This is the other half of the small forwards, or more accurately a 3rd group of forwards. The role they’ve been playing mostly in the NBA has been the PF in a small lineup. The NBA keeps veering smaller and quicker as teams deal with the perpetual shortage of good big men. This pushes PFs to playing more center and creates a role for players like this who used to be considered too small to play PF at the pro level.
Two things that keep coming up in my evaluations of such players are the importance of hitting the outside shot at a decent rate and Robert Horry. Horry is probably the player most of these guys would hope to become. He could play either forward position. He could defend well and he could hit the 3-pointer when asked. The main qualities to look for in a good combo are:
- Offensive skills are a given just like for every position. The player must approach 20 P40 with good efficiency. It’s also important to have a varied offensive game, meaning a decent outside shot. Part of the appeal of such players is the outside shot that can pull the opposing PF to the perimeter and clear space underneath.
- Rebounding and defense. The prospect has to be at least adequate here and the better he is, obviously the better prospect he becomes. My favorite NBA team, the Chicago Bulls, used Andres Nocioni in this role a lot last year before he was dealt to the Kings. Nocioni is a poor rebounder and because of that the PF matchup often killed the Bulls. It was no surprise that the team went on a run after he was dealt. A prospect should average as close to 10.0 R40 and 2.5 SB40 as possible and preferably over on each number.
- As far as passing and turnovers, the main thing is not to be terrible. Since this is typically a bench position, being a low-mistake player is pretty important. It’s not necessary to be a great passer, but the prospect should show he’s both willing and somewhat able to pass the ball. As with every position, a high rate of turnovers or a low A/TO is a very bad sign.
These players are listed here, because they lack something that would put them with the PFs or SFs. For that reason there will never be much star power in a group like this. Daye is the only one who looks like he has some star potential, but even that’s a long shot. The others are good enough that they deserve a look at the very least, but not so much that there’s anything here to get very excited over.
|
Player |
fgpct | 3pct | 2 pct | P40 | R40 | A40 | S40 | B40 | TO40 | A/TO |
| Clark, Earl |
0.457 |
0.326 |
0.493 |
16.38 |
10.05 |
3.71 |
1.19 |
1.59 |
3.71 |
1.00 |
| Daye, Austin |
0.477 |
0.429 |
0.494 |
19.26 |
10.37 |
1.65 |
1.07 |
3.13 |
3.26 |
0.51 |
| Dozier, Robert |
0.519 |
0.375 |
0.549 |
16.55 |
9.58 |
1.84 |
1.63 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
0.72 |
| Harris, Paul |
0.494 |
0.227 |
0.537 |
14.96 |
10.02 |
2.69 |
1.28 |
0.87 |
2.62 |
1.03 |
| Carroll, D |
0.558 |
0.364 |
0.579 |
22.70 |
9.85 |
2.96 |
2.13 |
0.90 |
2.02 |
1.46 |
| Costner, B |
0.462 |
0.353 |
0.538 |
18.75 |
8.53 |
3.35 |
0.90 |
1.37 |
3.96 |
0.85 |
| Cox, Jonathan |
0.439 |
0.413 |
0.467 |
15.76 |
10.65 |
1.11 |
1.11 |
0.99 |
1.98 |
0.56 |
| Simpson, D |
0.505 |
0.188 |
0.521 |
16.54 |
12.91 |
0.72 |
2.09 |
1.95 |
1.92 |
0.38 |
Rankings are based on nothing more than the order I would raft each player all other things being equal. The similarity scores might be of some interest, but I’ll agan throw out the disclaimer that this calculation is new, rudimentary and has yet to be tested for accuracy. I’m just sort of tossing it out there, so don’t take it too seriously.
