1. Limping to the Finish: About one month ago we had an interesting season going on. The Magic, Celts, and Cavs were locked in a three-way battle for top seed. At the bottom of the conference, the eight-seed had a logjam of potential teams vying for the slot. Out West, the Lakers were pretty much in hand and the Dallas-Phoenix race for the eight seed also looked interesting. At this point, with a few weeks left in the season, there aren’t a whole lot of reasons to watch the homestretch of the season. Here’s a look at what’s left to actually watch:
-Boston v. Orlando: The Celts and Magic are in a virtual dead heat for the two-seed with the Magic holding a game in the loss (55-18) and the Celts having one more win (56-19). In terms of advantages, Boston has a very easy stretch schedule. Boston’s final games have a few potentially tough games, notably at Cleveland and games against Atlanta, Miami, and at Philadelphia. Most likely, only the Miami and Philadelphia games will matter to the opposition (as they vie for the five-seed). The Magic have a three-game gauntlet in early April, starting with Cleveland and then at Atlanta and Houston. The Magic’s Cleveland game is a little more problematic because it comes earlier than Boston’s Cleveland match up. The Houston game should also be the toughest opponent of any between, as they need to win to stay near the top of the Western bracket. Having determined that the Celts have an easier schedule going forward, I still like the Magic to take the two-seed. Boston has been playing surprisingly well without Kevin Garnett but I don’t know if they can keep it up. Sure, they’ll do well but the Magic are playing exceptionally well and have not lost their best player. In either event, Boston-Orlando will be a hell of a second round match up in May.
–West’s 2-7: The most fluid situation really comes out West where Houston, San Antonio, Denver, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are all separated by only one or two games. The Spurs are slightly ahead of the pack (one less loss) but a hot or cold streak could really find these teams anywhere in the seeding process and it’s tough to really predict how this will turn out. This race is exactly where NBA fans should be paying attention for the rest of the season. Here are the direct match up games that really matter:
3/31/09: Utah at Portland
4/2/09: Utah at Denver
4/5/09: Utah at New Orleans
Portland at Houston
4/8/09: Portland at San Antonio
4/10/09: Utah at San Antonio
4/13/09: New Orleans at Houston
4/15/09: New Orleans at San Antonio
Denver at Portland
Portland and Utah have the most common games against fellow 2-7 seeds. What is troublesome for Utah is that all four of Utah’s key games are on the road, where Utah is 14-21, by far the worst of any playoff team. San Antonio, on the other hand, has all its key games at home. Ironically, the Spurs are probably the least road wary team, as they are second best in the conference (22-14) on the road. Denver, Houston, and New Orleans are all respectable on the road too (Portland is a bit weaker on the road at 16-20). Given their problems with road teams, Utah is probably in a very bad situation coming into the playoffs. Nor do any of the teams seem to particularly dominate the others. San Antonio is 2-0 against the Jazz and the Jazz are 2-0 against the Hornets. Otherwise, everyone else has been relatively competitive. Both John Hollinger and Basketball-Reference.com have weighed in on projecting this last few weeks but the sample is just to small to really predict how this will turn out.
Finally, it should be noted that in addition to the home-road weaknesses of the Jazz and Portland, all six teams are pretty close in point differential, with only New Orleans clearly below the other five teams.
2. Most Decisive Eight Seeds: Watching Chicago and Dallas pull away from the also-rans so easily made me wonder exactly how rare it is for the bottom playoff spot to be easily won. The Bulls are up two games and the Mavs are not 3.5 games up on Phoenix. My recollection is that the eight seed usually comes down to the last few games but let’s take a look and see what the data really shows:
2007-08: Hawks by 1 game
Nuggets by 2 games
2006-07: Magic by 5 games
Lakers by 2 games
2005-06: Bucks by 2 games
Nuggets by 3 games
2004-05: Nets by 0 games (beat Cavs in a tie-breaker)
Grizz by 1 game
2003-04: Celts by 1 game
Nuggets by 1 game
2002-03: Magic by 5 games
Suns by 1 game
2001-02: Raptors by 1 game
Jazz by 5 games
2000-01: Pacers by 5 games
Wolves by 2 games
1999-00: Bucks by 1 game
Kings by 4 games
1998-99: Knicks by 1 game
Wolves by 0 games (beat Sonics in a tie-breaker)
1997-98: Nets by 1 game
Rockets by 14 games
1996-97: Bullets by 2 games
Clippers by 2 games
1995-96: Heat by 1 game
Kings by 3 games
1994-95: Celtics by 1 game
Nuggets by 2 games
1993-94: Heat by 1 game
Nuggets by 9 games
1992-93: Pacers by 0 games (beat Magic in a tie-breaker)
Lakers by 3 games
1991-92: Heat by 0 games (beat Hawks in a tie-breaker)
Lakers by 1 game
1990-91: Knicks by 6 games
Sonics by 10 games
1989-90: Pacers by 1 game
Rockets by 4 games
1988-89: Celtics by 2 games
Blazers by 1 game
1987-88: Bullets by 2 games
Spurs by 3 games
1986-87: Bulls by 9 games
Nuggets by 1 game
1985-86: Bulls by 1 game
Spurs by 3 games
1984-85: Cavs by 2 games
Suns by 5 games
1983-84: Bullets by 7 games
Kings by 1 game
As we suspected, the eight seed is usually pretty tight. There are a couple of weird outliers, notably the Rockets winning the eight seed by 14 games in 1997-98. The Rockets winning was a tribute to how crappy the bottom of the conference was. They had five teams with 20 wins or under, including the intentionally pathetic Nuggets (11-71). It’s safe to say that any time a team wins the eight seed by more than four or five games, the bottom of the conference failed to compete at levels we expect from NBA teams.