The evaluation of the centers plays out something like the PFs. There are benchmarks that should be met before I consider them good prospects. There are exceptions and I’ll get into those as they apply. The main thing to know is the 2PP should be over .600, the R40 over 10.0 and the B40 over 3.0. Those are minimum numbers. The better prospects should do better in every category. Scoring frequently is nice, but not as important as it is with the other position. Possessing a 3-point shot and good passing skills never hurt, but neither skill is essential for success. Here are the numbers:
| Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Festus Ezeli |
539 |
17.4 |
10.2 |
3.5 |
0.1 |
| Eli Holman |
607 |
18.1 |
11.7 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
| Bernard James |
606 |
15.3 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
0.2 |
| Meyers Leonard |
604 |
17.6 |
10.6 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
| Fab Melo |
566 |
12.3 |
9.2 |
4.6 |
0.5 |
| Kyle O’Quinn |
610 |
19.7 |
12.8 |
3.2 |
0.5 |
| Henry Sims |
463 |
17.0 |
8.8 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
| Garrett Stutz |
572 |
21.4 |
12.9 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
| Tyler Zeller |
553 |
21.6 |
12.7 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
Like the entire 2012 draft after the top pick, this group is deep with players who will make good 2nd round picks, but offer little to like if drafted in the top 20. This group includes some typical center prospect stereotypes. Zeller’s the 4-year guy from a major program that every fan has heard about. Ezeli is the guy coming off a terrible senior year who might be a bargain. Leonard is the young guy with potential. Melo is the shot blocker. Kuzmic is the mysterious foreign player who may not show up until 2015. Etc. But they’re a bunch of players who will be 2nd or 3rd stringers in the NBA at best. Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond have already been analyzed in separate pieces. Davis is the top center available by a long shot. Drummond would be next based on his potential. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal.
Fab Melo, Syracuse: Melo is a good shot blocker. If there’s one skill I would choose for center prospects to do, blocking shots would be it. Such players have a much higher success rate than other one-skill prospects. For that reason I’m going to put him at the top of this group. Please don’t interpret this as a ringing endorsement of Melo’s NBA future either. He’s merely the most promising of a somewhat motley group of center prospects. Someone has to be at the top. I like shot blockers, so Fab is my guy.
There isn’t much else to like here though. He’s a substandard rebounder, his offense is practically non-existent and he’s a sophomore who’s as old as most seniors. He probably shouldn’t be drafted before #20. But if the question is “Which of these centers would I take first?” my answer would be Fab Melo. The reason is because he has the potential to become a pretty good NBA defender.
Ognjen Kuzmic, Bosnia and Herzegovina: Kuzmic averaged 14.1 R40 and 3.5 B40 playing in Spain. Those are numbers that make me take notice. His offense is weak, but in this group of centers his rebounding/defense places him near the top. I read a report that he signed a 4-year contract with a team in Spain. If this is true it means he won’t be of much immediate help. The flip side of this is he could be stashed overseas while salary cap and roster issues resolve themselves on a playoff contender.
Meyers Leonard, Illinois: Leonard seems likely to be one of the first of this group taken, so he deserves a closer look. Since I like to compare players with similar players from the past as a way of evaluating them, here’s a look at Leonard against past sophomore centers with a 2PP close to his .604. That’s his strongest stat, so that’s the one I used.
| NCAA Sophomore |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon |
611 |
20.3 |
16.7 |
7.5 |
| Cole Aldrich |
598 |
19.7 |
14.6 |
3.6 |
| Tim Duncan |
594 |
18.4 |
13.7 |
4.6 |
| Bryant Reeves |
622 |
24.0 |
12.3 |
1.6 |
| Kevin Willis |
596 |
16.7 |
11.9 |
1.6 |
| Joel Przybilla |
613 |
18.3 |
10.7 |
5.1 |
| Michael Southall |
610 |
18.3 |
10.7 |
3.6 |
| Randolph Morris |
608 |
21.8 |
9.8 |
1.9 |
| Jason Lawson |
595 |
17.9 |
9.3 |
3.6 |
| Steve Hamer |
595 |
21.6 |
9.0 |
1.6 |
| Bill Wennington |
605 |
11.1 |
8.9 |
1.9 |
| Olden Polynice |
603 |
15.2 |
8.9 |
1.3 |
| Brad Daugherty |
610 |
15.4 |
8.1 |
1.4 |
| Dave Hoppen |
599 |
22.6 |
7.8 |
0.5 |
| Meyers Leonard |
604 |
17.6 |
10.6 |
2.4 |
I listed the players in order of rebound rate, because there seems to be a dividing line between 10-11 R40 for players who were more successful. That line will become more defined next year after Cole Aldrich has his break out season. As for Leonard, he’s on the line. The three successful players below 10.5, Wennington, Polynice and Daugherty all posted their numbers in the pre-shot clock era, so I’m wary about holding up their careers as something Leonard might emulate. Leonard looks kind of ordinary next to this group. His numbers are similar to Przybilla only if you ignore blocks, which I can’t.
I have to consider Leonard a longshot to become more than a reserve. It looks like he has decent offensive potential, but the defense/rebounding skills are marginal and that has always been more important for centers. I could see using a late first rounder on him, because he’s younger than most and offers some upside. Personally I would wait for round 2.
