This is a very strong group. The strongest in the draft and it might rival the SFs of ’03 and ’07 as strongest group in any draft class I’ve seen. Beasley and Love are at the top. I really can’t decide who should go on top either. Love does have better numbers and improved during the season. Beasley had to carry an otherwise weak team. Both are terrific offensively and raise doubts defensively. If I were a GM, I’d be happy with either one, but if forced to choose I’d give Beasley the slightest edge. Beasley looks more able to slide to SF than Love would to center. Beasley seems to have more potential to dominate, while Love seems to have more potential to be dominated. But they’re very close and any team lucky enough to land either one should feel fortunate. There are several other PFs capable of making an impact.The stats I look at for PFs are a 2 point FG pct. of at least .550, P40 of 20.0, R40 of 10.0 and SB40 of 3.0. As always, freshmen and sophs are given some benefit of the doubt on numbers that aren’t quite there.
|
Player |
fgpct | 2 pct | P40 | R40 | A40 | S40 | B40 | TO40 | A/TO | pps | SB40 |
| Hendrix, Richard |
0.598 |
0.604 |
22.72 |
12.92 |
2.04 |
1.64 |
2.52 |
2.20 |
0.93 |
1.48 |
4.16 |
| Beasley, Michael |
0.532 |
0.562 |
31.28 |
14.74 |
1.37 |
1.52 |
1.95 |
3.43 |
0.40 |
1.50 |
3.47 |
| Love, Kevin |
0.559 |
0.611 |
23.80 |
14.50 |
2.62 |
0.94 |
1.96 |
2.73 |
0.96 |
1.68 |
2.90 |
| Speights, M |
0.624 |
0.624 |
24.13 |
13.41 |
1.57 |
0.69 |
2.26 |
2.87 |
0.55 |
1.51 |
2.96 |
| Dunston, Bryant |
0.525 |
0.561 |
19.11 |
12.06 |
2.42 |
1.23 |
3.35 |
2.34 |
1.04 |
1.43 |
4.59 |
| White, DJ |
0.605 |
0.607 |
20.61 |
12.22 |
0.90 |
0.93 |
1.94 |
2.26 |
0.40 |
1.61 |
2.87 |
| Dorsey, Joey |
0.647 |
0.651 |
10.35 |
14.36 |
0.79 |
1.63 |
2.94 |
1.63 |
0.49 |
1.56 |
4.56 |
| Hickson, JJ |
0.591 |
0.593 |
20.79 |
11.89 |
1.41 |
1.00 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
0.37 |
1.66 |
3.13 |
| Williams, Leon |
0.614 |
0.613 |
21.92 |
13.14 |
1.66 |
1.90 |
0.93 |
3.23 |
0.51 |
1.85 |
2.83 |
| Arthur, Darrell |
0.543 |
0.555 |
20.42 |
10.01 |
1.32 |
0.80 |
2.12 |
3.00 |
0.44 |
1.29 |
2.92 |
| Jackson, Darnell |
0.626 |
0.633 |
18.23 |
10.89 |
1.75 |
1.26 |
0.77 |
2.08 |
0.84 |
1.64 |
2.04 |
| Rhodes, Charles |
0.562 |
0.563 |
21.61 |
9.72 |
1.16 |
0.64 |
1.69 |
2.97 |
0.39 |
1.41 |
2.33 |
| Curtis, Dwayne |
0.633 |
0.633 |
18.63 |
12.01 |
1.25 |
1.00 |
0.36 |
2.07 |
0.60 |
1.56 |
1.35 |
| Randolph, A |
0.464 |
0.483 |
19.40 |
10.56 |
1.53 |
1.41 |
2.81 |
3.69 |
0.41 |
1.23 |
4.22 |
Here are how these players stand up against prospects of the past. As I mentioned in other draft articles, I wouldn’t read too much into any of this. Just some interesting data.
