Last year’s crop of SGs was one of the weakest I’ve seen. This year it looks like one of the deeper groups. Most of the depth is of the lower round variety though. There’s very little star power in this group. OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon would seem to be potential stars, but both players have a ways to go before they’re at that level. Below them are a group of juniors and seniors who have developed into pretty decent prospects. They’re not on the level of a Mayo, but they’re certainly good enough that if I were a team drafting in the top 10, I wouldn’t feel bad about passing on Mayo or Gordon for a talented big man with the idea of drafting a SG in round 2.
I haven’t had any new revelations with SGs in the past year, other than the fact that I’m not considering the A/TO ratio to be a huge deal unless it’s below 0.8. The statistics that I will look at as most important here will continue to be scoring at least 20.0 points per 40 minutes, regular and 2-point FG pct. of .425 and .500 respectively and a RSB40 of at least 7.0. If there are any other glaring negatives or positives involved, I’ll take those into account also, but I won’t get too serious about it.
Here are the pace adjusted stats:
|
Player |
fgpct | 3pct | 2 pct | P40 | A40 | S40 | TO40 | A/TO | RSB40 | pps |
| Douglas-Roberts, C |
0.541 |
0.413 |
0.578 |
23.99 |
2.35 |
1.62 |
2.75 |
0.86 |
7.69 |
1.51 |
| Foster, Shan |
0.523 |
0.469 |
0.610 |
23.37 |
1.89 |
1.22 |
1.96 |
0.97 |
7.14 |
1.49 |
| Giddens, JR |
0.516 |
0.333 |
0.557 |
20.21 |
3.88 |
1.77 |
2.75 |
1.41 |
14.15 |
1.32 |
| Kemp, Marcelus |
0.449 |
0.380 |
0.490 |
24.67 |
4.08 |
0.86 |
3.03 |
1.35 |
7.93 |
1.33 |
| Mayo, OJ |
0.442 |
0.409 |
0.464 |
22.95 |
3.66 |
1.71 |
3.93 |
0.93 |
7.18 |
1.28 |
| Roby, Richard |
0.477 |
0.382 |
0.520 |
20.82 |
2.52 |
1.26 |
4.09 |
0.62 |
10.58 |
1.38 |
| Lee, Courtney |
0.477 |
0.397 |
0.515 |
26.70 |
2.72 |
2.36 |
3.05 |
0.89 |
9.74 |
1.35 |
| Tyndale, Mark |
0.488 |
0.368 |
0.525 |
17.32 |
4.65 |
1.73 |
3.75 |
1.24 |
10.26 |
1.48 |
| Nelson, DeMarcus |
0.490 |
0.388 |
0.532 |
17.67 |
3.58 |
1.90 |
3.01 |
1.19 |
9.34 |
1.41 |
| Weaver, Kyle |
0.463 |
0.364 |
0.491 |
15.73 |
5.58 |
2.22 |
3.58 |
1.56 |
9.93 |
1.43 |
| Gordon, Eric |
0.433 |
0.337 |
0.525 |
23.87 |
2.78 |
1.50 |
4.10 |
0.68 |
5.92 |
1.57 |
| Rush, Brandon |
0.435 |
0.419 |
0.448 |
17.81 |
2.85 |
1.12 |
2.42 |
1.17 |
9.10 |
1.22 |
| Crawfod, Joe |
0.469 |
0.364 |
0.548 |
21.75 |
2.59 |
0.69 |
3.36 |
0.77 |
5.30 |
1.34 |
| Riley, Mykal |
0.448 |
0.433 |
0.474 |
18.60 |
2.19 |
2.04 |
2.19 |
1.00 |
9.17 |
1.31 |
| Lofton, Chris |
0.399 |
0.384 |
0.437 |
19.83 |
2.27 |
1.70 |
1.74 |
1.31 |
5.89 |
1.31 |
The prospect numbers compared to prospects of the past:
| NCAA Freshman SG prospect | FG pct. | 2 Pct. | 3 Pct. | P40 | A/TO | RSB40 |
| All-star |
.443 |
.506 |
.346 |
19.9 |
0.9 |
9.7 |
| Rotation Regular |
.475 |
.501 |
.361 |
17.7 |
1.2 |
8.9 |
| OJ Mayo |
.442 |
.464 |
.409 |
23.0 |
0.9 |
7.2 |
| Journeyman |
.437 |
.504 |
