The playoffs are here again, and it’s time to examine some of the key questions that stand out—FAQ style….
Yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder are favorites, but are they prohibitive favorites?
OKC lapped the field again, going 64–18 despite some key injuries and a general sense that they eased up after their amazing start. Their 2024–25 squad had the best SRS ever. This team ranks “only” sixth best in NBA history. For a little context, here are the top ten SRS teams and how they fared in the playoffs:
- 2024–25 Thunder, 12.7 SRS, 68–14 (won title)
- 1970–71 Bucks, 11.92 SRS, 66–16 (won title)
- 1995–96 Bulls, 11.80 SRS, 72–10 (won title)
- 1971–72 Lakers, 11.65 SRS, 69–13 (won title)
- 2016–17 Warriors, 11.35 SRS, 67–15 (won title)
- 2025–26 Thunder, 11.04 SRS, 64–18 (TBD)
- 2023–24 Celtics, 10.75 SRS, 64–18 (won title)
- 1971–72 Bucks, 10.70 SRS, 63–19 (lost in WCF to the Lakers)
1996–97 Bulls, 10.70 SRS, 69–13 (won title) - 2015–16 Warriors, 10.38 SRS, 73–9 (lost in NBA Finals)
Barring injury or some unusual occurrence, teams in this range usually win the title.
How could OKC actually lose?
Outside of injuries, the only team to give OKC problems was San Antonio, which went 4–1 against the Thunder. In fact, the Spurs were the only team with a winning record against OKC this season. Since OKC became a contender in 2023–24, here are the teams with winning records against them:
2023–24: Pacers 2–0
2023–24: Lakers 3–1
2023–24: 76ers 2–0
2024–25: Mavericks 3–1
2024–25: Warriors 2–1
2025–26: Spurs 4–1
The Spurs stand out as a major challenge. Assuming they get past Denver, Victor Wembanyama presents a unique problem for OKC’s rim pressure.
Of course, the 4–1 record comes with a few caveats:
- The last OKC loss came without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- SGA played below his regular season averages against San Antonio but was still effective:
PTS FG% 3P% TS% REB AST TOV STL BPM PER
Season 31.1 55.3% 38.6% 64.0% 4.3 6.6 2.2 1.4 9.8 30.5
v SA 29.5 50.6% 19.0% 58.9% 4.5 5.5 2.3 0.3 9.5 26.8
Diff -1.6 -4.7% -19.6% -5.1% +0.2 -1.1 +0.1 -1.1 -0.3 -3.7
The odd part is that you’d expect the drop to come at the rim against Wembanyama. Instead, SGA actually shot slightly better inside; the real issue was from deep (4–21 from three across those games). That could be small-sample noise, but he struggled from distance in all four.
- Wembanyama had only six blocks in five games against OKC, despite leading the NBA with 3.1 BPG.
- He also played fewer minutes against OKC (22 MPG vs. 29 overall). That could change in a playoff setting.
- Head-to-head, the teams were fairly even statistically, but San Antonio shot better from three (36% vs. 33%) and rebounded better offensively (+2.4 ORPG).
The Thunder have few weaknesses, but bigger teams have given them some trouble. Wembanyama and company might be able to exploit that.
Does the Spurs’ 4–1 record have a historical analog?
Looking at teams since 1979–80 that won at least 64 games and then faced a team that beat them in the regular season:
- 2006–07 Mavericks: 67–15, went 0–3 vs. Warriors → lost 4–2 in playoffs
- 2008–09 Cavaliers: 66–16, went 1–2 vs. Magic → lost 4–2
- 2008–09 Lakers: 65–17, went 0–2 vs. Magic → won 4–1 in Finals
- 2012–13 Heat: 66–16, went 1–2 vs. Pacers → won in 7
- 2016–17 Warriors: 67–15, went 1–2 vs. Spurs → swept (Kawhi injury caveat)
- 2024–25 Cavaliers: went 1–3 vs. Pacers → lost 4–1
Out of 24 teams that won 64+ games in the three-point era, only six faced such a matchup—and they split those series 3–3 (with the Kawhi injury as a caveat). So San Antonio’s success is a real, if limited, warning sign.
Are the Spurs too green to make a run?
The old adage is that you have to learn to lose before you learn to win. San Antonio still must get through Denver or Minnesota before even reaching OKC. Coach Mitch Johnson and most of the core haven’t won a playoff series. Only Luke Kornet and Harrison Barnes have—and Barnes hasn’t since 2016.
Still, this is Wembanyama’s team. He’s already a top-five player in the league. Historically, elite centers tend to be great immediately in the playoffs, from Bill Russell to Nikola Jokić. There’s little reason to expect otherwise here.
Can a non-OKC or San Antonio team win the title?
Yes. Boston, Denver, and Detroit are plausible, but each has flaws. Boston is probably the strongest of the group, though there’s some concern about Jayson Tatum holding up over a deep run—not due to a major injury, but potential fatigue after a shortened season.
Predictions
Eastern Conference
First Round
- Pistons over Magic, 4–1
- Celtics over 76ers, 4–1
- Knicks over Hawks, 4–3
- Cavs over Raptors, 4–1
Second Round
- Pistons over Cavs, 4–3
- Celtics over Knicks, 4–1
Conference Finals
- Celtics over Pistons, 4–2
Western Conference
First Round
- Thunder over Suns, 4–0
- Spurs over Blazers, 4–1
- Nuggets over Wolves, 4–3
- Rockets over Lakers, 4–2
Second Round
- Thunder over Rockets, 4–1
- Spurs over Nuggets, 4–2
Conference Finals
- Thunder over Spurs, 4–2
Finals
- Thunder over Celtics, 4–2