This is the other half of the small forwards, or more accurately a 3rd group of forwards. The problem I had ranking these players with the other was I felt they were different types of players. A good example is last year with Al Thornton and Corey Brewer. Both were listed as SFs, but were very different players who offered different skills to prospective teams. Comparing such players to each other seemed a little pointless. So I decided to break off players who fit somewhere between SFs and PFs and call them combo forwards. Such a player will fall into one of three categories.
- A college PF who is a good player, but seems too small to make the jump to PF as a pro.
- A college PF whose skills suggest he’s more of a SF. For example his strengths are shooting and passing, as opposed to rebounding.
- College freshmen and sophomore forwards who I’m having trouble figuring out what their eventual pro position will be.
Think Keith Van Horn, Rodney Rogers or Al Thornton. A combo forward enters the NBA as a SF, but plays some PF out of necessity or when the team goes with a small lineup. He might not be an adequate rebounder, but can get around that by offering a match up problem with his outside shot. The older players in this group are all likely bench players at best. The younger players have some promise and some might even become impact players at either forward position, but haven’t really shown what their best position will be just yet.
I’m going to make the important stats similar to those of the small forwards, with one exception. Rather than ASB40, I’m going with RASB-T40, or all the non-scoring stats minus turnovers. This seems to be a better fit for this group, because it makes rebounding matter some. Also important are Adj FG pct, P40 and A/TO. I’ll keep this simple for now and focus on those 4 numbers for these players.
|
Player |
fgpct | adjfg% | P40 | R40 | A40 | S40 | B40 | TO40 | A/TO | rasb-t40 | asb40 |
| Calathes, Pat |
0.448 |
0.623 |
21.20 |
9.10 |
3.28 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
2.78 |
1.18 |
12.35 |
6.28 |
| Anderson, Ryan |
0.490 |
0.627 |
25.51 |
12.00 |
1.72 |
0.44 |
0.66 |
2.71 |
0.64 |
12.24 |
2.82 |
| Thomas, Will |
0.642 |
0.645 |
18.56 |
12.00 |
2.28 |
1.05 |
0.61 |
1.77 |
1.29 |
13.76 |
3.94 |
| Larry, Reggie |
0.536 |
0.618 |
21.94 |
10.39 |
2.06 |
1.59 |
1.16 |
2.99 |
0.69 |
12.59 |
4.81 |
| Quaintance, H |
0.598 |
0.598 |
14.94 |
15.50 |
3.07 |
2.68 |
2.94 |
3.24 |
0.95 |
20.74 |
8.68 |
| Mays, James |
0.483 |
0.494 |
15.00 |
9.52 |
2.86 |
2.43 |
0.97 |
3.40 |
0.84 |
12.90 |
6.26 |
| Hines, Kyle |
0.566 |
0.568 |
24.37 |
11.37 |
1.64 |
2.22 |
3.64 |
4.08 |
0.40 |
14.78 |
7.50 |
| Gist, James |
0.496 |
0.552 |
19.29 |
9.55 |
1.65 |
1.54 |
2.83 |
3.31 |
0.50 |
12.65 |
6.03 |
| Duncan, Josh |
0.496 |
0.690 |
22.15 |
8.35 |
2.36 |
0.77 |
1.11 |
2.94 |
0.80 |
9.65 |
4.25 |
| Luenen, Maarty |
0.559 |
0.769 |
17.65 |
10.66 |
3.28 |
1.02 |
0.40 |
1.82 |
1.80 |
13.41 |
4.70 |
| Mbah a Moute, R |
0.478 |
0.498 |
12.23 |
8.35 |
2.15 |
1.43 |
0.63 |
2.61 |
0.82 |
9.85 |
4.22 |
I won’t be doing any historical comps with these players, since I haven’t separated such players from the regular SFs yet. I’m not even sure it’s worth the effort to separate the forwards into 3 groups, but it seems logical so we’re going to try it for this year and see how it works.