.344 |
17.9 |
1.0 |
8.1 |
| Eric Gordon |
.433 |
.525 |
.337 |
23.9 |
0.7 |
5.9 |
| Never made it |
.426 |
.482 |
.344 |
16.5 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
| NCAA Junior SG prospect | FG pct. | 2 Pct. | 3 Pct. | P40 | A/TO | RSB40 |
| All-star |
.466 |
.524 |
.380 |
23.1 |
1.2 |
9.6 |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts |
.541 |
.578 |
.413 |
24.0 |
0.9 |
7.7 |
| Rotation Regular |
.468 |
.517 |
.377 |
21.1 |
1.3 |
9.1 |
| Journeyman |
.439 |
.497 |
.362 |
21.0 |
1.1 |
8.5 |
| Brandon Rush |
.435 |
.448 |
.419 |
17.8 |
1.2 |
9.1 |
| Never made it |
.442 |
.499 |
.369 |
19.4 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
| NCAA Senior SG prospect | FG pct. | 2 Pct. | 3 Pct. | P40 | A/TO | RSB40 |
| All-star |
.436 |
.523 |
.364 |
22.0 |
1.4 |
9.1 |
| JR Giddens |
.516 |
.557 |
.333 |
20.2 |
1.4 |
14.2 |
| Courtney Lee |
.477 |
.515 |
.397 |
26.7 |
0.9 |
9.7 |
| Mark Tyndale |
.488 |
.525 |
.368 |
17.3 |
1.2 |
10.3 |
| DeMarcus Nelson |
.490 |
.532 |
.388 |
17.7 |
1.2 |
9.3 |
| Rotation Regular |
.477 |
.533 |
.396 |
22.9 |
1.3 |
8.4 |
| Shan Foster |
.523 |
.610 |
.469 |
23.4 |
1.0 |
7.1 |
| Marcellus Kemp |
.449 |
.490 |
.380 |
24.7 |
1.4 |
7.9 |
| Richard Roby |
.477 |
.520 |
.382 |
20.8 |
0.6 |
10.6 |
| Kyle Weaver |
.463 |
.491 |
.364 |
15.7 |
1.6 |
9.9 |
| Journeyman |
.459 |
.525 |
.379 |
21.7 |
1.2 |
8.4 |
| Joe Crawford |
.469 |
.548 |
.364 |
21.8 |
0.8 |
5.3 |
| Mykal Riley |
.448 |
.474 |
.433 |
18.6 |
1.0 |
9.2 |
| Never made it |
.432 |
.496 |
.371 |
19.5 |
1.2 |
7.6 |
| Chris Lofton |
.399 |
.437 |
.384 |
19.8 |
1.3 |
5.9 |
Subjective rankings in order of which player I would take all other things being equal:
1. OJ Mayo, USC: When a player achieves rock star status in high school he’s bound to inspire strong feelings about his game both ways. There are many who resent anyone so young and so famous and will rip into someone like Mayo every chance they get. One of the causes of this resentment will often be another group of fans rallying around the player. I’ve seen this happen with Mayo. He came under some heat during the season for not quite living up to the hype. Now there are many singing his praises as possibly being in the same class as Rose and Beasley. The ironic thing is right now OJ Mayo projects as neither a star nor a bust, but nothing more than an above-average NBA SG. As the chart above shows OJ Mayo’s numbers show him to be a fairly ordinary prospect at this point in his career. He scores a lot of points, which is great, but the other numbers don’t suggest he’s anything special and if anything paint him as a player who’s weak defensively and doesn’t score efficiently enough. The biggest concern for me is his 2-point shooting pct. of .464. That’s a pretty low number, as is the 7.2 RSB40. Neither one is enough to make me think he’ll be anything resembling a bust, but both are on the soft side. I think it best here to compare him with past freshmen who did have some success after posting a weak 2-point pct.