| NCAA Freshman PFs | 2 pt. pct. | Points40 | Reb40 | SB40 | A/TO | PPS |
| Kevin Love |
.604 |
23.8 |
14.5 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
1.68 |
| Michael Beasley |
.562 |
31.3 |
14.7 |
3.5 |
0.4 |
1.50 |
| All-star level |
.580 |
19.6 |
12.5 |
3.7 |
0.5 |
1.45 |
| JJ Hickson |
.593 |
20.8 |
12.2 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
1.66 |
| Rotation Regular |
.526 |
18.2 |
11.1 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
1.37 |
| Anthony Randolph |
.483 |
19.4 |
10.6 |
4.2 |
0.4 |
1.23 |
| Journeyman |
.498 |
18.8 |
10.5 |
2.8 |
0.4 |
1.29 |
| Never made it |
.532 |
15.3 |
9.8 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
1.37 |
| NCAA Sophomore PFs | 2 pt. pct. | Points40 | Reb40 | SB40 | A/TO | PPS |
| All-star level |
.568 |
20.8 |
12.7 |
4.4 |
0.6 |
1.38 |
| Marreese Speights |
.624 |
24.1 |
13.4 |
3.0 |
0.6 |
1.51 |
| Rotation Regular |
.552 |
19.8 |
11.2 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
1.46 |
| Darrell Arthur |
.555 |
20.4 |
10.0 |
2.9 |
0.4 |
1.29 |
| Journeyman |
.526 |
18.5 |
10.1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.37 |
| Never made it |
.548 |
17.1 |
9.9 |
2.7 |
0.6 |
1.41 |
| NCAA Junior PFs | 2 pt.pct. | Points40 | Reb40 | SB40 | A/TO | PPS |
| All-star level |
.599 |
23.2 |
12.6 |
4.3 |
0.6 |
1.53 |
| Richard Hendrix |
.604 |
22.7 |
12.9 |
4.2 |
0.9 |
1.48 |
| Rotation Regular |
.558 |
21.2 |
11.2 |
3.4 |
0.7 |
1.45 |
| Journeyman |
.540 |
19.9 |
10.5 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
1.42 |
| Never made it |
.543 |
18.1 |
10.4 |
2.6 |
0.7 |
1.42 |
| NCAA Senior PFs | 2 pt. pct. | Points40 | Reb40 | SB40 | A/TO | PPS |
| All-star level |
.563 |
23.2 |
12.6 |
4.3 |
0.6 |
1.53 |
| Joey Dorsey |
.651 |
10.4 |
14.4 |
4.6 |
0.5 |
1.56 |
| Rotation Regular |
.542 |
20.5 |
11.2 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
1.45 |
| Bryant Dunston |
.561 |
19.1 |
12.1 |
4.6 |
1.0 |
1.43 |
| DJ White |
.607 |
20.6 |
12.2 |
2.9 |
0.4 |
1.61 |
| Journeyman |
.529 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
1.41 |
| Darnell Jackson |
.633 |
18.2 |
10.9 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
1.64 |
| Dwayne Curtis |
.633 |
18.6 |
12.0 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.56 |
| Charles Rhodes |
.563 |
21.6 |
9.7 |
2.3 |
0.4 |
1.41 |
| Never made it |
.528 |
18.5 |
10.5 |
2.6 |
0.7 |
1.38 |
Next are subjective rankings based on which player I’d take all other things being equal.
1. Michael Beasley, Kansas State: So how good a prospect is Michael Beasley? A year after Kevin Durant put in the best season ever by a freshman SF, Beasley may have done the same as a PF. While Beasley is somewhat similar to Durant, they’re also a little different. Beasley dominates in points and rebounds, but is a little weak in other statistics. Durant was more of an all-around player, especially on defense. Both are great scorers both inside and out. Because of this, I wanted to compare Beasley to other great scorer/rebounders. Here’s a list of major college forwards who have exceeded 40 combined points and rebounds per 40 minutes. Since Beasley, along with Wayman Tisdale in 1983, was one of only 2 freshmen to accomplish this feat I decided to list players of all grade levels. I included Tisdale’s freshman year just for reference. I didn’t include any other seasons from players coached by Billy Tubbs or Paul Westhead. The reason is both played offense at an outrageously fast pace. I don’t have the resources to adjust the numbers and I don’t trust that they give a realistic reflection of the players’ ability. So with apologies to Kurt Thomas, Bo Kimble and Lee Nailon, here’s the list:
| Player |
Year |
2 pt. Pct. |
3 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Glenn Robinson |
2 |
.587 |
.380 |
35.6 |
11.9 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
| Xavier McDaniel |
4 |
.559 |
N/A |
29.5 |
16.1 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
| Larry Johnson |
3 |
.698 |
.354 |
28.6 |
13.7 |
1.3 |
4.0 |
| Drew Gooden |
3 |
.523 |
.235 |
26.4 |
15.2 |
0.7 |
4.2 |
| Raef LaFrentz |
4 |
.552 |
.471 |
26.2 |
15.1 |
0.4 |
3.2 |
| Mike Sweetney |
3 |
.550 |
.000 |
28.2 |
12.8 |
0.9 |
5.8 |
| Gerald Glass |
3 |
.565 |
.376 |
31.4 |
9.5 |
0.7 |
4.4 |
| Lionel Simmons |
3 |
.497 |
.375 |
29.2 |
11.7 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
| Danny Fortson |
3 |
.621 |
.000 |
28.5 |
12.1 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
| Derrick Chievious |
4 |
.507 |
.515 |
29.7 |
10.9 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
| Adam Keefe |
4 |
.553 |
.455 |
27.2 |
13.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
| Armon Gilliam |
3 |
.600 |
N/A |
28.7 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
| Keith Van Horn |
4 |
.537 |
.387 |
28.0 |
12.0 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
| Nick Fazekas |
4 |
.591 |
.431 |
26.9 |
14.6 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
| Wayman Tisdale |
1 |
.580 |
N/A |
28.5 |
12.0 |
0.3 |
4.0 |
| Michael Beasley |
1 |
.562 |
.379 |
31.3 |
14.7 |
0.4 |
3.5 |
A couple things I want to point out before I get into it too much. Robinson was actually a junior for this season, but it was his 2nd season. So I’m basically comparing Beasley with juniors and seniors here. The most striking thing about this group is how unimpressive it is. I mean there are some players here who made all-star teams, but most were either disappointments on some level or outright busts. I think the reason for this is many of these players were a little overrated to begin with because of their high P40. Scoring points is very important, but historically for guards and forwards it has been much more important to just reach 20.0 P40 as opposed to scoring the most points. With assists, rebounds, steals and blocks the case has been that the more a player gets the better. The best pros here were McDaniel, Johnson and Robinson. Johnson looked like the most complete player at the time.
