This is the last of the SGs. Well start to move into the frontcourt next, before getting to the Walls, Turners and Favors of the draft. Things get better after this, because the strength of this draft is in the forwards and big guys this year. Henry and White are basically two players who didn’t fit with the other group of SGs, so they get lumped together. They do have similarities too. Both are young and have flashed some good potential. Neither has scored frequently enough over an entire season. Here are there numbers:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
RSB40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
| Xavier Henry |
.492 |
.418 |
18.7 |
8.9 |
2.1 |
0.8 |
| Terrico White |
.487 |
.343 |
18.9 |
7.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Xavier Henry, Kansas: This is a tough player to figure. As a freshman he fits comfortably into what some recent all-star SGs have done. Henry is ahead of where Jason Richardson, Michael Finley, Richard Hamilton, Latrell Sprewell and Reggie Miller were as freshmen. He also is well below where the likes of Todd Lichti, Rashad McCants and Joseph Forte were as freshmen. In other words at this point he could become just about anything as a player. I’ve compared him to numerous different groups of freshmen SGs and there really isn’t much that stands out. Best thing to do is look at his splits and try to make some sense out of it.
| Xavier Henry |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
RSB40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
| Nov-Dec |
.569 |
.459 |
22.7 |
9.0 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
| January |
.326 |
.325 |
14.6 |
9.3 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
| February |
.551 |
.389 |
20.2 |
7.7 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
| March |
.429 |
.520 |
15.2 |
9.7 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
He shot the trey well and posted solid defense/rebounding numbers. His scoring was soft and erratic, but not poor enough that I’d dismiss him because of it, especially considering he was a freshman playing on a loaded roster and played 2nd fiddle behind erratic senior Sherron Collins for most of the season. Here’s a look at the skills he showed in each important area:
· Scoring: Henry was at a pace-adjusted 18.7 P40, hitting .492 on twos and .418 on threes. That in itself is fairly impressive. Looking at his splits, he had an incredible start and a disastrous January, before righting himself in Feb. In March he became more of a supporting player. Throw out January and he’s at .537 and .451 for the year. The most impressive thing about his offensive game is the outside shot. If nothing else, he looks like he has what it takes to become a deadly 3-point shooter at the next level. That alone will keep him in the league for a long time.
· Defense/NBA athleticism: The RSB40 was consistently over 7.0, usually over 9.0 and finished up at a solid 8.9. No problems here.
· Turnovers: This one could be a problem. Just looking at freshmen SGs and TOs, I’ve seen a trend that suggests players under 0.8 have a tendency to disappoint as pros. Henry is at 0.77. If this is true, it is something that will affect James Anderson also. I haven’t looked at this hard enough to call it a fact, but there is something there. The fact that Henry declined during the season as the competition got tougher certainly isn’t a good sign.
Henry remains a tough call. All I can really say about him is he hasn’t shown he isn’t an NBA player, but he also has yet to show he is. The numbers come up short in some areas, but he is just a freshman who played on one of the nation’s most talented teams. That certainly affected his numbers. He looks like he has the goods to become an excellent gunner, but I also see signs of passiveness on offense and that’s something that will hurt any SG in his quest to make the NBA. He disappeared in March when the Jayhawks could have used a player who took the lead. He shied away from passing as the season progressed. He just doesn’t seem to possess the aggressive offensive mindset that the best SGs have. My opinion of him is that any team drafting him will get a player who will develop into a very good 3-point shooter who plays defense capably at the very least. At the high end he could become a player like Michael Finley or Reggie Miller if he can develop a more aggressive offensive mindset.
Terrico White, Mississippi: White has been getting some buzz as a prospect. He’s projected to go early in round 2 right now, but with his athleticism and length I could see him sliding into round one once all the impressions made at the workouts are digested. He put himself on the map last year when the Rebels’ starting PG Chris Warren went down 11 games into the season. White took over as the PG and while he didn’t exactly dazzle as a passer, he did post some impressive numbers:
| Terrico White |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Pre-Warren injury |
.382 |
.375 |
11.1 |
2.7 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
6.1 |
| Post-Warren injury |
.569 |
.353 |
21.1 |
3.2 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
5.8 |
| Sophomore |
.487 |
.343 |
18.9 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
7.2 |
I included this years’ numbers, because Warren returned this year as the PG and the leading scorer. What I would take from this is White is a player who right now is much better with the ball in his hands. He scored more often and efficiently when Warren wasn’t in the lineup. That said, I think the idea of him at PG is farfetched. While he did play the position after Warren went down, he didn’t have anywhere near the passing numbers needed to succeed at the next level. Another red flag is his low numbers of steals, which have been consistently low for 2 seasons whether Warren was on the court or not. SGs who have made a successful transition from college to the NBA either have far more than 1.1 S40 or are able to shoot the lights out. White has neither.
As a sophomore, White didn’t progress as hoped. White took a backseat when Warren returned and took back his role as PG and top scorer upon his return. Finishing below 20.0 P40 has traditionally been a huge negative for any SG prospect, but it really isn’t a critical number until the junior and senior years. Here is a list of past college SGs who became successful pros after posting a P40 below 20.0 their sophomore seasons:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
RSB40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
| Latrell Sprewell |
.550 |
.398 |
19.7 |
8.5 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
| Joe Johnson |
.476 |
.443 |
19.6 |
11.4 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
| Quentin Richardson |
.471 |
.376 |
19.5 |
12.8 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
| Eric Piatkowski |
.480 |
.346 |
19.0 |
10.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
| Derek Anderson |
.512 |
.339 |
18.9 |
8.9 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
| Eddie Jones |
.506 |
.348 |
18.6 |
11.3 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
| Hubert Davis |
.486 |
.396 |
17.9 |
5.5 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
| Jon Barry |
.526 |
.368 |
17.6 |
6.6 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
| Alvin Robertson |
.548 |
n/a |
17.4 |
10.2 |
3.9 |
1.1 |
| Reggie Miller |
.553 |
n/a |
17.1 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
| Andre Iguodala |
.493 |
.315 |
16.1 |
13.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
| Fred Hoiberg |
.614 |
.367 |
14.2 |
9.9 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
| Kendall Gill |
.527 |
.304 |
14.6 |
6.0 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
| Terrico White |
.487 |
.343 |
18.9 |
7.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Each successful player could do one of three things. Hit well over 50% of his 2-pointers, post a RSB40 well over 7.0, or, in the case of Hubert Davis, later develop an ability to shoot the lights out from behind the arc. White did neither of the first two and seems unlikely to become the shooter Davis was. All except Piatkowski posted a S40 well above that of White. While this looks bad for White, it is important to point out that as a freshman he did score often and efficiently enough to look like a solid SG prospect, if we ignore the low defensive numbers.
At this point I would have to consider Terrico White a long shot to make an impact in the NBA. He certainly has the skills, but he has only looked like a prospect for one stretch that wasn’t even an entire season. He gets steals at a frequency so low that the S40 number in itself almost disqualifies him from being much of a prospect. Any team drafting Terrico White will be taking a gamble based on the hope that his length and athleticism will eventually turn into something special. Such bets rarely pay off and I just don’t see it happening in White’s case.