| Player |
FG Pct. |
2 Pt. Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Richard Hamilton |
.386 |
.392 |
20.8 |
0.9 |
7.7 |
| Steve Smith |
.466 |
.465 |
14.7 |
1.1 |
7.0 |
| Larry Hughes |
.415 |
.461 |
25.8 |
0.6 |
9.4 |
| Cuttino Mobley |
.377 |
.432 |
16.6 |
0.8 |
8.6 |
| Voshon Lenard |
.421 |
.473 |
18.9 |
1.3 |
8.3 |
| Allan Houston |
.437 |
.440 |
22.5 |
1.3 |
5.0 |
| Harold Miner |
.472 |
.497 |
23.6 |
1.3 |
5.7 |
| OJ Mayo |
.442 |
.464 |
23.0 |
0.9 |
7.2 |
I tossed Baby Jordan in there just to show where the last over hyped Trojan SG was at the same point in his career. This isn’t a huge group, but the fact is most successful SGs were much more efficient scorers and put up much better defensive numbers than OJ Mayo has at this point in his career. Because of this, I doubt very much we’re looking at an elite player here. Will he be good? He almost certainly will, though right now he projects more as someone on the level of Richard Hamilton or Steve Smith at best, as opposed to the next Jordan or Wade.
I will say that subjectively I like him a lot. He hustles on the court as much as any player I’ve seen. Sometimes he tries to do too much and overplays. But that’s a good trait to have and will serve him well once he gets more experience and adjusts to the pro game more. Hustle is good, but a player also has to produce at a certain level in order to become a good player. Mayo hasn’t done that and there’s nothing in his numbers to suggest he’s a dominating player. There’s plenty to suggest he’s on track to become an ordinary or even overrated player though. Right now my inclination is to say he’ll be a good scorer in the league , but the rest of his game will remain on the weak side and this will keep him as a good, but not great player.
2. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis: The most impressive thing about CDR is his ability to put the ball in the basket. He’s shot over .500 all 3 seasons he’s played college ball. FG Pct. has long been an important stat in evaluating prospects. It’s a sign of how easily a player scores. For SGs, the pass/fail level in FG pct. has been around .425. A player has to be above that number to be considered a serious prospect. The best ones have been closer to .500 though. Here’s a list of college SGs I found who hit over 50% of their shots in their first 3 seasons while scoring a decent number of points and playing at a major college. The numbers listed are for their junior seasons:
| Player |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Clyde Drexler |
.536 |
18.3 |
1.4 |
14.5 |
| Michael Jordan |
.551 |
23.2 |
1.0 |
10.8 |
| Hersey Hawkins |
.533 |
25.0 |
1.4 |
8.5 |
| Reggie Miller |
.556 |
27.0 |
1.0 |
7.0 |
| Fred Hoiberg |
.535 |
22.5 |
1.7 |
9.5 |
| Jeff Grayer |
.504 |
21.3 |
1.1 |
8.8 |
| Todd Lichti |
.547 |
20.4 |
1.0 |
7.2 |
| Shon Tarver |
.524 |
19.7 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
| Steve Harris |
.579 |
22.0 |
1.1 |
6.4 |
| Dwayne McClain |
.591 |
14.6 |
1.3 |
6.4 |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts |
.541 |
24.0 |
0.9 |
7.7 |
This list may or may not be complete, but does include every player who has been considered a prospect over the last 25 years or so. The list includes the greatest player ever, a couple of perennial all-stars, another solid pro who made one all-star game, a few longtime journeymen and three who never quite made it. One thing this table does show is the importance for a prospect of meeting the standards of 20.0 P40 and 7.0 RSB 40 by the time they’re juniors and seniors. Drexler is a notable exception, but the other 3 players who fell short in one or more of those areas were the three players who never made the league, no matter how efficiently they scored. Regarding Drexler, he played SF in college and was the 2nd option on offense after Hakeem. Back to CDR, he has both of those numbers covered, so that should qualify him for NBA journeyman status at the very least. It’s also important to point out that CDR is the first player in several years to accomplish this, probably because the use of the 3-pointer has increased so dramatically in the last 15 years.