The concern for Beasley would be his relatively weak defensive numbers. His 3.5 SB40 is on the low side, but hardly the red flag the low numbers for Fortson, Keefe and Van Horn’s were regarding their defensive abilities. With his athleticism and long arms, he would seem to have what it takes to become a pretty decent defender. At the very least, I doubt he’ll be a poor defender. The A/TO is also low, but that’s something that almost always works itself out when we’re talking about freshmen. As far as what’s to like here, I could go on forever. Beasley obviously knows how to put the ball in the basket from inside and out. He’s likely to be a mainstay in the top 10 scorers once he’s acclimated himself to the league, a process that shouldn’t take more than a year or two. As a rebounder, he clearly has shown perennial top ten ability also. He looks like he’s versatile enough to play SF and excel there should the situation require him to do so. I feel safe in saying he’s going to be an all-star. Whether he becomes a little lazy as he ages and is an all-star on the level of Glenn Robinson or he lives up to his potential and becomes another Karl Malone remains to be seen. But it’s best to draft a player with an eye on his ceiling and that makes Beasley the top player here.
2. Kevin Love, UCLA: A truly great freshman year. I think that because of the greatness of the last 2 freshman classes we’ve become a little immune to exactly what we’ve been watching the past couple of years. The new era of one-and-dones started with a bang as we got Oden and Durant followed quickly by Beasley, Rose and Love. That’s quite a two-year run of players who are potential stars. To show where Love rates with the best freshmen PFs ever, I included him in a list of players who were the best PFs of recent years and some others who checked in with impact freshman seasons:
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Chris Webber |
.601 |
19.5 |
12.5 |
0.8 |
5.1 |
| Elton Brand |
.592 |
22.8 |
12.5 |
0.3 |
4.8 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
.607 |
18.2 |
12.7 |
0.4 |
4.8 |
| Chris Bosh |
.576 |
20.3 |
11.6 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
| Antonio McDyess |
.564 |
19.2 |
13.6 |
0.2 |
4.4 |
| Antawn Jamison |
.624 |
18.4 |
11.8 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
| Zach Randolph |
.590 |
21.8 |
13.5 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
| Antoine Walker |
.493 |
22.5 |
12.4 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
| Joe Smith |
.523 |
23.6 |
13.0 |
0.4 |
5.6 |
| Troy Murphy |
.547 |
23.3 |
12.0 |
0.5 |
3.3 |
| Danny Fortson |
.537 |
25.8 |
13.0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| Ike Diogu |
.634 |
23.9 |
9.7 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| Eddie Griffin |
.469 |
21.8 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
| Kevin Love |
.611 |
23.8 |
14.5 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
There are a few things that separate the good from the great here. Eddie Griffin was always an inconsistent shooter and Ike Diogu a substandard rebounder. The big category seems to be SB40 though. The level to be at seems to be at least 4.0. Players above 4.0 who did the scoring and rebounding well were all good to great players. Players who didn’t top 4.0 tended to struggle. There are some exceptions, but that’s the general rule. This is bad for Love, who checks in at 2.9. Other than the 2.9, Love might be the most impressive player on the board. But Love’s defense may actually be better than advertised. Here’s a breakdown of how he improved as the season progressed:
| Kevin Love |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
| Nov-Dec |
.612 |
24.1 |
14.9 |
1.7 |
| January |
.682 |
24.7 |
16.7 |
2.1 |
| February |
.576 |
22.4 |
14.6 |
3.6 |
| March |
.583 |
23.5 |
12.3 |
4.3 |
Whenever a player improves his game to make himself a better prospect during his college career, it’s usually a good sign. It reveals Love as a player who knows where he has to be as a prospect and then does the work to get there. By March, playing against tournament competition, Kevin Love became a strong defender, while keeping all his offensive numbers solid. Defensively he’ll never be a Garnett or Duncan. But his late run shows he can be a decent defender whose presence on the court won’t kill the team. He’ll never be the quickest guy on the court or the highest leaper. He’s smart though and players who can position themselves well and work at it can be effective defenders. Love is the type who should be able to get the job done. Even if Love is a substandard defender, his offense is so strong and efficient that he’ll still be a valuable player. I put him up there with Beasley and Rose as a player who is likely to have a big impact in the NBA and has a good chance to become a star.
