Right now a good historical reference as to how the 2009 draft turns out might be the 1989 draft. This draft was weak at the top, but had some pretty good guards chosen later in round one. That’s a little how I think this one will end up. The draft is void of can’t-miss types, but is deep enough with wing players that I’m sure a sleeper or three will emerge from later in the draft.
I’ll list the prospects as I did last month. I feel it’s best to look draft prospects in this order:
- Can’t-miss stars
- Solid players who have flashed all-star potential and at the very least should become positive contributors.
- Young players who aren’t there yet, but have flashed enough potential that they’re worth investing a few years in.
- Players who do one or two things well enough that they could be useful as a role player.
- Player who may not have the numbers, but have shown a strong work ethic and good enough attitude to think they might make the necessary improvements.
There are other rules. Big guys who can play are so rare, that I wouldn’t blame any team for taking a flyer on someone like Greg Monroe ahead of a smaller player who might be more of a sure thing. There are a lot of good wing players out there, so unless a SG or SF is a likely all-star, it’s hard to take one at #1 or even ahead of a unique player like Hasheem Thabeet. Because there are no can’t-miss players here, the top group will be considered solid players.
The analysis is quick and dirty, if there are no comments, it means I have nothing interesting enough to say other than my opinion is that this player fits right about where he is. This list is as of 2/28/09 and is based mostly on a players’ current statistics. This list should be considered nothing more than a snapshot of a fluid situation. This list will certainly change before all the analysis is finished.
The top group
- Blake Griffin, PF Oklahoma: Looks good and is on track to become the top pick unless Ricky Rubio declares this year or someone like Evans really wows scouts in workouts. The reason I’m a little wary about this guy is players like Griffin whose strengths are solely scoring and rebounding have often had disappointing careers, no matter how impressive their college numbers were.
- Tyreke Evans, G Memphis: A dominant player if he can improve his scoring efficiency. The reason I think he will is because he has that scorer’s mentality in addition to being an otherwise terrific all-around player. Players tend to become more efficient scorers as they age and a great athlete like Evans can be expected to do just that.
- Nick Calathes, PG-SF Florida: His numbers are just too good to ignore. I’m a little bothered about the fact that he plays for a team that’s currently a bubble team in a weak conference.
- Ty Lawson, PG North Carolina: Lawson is the only pure PG in the draft who can be considered a good prospect at this point. Any time a PG can score often and efficiently with a pass-first mentality and decent defensive numbers like Lawson has done for three seasons now is a player to watch.
- James Harden, SG Arizona State: I pondered moving him down to the lower group, because he didn’t exactly light it up in February and is no longer the top SG statwise in the country. But he has had a solid year and 3 months before this mini-slump, so I’ll consider it an aberration for now.
- Dejuan Blair, PF Pittsburgh: Made a huge statement against Thabeet. Right now I would say his floor is becoming a Millsap-type of energy player off the bench. He’s probably better than that.
The next level
- Hasheem Thabeet, C Connecticut: He’s here on potential and height, but he looks like he could become another tall bust. His rebounding, shot blocking and FG pct. numbers are solid enough and that’s comforting for any team that drafts him. My biggest concern with him is he got destroyed by Dejuan Blair recently. While Thabeet outplayed Blair in the rematch, he has struggled against some of the better front lines. I might be picking at him too much, but this doesn’t seem like a real good thing.
- Kyle Singler, SF Duke: Went through a short shooting slump early in the month, but seems to have gotten it back. He doesn’t have the stats of a Calathes, but he does so many things well that he’s easily a top 10 pick in this draft.
- Terence Williams, SF Louisville: He’s starting to score more often and more efficiently, which was his only real weakness. Players who don’t score simply don’t make it very often, so his recent surge of scoring in both quantity and quality that started in mid-January puts him near the top of this group.
- Marcus Thornton, SG LSU: Completely turned his game around to the point where every weakness is gone and every part of his game is solid. He’s led his team to a conference title and likely a high tournament seed. There’s nothing not to like here, so it’s time to start talking about Thornton as the future NBA player he appears to be.