Any college SG who scores as often and efficiently as Douglas-Roberts has to be considered a strong prospect. As a junior he started to hit the 3-pointer effectively for the first time, drilling it at a .413 rate. The non-scoring numbers could only be called adequate at best, but they’re good enough. The A/TO is low, but it’s not like he’s TO-prone. He actually has a comparatively low number of TOs. He just doesn’t get a lot of assists and that could have as much to do with the Memphis offense as anything. The numbers say Chris Douglas-Roberts should have a solid career. His strength will be scoring and he definitely has the potential to become a perennial 20+ PPG guy. The defense and passing parts of his game look like they need some work, though he’s good enough that he won’t be overmatched.
3. Mark Tyndale, Temple: If anyone asked me who I thought the top sleeper in this draft is, I would probably go with Tyndale. He’s been a 4-year starter at Temple. His first two seasons were unimpressive, but in his final 2 seasons he became a strong scorer and his numbers are just too good to ignore. Somewhat embarrassingly, he’s flown below my radar until recently. Here’s a look at his numbers for the last couple of seasons:
| Mark Tyndale |
FG Pct. |
2-pt. Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Junior |
.539 |
.565 |
26.3 |
1.1 |
10.1 |
| Senior |
.488 |
.525 |
17.3 |
1.2 |
10.3 |
As a junior he emerged as a star, but was somewhat overshadowed by teammate Dionte Christmas who led the team in scoring. As a senior, he continued to put up solid numbers, but the scoring was down some. A couple of reasons for this could be a slower-paced offense and the fact that he was asked to play more PG, while Christmas remained the top offensive option. But focusing on his stellar junior season, here’s a list of SGs who have exceeded 25 P40, .500 FG pct. and 10 RSB40 in the same season:
| Player |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Michael Jordan |
.535 |
25.9 |
0.7 |
10.9 |
| Michael Jordan |
.551 |
26.5 |
1.0 |
10.8 |
| Dwayne Wade |
.501 |
26.8 |
1.4 |
12.2 |
| Hersey Hawkins |
.524 |
37.1 |
1.7 |
11.5 |
| Dell Curry |
.529 |
25.9 |
1.3 |
10.8 |
| Blue Edwards |
.551 |
31.3 |
1.0 |
10.8 |
| Jeff Grayer |
.523 |
27.4 |
1.1 |
12.7 |
| Dennis Hopson |
.518 |
33.1 |
1.3 |
12.4 |
| Corey Benjamin |
.539 |
29.5 |
0.8 |
11.3 |
| Mark Tyndale |
.539 |
26.3 |
1.1 |
10.1 |
Jordan’s numbers are for his sophomore and junior years. This is obviously a strong group. The greatest player ever and a future HOFer are on this short list. Also included is one of the most famous busts ever in Hopson. The important thing to note is every player except Benjamin and Hopson were at the very least able to stay in the league for a long time.
What we have to ask is whether Tyndale’s lower scoring numbers his senior year an issue? I don’t see them as a huge problem, for the simple reason that he proved he could put up big scoring numbers as a junior. One successful player who comes to mind as having an excellent junior year before tanking as a senior is Michael Finley. Finley’s FG pct. as a senior was .379 after 3 seasons in the .460 range. That didn’t stop him from becoming a successful NBA player. Tyndale hardly struggled his senior season. It was more of a case of a player put in a different role. He played a lot of PG as a senior. While this may have hurt his scoring numbers, it’s worth pointing out that he got to the line much more often, as good PGs do, and he was still posted an excellent 1.48 PPS. Mark Tyndale has shown himself to be a solid NBA SG prospect in his junior season. As a senior, he diversified his game by showing he could play some PG. As prospects go, there is nothing not to like here. His numbers in defense, efficiency and passing all match up with the best. As a scorer he was right there as a junior, before tailing off some as a senior. That could be a problem, but I just don’t see it that way. Seriously, NBA teams should be all over this guy.