3. Marreese Speights, Florida: Great numbers in P40 and R40, along with a FG pct. well over .600 for consecutive seasons should make Speights a hot item. Not too many players have topped 24 P40, 13 R40 and .600 2 pt. pct. as sophomores:
| Player |
2 pt. pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| David Robinson |
.644 |
28.1 |
13.8 |
0.3 |
5.8 |
| Larry Johnson |
.648 |
26.1 |
14.5 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
| Shaquille O’Neal |
.628 |
35.1 |
18.7 |
0.5 |
8.2 |
| Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
4.7 |
| Todd MacCulloch |
.676 |
25.9 |
13.3 |
0.3 |
2.7 |
| Marresse Speights |
.624 |
24.1 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
I didn’t include Wayne Simien, who also made all the levels as a soph. He did it in only 16 games and 390 minutes, after injuring his shoulder early in the conference schedule. Because non-conference schedules often produce big numbers for both PFs and centers, I felt his feat didn’t belong with this group. Speights is in some seriously fast company here. Every player is at least a 2-time all-star, except for MacCulloch who may have become one had his career not ended prematurely due to injury. Quick tangent, did you know that MacCulloch was the world’s 208th ranked pinballer? Back to Speights, this table suggests he’s a potential all-star, but he’s hovering around the 15-25 range in the mocks. I think he’ll go higher, but the fact that he hasn’t caught fire as a prospect isn’t a good sign.
The most troubling thing about Speights is that, despite his production, he doesn’t play big minutes. He averaged 24.3 minutes per game, which is low for a player who’s as productive as he was. His fouls are high, but not so high that his minutes would be affected this much. I read some chatter on a Gator blog that he’s not in the best of shape and his game suffers when he’s winded. Donovan is one of the smarter coaches in the country and I doubt he’d bench his most productive player if it didn’t benefit the team. There’s no relationship to Speights getting more minutes and the Gators having more success either, which would seem to backup the decision to limit his minutes.
The numbers are historically good, but warning signs abound here. If Speights rode the bench more than he should have been because he wasn’t in tip-top condition, which seems like the most logical reason, that’s something that can be corrected with a better diet, some wind sprints and weightlifting. Whether Speights gets up and does the necessary work is another issue. But considering that this was his first season in the Gator rotation, I can excuse him for not being as ready as he should have been. Since Speights posted such great numbers and clearly has the potential to be an all-star, it’s an easy choice to put him next in line behind Beasley and Love. There are warning signs, but better to draft on upside and be disappointed than be safe and get a player similar to one that could be had for the minimum.
4. JJ Hickson, North Carolina State: Timing can mean everything for a prospect. Had Hickson entered the draft against a class of PFs like the 2005 group, he likely would have emerged as the top player and been drafted in the top 10. This year he’s up against two historically great rookie PFs and an overall deep group and seems to be struggling to stay in the first round. But Hickson can play. Using the same group I compared with Love, here’s how well Hickson stacks up against the best freshmen PFs of recent years.
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Chris Webber |
.601 |
19.5 |
12.5 |
0.8 |
5.1 |
| Elton Brand |
.592 |
22.8 |
12.5 |
0.3 |
4.8 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
.607 |
18.2 |
12.7 |
0.4 |
4.8 |
| Chris Bosh |
.576 |
20.3 |
11.6 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
| Antonio McDyess |
.564 |
19.2 |
13.6 |
0.2 |
4.4 |
| Antawn Jamison |
.624 |
18.4 |
11.8 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
| Zach Randolph |
.590 |
21.8 |
13.5 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
| Antoine Walker |
.493 |
22.5 |
12.4 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
| Joe Smith |
.523 |
23.6 |
13.0 |
0.4 |
5.6 |
| Troy Murphy |
.547 |
23.3 |
12.0 |
0.5 |
3.3 |
| Danny Fortson |
.537 |
25.8 |
13.0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| Ike Diogu |
.634 |
23.9 |
9.7 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| Eddie Griffin |
.469 |
21.8 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
| JJ Hickson |
.593 |
20.8 |
11.9 |
0.4 |
3.1 |
Hickson does hold his own here, but he’s a little on the lower end in most categories. The one that’s the most worrisome would be the 3.1 SB40. Players under 4.0 definitely had more struggles. Of the players on this list who were under 4.0, only Jamison and Walker reached all-star level. Unlike with Love, I can’t show where Hickson improved his defensive numbers over the course of the season, because he didn’t. If anything they waned against the tougher competition. If we look at the positives, Hickson is a player with good size who can score inside and rebound well enough to make a positive impact in the NBA. Those are the two most important skills for a PF prospect to have. He’s only 19, so the upside is there. As I mentioned with Love, defense is something that can be learned and developed. Hickson is s good athlete, so this is something that’s doable. Hickson should become a good pro. He may fall a little short of all-star level, but he almost certainly will become a useful player and will be a bargain for where he’s drafted if rumors are correct.