Strong stats, but fall into the dreaded tweener category
- James Johnson, F Wake Forest: Close to being kicked up a notch, but he’s a bit small for a PF where his skills suggest he should play. Like the others in this group, I’m fairly confident he’ll find a place in the league, it’s just hard to see it being anywhere but the bench at this point.
- Stephen Curry, CG Davidson: I doubt he’s more than a reserve, but he could be a very good one in the mold of Barbosa.
- Demarre Carroll, F Missouri: He’s done it all as a senior. Like Thornton he’s at the point where he has to be taken seriously as a prospect. He’s somewhere between a SF and PF and that’s never a good place to be.
- Trevor Booker, F Clemson: Had a very good month in February and helped keep the Tigers from repeating last season’s collapse. He’s still on the small side for a PF, but he’s shown enough range in limited opportunities that he’s a promising combo.
- Jerel McNeal, G Marquette: One impressive thing about new Marquette coach Buzz Williams is how he switched the scoring load from relying too much on an inefficient scorer in James to efficient scorers McNeal and Matthews. James also became a slightly better prospect under Williams, because he flashed better pure PG skills than he had in his previous 3 seasons. This doesn’t mean Williams will have great success at Marquette. Success in college ball is much more about recruiting than coaching. If I were an Indiana fan, it would make me wonder about exactly what kind of a coach I was getting in Williams’ predecessor Tom Crean. But I digress. McNeal has been excellent on both ends of the floor and has even flashed some PG skills in his 4 seasons. He does enough things well enough that he’s a good bet to become a decent player.
Freshman and Sophomores who aren’t quite there yet
- Greg Monroe, PF-C Georgetown: Monroe has such a great upside, especially defensively, that I can’t knock him down too far for his weak board work. That’s a serious problem, but I know he’ll look better once Georgetown’s slow pace is taken into account and his rebound numbers did tick up a notch in February.
- Cole Aldrich, C Kansas: I’d like to move him into the top group, but that’s probably just because he stands above a weak group of big men.
- Austin Daye, SF Gonzaga
- Al-Farouq Aminu, PF Wake Forest: Good prospect. His efficiency numbers look worse than they are, because he launches way too many treys.
- Ed Davis, PF North Carolina: This might be a reach, but he’s an excellent rebounder and shot blocker playing low minutes. His scoring skills haven’t been great, but he hasn’t had many opportunities. He should start next year and could bust out as a star.
- Robbie Hummel, SF Purdue
- Pat Patterson, PF Kentucky: He’ll look a lot better if he can just crank some of the defensive numbers up a notch or two. He has time so he might get it done.
- Jrue Holiday, PG UCLA: Hasn’t been wildly impressive, but he’s a great athlete and coming back next year and playing PG might launch his career.
- Jeff Teague, CG Wake Forest: Needs to develop more PG skills before I’ll rate him much higher. His offense has faded as the year progressed, suggesting his fast start may have been just a hot streak.
- Evan Turner, G-F Ohio State: I suspect he’ll move up the list some as the analysis goes a little deeper. Right now it’s a little baffling to me that his numbers don’t show a better prospect, because the numbers look pretty good by themselves.
- Rick Jackson, PF Syracuse
- Damian Saunders, SF Duquesne
- Gani Lawal, PF Georgia Tech
- Willie Warren, G Oklahoma: He’s become the flavor-of-the-month in the mocks recently. He’s a good scorer, but the rest of his game needs a lot of improvement.
- Sylvan Landesberg, SG Virginia
- Jonny Flynn, PG Syracuse
- BJ Mullens, C Ohio State
- Demar DeRozan, SF USC
- Samardo Samuels, PF Louisville: Some of these players are here based on rep more than anything. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt because of their youth. Mullens, DeRozan and Samuels all fit into that group. Others are young players who it’s too early to give up on. While I don’t put the foreign players into the mix until later, I will add that an early look at Brandon Jennings’ stats would place him somewhere around 30 on this list.