These subjective rankings are based on the order of which player I would take all other things being equal.
1. Ryan Anderson, California: Ryan Anderson is an excellent scorer. He actually looks like he’d be a better SF than PF if you look at his scoring numbers, but he does rebound better than most PFs and centers. The problem is his defensive numbers are practically non-existent. Here’s a comp of Anderson with other player who topped 24 P40 and 11 R40 as freshmen and sophomores and, like Anderson, could score from both inside and outside the arc:
| Player |
2 Pct. |
3 Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Joe Smith |
.586 |
.429 |
25.5 |
13.0 |
0.6 |
5.4 |
| Keith Van Horn |
.628 |
.386 |
27.9 |
11.3 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
| Glenn Robinson |
.522 |
.380 |
35.6 |
11.9 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
| Troy Murphy |
.525 |
.326 |
25.5 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
2.7 |
| Danny Granger |
.544 |
.300 |
28.3 |
11.7 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
| Kris Humphries |
.455 |
.340 |
25.4 |
11.8 |
0.2 |
2.4 |
| Nick Fazekas |
.554 |
.327 |
26.2 |
11.9 |
0.4 |
2.8 |
| Ryan Anderson |
.530 |
.410 |
25.5 |
12.0 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
Anderson’s defensive numbers pale in comparison to those of Van Horn, Murphy and Robinson, which is a strong sign he has some serious work to do on that end of the court. I wouldn’t say this is a deal-killer for Anderson though. The following players all made at least some impact after posting an SB40 lower than 1.5 at one or more times during their college career: Jason Kapono, Danny Fortson, Pat Garrity, Bobby Simmons, Linas Kleiza, Anthony Mason, Detlef Schrempf, Juwan Howard and AC Green.
Anderson can rebound better than most PFs and shoot the lights out. That combination of skills should get him work somewhere and could keep him around for a long career. The defense probably isn’t as bad as it looks. California did have Devon Hardin to handle the bulk of the defensive chores, so it’s possible Anderson’s numbers were hurt by his presence. I could easily see him becoming a player in the mold of Murphy or Van Horn.
2. Pat Calathes, St. Joseph’s: He did a good job of filling up some stat sheets his senior year and that’s always a good thing. His numbers in just about every category were solid. The only issue I would have is he’s much more of a perimeter player than an inside player. He did average 9.1 R40, which is decent for a SF, but hit on only .485 of his 2 point shots which is pretty weak. It’s very rare for a SF to hit between .400 and .500 on both 2-pointers and 3-pointers. I found only 2 such players:
| Player |
2 Pct. |
3 Pct. |
PAO |
R40 |
A/TO |
ASB40 |
| Kyle Korver |
.443 |
.480 |
22.3 |
8.0 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
| Morris Peterson |
.494 |
.425 |
23.1 |
8.3 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| Pat Calathes |
.485 |
.400 |
21.2 |
9.1 |
1.2 |
6.3 |
Peterson and Korver have become gunners in the pros, and good ones at that. Calathes can fire, but I’m not sure I see him in such a role. He’s a little taller than those two and is a better rebounder. Unlike Korver and Peterson, I doubt he’s quick enough to guard the perimeter. One concern I had about Calathes is the fact that he first appeared on my radar as a prospect following a strong senior season through January. His numbers waned in February and March, so my concern was that his prospect worthiness was built on a 3-month hot streak.
