The second pick the NBA draft has produced many stars, but also many famous busts. Bob Petit, Bill Russell, Jerry West, Rick Barry, Earl Monroe Dave Bing, Wes Unseld, Rudy Tomjanovich, Bob McAdoo, Isaiah Thomas, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning and Kevin Durant were all drafted 2nd, which shows a HOFer can be found. The busts have fallen into 3 categories:
• Big guys who were more big than good: Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic, Shawn Bradley, Sam Bowie and Steve Stipanovich.
• Freshmen forwards: This is a more recent trend and includes only Michael Beasley and Marvin Williams.
• Players who probably weren’t worthy of a high pick, but were considered the next best option in a one-player draft: Stromile Swift, Danny Ferry, Dave Meyers, Marvin Barnes. Jim Brewer and Neal Walk.
The 2012 draft looks like a one-player draft to me, that one player being Anthony Davis. There are plenty of intriguing players, but none who look like a worthy gamble with the 2nd pick. There’s a potential big guy bust in talented, but raw Andre Drummond. There’s also the freshman forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and any number of players who could rise past the others during the process and land at pick #2.
I had originally planned to start the 2012 draft preview with a look at my choice for #2, Tony Mitchell of North Texas. Mitchell decided to head back to school so that will have to wait until next year. Instead I’ll start by looking at some of the players who are currently at #2 in the mocks. Leading off is Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
The thing that stands out with Gilchrist is the fact that nothing stands out. There is little in his numbers that suggest he’s a star. As a freshman he was something of a super-role player on the nation’s most talented team. But there is nothing about his statistics that suggest lottery pick, let alone the 2nd overall draftee. He finished 4th on the team in scoring, didn’t lead in any statistical categories and put up ordinary offensive efficiency numbers.
In his defense is that he was cast as a role player on a successful team and probably gave up individual stats for the good of the team because of it. Particularly low were the scoring numbers. Gilchrist finished with a 14.8 P40 (Points per 40 minutes). Successful prospects usually hit at least 18.0. To get an idea of how similar players developed, here’s a look at previous NCAA freshmen small forwards who scored less than 15.0 P40 (Points per 40 minutes), but went on to play at least 10,000 NBA minutes.
A quick rundown of the numbers used:
• Adjusted FG pct is points scored on all FGs divided by 2. I like using this efficiency number for SFs as opposed to the simple 2-point pct. I use for all the other positions. The reasons for this is historically it has been more important for SF prospects to post a higher number in this stat and a high AFGP often reveals a player who can score in multiple ways. This is also more important for a SF than other positions.
• P40 and R40 are points and rebounds per 40 minutes.
• ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. This is also a stat I use exclusively for SFs, because it showcases the diverse set of skills necessary for the position.
• A/TO is assist-turnover ratio. I include this number for all positions, simply because an extremely low A/TO can be a red flag.
Player Adj FG pct. P40 R40 ASB40 A/TO
Detlef Schrempf .452 11.7 7.1 2.3 0.6
Shane Battier .551 12.4 10.4 6.5 1.6
Robert Horry .438 13.6 10.6 6.4 1.0
Derrick McKey .477 9.2 7.4 5.2 1.1
Ty Corbin .417 9.4 11.4 4.2 0.5
Rick Fox .644 14.7 6.8 6.8 0.8
Stacey Augmon .578 14.1 9.3 7.1 0.9
Matt Harpring .540 14.0 7.2 4.6 1.1
Walt Williams .462 12.3 6.0 7.3 0.9
Jared Dudley .496 14.0 7.8 5.1 1.3
Trevor Ariza .462 14.7 8.2 5.3 0.6
Desmond Mason .438 10.7 5.9 3.3 0.5
Bobby Simmons .420 14.6 8.0 5.8 0.9
Malik Sealy .500 13.5 6.7 4.2 0.8
Tom Hammonds .609 15.0 7.9 2.2 0.6
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist .500 14.8 9.4 4.8 0.9
Players are listed in rough order of NBA accomplishment. Schrempf is the only all-star on the list, though Battier and Horry were both all-stars in terms of the intangibles they brought. The thing that stands out most about this group is that these are mainly role players. In the case of Schrempf, Battier, Horry and McKey I’d call them super-role players, but none could be considered more than the 3rd-best player on a contender. So that should be considered the far high end for Gilchrist.
Both Battier and Horry flashed other skills that aren’t as apparent with Gilchrist. Both players were strong rebounders, good passers and posted a very high ASB40. While not on the level of Battier or Horry, Gilchrist is a good rebounder and a decent passer, but his ASB40 is a low 4.8. This is a bad sign, as a common trait among successful SFs has been an ASB40 of at least 5.5.
It is worth noting that Gilchrist’s ASB40 was a much more respectable 5.5 at the end of February. In March and April his numbers fell across the board, but nowhere near as dramatically as they did in steals and blocks. It’s possible he was injured, or even fatigued, what with this being his first ever season at this level. Because he had been at 5.5 before the tournaments I can cut him a little slack here.
Battier, Horry and many of the others here also helped their careers by being able to knock down a 3-pointer consistently. Gilchrist hit only .255 on his 51 3-point attempts, so this is another part of his game that needs works. It isn’t that difficult for a player to develop a decent 3-point shot. With Gilchrist, who is young even for a college freshman and from everything I’ve read has a great attitude and work ethic, I would expect him to do as much. But until the shots actually start dropping this does remain something of a question mark.
As for Schrempf, he was something of an outlier. His numbers are for only 314 freshman minutes in 1982, which was before college basketball had a shot clock. While this does show that all NCAA freshmen have a long way to go and a lot is possible after a weak start, I don’t consider it too relevant.
For some more perspective on where Gilchrist stands, here are some previous freshmen SFs who left college after one year. Like Gilchrist, all played on national powers. Anthony and Williams played on loaded championship teams.
Player Adj FG pct. P40 R40 ASB40 A/TO
Carmelo Anthony .498 24.4 11.0 5.1 1.0
Corey Maggette .580 24.0 8.7 6.0 0.7
Tim Thomas .506 21.6 7.7 6.2 0.7
Marvin Williams .545 20.4 11.8 4.1 0.5
Luol Deng .563 19.4 8.7 5.4 0.8
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist .500 14.8 9.4 4.8 0.9
Gilchrist’s numbers are weak when compared to this group. He wasn’t the scorer the other players were. Successful prospects have with rare exception always scored more often and efficiently than Gilchrist did this past season. This has been regardless of whether they played on a roster loaded with HS all-Americans or not.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is not likely to become an NBA all-star. He just hasn’t shown he has the offensive chops to become such a player. His high end is a player in the mold of Battier or Horry. This isn’t a terrible thing as such players are valuable and rarely become overpaid salary cap problems. Everything I’ve read about his attitude and approach has been glowing, so I would even say he has a better chance of reaching the Battier/Horry level than his low ASB40 suggests. But he does have a long way to go. He has to learn to shoot better and because he didn’t put up the dominant defensive stats Battier and Horry did at the same stage of their careers, I would call him something of a longshot to reach that level. All I see in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a decent NBA SF who would be quite a reach at the #2 pick.