1. Austin Daye, Gonzaga: Daye is a tough call. There are some things he does very well, he has great length and obvious talent. But he’s yet to put together any sort of dominance on the court and it’s hard to fit him in to one position. He’s too weak of a passer to consider him an SF, and he doesn’t score inside well enough to play PF. That said, there are some intriguing numbers here, enough so that there’s no way this guy should get out of the lottery on draft night. The most impressive are his defensive numbers. He’s one of only a handful of players in NCAA history to average over 4.0 combined blocks and steals per 40 minutes in his first 2 NCAA seasons. Here is a list of NCAA players who have topped 4.0 SB40 in their first 2 seasons with their sophomore numbers:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Shelden Williams |
.589 |
19.4 |
13.0 |
6.1 |
0.4 |
| Joe Smith |
.586 |
25.5 |
13.0 |
5.4 |
0.6 |
| Pervis Ellison |
.533 |
19.8 |
11.3 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
| Chris Webber |
.679 |
24.2 |
12.7 |
4.9 |
0.9 |
| Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
4.7 |
0.6 |
| Keith Lee |
.502 |
21.0 |
12.1 |
4.5 |
0.7 |
| Antonio McDyess |
.514 |
21.3 |
15.6 |
4.4 |
0.3 |
| Ed Pinkney |
.568 |
15.1 |
11.7 |
4.3 |
0.7 |
| Byron Houston |
.537 |
22.3 |
12.0 |
4.3 |
0.5 |
| Al Horford |
.612 |
17.5 |
11.7 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
.657 |
22.0 |
10.8 |
4.3 |
0.7 |
| Alan Henderson |
.494 |
18.1 |
13.2 |
4.2 |
0.6 |
| Russell Larson |
.637 |
22.0 |
8.9 |
4.1 |
0.7 |
| Austin Daye |
.494 |
19.3 |
10.4 |
4.2 |
0.5 |
This is for players with a significant number of minutes only. I used 600, but in Brand’s case I was a little flexible. Chris Bosh, Eddie Griffin and Tyrus Thomas all topped 4.0 their freshman years, but didn’t stick around longer than that. While this group is impressive, it also shows topping 4.0 is no guarantee of success in itself. Lee, Houston and Larson all had short or non-existent stints in the league. Each of these three had a soft spot or two in their numbers, but all were superior to Daye at this point. Houston was only 6’4” if memory serves and that likely held him back as much as anything. While Daye has no issues with height or length, he weighed in at 192 lbs at the combine, so he’ll need to pack on some weight if he’s going to bang with the bigs at the next level. I’m no expert on this, but I’m fairly certain of he gets the right people working on his diet, Daye can pack on 20-30 lbs over the next year or two. Whether this helps his inside scoring remains to be seen, but the point is his skinny frame seems like a problem that can be fixed to a point.
In addition to the defensive numbers, Daye has also been a stellar 3-point shooter. He’s at about 42% on 147 attempts in his 2 seasons. So while his inside scoring is weak, he does offer something of an offensive threat from the outside. That’s a good thing, but very few PFs have had the 3-pointer at the center of their offensive game. I’m certain some team can find a use for a skinny 6’11” forward with shotblocking skills, whose only offensive weapon is the 3-pointer, but that will be as a role player. He can be a good one too, but that’s about all. If he wants to move beyond that he’ll need to bulk up and learn to score inside.
Most similar players to Austin Daye:
Robert Horry, sophomore: .938
Anthony Parker, junior: .925
Corey Williams, sophomore: .924
Curtis Withers, junior: .922
Joe Johnson, sophomore: .921
Horry would seem to be a good match. He’s a good defender whose best offensive weapon is the 3-pointer. With Daye’s length and shot-blocking skills, I could easily see a similar player emerging.
2. Demarre Carroll, Missouri: A 5th-year senior, he emerged from anonymity to become one of the best players in the nation. He did it all for the Tigers, leading the team in scoring and rebounding while passing and defending well. He has the same problem of most players here in that it’s tough to see where he might fit. As a PF he’s smallish and his rebounding is a tad soft. He’s very intriguing as an SF though. He’s a strong defender, picking up steals like a SG. He’s also one of the better passing big men in the nation and generally plays a low-mistake game. He may or may not have the outside shot to go with that. He did hit .364 as a senior, but that was on only 44 attempts. Before that he shot about 20% over 3 seasons and 53 attempts. Like any player on this list, getting that shot to fall consistently will be huge for his career.
I do like Carroll’s chances. Watching him play, he’s a very hard worker on the court who seems to love playing the game, especially on defense. He’s become an efficient scorer with a diverse set of skills. I’m not sure exactly where he would fit, but there would come a time in the draft, probably somewhere in the last part of the first round where I would take my chances on him, figuring there would be a way to get his skills into the lineup. He has some things going against him including the 5th-year issue. But he’s does so many things well, that I feel he’ll become an effective NBA player and is even a dark horse to become pretty good.
Most similar players to Demarre Carroll:
Nick Anderson, junior: .979
Matt Bonner, junior: .952
Cory Violette, senior: .942
Tom Gugliotta, junior: .938
Jasper Johnson, junior: .937
I don’t know much about these similarity scores and what they mean. I do know that it can’t be a bad thing for a likely 2nd rounder to be comped closely with a couple of solid pros like Anderson and Gugliotta.