5. Richard Hendrix, Alabama: On some levels I understand why numbers are generally ignored for athleticism when grading prospects. Some players make better pros than players who were superior to them in college. Things like height, wingspan, quickness and vertical leap are all much more important on the pro than college level. That being acknowledged, sometimes the numbers are too good to ignore and Hendrix is one of those cases. As the table above shows, he meets or surpasses every number a PF has historically hit to succeed. Not too many PFs have been over .600 in 2 pt. FG pct., 22 P40, 12.5 R40 and 4 SB40 in the same season. Here’s the list:
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Chris Webber |
.679 |
24.2 |
12.7 |
0.9 |
4.9 |
| Chris Gatling |
.621 |
26.9 |
14.2 |
0.3 |
5.9 |
| Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
4.7 |
| Stanley Brundy |
.649 |
24.4 |
12.8 |
0.6 |
4.3 |
| Oliver Miller |
.707 |
25.6 |
12.6 |
0.9 |
7.2 |
| Richard Hendrix |
.604 |
22.7 |
12.9 |
0.9 |
4.2 |
I limit these things to player with over 500 minutes, so Loren Meyer didn’t quite make the list. Miller is more of a center than a PF, but I decided to include him just to add some perspective and because he probably played some PF in his career. I didn’t include Shaq and David Robinson in the group, because they’re both pure centers and I just didn’t see the point. Stanley Brundy was a 6’6” 210 lb. PF from DePaul who was drafted by New Jersey and suspended his first season for violating the drug policy. He left the league after his rookie year and played for many years in Europe. It’s an impressive group, but hardly makes Hendrix a lock for stardom. Brand and Webber were both sophs when they accomplished this feat and none of the others had a great career, though Gatling made an all-star team and Miller was a very efficient player. I can say that Hendrix compares favorably to successful PFs in their junior season.
One more thing I’d like to do with Hendrix is compare his freshman season to the seasons of this years’ stellar PF crop. If I’m ranking him ahead of the likes of Randolph he should at least have had a comparable freshman campaign.
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Freshman Richard Hendrix |
.560 |
13.9 |
11.8 |
0.5 |
3.4 |
| Kevin Love |
.611 |
23.8 |
14.5 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
| Michael Beasley |
.562 |
31.3 |
14.7 |
0.4 |
3.5 |
| JJ Hickson |
.593 |
20.8 |
11.9 |
0.4 |
3.1 |
| Blake Griffin |
.589 |
20.9 |
13.0 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
| Anthony Randolph |
.483 |
19.4 |
10.6 |
0.4 |
4.2 |
| James Johnson |
.574 |
19.6 |
10.9 |
0.5 |
3.6 |
| Pat Patterson |
.581 |
18.8 |
8.8 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
| DeJuan Blair |
.537 |
17.6 |
13.9 |
0.5 |
4.2 |
Other than the P40, Hendrix matches up well with players in this group not named Love and Beasley. He’s a little better than some and a bit worse than others. As a freshman, Hendrix joined a Crimson Tide team featured two PFs, Chuck Davis and Jermareo Davidson who were the 1st and 3rd returning scorers, top 2 returning rebounders and shot blockers. For that reason the low P40 isn’t a big deal. That Hendrix was able to earn 27 minutes per game as a freshman in a crowded frontcourt is impressive.
I like Richard Hendrix and I feel he’s a legit first round draft pick. If he lasts into round 2, he’ll become a pleasant surprise in the way Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap have. He’s in a very strong PF field and is mainly being measured against freshmen, who are generally preferred to juniors because of their upside. That hurts his stock some, as does the fact that Alabama didn’t make the tournament. But players with numbers this good who have the size to play in the league usually make it and do well. At the very least Hendrix should become a valuable reserve on the inside. But he’s probably better than that and will be a starter somewhere.
6. Serge Ibaka, CB L’Hospitalet: Good looking prospect. In his past 2 seasons he averaged over 9 boards and 3 blocks per game. He’s also looks like a decent outside shooter, hitting 30% on 20 attempts. He doesn’t look like much of a scorer though, hitting only .533 on 2 pointers. He’ll be 19 in September and a player who can rebound and block shots as well as he has at this age is a player worth a pick in the 15-25 range. At the very least he looks like a good energy player in the Varejao mold.
