NBA Draft 2010: Ekpe Udoh and Greg Monroe

A couple of players who are reportedly on the rise as the pre-draft analysis winds down. The two players have some similarities, but are hardly mirror images. The similarities are both are good passing big men with a decent outside shot. Both are somewhere between a forward and a center. Neither is a very impressive scorer in either frequency or efficiency. Both are decent enough rebounders. Udoh is more of a shot blocker, while Monroe is a good all around defender. Neither looks like a great prospect, but both appear to be headed into the top 10 if you believe the mocks.

Player	2 pt	3 pt	P40	R40	A40	S40	B40	A/TO
Greg Monroe	.532	.261	18.4	11.0	4.2	1.6	1.9	1.1
Ekpe Udoh	.498	.318	15.4	11.5	2.9	0.8	5.0	1.0

Greg Monroe, Georgetown: In the NBA it has always been a good thing for a big man to pass. Big guys who are extraordinary passers for their position have a habit of winning championships. Being a great passer in college just doesn’t seem to mean all that much for a big guy though. It is better for a big guy to do the things big guys do. Big guys need to show they can rebound, block shots and score at an efficient rate. If they can pass that is wonderful, but not really consequential to their chances. I mention this to start, because passing is one of Monroe’s best skills. Here are college sophs who posted a high A40 like Monroe did this year:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	R40	A40	SB40	A/TO
Danny Ferry	.459	.397	16.9	9.4	5.2	1.8	1.1
Antoine Walker	.493	.188	22.5	12.4	4.3	3.5	1.2
John Williams	.498	.000	20.6	9.8	3.8	2.1	1.3
Terry Mills	.568	.000	17.2	8.7	4.2	2.8	1.4
Josh Grant	.548	.400	22.5	9.5	3.9	3.3	1.4
Jerald Honeycutt	.505	.312	19.7	8.5	3.9	3.1	0.9
Julius Michalik	.555	.356	16.9	6.0	4.4	2.5	1.7
Greg Monroe	.532	.261	18.4	11.0	4.2	3.5	1.1

That’s John “Hot Plate” Williams who played at LSU. Not a great group. Walker was an all-star, but showed here that he could score, albeit inefficiently, rebound and defend. Ferry had a long career, but only because he could shoot. He was one of the biggest draft busts of all time. Williams and Mills put together journeyman careers. In Mills’ case his success was due to developing a 3-pointer as much as anything. The important thing to note here is Monroe’s numbers are more impressive than any player here, with the possible exception of Walker. Monroe’s big guy numbers are all pretty solid, with the exception of scoring.

The scoring has to improve. Both his P40 and 2 pt pct were low for both a PF and center prospect. He was better as a freshman though. Here is a look at Monroe’s 2 seasons at Georgetown:

Greg Monroe	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	R40	A40	SB40	A/TO
Freshman	.578	.333	16.6	8.6	3.3	4.3	1.0
Sophomore	.532	.261	18.4	11.0	4.2	3.5	1.1

As a freshman he hit the shots at an OK rate, which is a good thing. As a sophomore he was a better rebounder. While it would be better if he had been at .578 and 11.0 both years, this shows he is capable of getting to where he needs to be, which is a good thing. The SB40 is strong, but it is heavy on the steals for a big guy. In both seasons he has averaged only 1.9 B40, which is on the low side for center prospects. That he has a high number of steals is a good thing, but a high number of blocks would be better. That seems to be the case with everything Monroe does. His most impressive numbers suggest skills that would be good for a wing player.

Greg Monroe is a different sort of prospect. He does a lot of things well and that’s a good thing. He’s good enough when everything is considered that he definitely should be drafted in the top ten. I also expect him to have a solid NBA career, because he’s a smart player who has played a team-focused game that may have hurt his numbers some. But he is 6’11” 250 and those players need to do some specific things first and foremost. Monroe isn’t going to play much on the wing, so his passing skills just aren’t all that relevant. He is going to play inside and his big guy numbers just aren’t all that impressive. Because of this, I doubt Monroe will be much more than a rotation guy, but possibly a very valuable one.

Ekpe Udoh, Baylor: Udoh spent 2 unproductive seasons at Michigan before transferring to Baylor and finding his game. How much of a game he found is still up for debate. He had already been a pretty good shot blocker at Michigan, but added some rebounding and passing. As a scorer he still comes up way short, despite an ability to pop an occasional trey. Here is a list of NCAA juniors and seniors who had at least a decent NBA career after hitting less than .500 on their 2-pointers:

Player	2 pt	3 pt	P40	R40	B40	A/TO
Marcus Camby	.484	.000	26.7	10.7	5.1	0.7
Tom Gugliotta	.488	.399	24.4	10.6	0.4	0.8
PJ Brown	.500	.360	17.0	13.2	3.2	0.7
Troy Murphy	.499	.349	24.0	10.2	1.8	0.7
Jamaal Magliore	.500	.000	17.8	12.8	2.3	0.2
Mark Bryant	.494	1.000	21.1	8.9	1.3	0.4
Reggie Evans	.497	.000	18.4	13.3	0.6	0.5
Francisco Elson	.431	.000	11.0	10.1	2.0	0.4
Duane Causwell	.486	.000	12.9	9.5	4.6	0.8
Dickey Simpkins	.451	.000	14.4	8.9	0.8	0.5
Marc Jackson	.481	.000	16.7	9.3	0.7	0.6
Jarron Collins	.489	.000	16.1	9.5	1.1	1.2
Brad Sellers	.476	.000	21.2	13.5	3.1	0.6
Marc Jackson	.481	.000	16.7	9.3	0.7	0.6
Jaime Feick	.473	.308	13.1	12.3	0.6	1.1
Greg Foster	.485	.000	15.8	10.4	1.1	0.3
Ekpe Udoh	.498	.318	15.4	11.5	5.0	1.0

Before we declare Ekpe Udoh the 2^nd coming of Marcus Camby, I need to point out some things. For the most successful players on this list, the season shown represents a low point. The top 6 players all had seasons where they were over .530, and in Camby’s case .550. For Udoh his .498 is a career high and a pretty big step up from where he was. Other than Brown and Magloire, the best players were all polished offensive players. All were the leading scorers on their teams. Udoh was Baylor’s 3^rd leading scorer. What we can say is that Udoh is he’s one of the best shot blockers on the list and that is important. But overall this is bad news for Udoh’s prospects. It bunches him with players who were career reserves.

Another thing to know about Ekpe Udoh is he’s one of the older players in the draft, having just turned 23. This has to be considered another negative. Not only does it flatten the curve of a player who is something of a project, but historically players who took this long to emerge just don’t have a great history. I don’t want to go all negative here. Udoh has flashed a diverse skill set, has great length skills and I could see him becoming a pretty good player. But his ceiling seems to be that of a very good role player and his floor is an overmatched bust. There are just too many negatives here to make him worth a pick in the lottery.