NBA Draft Preview 2010: Senior Point Guards

When an NCAA player lasts until his senior season without turning pro it typically is not a good sign for the player. It means the player either took this long to get his name on the map as a prospect or he simply hasn’t been good enough his first 3 seasons to get a guarantee in the first round. On the other hand, it shows he’s smart and mature enough to make a realistic assessment of his abilities and go back to college, which in most cases is probably the best option for such a player. So with the senior PGs we have a group of smart players with limited ability.

I’ve mentioned before that the 2010 class of PGs is somewhat less than impressive. John Wall is obviously a potential star, but it falls off pretty quickly after him. I’ve already weighed in on Lin, Bradley and Bledsoe, who are probably the next 3. Now I’d like to look at the best remaining seniors.

Here are the numbers:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Greivis Vasquez	.470	.359	22.7	7.4	1.9	7.7
Edgar Sosa	.526	.383	18.7	6.5	1.7	4.4
Ishmael Smith	.449	.222	13.6	6.2	2.0	7.4
Ben Uzoh	.519	.343	17.6	5.4	2.0	7.4
Sherron Collins	.469	.370	18.1	5.2	1.9	3.8
Jerome Randle	.509	.404	21.3	4.9	1.2	3.2
Devan Downey	.431	.342	26.2	4.1	1.0	7.1

By the time a PG is a junior or senior they should be at least at the following numbers to be considered strong prospects:

• .500 two point FG pct, while also showing a decent ability to hit a 3-point shot.
• 18.0 P40
• 5.5 A40
• 1.5 A/TO
• 6.0 RSB40

In the case of FG pct, assists and RSB, the higher number a prospect gets, so much the better for his chances. With points and A/TO more is OK, but not necessary. It is also good to show an ability to get to the line. The 7 players here fall short in one or more stats and are considered marginal prospects for that reason. The list is in order of preference.

Greivis Vasquez, Maryland: Vasquez was in the draft mix last year and even got a mention in my preview, which must have been submitted before he pulled out and returned to Maryland for his senior season. He made a good decision in not trying to compete with the legendary PG class of ’09. I ranked him #10 last year, right behind Jonny Flynn. My take on him at the time was that despite some positives his scoring was way too inefficient to consider him a serious prospect. That he might stick around with a team intrigued with his length, but was nothing more than a reserve. Vasquez improved his numbers and draft stock during his senior year:

Greivis Vasquez	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Freshman	.522	.316	13.0	6.1	1.7	6.1
Sophomore	.531	.309	17.8	7.1	1.6	7.7
Junior	.452	.327	20.1	5.8	1.8	8.2
Senior	.470	.359	23.1	7.4	1.9	7.9

This is a fairly normal progression for a 4-year college player. The first season he was in a supporting role and looked promising enough. As he took on a bigger role in the offense, his efficiency suffered. By his senior year he had improved enough that he was clearly a better prospect. Considering his improvement and the circumstances of each draft it is safe to say he made the right move in returning to Maryland. But his .470 2-point pct. is still on the low side. Almost all successful NBA guards were over .500, at least by the time they were seniors and in most cases well before that. Here is a list of recent PGs who made the league and either played significant minutes or were at least able to stick in the league for a long time who posted a sub-.500 2-point pct. as a college senior:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Bobby Jackson	.476	.330	19.4	5.1	1.7	10.7
Jason Terry	.473	.398	22.9	5.8	1.3	6.6
Howard Eisley	.470	.481	18.1	5.2	1.8	5.6
Rick Brunson	.469	.286	17.4	4.3	1.7	8.9
Vernon Maxwell	.467	.395	21.9	4.7	1.5	6.6
Jacque Vaughn	.466	.333	12.9	7.9	2.5	5.5
Randy Foye	.463	.350	23.7	3.5	1.4	9.0
Jason Hart	.460	.330	14.1	7.7	1.9	5.8
Eddie House	.449	.365	24.8	3.7	1.5	8.4
Bimbo Coles	.448	.307	27.4	4.3	1.2	8.0
Anthony Goldwire	.440	.301	18.6	6.6	1.7	6.4
Randy Brown	.417	.278	15.3	8.2	1.8	8.4
Steve Blake	.413	.416	14.3	8.8	2.2	6.7
Brevin Knight	.407	.409	20.4	9.8	2.3	8.3
Jamaal Tinsley	.406	.381	17.7	7.5	1.6	8.6
Greivis Vasquez	.470	.359	23.7	7.4	1.9	7.9

I didn’t include Charlie Ward because his numbers were almost certainly negatively affected by him starting basketball only after football had ended each year. Jason Terry was actually over .500 for his sophomore and junior seasons, but slumped as a senior. I think this is significant to note, because Terry is by far the most successful player on this list. As for Greivis Vasquez, he’s in the top half of most of the statistical categories and has a solid height advantage on most of this group at 6’6”. In fact you could make the case that as a senior he was the best player of this group. That should bode well for a journeyman NBA career lasting 10-12 years and 15,000 minutes with stops in about 10 different towns. But before I anoint Vasquez as the next Brian Shaw or Rick Brunson, I need to point out something else. Most of the players listed were able to stick around a long time, because they had or developed a specific skill that teams needed. Jackson, Terry, Maxwell and House became potent scorers. Players like Vaughn, Coles, Blake and Knight were valuable because they were all capable of running an offense with a steady hand for stretches of games. Randy Brown was a defensive specialist. I’m not sure I see Vasquez as much of a specialist.

