2PP suggests. But his defensive numbers are just too low to think that he can handle PF at something more than a reserve level in the NBA.
I set the benchmark for college PFs at 3.5 SB40. If a prospect falls much below that it is a red flag that will hurt his chances of making it. As a freshman Randle gets some leeway, but his 1.6 is too low to think this won’t be a problem at the next level. Even PFs who went on to become poor defenders in the NBA, like Charles Barkley, Carlos Boozer, Blake Griffin and Kevin Love, were all over 3.0 SB40 as college freshmen.
The other thing to look at with freshmen is whether or not they improved a weak point in their game during the season. Sometimes overall numbers are hurt by a slow start, but the player has figured things out and improved during the season. Here are Randle’s monthly splits:
|
Julius Randle |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
S40 |
B40 |
| November |
586 |
24.7 |
17.1 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| December |
596 |
22.0 |
9.9 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
| January |
456 |
16.6 |
12.7 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| February |
513 |
16.1 |
12.1 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
| March-April |
465 |
16.5 |
13.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
He did improve the defensive numbers during the season. In January he was even at a point where it looked like he improved things to a satisfactory level. The numbers faded after that though. There just isn’t much evidence in the splits that Julius Randle is anything more than a marginal PF prospect.
The thing to remember about things like blocks, steals, rebounds and scoring efficiency is these are all indicators of NBA-level athleticism. Players who accumulate a lot of blocks and steals and score efficiently are more likely to possess the athleticism necessary to excel in the NBA. Players who don’t are more likely to flop as high draft picks. Julius Randle hasn’t accumulated a high number of blocks and steals nor has he scored efficiently. This is not a player to draft in the lottery or possibly anywhere in round one. Randle looks like an NBA bench player at best.