4. Eric Gordon, Indiana: Gordon is a tough player to gauge. He’s a terrific scorer when he was on. He’s very difficult to control once he gets into the lane and he knows how to draw a foul. Scoring is the only thing he showed any ability for as a freshman. The chart above shows he has some serious negatives in A/TO and RSB40. I’m not too concerned about the A/TO. Generally that’s something that improves with experience. The RSB40 is a bad sign and suggests that Gordon is unlikely to become a star. Here are freshmen who, like Gordon posted an RSB40 below 6.0.
| Player |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Reggie Miller |
.509 |
13.5 |
0.8 |
5.4 |
| Allan Houston |
.437 |
22.3 |
1.3 |
5.0 |
| Hubert Davis |
.512 |
18.7 |
0.8 |
5.0 |
| Dana Barros |
.479 |
15.8 |
1.9 |
5.6 |
| Jon Barry |
.372 |
13.6 |
1.2 |
5.7 |
| Terry Dehere |
.402 |
19.4 |
0.7 |
5.7 |
| Harold Miner |
.472 |
23.6 |
1.3 |
5.7 |
| Rex Chapman |
.444 |
19.3 |
1.5 |
4.9 |
| Vern Fleming |
.480 |
11.1 |
1.2 |
4.7 |
| Shawn Respert |
.503 |
19.9 |
0.8 |
4.2 |
| Trajan Langdon |
.453 |
17.6 |
1.3 |
4.1 |
| JJ Redick |
.407 |
19.0 |
1.3 |
4.7 |
| Eric Gordon |
.433 |
23.9 |
0.7 |
5.9 |
There are some notable busts in here: Miner, Respert, Langdon and Redick. I don’t know that we need to condemn Gordon to that status just yet. He’s a better scorer than most at this stage and his RSB is higher than all the others here. I also want to say that watching Gordon, I didn’t see a player who couldn’t play defense, but a player who didn’t play defense. He rarely took on the opponents’ best player or guarded the point and often seemed to drift. While watching I wondered if he was resting on defense to save himself for offense as part of an overall team strategy. This makes some sense, because he was the Hoosiers’ only real offensive threat. So I’m willing to give him a break on the low defensive numbers, based on his size, athleticism and my impression that he was holding back some.
There’s more negative dirt on Gordon. He was really terrible in conference games.
| Eric Gordon |
FG Pct. |
3 Pct. |
2 Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
PPS |
| Pre-conference games |
.482 |
.437 |
.529 |
28.8 |
0.7 |
7.1 |
1.82 |
| Conference & Tournament |
.408 |
.285 |
.524 |
21.6 |
0.7 |
5.4 |
1.45 |
He did have an injury to his non-shooting hand. That and the coaching drama couldn’t have been a good situation to play under, so I’m willing to give him somewhat of a break here also. Keep in mind though that the fact that his numbers got terrible once the competition got tough is not a good thing no matter how the situation might be spun. I see Gordon as sort of a Mayo lite. He has the same ceiling in his career as a player similar to Rip Hamilton, Steve Smith or Allan Houston. He also has many more negatives and red flags than Mayo and is more likely to be a bust because of it.
5. JR Giddens, New Mexico: Giddens had a nice senior season. He looked like a serious prospect for the first time in his checkered college career. The high points were career highs in everything, other than 3-point shooting and FT shooting. He rebounded like a PF and led all SG prospects in RSB40, with 14.15. But this is a guy who went from McDonald’s all-American playing for a national power to a 5th-year senior who finally looks like a decent prospect, but spent the last 2 seasons trying to resurrect his career playing at a mid-major. It would seem he’s up against it. To show how he’s evolved as a player look at how his shooting percentages have changed over the years:
| JR Giddens |
FG Pct. |
2 pt. Pct |
3 pt. Pct. |
FT Pct. |
FTA/FGA |
3A/FGA |
| Freshman |
.475 |
.583 |
.407 |
.667 |
.09 |
.61 |
| Sophomore |
.404 |
.545 |
.337 |
.680 |
.09 |
.68 |
| Junior |
.441 |
.528 |
.301 |
.590 |
.28 |
.38 |
| Senior |
.516 |
.557 |
.333 |
.586 |
.39 |
.18 |
His first two seasons at Kansas he was mainly a 3-point shooter. At New Mexico the 3-pointers declined in both frequency and percentage. He became more of an inside scorer at New Mexico, which is probably for the better. He’s always hit his 2 point shots very efficiently and in general most successful SG prospects have taken more 2 pointers than 3 pointers. I don’t think low 3 point percentage is much of a concern. He’s hit over 40% once and has been over .333 in all but one year. The low FT pct. is puzzling. A FT pct. below .600 isn’t a big deal in itself, but it could be a sign that he just isn’t much of a shooter any more. That’s not the biggest worry though. I would think some time spent working on his outside shot should get him back to where he was as a freshman. The main thing here is he was a consistently strong 2-point scorer. The biggest concern is that he waited until his 5th-year to become a dominant player after a so-so career. I do like his chances. It’s unfortunate that it took him this long to get his game together, but he should get credit for finally getting things right. He probably won’t be a star, or even a starter. As good as his numbers are, a 23 year-old beating up on the Mountain West just isn’t as impressive as an OJ Mayo doing what he did in the PAC 10. Giddens did show enough that finding a role as a valuable reserve shouldn’t be too difficult for him.
6. Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky: Lee has been a wildly consistent player. He can score, having been over 20 P40 for 3 seasons now. He’s hit over .450 all 4 years and as steadily increased that number to a career high of .477 as a senior. His 3-point shooting has hovered within a few percentage points of .400 his entire career. The defensive numbers have also been consistently strong. His A/TO isn’t great, but has been good enough for 3 of his 4 years and that’s what matters. The biggest concern for me would be the level of competition Lee put these numbers up against. As I mentioned with Bo McCalebb in the combo guards article, the Sun Belt Conference is on the low end of the mid-majors. Western Kentucky played the 161st most difficult schedule in the country. I’m still a little shaky on how mid-major numbers translate to the NBA. What I can do is compare Lee to successful mid-major and small college SG prospects of the past.
| Player |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Bonzi Wells |
.490 |
31.4 |
1.0 |
14.6 |
| Hersey Hawkins |
.524 |
37.1 |
1.7 |
11.5 |
| Blue Edwards |
.551 |
31.3 |
1.0 |
10.8 |
| Lucious Harris |
.525 |
25.4 |
1.2 |
8.0 |
| Doug Christie |
.466 |
22.9 |
1.3 |
10.1 |
| Kevin Martin |
.474 |
31.9 |
0.6 |
8.9 |
| Trenton Hassell |
.485 |
22.8 |
1.2 |
10.0 |
| Courtney Lee |
.477 |
26.7 |
0.9 |
9.7 |
The numbers for Christie and Martin are junior year numbers, as both players entered the league following their junior years. Lee’s numbers put him on the lower end of this group and possibly at the bottom. He’s definitely comparable to the likes of Martin, Christie, Hassell and even Harris at this point though. Considering that and the fact that he’s been a solid, consistent player during his 4 years at Western Kentucky, tells me he’s a player who should be able to hang around the league a pretty long time. He won’t be a star, but should become a decent enough player.
7. Shan Foster, Vanderbilt: Last year I went a little overboard in evaluating one of Foster’s teammates, Derrick Byers. Byers had who met all the minimum standards I had set for successful SGs and because of that I touted him as a mid-first round pick. One thing I didn’t consider when making this assessment was that Byers only emerged as a prospect his senior season. The same thing makes me a little leery of Foster, despite some decent numbers. I haven’t looked at this issue in too much depth, but there seems to be a trend of failure for players who step up their games to prospect level for the first time as seniors. Foster is such a player.
| Shan Foster |
FG Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
.441 |
16.1 |
1.3 |
6.7 |
| Sophomore |
.451 |
19.7 |
1.0 |
4.5 |
| Junior |
.449 |
19.3 |
1.2 |
7.7 |
| Senior |
.523 |
23.4 |
1.0 |
7.1 |
Before his senior year, Foster could be described as a good, but not great player. He exploded as a senior, becoming one of the most efficient scoring guards in the country. I wouldn’t call Foster anything more than a marginal prospect, despite his scoring prowess. Even if I made the argument that sharing the scoring load with Byers cost him some points the 2 previous seasons, his efficiency and defensive numbers were still only ordinary. I’m also never too crazy about a player who suddenly ups his percentages so dramatically in one season. It’s impressive and could be real, but might also be nothing more than a player on a hot streak. The fact that such a high percentage of his FGA were 3-pointers is also a bad sign. Almost all successful SGs attempted more 2 pointers in college. Foster is a player whose ability to shoot might land him in the league, but after that he’ll have to prove his senior year was legit.