In Greivis Vasquez we have a prospect who in his senior season put up decent, but not great numbers. He doesn’t look like a starting PG, but he’s close. What he has going for him is he’s 6’6”, possesses good passing skills and a willingness to score if needed. His defensive numbers are good enough. I could see drafting him in the 20-35 range in this shallow draft. My opinion remains that he looks like a good long-tern NBA journeyman. His ultimate NBA success will depend on things like whether the improvement in passing and offensive efficiency he showed throughout his college career is real and if he can continue to progress.

Ben Uzoh, Tulsa: Uzoh is an interesting contrast to Collins and Vasquez. Like those two he has been a 4-year regular. Unlike those two, Uzoh’s college career was played out of the spotlight at Tulsa. He started out as a SG, moved to the point as a junior, but still doesn’t look like a pure PG. Here are the career numbers:

Ben Uzoh	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40	FTA40
Freshman	.421	.392	15.3	2.3	0.7	10.8	5.6
Sophomore	.569	.350	19.3	2.8	1.0	8.9	5.4
Junior	.489	.328	15.8	4.0	1.4	7.8	5.0
Senior	.519	.343	17.6	5.4	2.0	7.4	5.0

Important note is that Uzoh has always been one of the top 2 scorers on his team. This might say more about Tulsa and their balanced offense than anything, but it is impressive. There is some good and some bad in the numbers. He has always been good on defense, with some spectacular freshman numbers there. He turned himself from a guy with a 0.7 A/TO as a freshman SG to a senior with respectable PG passing numbers. As a scorer he would rank as below-average, but not terrible. He was never close to being over 20 P40 and had only one season over 18.0, which is kind of an unofficial cutoff for the loose benchmarks that I use for ranking PGs. The season over 18, he actually played SG, which makes it even less impressive.

As a prospect Ben Uzoh is close, but not quite there. I get the feeling that there is something here, but he never put things completely together in 4 years at Tulsa. It isn’t like he did get an opportunity, playing over 4500 minutes in 4 years. Between his size, athleticism, good defensive numbers, the fact that he made himself into a solid college PG by the time he was a senior and occasionally flashed  decent scoring efficiency I would say Ben Uzoh is definitely good enough for a 2^nd round look.

Sherron Collins, Kansas: Collins has been a 4-year mainstay on a national power. He has spent his career sharing the Jayhawk backcourt with a number of players ranging from stars to good college players, including Rush, Chalmers, Robinson, Taylor and Henry this past season. This probably had a negative affect on his stats, but such is life playing for a power. Here’s a look at Collins’ numbers by the years and how he progressed:

Sherron Collins	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40	FTA40
Freshman	.532	.405	16.2	5.1	1.8	5.3	2.9
Sophomore	.534	.362	15.4	5.1	1.5	5.7	2.8
Junior	.472	.376	21.1	5.6	1.5	4.5	5.3
Senior	.469	.370	18.1	5.2	1.9	3.8	4.5

The first couple of seasons he was a supporting player, logging around 23 minutes per game. His numbers were good for such a player. He scored efficiently and passed well. His defensive numbers were still too low. Note that he took fewer FTs his first couple of seasons. This suggests he was a player whose offense came mostly from the perimeter. Not a good sign, as a NBA PG needs to show he can get to the line at a reasonable rate. The final 2 seasons he was the leader of the team in both minutes and points. Here his prospect status dropped. He wasn’t as efficient a scorer as he had been in a part-time role, he didn’t step up his passing game enough to look like a real PG and his defensive numbers dropped to an unacceptable level.

Sherron Collins simply doesn’t look like much of an NBA PG prospect. He falls short in just about every important statistical category. He doesn’t have the height or numbers of Vasquez, the efficiency of Lin, or the promise of Bledsoe and Bradley that I could justify using even a 2^nd round draft pick on him in this shallow draft. This was a good college player, but I don’t see the NBA in his future.

Devan Downey, South Carolina and Jerome Randle, California: There just aren’t too many small players who make the NBA. The lower a player measures below 6’, the less likely it is he’ll make the league. Downey is 5’9”, Randle is 5’10” but only 160 lbs. Neither was much of a PG this year, but both have shown enough PG ability in the past to make me think they could handle the position at least part-time. As prospects they have different strengths and weaknesses. Randle is an excellent scorer, who has shown little on the defensive end. Downey is a good ballhawk, but has been erratic offensively his entire career. Randle has been getting some positive buzz because of his play at Portsmouth. I doubt either player is worth a draft pick, but if I had to choose one over the other, I’d go with Downey. Defense is a more difficult skill to develop and Downey seems to already have the defensive chops. Very few PGs have ever had a long-term impact in the league after posting a RSB40 below 5.0 as a senior. Those who did, specifically Kenny Smith, Steve Kerr and Sherman Douglas were either wildly efficient scorers in college or great passers. Randle’s RSB40 is a ridiculously low 3.2 and he’s nowhere near being the offensive player the successful low RSB players were.

Ishmael Smith, PG Wake Forest and Edgar Sosa, PG Louisville: A couple of seniors who got more of a chance in their final seasons. Both had similar careers in that they showed some promise as freshmen, were eclipsed by more talented teammates in their sophomore and junior years, but came back with a decent senior season. Both have something to like about them. Sosa became a decent scorer and Smith is a strong floor general. Sosa’s weak defense and Smith’s weak offense should preclude any team from drafting either one though. The question I have about players like this is: How would their careers have unfolded had they attended a mid-major, or even a school like Iowa, Georgia or Oregon, where they likely would have gotten more PT and more of a chance to shine? I guess we’ll never know. Such a situation didn’t turn Ben Uzoh into a great prospect, but it did give him plenty of PT, which has him solidly in the 2^nd round discussion right now. This is something prospects should be thinking about when choosing a college.