| Pat Calathes |
2 Pct. |
3 Pct. |
P4O |
R40 |
A/TO |
ASB40 |
| Freshman |
.500 |
.154 |
9.3 |
5.5 |
1.1 |
6.2 |
| Sophomore |
.398 |
.341 |
11.3 |
8.2 |
1.2 |
5.9 |
| Junior |
.484 |
.417 |
18.2 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
6.5 |
| Nov-Dec-Jan |
.457 |
.453 |
22.5 |
10.2 |
1.1 |
6.7 |
| February |
.544 |
.356 |
21.5 |
7.8 |
1.4 |
7.0 |
| March |
.491 |
.333 |
18.2 |
7.9 |
1.1 |
4.8 |
I see this table as a positive. The ASB40 has been consistently good. He’s been a decent rebounder since his sophomore year. He came on as a scorer as a junior, which isn’t uncommon, and improved it in his senior year. The only glitch is a minor 3-point shooting slump in Feb. and March. The point is Calathes isn’t a senior year or 3-month wonder. He showed serious improvement every season and made himself into a decent prospect. The type of player he reminds me of most are European players like Bargnani and Radmanovic. He’s tall, but more of a perimeter player. He’s an above-average passer. He’s put up good defensive numbers, but I have trouble believing he’s going to be much of a defender at the next level. His rebounding is poor for a PF, but is probably good enough that he could play and be effective in the right situation. That’s the type of player Calathes looks like he can become. Not a starter, but an effective reserve if used properly.
3. James Gist, Maryland: Gist is an iffy prospect. He’s been a great college defender, but has always come up a little short as a rebounder and scorer. As a pro, he’ll probably need to develop a 3-point shot and that’s where his quest gets interesting. Here’s his 3-point shooting history:
| James Gist 3-pointers |
Made |
Attempted |
Pct. |
| Freshman |
0 |
1 |
.000 |
| Sophomore |
0 |
1 |
.000 |
| Junior |
9 |
21 |
.429 |
| Senior |
22 |
71 |
.310 |
OK, so he’s not exactly Steve Kerr. But I do give him some credit for not only attempting to diversify his game, but succeeding at a limited level. There’s anecdotal evidence, specifically Ryan Gomes, that a player who is able to diversify his game during his college career is a better prospect than his numbers might suggest. Gist isn’t the college player Gomes was, but with his defensive skills it’s not too difficult to see him becoming one of those defense/gunner types who are becoming more and more popular.
4. Haminn Quaintance, Kent State: An interesting player. Quaintance has posted solid numbers across the board. He’s a solid rebounder. He only scored 10 PPG, but hit .598. He’s a good shot blocker and gets more steals than most guards. He’s a good passer for a big man, averaging 2 APG with and A/TO around 1.0 for 2 seasons now. He’s never been a great 3-point shooter, but he did hit .333 on 30 attempts as a sophomore. That was the only time attempted anything close to a significant number of treys. He was 3-17 combined in his other 3 seasons. His defensive number are dominant enough that I feel he’s a player teams should be looking at as an energy player off the bench. He seems like the type who could have a big impact on a game for short stretches. If the minimal ability he’s shown to shoot a 3-pointer can be built on, he has the potential to be a pretty decent player.
5. Maarty Leunen, Oregon: This might be a little bit of a stretch, since Leunen played PF and center at Oregon. But his skills fit the position and he might be able to make a go of it here. Leunen was a good college PF, but is too overmatched defensively to get to the NBA exclusively as a big guy. Looking at his skills, he’s a good fit in this crowd. He’s a strong rebounder, good passer and a wildly efficient scorer. He’s a legit 40% shooter from behind the arc. The defense isn’t great, but any player with this diverse group of skills should be able to find a spot on a bench somewhere.
6. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA: Two years ago as a freshman, Mbah a Moute looked like he would develop into a pretty decent prospect. Now he’s become a player who doesn’t score often or efficiently enough and doesn’t have the other stats to make up for the offensive shortfall. Here’s his career up until now:
| Luc Richard Mbah a Moute |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Freshman |
.538 |
12.7 |
11.4 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
| Sophomore |
.492 |
11.3 |
10.2 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
| Junior |
.478 |
12.2 |
8.4 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
This is a pretty strong prospect as a freshman. He hit 54% of his shots and was a stellar rebounder. The scoring was low, but as a supporting player on a final 4 team, he looked like a player capable of stepping up his scoring to 20 P40 within the next couple of seasons, while holding strong at the other stats. That just didn’t happen and now he looks like a non-prospect. The fact that he did put up good numbers as a freshman is a good sign. But the fact that there has been decline rather than improvement since then isn’t. What would be a huge plus for him is if he had at least learned to drill the 3-pointer, but this hasn’t happened. He’s obviously talented and can probably fill a role as a defensive specialist at G, SF or PF depending on the match up. But since he has yet to develop a decent offensive game it’s difficult to see him making much of an impact.7. James Mays, Clemson: Mays might be the best defender in this group. At Clemson he was one of the keys to their pressure defense and would often guard the opponent’s backcourt. He gets more steals than most guard prospects and he’s no slouch as a shot blocker. The problem is he’s never developed much of an offensive game. Unlike Gist and Larry, he never figured out how to consistently hit the 3-pointer. His FG pct. was over .500 only once in four years and his P40 is a low 15.0. I doubt he can make it on defense alone.
8. Reggie Larry, Boise State: Larry’s numbers are pretty solid, but he seems a little mismatched for any position. He played PF in college, but that won’t fly in the pros, because he’s only 6’6”. There’s some evidence he’s developing a decent perimeter game. He has more steals than the average PF and he made good on 43% of his 86 3-pointers as a senior. That’s good, but there are plenty of quicker guards out there who can top that and play an effective perimeter game to boot. He really doesn’t stand out from the crowd in any other way. The numbers aren’t bad, but they just don’t wow me and in his position that’s what he needs to do. He doesn’t have the defensive numbers of Hines, Quaintance, Mays or Gist. Offensively he can’t match the scoring prowess of Anderson and Duncan, the efficiency of Leunen or the versatility of Calathes. He’s a good player, so there’s a chance he’ll make it. The problem I have is I really don’t see a player with his skills being effective at the next level.
9. Josh Duncan, Xavier: Like Leunen, he’s an efficient scorer. He can score effectively from all over the court, he gets to the line frequently and can hit FTs with the best of them. Everything else about his game is substandard. That’s probably what held him to averaging roughly only 21 minutes per game the last 3 seasons at Xavier, despite what he brought to the team as a scorer. A player has to do at least one thing well other than scoring to make it as a SF. Duncan has yet to flash that second skill.
10. Kyle Hines, UNC-Greensboro: Hines looks like the typical “too short to make the jump” type of player, but he has some nice numbers. He’s listed at only 6’6”, but he was the top shot blocking PF in college last year. His steals numbers are better than those of most guards and his rebounding is in the top half of PFs. So it’ pretty clear he was a great small college defender. As a scorer he looks like he’ll struggle. He scored over 20 PPG, but his FG pct. has been around 55% for the past 2 years and this is pretty low for a college PF prospect, let alone one from the Southern Conference. He’s shown no ability to hit the 3-pointer in college, going 4-24 in 4 seasons. This would have been huge for him. So defense will have to be his ticket. The problem is he’s too short to be an effective defender at his college position, PF. I doubt he can be a perimeter defender, because there will probably be some quickness issues and such players usually need to be able to hit an open 3-pointer, which Hines hasn’t proven he can do. His only ticket would seem to be a trip to the developmental league to learn how to play the perimeter.
11. Will Thomas, George Mason: Like Hines, Thomas has been a good small college player with a size/stat combo that just isn’t a good fit in the NBA. Thomas posted strong inside scoring and rebounding numbers, but is only 6’7” and 230 lb. He’s also one of the better passing PFs in the country, but that’s never been a skill in huge demand when talking about big players. He doesn’t offer much in the way of defense or 3-point shooting and that’s going to be a killer for him. A player who’s 6’7” 230 needs to show some perimeter skills or he really doesn’t have a chance. Thomas has yet to show such skills.