While I’m not excited about the returning back court prospects, I do like this group of SFs. I like this group because of the depth in players who are close to being solid prospects, but just need to add some offense or defense to the skill set. I prefer the guys who already play the defense, hence the listing of the likes of Roberson, Moser and Hill ahead of mock draft darlings Thomas and Nash.
Here are the numbers. I’m showing Bowers’ numbers from the 2011 season, as he was out all of 2012. Players are listed in order of how I would rank them as NBA prospects going into the season. It’s early so don’t take the “rankings” too seriously just yet. As with the other positions, the freshmen will be added to the list when I see some college stats.
| Player |
2PP |
3PP |
AFG% |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
ASB40 |
| Otto Porter |
611 |
226 |
550 |
13.6 |
9.5 |
1.4 |
5.9 |
| Andre Roberson |
537 |
380 |
543 |
15.4 |
14.8 |
0.7 |
5.7 |
| Mike Moser |
507 |
331 |
504 |
17.3 |
13.0 |
0.8 |
6.5 |
| Robert Covington |
572 |
453 |
610 |
22.8 |
10.0 |
0.6 |
5.6 |
| Solomon Hill |
552 |
394 |
565 |
16.0 |
9.6 |
1.1 |
5.1 |
| Doug McDermott |
633 |
486 |
654 |
28.4 |
10.2 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
| Ian Hummer |
490 |
317 |
495 |
21.0 |
9.6 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
| Brendan Dawson |
586 |
0 |
580 |
16.4 |
8.8 |
0.7 |
5.2 |
| Rodney Williams |
615 |
309 |
590 |
15.5 |
7.1 |
1.1 |
5.7 |
| CJ Leslie |
534 |
286 |
530 |
19.9 |
9.9 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
| Deshaun Thomas |
599 |
345 |
570 |
20.0 |
6.8 |
0.7 |
3.8 |
| Adonis Thomas |
515 |
405 |
539 |
14.6 |
5.3 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
| Laurence Bowers |
544 |
0 |
529 |
18.5 |
9.7 |
1.0 |
6.9 |
| LeBryan Nash |
436 |
235 |
418 |
17.9 |
6.7 |
0.6 |
3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otto Porter, Georgetown: After a promising freshman season, Porter tops this list. As with a lot of these players the key for Porter will be how well he handles the role of being his team’s top option on offense. His defense and passing appear to be solid. As a sophomore his upside gives him a slight edge on Roberson and Moser. I also have a bias toward Hoyas because they have shown a tendency to outperform their college numbers in the pros.
Andre Roberson, Colorado: The returning SFs are predominately made up of two types. The first is all-around players who need to score more frequently and/or efficiently before they’re considered serious prospects, like Roberson. The other type is the young player who came in as a hyped prospect but struggled to live up to the hype.
Roberson is a good candidate to bust out as a star in 2013. He’s listed as a PF in some places probably because of his rebounding prowess, but is the size of a SF so that’s his position. He’ll be a junior and has been slow to develop, but should get his shot this year. He’s a solid defender. He has been a very efficient scorer with a low number of opportunities. The concerns include whether he can continue the efficiency and if his marginal passing skills will improve any when he’s in the role of the top option.
Mike Moser, UNLV: Similar to Roberson, but not as efficient a scorer. Moser missed a year due to a transfer from UCLA, so he’s the age of most seniors. This transfer takes him down a few notches as a prospect. Moser has big man skills, but is trapped in the body of a wing player. His incredible defense and rebounding numbers suggest serious athleticism. If his offense improves, he’ll be an excellent prospect.
The Rebels situation is in a bit of flux going into the season, so Moser’s role could change in 2013. He had played a lot on the inside as a soph last year. There are two prominent transfers, Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith, coming in. Both play in the front court, as does highly touted freshman Anthony Bennett. The impending arrival of these 3 could affect Moser’s rebounding, which was his biggest strength. Birch is ineligible until late December and Smith’s eligibility for 2012-13 is still in doubt. Bennett is a freshman and no one is really sure about those guys until they actually play at this level.