7. Bryant Dunston, Fordham: Other than Hendrix and the freshmen, no PF prospect has put up more impressive numbers than Bryant Dunston. The only place Dunston really falls short is scoring, hitting a slightly substandard .561 on his 2 pointers. The big numbers are he was over 12 R40 and 4 SB40. That just doesn’t happen to often and when it does, it’s often a pretty strong prospect who does it:
| Player |
2 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
4.7 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
.607 |
18.2 |
12.7 |
0.4 |
4.8 |
| Antonio McDyess |
.512 |
21.3 |
15.6 |
0.3 |
4.4 |
| Emeka Okafor |
.599 |
21.8 |
14.2 |
0.4 |
6.3 |
| Kenyon Martin |
.573 |
25.7 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
| Joe Smith |
.586 |
25.5 |
13.0 |
0.6 |
5.4 |
| Alan Henderson |
.494 |
18.1 |
13.2 |
0.6 |
4.2 |
| Drew Gooden |
.523 |
26.4 |
15.2 |
0.7 |
4.2 |
| Nick Collison |
.594 |
23.2 |
12.4 |
0.7 |
5.0 |
| Michael Ruffin |
.527 |
14.4 |
12.9 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| Eddie Griffin |
.469 |
21.8 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
| Michael Sweetney |
.550 |
28.2 |
12.8 |
0.9 |
5.8 |
| David Vaughn |
.459 |
17.3 |
12.8 |
0.4 |
4.2 |
| Ryan Humphrey |
.489 |
20.9 |
12.2 |
1.0 |
4.4 |
| Albert Burditt |
.540 |
16.6 |
15.7 |
1.1 |
6.5 |
| Glen Whisby |
.448 |
19.2 |
12.3 |
0.4 |
4.6 |
| Jaime Lloreda |
.565 |
16.9 |
12.3 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
| Tamarr Maclin |
.618 |
19.0 |
13.5 |
0.3 |
4.4 |
| Bryant Dunston |
.561 |
19.1 |
12.1 |
1.0 |
4.6 |
Griffin was a freshman at the time, Brand, Wallace, McDyess, Smith and Henderson were sophomores. The rest were juniors and seniors. Of the players who didn’t make it, they seemed to be done in by one or all of a low FG pct, P40 or A/TO. I can’t say why Michael Ruffin stuck in the league so long and Jaime Lloreda or Albert Burditt never made it. At least I couldn’t tell from the stats. Perhaps it was good timing, or maybe Ruffin’s just a much better player in ways his college stats never reflected. As for Dunston, he looks better than most of the players who fell short, but not quite on the level of the more successful players. The fact that he can score reasonably efficiently and doesn’t have a TO problem tells me he can play if he gets a chance. One more comment on Dunston is he’s 42-97 from behind the arc for his career. That includes this season when he went 5-29. So he has an outside shot to go with his already strong game. Bryant Dunston is a solid prospect. He does everything a PF prospect has historically needed to do in college and he brings a diverse game. I feel he can be an effective player in the league for a long time and I hope he gets a chance to prove it.
8. Anthony Randolph, LSU: Scoring is an important skill for any prospect. While its value can vary by position, it’s probably the most important skill to have all things considered. For PFs, scoring efficiently is probably more important than scoring often. A PF who can put up a high FG pct. from inside the arc is one who has a better chance of becoming an effective inside scorer in the NBA. Anthony Randolph was not an efficient 2-point scorer at LSU. Not even close. He hit .483 on two pointers and .105 on 19 three pointers. Not too many college stars go onto NBA greatness after hitting less than .515 on 2-point FGs. In fact, no one has. Just one player who made a few all-star teams and a few decent journeymen:
| Player |
2 pt. pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Antoine Walker |
.453 |
21.6 |
12.4 |
0.8 |
3.0 |
| Chris Wilcox |
.506 |
18.1 |
11.9 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
| Alan Henderson |
.512 |
19.6 |
12.2 |
0.5 |
4.2 |
| Juwan Howard |
.453 |
16.3 |
9.1 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
| Maurice Taylor |
.472 |
18.5 |
7.6 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
| Eddie Griffin |
.469 |
21.8 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
3.7 |
| Dickey Simpkins |
.497 |
14.4 |
12.1 |
0.7 |
3.7 |
| Michael Smith |
.498 |
15.2 |
14.6 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
| PJ Brown |
.410 |
10.5 |
12.5 |
0.9 |
4.5 |
| Anthony Randolph |
.483 |
19.4 |
10.6 |
0.4 |
4.2 |
Randolph is right now a lesser version of Alan Henderson at the same age. Freshmen PFs who can’t knock down significantly more than 50% of their 2-point shots aren’t likely to become anything more than a solid journeyman. The only all-star in the group is Walker and he was more of a perimeter PF. Now I’m not going to completely dismiss Randolph. This is a small sample and the thought that a player with Randolph’s length, athleticism and leaping ability could overcome a weak start isn’t all that farfetched.
