This is a pretty good group… potentially of course. Like the SFs there’s a lot of depth here. It’s a good mix of promising sophs and college veterans with one last chance to sparkle. With the incoming freshman class also being deep in big men, 2013 should be a good year for the bigs, which means a strong year for college basketball and a deep 2013 draft.
I’m going to adopt the term “stretch 4” to replace combo forward. Combo suggests they play both SF and PF. In reality such players are almost exclusively PF. Stretch 4 better describes what such a player does. Their value is in their ability to stretch the defense with their 3-point ability, but still have enough ability to rebound and guard opposing PFs adequately. I’m not certain who coined the term, but I like it and will use it from now on.
Here are the numbers. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, though it’s early and not too much should be read into this.
| Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
| Tony Mitchell |
599 |
19.7 |
13.8 |
0.6 |
5.2 |
| Rudy Gobert |
794 |
13.6 |
10.8 |
0.2 |
4.6 |
| Jarnell Stokes |
548 |
15.0 |
11.6 |
0.3 |
3.6 |
| Cody Zeller |
623 |
21.5 |
9.0 |
0.8 |
3.5 |
| Tashaun Thomas |
582 |
15.0 |
11.5 |
0.7 |
4.2 |
| Rakim Christmas |
573 |
9.6 |
10.2 |
0.3 |
3.9 |
| Khem Birch |
571 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
0.0 |
5.7 |
| James McAdoo |
434 |
14.4 |
9.2 |
0.4 |
2.9 |
| Mason Plumlee |
572 |
15.4 |
12.7 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
| Patric Young |
618 |
15.6 |
9.8 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
| Jackie Carmichael |
534 |
19.6 |
13.6 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
| Jamelle Hagins |
`548 |
15.7 |
14.0 |
0.4 |
4.6 |
| Trevor Mbakwe |
604 |
19.7 |
12.9 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
| Arselan Kazemi |
596 |
16.3 |
13.9 |
1.1 |
4.1 |
| Matt Staff |
547 |
20.0 |
11.9 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
| Chase Behanan |
560 |
14.3 |
11.2 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
| Julian Boyd |
578 |
23.6 |
12.7 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
| Elias Harris |
525 |
17.7 |
11.5 |
0.7 |
2.3 |
Tony Mitchell PF, North Texas: I had him the 2nd best college prospect behind Anthony Davis for most of last year. His rebounding and shot blocking numbers are stellar. He was also efficient as a scorer, just missing .600 on 2-pointers and hitting .439 on 3-pointers. eHe was also solid as a scorer/ H Two things concern me. As a scorer he was promising, but faded some as the year progressed. It is also a concern that he missed his first year due to academic issues and had to transfer from his original school, Missouri, without ever having played there. That doesn’t mean he can’t play, but a year missed is never a good thing. Those concerns aside, he’s a dominant player with NBA size and length. I expect Mitchell to be one of the top 5 picks in the 2013 draft and go on to a solid NBA career.
Rudy Gobert, France: His numbers, especially the 2PP are very impressive. The numbers above were posted in the French league where he played less than 14 minutes per game. In 6 Euroleague games he shot just .455, but with better rebounding and defensive numbers. The Euroleague games were for a total of less than 100 minutes, so not a lot should be taken from that. Gobert is a player with great length and dominant stats. At this very early point in his career he looks like he has a chance to be a good one.
Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee: Stokes is under the radar now, but this is a player to watch. He joined the Vols in January after completing his senior year of high school early. In 2013 he’ll be the age of a college freshman. In half a season, while most kids his age were finishing up high school, he put up solid numbers across the board, including good efforts against Kentucky, UConn and Vanderbilt, all teams with solid front lines. It’s worth noting that his numbers were put up without the benefit of a weak non-conference schedule that almost always inflates numbers. So the numbers you see for Stokes should be expected to improve quite a bit in 2013 if for no other reason than he’ll have a non-conference schedule to fatten them up.