Moser is a player needs to step it up offensively and might be playing a different role than the one he played in 2012. That seems like a tougher than normal situation. He flashed some terrific potential in his first year as a Runnin’ Rebel, so the feeling here is he’ll be up to the challenge.
Robert Covington, Tennessee State: Stepped up as a junior last year and made himself into a serious prospect. If he repeats this season as a senior, he’s a first round pick. His only weakness is passing. Concern is he’s an undersized PF, but he can drill the trey better than any player listed here other than McDermott and that will help.
Solomon Hill, Arizona: He’s in a similar situation to Moser in that newcomers to the team could change the dynamic for him. The newcomers are 3 of the top 20 players in the freshmen class, all big men. As is the case with Moser the question will be whether Hill can emerge as the leader of a young team, or if he’ll get buried in his final college year under the wave of talented newcomers.
Doug McDermott, Creighton: Incredibly efficient scorer and strong rebounder, McDermott has some of the worst defensive numbers I’ve ever seen in a prospect. He’s also a poor passer. Usually such numbers doom a prospect no matter how great their other skills are. In McDermott’s case he’s such a good offensive player that I suspect there’s a role for him somewhere.
Branden Dawson, Michigan State: A sophomore coming off a freshman season of moderate promise. He’s also coming off ACL surgery in March, so an adjustment year seems likely. Dawson is worthy of a mention here, but more of a name for 2014 after he’s another year removed from surgery that often takes a year to fully recover from.
Ian Hummer, Princeton: Ivy-leaguer of some promise. His efficiency suffered when he took on a larger offensive load as a junior last year. The good thing that happened in Ian Hummer’s world during his junior year is he stepped up his offense from behind the arc for the first time in his career and hit .317. Hardly the 2nd coming of Steve Kerr, but enough to boost his stock another notch.
Rodney Williams, Minnesota: Another player with a nice all-around game who needs to score more frequently. He’s a senior on a team that returns most of the core, so it seems likely his role will be similar to previous seasons. Best case scenario for him is to improve on his weak outside shooting while keeping the rest of his game strong.
CJ Leslie, North Carolina State: He looks too much like an undersized PF to me. Coming off two years where he has been a solid, productive college player, but something less than a prospect. Leslie needs to improve his passing and his outside shooting before I can consider him much of a prospect.
Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State: Dominant scoring potential, but with weak defensive and rebounding numbers. Generally such players don’t make it as I detailed in the Harrison Barnes piece from the 2012 draft preview. Barnes will be an interesting test case for low ASB40 players. I do like Thomas’s offense, but I’d like it more if he could light it up from the outside like McDermott has.
Adonis Thomas, Memphis: He came in as a top 10 prospect, but struggled in 455 minutes before an injury ended his season. The best thing I can say is Thomas flashed some offensive potential, topping .500 on 2-pointers and .400 on treys. The rest of his game was extremely weak. He gets points for being highly-touted, but he has a long way to go.
Laurence Bowers, Missouri: He’ll be a 5th-year senior coming off ACL surgery. That’s a killer combo for any prospect. Before the injury he only needed to add an outside shot to his arsenal to become a decent prospect. Bowers was a good enough player in his first 3 seasons that he’s worth watching, but there are a lot of factors that just are not in his favor.
LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State: Another sophomore who offers more in reputation than production. He needs to improve every part of his game to become a serious prospect.
Dario Saric, Croatia: I’m not ranking Saric at the bottom here, but thought he was worth a mention. I mention him because he’s 6’10” and just 18 years old. There’s a lot to think about with this guy and I’ll take the same approach with him as I would with incoming freshmen. I’m going to wait until I see more stats at a higher level before I form an opinion. His stats in lower leagues have some good and some bad. I suspect PF could be his eventual position because of his size, but his stats right now suggest SF.