One more thing to look at is how Randolph progressed over the course of the season. With Kevin Love I showed that he improved his defensive numbers to an all-star level by season’s end. Randolph is the ultimate upside player in this draft. Rumors have him as the guy teams are most willing to take a leap of faith on based solely on his off the charts athleticism. The case for drafting such a player would be stronger if he had improved as the season progressed. Here are Randolph’s monthly splits:
| Anthony Randolph |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Nov-Dec |
.492 |
18.7 |
10.8 |
0.6 |
6.3 |
| January |
.462 |
17.7 |
10.9 |
0.4 |
3.0 |
| February |
.475 |
18.9 |
11.2 |
0.3 |
4.1 |
| March |
.481 |
24.0 |
8.8 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
He only played 4 games in March, so it’s not advisable to get overly excited/depressed over numbers in the bottom row. What this shows is the bulk of his strong SB40 came in the early part of the year against the easier non-conference schedule. The improvement in other areas of his game during the season was minimal. Randolph is a player whose stats are pretty ordinary for a prospect and showed no noticeable improvement during the season. He also has the type of athletic ability that can make a player a superstar. I can understand a team falling for the raw talent and taking a flyer on such a player around pick #10-15. As long as they realize going in that this is a developmental pick who probably won’t make an impact until at least year 2 and probably later. What I don’t understand is why any team would take such a player ahead of one who has demonstrated he’s on a par or above the best prospects of the past.
9. Darrell Arthur, Kansas: I have doubts about Arthur. He’s been pretty well thought of since his freshman season last year when he came in with a bang, but first tailed off and then leveled off at numbers that are below-average for a prospect. He scores often enough, but his other numbers are on the shaky side. 10.0 R40 is at the absolute minimum it can be for an average prospect. A good prospect should top 11.0. The FG pct. of .555 and SB40 of 2.9 are also on the low, though grudgingly acceptable side. I suspect he’s trying to add and outside shot to his repertoire, as he’s gone 2-17 on treys in his 2 seasons as a Jayhawk. This is a good thing and might be necessary for him. Of course, he has to learn to hit at a better rate. The fact that he appears to be focused on this is a good sign for him though.
The problem with Arthur is he’s being touted as a lottery pick and there’s nothing in his game that suggests he’s even a first rounder in this loaded draft. There’s a case to be made for drafting him and it seems like a good bet that he’ll become a solid enough journeyman. If he’s drafted too early he’s going to disappoint and the team that drafted him will wish they had looked harder at Hendrix, Hickson and maybe even Dorsey.
10. Joey Dorsey, Memphis: The issue with Dorsey is he doesn’t score and doesn’t look to score. He’s the ultimate inside role player in the tradition of Ben Wallace and Bo Outlaw. Here’s a list of some players who have made at least a small impact in the league after scoring less than 15 P40 in their senior seasons:
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Jack Haley |
.467 |
9.0 |
8.2 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
| Don Reid |
.595 |
12.2 |
9.7 |
0.6 |
5.0 |
| John Thomas |
.579 |
15.2 |
10.6 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
| Ruben Garces |
.538 |
14.8 |
12.1 |
0.4 |
3.7 |
| Antonio Davis |
.524 |
13.9 |
9.8 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
| Chuck Hayes |
.522 |
14.9 |
10.6 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
| Michael Ruffin |
.527 |
14.4 |
12.9 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| Jerome Williams |
.601 |
15.0 |
12.8 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
| Joey Dorsey |
.651 |
10.4 |
14.4 |
0.5 |
4.6 |
Well, Dorsey was a superior player to Jack Haley at this point in his career. Actually, he was superior to this entire crew. His P40 is almost historically low for a serious prospect, but whether it’s 15.0 or 10.0 a player can be an effective role player without scoring much. The majority of players who post over 14.0 R40 succeed on some level. When you add a .600+ FG pct. and 4.0+ SB40 to the resume, Dorsey actually starts to look like a pretty impressive prospect.
Dorsey is 24, so that will have to be considered. The player at Memphis this year is likely the player we’ll see in the pros. He’s also foul-prone and that’s something that will likely get worse in the pros. With that in mind, don’t expect much more than a role player here. Dorsey is a pretty easy call. He’ll be a very effective part time player and can probably step right in and help a team. He won’t get big minutes, but will be consistently among the league leaders in rebounds per minutes.
11. DJ White, Indiana: White had a break out senior season. His first 3 seasons were marked by a serious foot injury as a soph and falling short as a prospect in one area or another the other two years. Here’s his career numbers:
| DJ White |
2 Pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Freshman |
.572 |
19.0 |
7.0 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
| Sophomore |
.528 |
20.7 |
13.5 |
0.6 |
3.2 |
| Junior |
.512 |
17.3 |
9.2 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
| Senior |
.607 |
20.6 |
12.2 |
0.4 |
2.9 |
The soph numbers are for only 5 games and 89 minutes. That was the year of the foot injury. The impressive thing to me is the rebounding improvement he made from freshman to senior year. That’s something that isn’t typical at all. Rebounding seems to be a skill a player is more often blessed with than something that’s developed. While rebounding rates do bounce around some, very few players go from being a substandard rebounder (<10.0) as a freshman and a good rebounder (>11.0) as a senior, like White did. Here’s a list of players I found who have made such an improvement.
