In picking the NCAA tournament winner, and the final four teams, one important factor has stood out in recent years. Teams with the best big men do well. Not the big men who win college POY awards, but the big men who will be drafted in the top ten. There are other important things. It’s good for the backcourt to have as many good players as possible and a good coach is a nice thing to have. But the main thing is having a strong inside game. Going back the last 7 years, it’s clear that the teams with the best inside talent are in the best position to win:
2008: Kansas has four PFs or centers who will be drafted: Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldrich. I’m assuming on Aldrich, but it’s pretty safe assumption. They also play at least 3 perimeter players who will be drafted.
2006 and 2007: Florida wins consecutive championships with Al Horford and Joakim Noah, both eventual top 10 draft picks, in their frontcourt. Three other Gator starters are also drafted.
2005: North Carolina wins championship with 6 future draft picks including center Sean May who is drafted at #13. This was the height of the exodus of big players going straight from HS to college, so there was a dearth of good college big men.
2004: The only real good C/PF prospect in college is Emeka Okafor. He leads UConn to the championship.
2003: Syracuse beats Kansas in the final. Kansas probably had a slightly more impressive collection of talent. Syracuse had Carmelo Anthony. He is a SF, but did average 10 boards per game so he had some inside skills. They also had Hakim Warrick, now in the NBA, playing PF.
2002: Maryland, with the inside combo of Lonnie Baxter and Chris Wilcox take the title. Both are drafted, Wilcox in the top 10. Kansas probably had the more impressive inside game, but lost to Maryland in the semis. This is the point we start to wonder about Roy Williams’ coaching prowess.
There are other examples too. Most college PFs and centers from major colleges who were drafted in the top 10 since 2002 played in at least one final four. Those who haven’t either never played in the tournament or were only in college for one season. Any team with a strong inside game to go with a decent backcourt has a chance to win the championship. Teams lacking a good inside game have little chance of winning. Just looking at the top 4 seeds, this would eliminate Duke, Memphis, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Missouri, Xavier and Villanova from consideration. All good teams and it wouldn’t surprise me if 1 or 2 made the final 4. But none are going to win the championship.
The best big players theory would put Pitt, Oklahoma, Kansas, Connecticut and Wake Forest as favorites. I won’t consider Arizona, despite the presence of Jordan Hill, because they’re a 12 seed. These teams all have at least one PF or center who seems like a top 10 draft pick either this year or next. The next level would be North Carolina and Syracuse. Both these teams have at least a couple of inside players who aren’t on the level of the others, but look good enough to be considered draftable. I’ll throw Louisville into the mix too, because between their mix of Williams, Clark and Samuels and Pitino’s history of success, they have to be considered.
Here’s a look at each team in reverse order:
Syracuse: In Jackson, a soph who has come on strong this year, and Onuaku, Syracuse has one of the better frontcourts in the nation and has to be considered somewhat of a sleeper. Their season hasn’t been great. They started fast, but fell apart against a tough conference schedule. The “run” they got on in the conference tournament featured exactly one impressive win, the 6-OT classic against Connecticut. The talent is decent enough, but they hardly look like a power that’s ready to explode.
Wake Forest: Wake is as talented as any team in the country. They have 3 solid inside players in Johnson, Aminu and McFarland. The problem with Wake is they look confused on the court and the offense lacks focus. I’d say they could use a steady veteran PG, but they have one on the roster in Ismael Smith and don’t seem to want to use him. Their best player, Jeff Teague, has been slumping down the stretch. I just don’t see this team getting it together to make a run.
Kansas: Good inside-out combo in Aldrich and Collins, but the talent isn’t what they’re used to. Because they’re defending champs, we tend to forget that this team has a history of seriously underachieving in the tournament. One could even make the case that they underachieved last year, almost losing to Davidson and needing a miracle to beat Memphis when they were easily the best team in the tourney. Look for them to exit early.
Oklahoma: Simply put they have the best big guy in the country on their roster and that’s the most important thing. The supporting cast isn’t special, though Warren offers a nice outside option to Griffin. They haven’t had many impressive wins, but they have won a lot. They also face the toughest road of any team that’s in the top 8. Griffin makes them a contender, but the way they’ve struggled of late worries me. I say Griffin gets them to the regional final vs. NC, but no farther.
Connecticut: I’m having a hard time getting a feel for this team. Thabeet is a force, but he’s hardly a go-to guy on offense. He also comes into the tournament with the weakest supporting cast of any top seed. This team lost twice to Pitt, but won impressively at Louisville. I don’t feel they’re on the level of the other 3 top seeds. I think they’ll probably win their region, but that’s all.
Louisville: A hard team to figure, because I’ve never seen a team like them. The bulk of the production is provided by two players, Clark and Williams, who are inefficient scorers. There’s no inside force, but Clark and Williams provide enough in the way of rebounds and blocks that they get the job done. Because they have an easy region, I expect them to get to the final 4. I even like them getting to the final game, because I feel Pitino can beat just about any team given a week to prepare. But their inconsistent offense is going to be a tough hurdle to overcome.
Pitt: They way to beat the Panthers is simple: Get Dejuan Blair in foul trouble. That was the common factor in their 3 regular season losses this year. Blair’s minutes were limited by fouls. Of course if this were easy every team would do it. The problem for Pitt is they have very little behind Blair. Getting through 6 games against quality opponents without one of them succeeding in getting him into foul trouble seems like a tall order. The good thing for Pitt is they have an easy regional.
North Carolina: They don’t have a great inside game, but they do have 3 big guys in Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis who will likely be drafted and that’s been the criteria I’ve been using. They also have the best perimeter talent in the country. That’s the combination Kansas used last year to win. Another thing they have going for them is the teams with the top inside players all have little depth, so Carolina can even things out by throwing fresh bodies at the likes of Thabeet, Griffin and Blair in hopes of getting them into foul trouble. I’ve struggled coming up with a prediction this year and I still have no idea who to go with, because every team has something not to like about them. I’ll give my shaky vote to the Heels, simply because when I fill out a bracket it’s easiest to see them winning. No team has been as dominant when at their best and that’s usually a good sign. They have the horses that no other team has and there’s enough on the inside that they should be able to get through this and emerge with their second championship in 5 years.
First Round winners: Louisville, Ohio State, Utah, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, USC, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Portland State, Virginia Commonwealth, Villanova, Minnesota, Duke, North Carolina, Butler, Illinois, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma, Connecticut, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Marquette, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis.
Sweet 16: Louisville, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis.
Elite 8: Louisville, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Missouri.
Final 4: Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut.
Championship: Louisville, North Carolina.
Champion: North Carolina