The 2013 PG class looks a little thin right now. There is no returning player who looks like a sure thing as a prospect and the incoming freshman class, which isn’t included here, looks weak. The class was hurt more when TJ McConnell, who may have been the top returning PG prospect, transferred from Duquense to Arizona and will sit out the year because of it. He’s one to keep in mind as a bust out star for 2014 though.
Back to the present, there are three that rate above the crowd going into 2013, Michael Carter-Williams, Nate Wolters and Aaron Craft. There are also a few still-young phenoms who had weak starts, but are certainly capable of improvement. After that there are several juniors and seniors who would be called the usual suspects. Players who have flashed some nice skills, but need to develop more before they’re serious prospects.
It is worth noting that the top PG drafted in 2012, Damian Lillard, was barely a blip on most draft geek radars, including mine, at this time last year. That illustrates how quickly things can turn during one college season. With that in mind, let’s not take these rankings too seriously until the games start and statistics start to pile up in a few months.
Here are the numbers. Players are listed in a very early, very fluid ranking. I’ll get into the incoming freshmen later and integrate them into the rankings once I’ve seen the numbers they put up against NCAA competition.
| Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
A/TO |
| Michael Carter-Williams |
450 |
389 |
10.4 |
8.0 |
3.0 |
9.7 |
3.4 |
| Aaron Craft |
554 |
359 |
10.9 |
5.7 |
3.1 |
7.3 |
2.2 |
| Nate Wolters |
515 |
241 |
23.5 |
6.6 |
1.9 |
7.7 |
2.7 |
| Lorenzo Brown |
476 |
351 |
14.5 |
7.2 |
2.1 |
7.9 |
2.0 |
| Phil Pressey |
467 |
365 |
13.0 |
8.0 |
2.7 |
6.9 |
2.6 |
| Ryan Boatright |
443 |
377 |
14.0 |
5.4 |
1.6 |
6.3 |
1.8 |
| Tim Frazier |
440 |
314 |
20.7 |
6.8 |
2.6 |
8.0 |
1.6 |
| Isaiah Canaan |
481 |
456 |
22.3 |
4.3 |
1.7 |
5.7 |
1.9 |
| Kerron Johnson |
599 |
308 |
18.7 |
7.1 |
1.9 |
6.2 |
2.2 |
| Trey Burke |
490 |
348 |
17.6 |
5.4 |
1.1 |
5.7 |
1.7 |
| Myck Kabongo |
429 |
316 |
12.2 |
6.6 |
1.6 |
5.5 |
1.7 |
| Pierre Jackson |
502 |
408 |
17.7 |
7.5 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
1.7 |
| DJ Cooper |
394 |
307 |
17.8 |
6.9 |
2.8 |
7.4 |
2.0 |
| Shabazz Napier |
418 |
355 |
15.0 |
6.7 |
1.9 |
6.3 |
2.1 |
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse: He’s still very much a mystery man. His non-scoring numbers were dominant in very low minutes during his freshman season. But the majority of those minutes came early against teams from lesser conferences. That makes him promising, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll perform under the spotlight of starting and running the offense of a high-profile program. Because he flashed dominant ability, I have him at the top. Admittedly his career arc is still very wide, but he has the highest upside of any college PG right now. If there were alternate realities in NCAA basketball, I’d like to see a replay of the 2012 season with Carter-Williams and Dion Waiters playing 1000 minutes each as the Orange starting backcourt.
Aaron Craft, Ohio State: Everything about Craft looks solid other than the fact he doesn’t score frequently enough. With Sullinger and Buford heading for the pros, Craft should get more opportunities to score. If he can up his scoring totals to the 18-20 P40 range and keep his other numbers the same, Aaron Craft will be a very good NBA prospect.
Nate Wolters, South Dakota State: If small college PG Damian Lillard can make himself the 6th pick in the draft in his 4th college season, I have to think Wolters, who has more impressive numbers, is at least a potential 1st-rounder. The biggest concern is his 3-point percentage went from .408 as a soph, down to .241 last year. That’s something he’ll need to fix.
Ryan Boatright, Connecticut; Trey Burke, Michigan; Myck Kabongo, Texas: Three sophs whose hype still dwarfs their numbers. Because they all have talent, they merit a mention. All need to improve their games substantially before I would consider them serious prospects. All are still young enough that I can buy into their potential a little. Kabongo seems to be getting the most offseason hype and would appear to have to best opportunity for improvement with Brown having left. Boatright should benefit from getting his tough freshman year over with, but still has to share the position with Napier.
Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State; Phil Pressey, Missouri; Tim Frazier, Penn State; Isaiah Canaan, Murray State; Kerron Johnson, Belmont; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; DJ Cooper, Ohio; Shabazz Napier, Connecticut: These are all juniors and seniors that have flashed some ability, but also have some serious negatives in their numbers. In most cases the problem is inefficient scoring. Once a player gets two college seasons under his belt, potential has to turn into production. I like both Brown and Pressey right now as potential steady, defense-oriented reserves. For that reason they’d be considered the top 2 in this group. Jackson becomes a decent prospect if he gets his TOs down. Canaan has some promise as a 3-point specialist. The others all have flashed some decent skills, but come up short as prospects. All are capable enough of improvement that they deserve a mention going into the season.
Ryan Harrow, Kentucky: I’m not a huge fan of Harrow, because his 2011 numbers at NC State weren’t at all impressive. I thought he deserved a mention, because he’ll be playing for a coach who has a great recent record of getting PGs drafted in round one. Because Harrow is the age of most juniors, I won’t buy too much into his upside.