| Player/R40 |
Freshman |
Sophomore |
Junior |
Senior |
| Greg Brunner |
8.6 |
11.6 |
10.4 |
11.6 |
| Mark Bryant |
9.2 |
10.0 |
8.9 |
11.3 |
| Alec Kessler |
9.0 |
7.3 |
12.2 |
12.4 |
| Grant Long |
8.1 |
8.9 |
11.8 |
12.2 |
| Anthony Mason |
7.4 |
8.4 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
| Tony Massenburg |
6.9 |
7.9 |
9.0 |
12.9 |
| DJ White |
7.0 |
13.5 |
9.2 |
12.2 |
The good news for White is that 4 of these players lasted a long time in the league, 3 of them overcoming being a low draft choice. This shows that rebounding improvement is often real and something that will last into the NBA. Mason is the only player who made so much as an all-star team, but a long career is a good and profitable thing, no matter how much hardware is won. DJ White seems capable of doing just that. I don’t think he’s going to have a huge impact, but he certainly should be good enough to put in a long, workmanlike career.
12. Darnell Jackson, Kansas: Jackson is a player who has been in a tough situation for a prospect. I’m sure he’ll cherish being an important part of an NCAA champion for the rest of his life, but I wonder if his lot as a prospect would have been better had he gone elsewhere and played a bigger role for 4 seasons. As a senior he logged over 20 minutes per game for the first time in his career. Normally such a player wouldn’t attract much attention, but Jackson has spent his career fighting the likes of Wayne Simien, CJ Giles, Julian Wright, Sasha Kaun and Darrell Arthur for playing time on a team that’s very perimeter oriented. Because of this it’s best to look at his per minutes stats over the course of his career, to see if he’s been a solid player.
| Darnell Jackson |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Freshman |
.548 |
11.4 |
9.5 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| Sophomore |
.505 |
16.4 |
12.8 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
| Junior |
.550 |
14.3 |
13.2 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
| Senior |
.633 |
18.2 |
10.9 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
Jackson has been a decent player. I can forgive the low points, because the opportunities just weren’t there for him. His efficiency has been good enough for 2 seasons, so that area of his game is fine. The rebounding has been solid also. His defensive numbers are on the weak side and there’s really no way to spin those into something good. The overall prospect is a little soft to be considered seriously and in a strong year for PFs he may not even get drafted. He’s good enough that he might catch on somewhere, but is more likely destined for the D-league or overseas unless his defense improves.
13. Charles Rhodes, Mississippi State: Rhodes is an OK scorer who comes up just a little short everywhere else. He can score pretty effectively from inside and out. Not a great scorer, but he does it well enough and in enough different ways that it’s definitely considered a strength for him. Everywhere else he’s just a little short of where he needs to be. He rebounds at 9.7 per 40, gets 2.3 SB40 and has the A/TO just below 0.4. Any one of those wouldn’t be a huge problem if the other numbers were solid. Together it’s just too many negatives. One more quick note on Rhodes: He missed 3 games in the middle of the season. The Bulldogs won those games by an average of 19.3 points. I don’t know what to make of that, as there could be many reasons for this. But it isn’t a good sign for a player when his team performs so well without him.
14. Leon Williams, Ohio: Strong inside player from the MAC. I’m not sure they’re quite a mid-major conference. He’s a solid inside scorer and rebounder. Williams posted a ridiculous 1.85 PPS this past year as a senior. His ability to get to the line was a key there. Ohio has been a relative hotbed for small college PFs the past 10 years or so. In the mid 90s there was Gary Trent, AKA the “Shaq of the MAC”. More recently Brandon Hunter was grabbing every rebound in sight. Both had modest stints in the NBA. Here’s how Williams stacks up against those two Ohio stalwarts:
| Player |
2 pt. FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Gary Trent |
.569 |
26.7 |
14.9 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
| Brandon Hunter |
.545 |
22.4 |
13.2 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
| Leon Williams |
.613 |
21.9 |
13.1 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
Williams numbers stack up well against these two. He doesn’t have the monster numbers Trent posted in points and rebounds, but is a more efficient scorer and a better defender. I would say if Trent and Hunter were able to log limited time in the NBA, there’s no reason Williams couldn’t do the same. It night be tough for a player like Williams this year, but he could surface somewhere down the line.
15. Dwayne Curtis, Mississippi: Listed as a center, but is only 6’8”and not much of a shot blocker, so this is the best place for him. Strengths are rebounding and inside scoring. I mentioned he isn’t a shot blocker, but he did get a lot of steals for a big man, so there is some defensive ability here. At this point he’d have to be considered a long shot. He does some things well and I could see him adding some inside depth to any team. But he’s a year older than most prospects and his game is pretty one-dimensional. In a year that’s loaded with good PFs, I doubt he’ll make much of an impact.