3. Earl Clark, Louisville: Louisville had a very different group of players this year. There was no lead scorer, just a couple of guys in Clark and Williams who were terrific all-around players but poor scorers. They were supported by a freshman center and some gunners. Those two finished1-2 on the team in points, rebounds and assists. They attempted roughly 40% of the team FGs. They’re 2 of the least efficient scorers in the draft. Clark is listed as a G-F, but has more typical forward size at 6’9”. I’m tempted to put him at PF, but I’m not sure he fits there. I know he’s not a SG. Here’s a look at his career numbers:
| Earl Clark |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
.504 |
.370 |
14.7 |
9.4 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
| Sophomore |
.544 |
.227 |
15.7 |
11.4 |
3.7 |
0.6 |
| Junior |
.493 |
.326 |
16.4 |
10.1 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
He doesn’t score frequently enough for a typical prospect at any position. He rebounds well enough for a PF and his defensive numbers are OK. He became an adequate enough passer this season that playing SF shouldn’t be a problem. He’s been a good all-around player, but I have trouble seeing where he might fit in the NBA. His biggest problem is the same teammate Williams has in that he just doesn’t score often or efficiently enough. He doesn’t rebound or block shots well enough to be an energy player inside. He might be a decent perimeter defender, but those players are being asked to knock down the 3-pointer now and he’s yet to prove he can do that consistently. Here are a couple of tables showing players who might be comparable to Clark. The first is semi-successful PFs who shot less than 51% on 2-pointer as NCAA juniors:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Pat Garrity |
.513 |
.382 |
24.0 |
8.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
| Danny Ferry |
.510 |
.349 |
23.4 |
9.4 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
| Troy Murphy |
.499 |
.349 |
24.0 |
10.2 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
| Mark Bryant |
.494 |
1.000 |
21.1 |
8.9 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
| Eduardo Najera |
.450 |
.342 |
18.0 |
9.7 |
3.1 |
0.8 |
| Earl Clark |
.493 |
.326 |
16.4 |
10.1 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
Bryant is sort of the one who doesn’t belong here. He was more of a traditional PF where the rest are more like combo forwards. Bryant got his number up to 56% as a senior. The top 3 were all able to hit the 3-pointer fairly consistently and that kept them in the league. Najera stuck around for awhile as a defender/energy player. I’ve already expressed doubts over Clark’s ability to become such a player. The best thing for Clark’s career would be developing an outside shot. Next table is combo forwards who scored less than 17 P40 as juniors:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
RASB-T40 |
A/TO |
| Chris Morris |
.581 |
.333 |
17.0 |
9.1 |
12.7 |
1.1 |
| Brian Cardinal |
.551 |
.374 |
16.1 |
7.8 |
12.3 |
1.2 |
| Robert Horry |
.505 |
.337 |
15.9 |
10.8 |
14.9 |
0.8 |
| Earl Clark |
.493 |
.326 |
16.4 |
10.1 |
12.8 |
1.0 |
Clark does fit in fairly well with this group. He’s not as efficient a scorer as Morris and doesn’t have Horry’s defensive prowess. Again the ability to shoot would be a good thing for Clark to develop. Important thing to note here is Horry’s offensive numbers were very similar to Clark’s at this point. One thing about these tables is there isn’t one great player here, just some good journeymen. Horry has been a special player, because he has had some great moments. But take away a few big shots and his career has been pretty pedestrian.
I don’t see Clark becoming anything more than something similar to the players in these charts. His game doesn’t fit well in any position. He has a great size/athleticism combination going for him, but he has yet to really dominate on the court. The key for him will be developing an effective outside shot. If he can do that I suspect he’ll be able to stick around the league for awhile and have some good moments.
Most similar players to Earl Clark:
Danya Abrams, senior: .939
Sean Lampley, sophomore: .932
Trevor Wilson, senor: .931
Bobby Simmons, sophomore: .930
Monty Williams, sophomore: .930
4. Robert Dozier, Memphis: We might call him Austin Daye lite. Similar set of skills, but he gives up 2 inches in height and 2 years in age to Daye. Looking at him as a PF, he’s at .549 on 2-pointers and 9.6 R40. Close on both counts, but definitely too low for a starter. It’s probably enough for a bench player if he can add a few more skills to his mix. As a SF, he has some promise, but the fact that he’s never been a big time scorer will hurt. I would like him a lot better if he had scored a little more often and had a better history of hitting the trey before his senior year. Dozier should get a look though. While his numbers come up a little short, especially his 16.6 P40, he offers enough in the way of defense, rebounding and outside shooting that I’d think he can help some team.