These players can’t be dismissed, but they really don’t measure up.
- Tyler Smith, SF Tennessee: Smith just hasn’t gotten it done this season as the top scorer. He seems capable of coming back next year, but he’s definitely hurt his stock.
- Danny Green, SG North Carolina: Has the size and he’s been a great shooter and defender. He has one of those stat problems though in that his pace-adjusted points per 40 minutes is under 20, and that has always been difficult for SGs to overcome no matter what their circumstance.
- Lee Cummard, SF-SG BYU: Numbers that would put other players in the top 5. His issue is he’ll be 24 in a few weeks and has very little upside. Definitely a sleeper though.
- John Bryant, C Santa Clara: He has all the numbers, but he’s heavy and on the short side. He should be able to help some team inside.
- Aaron Jackson, PG Duquesne: I like him better than any pure PG other than Lawson. I’m still a little wary of players who suddenly emerge as seniors, so he merits more research. His numbers and size are terrific though.
- Jarvis Varnado, PF Mississippi State: A great shot-blocker and those guys usually are valued pretty high.
- Earl Clark, SF Louisville: Hasn’t stepped up his scoring the way teammate Williams has, but he’s still a pretty good all-around player with great size so he’s worth watching.
- Jordan Hill, PF Arizona: Doesn’t grade out too well in my rankings. I know he’s been consistently in the top 5 in most mocks, but I suspect that’s because it’s such a weak year for big players and without too much analysis he seems like the next best option to the likes of Griffin and Thabeet. He’s probably a better prospect than some of the younger big guys and should rank higher, but because I give the freshmen and sophs some benefit of the doubt on this list players like Hill get downgraded a little too much. But it’s not like Hill is really going to be a top 10 pick, let alone an impact player.
- Damian James, SF Texas
- Gerald Henderson, SG Duke
- Wayne Ellington, SG North Carolina
- Wesley Matthews, SG Marquette: Matthews, Ellington and Henderson and are all typical SGs who don’t really stand out. Any one of them could surprise me and become a decent player.
- Eric Maynor, PG Virginia Commonwealth: He seemed to start out the season more focused on scoring, but has gotten back to being more of a pure PG. That’s a good thing for him, but he’s still not much more than a backup.
- Darren Collison, PG UCLA: Had some promise earlier in his career, but his defensive numbers remain too weak for him to be considered anything more than a backup.
- Ahmad Nivins, PF St. Joseph’s
- Michael Washington, PF Arkansas
- Jerome Jordan, C Tulsa: Looks like he can become a decent backup. His name even sounds like that of a backup center.
- Tyrese Rice, PG Boston College
- Chase Budinger, SF Arizona: Hasn’t developed as well as I thought he might. He’s a talented player, but there are so many wing players who have passed him in the last couple of seasons that he gets shoved down here to the lower reaches of the draft.
- Luke Harangody, PF Notre Dame: His FG pct. is way too low for an inside prospect, but he’s such a strong rebounder and has a decent outside shot, so I suspect he’ll find a place.
- Curtis Jerrells, PG Baylor
- Paul Delaney, CG UAB: Jerrells and Delaney are a couple of players who impress me, but their stats don’t justify raking them too high. Perhaps when I crunch some numbers I can make them look better, but right now.
- Luke Nevill, C Utah
- Jodie Meeks, SG Kentucky: Great scorer and he would be a POY candidate if his team was a little better. He ranks so low, because the non-scoring part of his game is just plain bad. He can’t pass or defend and that makes it difficult to rate him as too serious a prospect.
- Wayne Chism, PF Tennessee
- Devan Downey, G South Carolina: There are a bunch of smallish guards out there who can really light it up, including Patrick Mills, Jack McClinton, Toney Douglas, David Holston, Ben Woodside and Lester Hudson. I like Downey the best of this bunch, but they’re all pretty close. None are on the level of Curry, McNeal or Teague as players, but all are good enough that they might find a place.