8. DeMarcus Nelson, Duke: Nelson is another player who cranked some of his numbers up enough as a senior that we have to give him a mention. Originally I was going to look at his case like I did with Rush, making the case that his scoring was suppressed some by playing on a talented team. Then I realized that Duke simply wasn’t all that talented, at least compared to Kansas. Nelson had a nice senior season and is a good college player. As is the case with others here he just doesn’t score enough points. His defensive numbers were good and he has decent size and long arms, so he might make it as a situational defender. That would be about it though.
9. Brandon Rush, Kansas: Rush has the same low scoring issues as Weaver. Because he’s a player on a team full of scorers, I tend to give him somewhat of a break here. But the fact remains that very few SGs with a P40 below 20 ever amount to anything beyond a marginal player. Rush has been a mainstay in the Jayhawk lineup for 3 seasons now. A look at his career suggests there are more problems here than simply a weak scorer. Here are his numbers:
| Brandon Rush |
FG Pct. |
2 Pct. |
3 Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
PPS |
| Freshman |
.474 |
.474 |
.472 |
14.3 |
0.8 |
7.9 |
1.24 |
| Sophomore |
.443 |
.451 |
.431 |
16.5 |
1.0 |
8.2 |
1.25 |
| Junior |
.435 |
.448 |
.419 |
17.8 |
1.2 |
9.1 |
1.22 |
He doesn’t score with nearly enough efficiency to be considered much of a prospect. Rush’s shooting percentages have declined all 3 seasons. He wasn’t an efficient scorer to begin with and his 2-point pct. is dangerously low. Of all the SG prospects this year, only Chris Lofton and Alex Harris were lower. This is something that could be forgiven if he were a freshman or if this were a one season aberration, but he’s been an inefficient scorer for all three seasons of his college career now and his numbers are declining. The first thing to look at with SGs is whether they can score both often and efficiently. Rush has done neither in any of his 3 seasons. He is a good defender and it’s not hard to see him succeeded as a gunner/defender in the NBA. But his prospect numbers are truly bad. If he hadn’t played on the national stage, I doubt his name would even be mentioned as a serious prospect.
10. Richard Roby, Colorado: Roby looked like a pretty solid prospect as a soph and almost entered the draft that year. It probably would have been his best move, because his career has deteriorated since. As a junior he shot only .383 overall and .268 on treys. His A/TO has been below 0.7 for 2 seasons now, which has always been sort of a fatal level for SGs. There is a glimmer of hope for Roby though. Look at his career numbers:
| Richard Roby |
FG Pct. |
3 Pct. |
2 Pct. |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
PPS |
| Freshman |
.445 |
.374 |
.507 |
20.8 |
0.7 |
9.3 |
1.26 |
| Sophomore |
.422 |
.356 |
.472 |
22.5 |
1.2 |
11.2 |
1.25 |
| Junior |
.383 |
.268 |
.442 |
21.5 |
0.7 |
8.4 |
1.13 |
| Senior |
.477 |
.382 |
.520 |
20.8 |
0.6 |
10.6 |
1.38 |
There are some good things here. He scored over 20 P40 in each of his 4 seasons, which is the most important thing for a SG prospect. His defensive numbers are excellent and included a year where he averaged over 2 steals per game. He was a reasonably efficient scorer as a senior. The bad part is his weak A/TO in 3 of his 4 seasons. The only way I can explain that away is to point out that Roby did play forward for most of his last 2 seasons. For much of his senior season he was one of 2 players on the court for the Buffaloes who was 6’6” or taller. Playing against bigger players constantly had to affect his numbers some. I don’t know if this is enough to make him a prospect or not. I can name 2 successful SG prospects, Michael Redd and Michael Finley, who were able to shake off terrible college seasons and become solid pros. Roby has shown he can do everything a NBA SG needs to do, he just hasn’t done it all together in one season. At 6’6” his size isn’t going to be an issue. I would say he’s worth gambling on.