Kyle O’Quinn, Norfolk State: O’Quinn is the only player here who passes every statistical benchmark, so I have to give him props for that. This is not an easy thing to do and it says O’Quinn is a prospect who deserves to be drafted. The fact that he’s posted such numbers for three years now and has flashed a decent 3-point shot adds to his value.
What brings him down a notch or two is that these numbers were posted at a small college. That isn’t as impressive had he done this on a bigger stage. That reservation aside, O’Quinn looks like a good get in round two. He has shown ability offensively, defensively and on the boards. He has enough potential that his ceiling is that of a decent rotation player.
Dusan Cantekin, Serbia: Cantekin hit 63% of his shots and posted an 11.8 R40 playing for Mega Vizura this past season. He’s also 7’4”. He didn’t look like much of a shot blocker and he’s 22, so the upside isn’t there. He doesn’t look like he’ll become a productive player on the level of Pekovic or Asik, but there’s enough here that he merits a second round look.
Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt: Rough year for Ezeli. He was one of the top center prospects going in, but a suspension and injuries brought his numbers way down. This table shows how far he fell from last year:
| Festus Ezeli |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| 2010-11 |
588 |
22.1 |
10.7 |
4.4 |
0.1 |
| Nov-Dec |
471 |
18.0 |
11.3 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
| January |
468 |
14.1 |
11.8 |
4.4 |
0.3 |
| February |
619 |
21.8 |
6.4 |
3.9 |
0.1 |
| March |
526 |
15.1 |
13.2 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
Even though he was a better player in 2011, he was still just a marginal prospect because of his scary low A/TO. He’s even more marginal following a rough senior year. In his defense, Ezeli did improve after a late start, but never really got it together. He also still has that turnover problem that makes him seem too mistake-prone to have much of an impact at the next level. His defense should get him a look late in round 2.
Tyler Zeller, North Carolina: When a draft is thin at the top like 2012, marginal prospects are more likely to stand out in combines and individual workouts as teams desperately search for help. I think that’s probably the reason Zeller has moved close to the lottery in the latest mocks. Or perhaps teams are hoping that drafting Tyler somehow gives them an edge on landing his younger brother Cody next year. Whatever the reason, it certainly isn’t because he’s been a dominant college center. While he has shown some improvement, this is the first year he’s posted any number that made him look like even a decent prospect.
| Tyler Zeller |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Freshman |
472 |
15.3 |
9.7 |
0.9 |
| Sophomore |
521 |
20.6 |
10.1 |
1.9 |
| Junior |
547 |
21.2 |
9.8 |
1.6 |
| Senior |
553 |
21.6 |
12.7 |
2.0 |
I’m always somewhat suspicious of players who finally step up as seniors. It’s better than not stepping up at all, but the best prospects are there from the start more often than not. In the case of Zeller, he only stepped up his rebounding. His offense remains inefficient and his shot blocking is still poor. Tyler Zeller has the numbers of a late 2nd-rounder at best. Drafting him in round one, let alone the lottery would be a major mistake.
Bernard James, Florida State: James is a nice story. He served in Iraq, during which time he grew from 6’5” to 6’10”. After the army he headed to junior college, then Florida State as their starting center for the past couple of seasons. He’s 27, which makes him older than 8-year NBA veterans Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. That means even if he does make it, his usefulness as a player has a very tight window.
His stats were better as a junior when he averaged only 21 minutes per game. Increasing his minutes by 33% hurt both his efficiency and production and that has to be considered a pretty big negative. The positive side of his ledger is that he’s probably more mature than most of this group, what with the life experiences he’s had. He’s good enough to be an end of the bench big guy, so a late round 2 pick is about his place.
Garrett Stutz, Wichita State: He flashed some talent for 3 years, but put things together nicely as a senior and got himself on the map as a prospect. Stutz has a nice outside shot, which is always a plus for a big. He’s also a decent enough rebounder and has shown some good passing skills during his career. One big negative is he had trouble staying on the court. His senior number of 24.6 minutes per game was by far the best of his career, despite the fact that he didn’t foul at a high rate and generally posted strong per minute numbers. It bothers me that he spent so much time on the bench. Just looking at per minute numbers, he’s a better prospect than Zeller. But the fact that he posted these numbers in low minutes brings him down a few notches. He has shown enough to merit a look.
Eli Holman, Detroit: Holman has some big negatives, like being only 6’8”, being a 5th-year senior and exceeding 3.0 B40 only in his sophomore season. He does have 3 seasons over 60% on 2-pointers, is a solid rebounder and has a 7’4” wingspan. He doesn’t look like much other than another big body to have around as a 3rd string big. Rates a look as a UFA, but that’s all.
Henry Sims, Georgetown: Sims’ numbers are terrible for a prospect. I include him for a couple of reasons. The first is he’s a very good passer. That’s a nice skill for a center to have. The next is Georgetown big men under Thompson III may be experiencing a similar phenomenon to guards playing for Ben Howland at UCLA where the system suppresses their numbers. Both Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe have outplayed their college stats. Sims could do the same. Because Sims is nowhere near the player Hibbert and Monroe were in college, I’d test this theory via the UFA route.