Most similar players to Robert Dozier:
Jason Maxiell, senior: .964
Reggie Williams, senior: .962
Dyron Nix, senior: .960
Jeff Grayer, senior: .953
Ryan Minor, junior: .952
An interesting mix of PFs and SFs. Maxiell isn’t that close, he looks like a better 3-point shooter in these comps than he is due to being listed at .400 by going 2-5 that year. This is one of many flaws in the system I hope to have worked out. That said, the other numbers of Dozier and Maxiell do matchup well even though they’re different players.
5 & 6. Victor Claver, Parmesa Valencia and Jonas Jerebko, Angelico Bella: A couple of Europeans worth a mention. They’re similar players though Claver is a little better because of his scoring efficiency and the fact that he’s younger. Claver has pretty good potential as a scorer and Jerebko’s scoring numbers are solid enough. Both are weak rebounders and adequate defenders and passers. I have them here, because unless a foreign player really blows me away, I tend to place them between the players I generally like as prospects and the ones I feel come up a little short. If I researched it more, I suspect I would have Claver ahead of Dozier, Carroll and Clark. He might even be more appropriately listed as a SF. Either way these are a couple of decent forwards who should get called on draft night.
7. Daimon Simpson, St. Mary’s: Good player who would be a hot item if he offered just a little offense. Simpson topped the 4.0 SB40 mark and grabbed over 12 boards per 40 minutes. Both are strong PF numbers. The problems are on offense. He’s not much of a scorer and hits about 52% of his 2-pointers without much of an outside shot. As a passer he’s too erratic for SF. Another negative is his height, only 6’7”. As good as his defensive numbers are, it’s going to be hard for him to guard NBA PFs because if this. Players like Simpson who are looking to succeed as defensive/ energy specialist have to do more than play defense. They have to add something on offense like an outside shot, or at the very least some passing skills and a low number of mistakes and turnovers. Simpson offers none of that. He’s on the short side for PF and isn’t steady enough for SF and for that reason I would consider him very much a longshot to make it.
Most similar players to Daimon Simpson:
Chuck Hayes, senior: .900
Tremaine Fowlkes, junior: .889
Carlin Warley, junior: .884
Harvey Grant, junior: .869
Eric Hicks, junior: .862
I can see the Chuck Hayes comp. If the PF rotation used by Houston starts to catch on and be imitated around the league it will be a boost for the likes of Simpson.
8. Brandon Costner, North Carolina State: Led the Wolfpack in scoring as a red shirt freshman in 2007. His numbers then weren’t great, but promising enough that his career should have ended better than this. As a soph he and Ben McCauley were shoved out of the picture as JJ Hickson took over the team. This year with Hickson gone, he rebounded a little bit, but didn’t quite get back to the level of two years ago. A tough situation always makes me want to give a player something of a break in the evaluation. With Costner, he still doesn’t hold up well as a prospect. Even if I ignored his lower offensive production, he’s still just average in rebounding, defense and passing. What could save him is a decent outside shot. The fact that he can hit the trey and not get killed on the boards or defensively could get him a shot.
Most similar players to Brandon Costner:
Reyshawn Terry, junior: .959
Richard Jefferson, junior: .957
Ike Diogu, sophomore: .951
Kenny Thomas, sophomore: .950
Ronny Turiaf, junior: .946
While Jefferson has had a solid NBA career, he never had a great college season, so this isn’t necessarily a good thing. I will say that being grouped with so many journeymen should give Costner a slight boost.
9. Paul Harris, Syracuse: Harris is one of those unfortunate college players stuck playing a position he’ll never have a prayer playing in the pros. The problem is he plays PF and plays it pretty well too. Because Harris is a pretty solid producer, he played a lot of minutes there. His problem in making the transition is he’s only 6’4” and Byron Houston could fill him in on how that worked out. To Harris’ credit he has added some small player skills. He’s become a good passer and he gets a lot of steals. His outside shot still isn’t there and that’s what will likely sink his chances.
Most similar players to Paul Harris:
Bernard Robinson, senior: .948
Eduardo Najera, junior: .946
Wayne Simien, junior: .939
Junior Burrough, senior: .939
Carlin Warley, sophomore: .936
10. Jonathan Cox, Drake: Cox barely makes this list. The fact that he can rebound adequately and that he hits over 40% of his treys makes me think he has an outside chance. The defense and passing numbers are OK. Not great, but not poor enough that I’d be scared off. His 2-point pct. is kind of low, but it was pretty solid the two tears before this, so I think he can handle the inside scoring OK. He’s also a 5th-year senior.
Most similar players to Jonathan Cox:
Lavar Postell, junior: .940
Romain Sato, senior: .918
Rodney Eford, junior: .908
Aaron McGhee, senior: .903
Altron Jackson, senior: .900