11. Marcelus Kemp Nevada: He became a big time scorer as a senior, topping 20 PPG. His other numbers also look fine. Below the surface there are a few things that bring him down a few notches. The first is he’s 24. He missed two seasons early in his career and now is 2 years older than most prospects and 4-5 years older than the best prospects. At 24, there’s less of an upside than a player who is 22, let alone 19. The 2nd issue is he played for a mid-major. This isn’t a big issue, but his numbers were put up against weaker competition than the likes of Rush, Nelson and Weaver. Finally his non-scoring numbers are a little soft and look more like that of a SF than a SG. He averages less than a steal per game and posted an A/TO over 1.0 for the first time as a senior. If his numbers blew me away, these things wouldn’t bother me as much. The numbers don’t blow me away, they’re solid, but that’s about all. Because he’s a solid scorer, there is some hope for him. But in a crowded group of SGs, a player with a lot of negatives like Kemp has is going to have a hard time getting himself noticed.
12. Kyle Weaver, Washington State: A SG prospect has to score points. That’s the most important thing. There have been a few exceptions, but the basic rule is they must score at least 20 P40. This is especially true for juniors and seniors. Weaver’s case is especially bleak, because he’s not a particularly efficient scorer either. He did hit treys at a decent rate, .364, for the first time in his career, but that was on only 66 attempts. What Weaver does have going for him is he’s an excellent defender and passer. That may not be enough though. Here is a list of successful SGs who scored less than 20 P40 in their final college season:
| Player |
P40 |
FG Pct. |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Clyde Drexler |
18.3 |
.536 |
1.4 |
14.5 |
| Alvin Robertson |
17.9 |
.499 |
1.4 |
10.1 |
| Jeff Hornacek |
14.7 |
.478 |
2.8 |
6.5 |
| Vinnie Del Negro |
18.6 |
.515 |
2.4 |
8.1 |
| Kyle Weaver |
15.7 |
.463 |
1.6 |
9.9 |
The good news for Weaver is Robertson, Hornacek and Del Negro all played a lot of PG in college, just like he did. The bad news is every player on this list entered the NBA during the 80s. While I could envision some team drafting Weaver near the end of round one with the idea of utilizing him as a defensive specialist, I still have serious doubts about him. The fact that he doesn’t score often enough or efficiently enough is a problem and historically is something that has been tough for prospects to overcome.
13. Mykal Riley, Alabama: I’d like Riley a lot more if he were more of a scorer. As I’ve mentioned many, many times, players who can’t get their P40 above 20.0 rarely make an impact. Even defensive specialists in the NBA were usually scorers in college. I also don’t like how he scored, with about 63% of his shots coming from behind the arc. It’s just better for a SG prospect to prove he can score inside and Riley hasn’t really done that. What I do like is he’s a 6’6” leaper who can both shoot and defend. Like Rush he could find a gunner/defender role, but that’s his high end.
14. Chris Lofton, Tennessee: Lofton is a nothing more than a gunner. He’s shown no ability to play PG and isn’t much of a defender, but he can fire it. He’s also been a decent 2-point shooter, has gotten to the line fairly frequently and always posted a strong PPS. His senior year numbers are weak, but he was going through cancer treatment, so it might be better to focus on how he played as a junior. Because he can shoot, there’s probably a place for him somewhere. Such players seem to be valued. Best case scenario for him is to become a poor man’s Ben Gordon.
15. Joe Crawford, Kentucky: Crawford has to be looked at, because he’s near or close to the standards in all the important statistics. He’s also 6’5”, which is a good height for a prospective NBA SG to be. The numbers are just barely there though. He only passed 20 P40 as a senior this past season. He’s never averaged over a steal per game. His A/TO was a weak 0.77 this year, but he was at 1.30 last year. Worse players than Joe Crawford have latched on in the league, but most players like him don’t make it.