Cody Zeller, Indiana: Zeller is listed as a center in most places, but I have him as a PF for now, because he just grades out better here. He hasn’t flashed the shot blocking skills necessary to play center. Zeller is an excellent offensive player, scoring often and efficiently. The problem is he’s a weak rebounder. Looking at players who were frequent and efficient scorers, but weak rebounders as freshmen, many more top 10 busts come up than all-stars. Players like Ike Diogu, Armon Gilliam, JR Reid, Brandan Wright and Samaki Walker all had a similar profile as freshmen. Other weak rebounders who emerged as scorers later in their careers include early first-round busts Stromile Swift and Marcus Fizer. The point I’m trying to make is big guys who are poor rebounders have a tendency to bust as a pros if drafted in the top 10. This is good information to have about a player like Zeller who is currently listed at #1 in more mocks than any player other than Nerlens Noel.
Tashawn Thomas, Houston: Thomas is a player coming off a very solid, but anonymous freshman year. He was a solid defender, though his blocks took a dive as the season progressed. He does need to get bigger, as he is listed at 6’8” 215 lb. He’s still young, so putting on 20-30 lbs. doesn’t seem like the problem for him that it might be for a senior. Other than the size issue and the fact that he faded some, Thomas has few weaknesses in his game.
Rakim Christmas, Syracuse: Raw, but flashed some potential. Most impressive was his defense. That’s the best skill a raw, young player can have, so Christmas would seem to have some nice upside. At a school like Syracuse it’s difficult to say whether he’ll get more opportunities or not as a soph. Fab Melo has left, but freshman DaJuan Coleman is arriving, so Christmas could find himself in the same role he was last year. He also suffers from the same weak rebounding malady that has me so down on Cody Zeller, but doesn’t possess Zeller’s offensive prowess.
Khem Birch, UNLV: A highly touted freshmen last year, Birch left Pitt after 10 games. He’ll miss the first part of the season, but should get some big minutes once he’s eligible. His departure from Pitt involved him blasting his ex-teammates. That shows some immaturity and combined with the fact that he transferred in the first place isn’t a good omen for his prospects. Right now Khem Birch is a young player with promising numbers put up in a small number of minutes against weak, non-conference competition. If he shuts his mouth, works hard and plays ball he could emerge as a surprise.
James McAdoo, North Carolina: Another darling of the mocks. While I can understand the appeal of Zeller, I just don’t get why there’s so much love for McAdoo. He did show some mild improvement in March, but was hardly the second coming of his Uncle Bob. The improvement certainly didn’t merit the quick ushering of him into the top 5 prospects in all of college ball that has occurred. The good thing for him is he’s going to get a chance to shine. Carolina’s starting front line has headed to the pros and there is no top-ranked freshman big guy coming in.
Mason Plumlee, Duke: I’m not sure if he’ll stay in the Mason role with Marshall moving right to the Miles role. He could move into the Miles role, while Marshall fills Mason’s old role. Either way, he’ll likely remain the low volume/high efficiency scorer with solid rebounding and shaky defense.
Patric Young, Florida: He’s in the same boat as Zeller and Christmas. He does some things well, but his poor rebounding stands out as a big red flag.H
Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State: A marginal prospect who needs to defend better. It is worth noting that his defensive numbers were a much more impressive 4.5 SB40 as a freshman in limited minutes. If he can get back close to that level and continue to improve his offense, he’ll be a prospect worth watching.
Jamelle Hagins, Delaware: Hagins stepped up his game enough as a junior that he’s worth watching. The main improvement was to his offense, though that’s still the weakest part of his game. He’s also undersized, but put up some very strong rebounding and defensive numbers.
Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota: He had a solid statistical year as a soph in 2011 and was headed for another in 2012 before an injury ended his season. He has had some run-ins with the law and will be 24 by the time draft day 2013 gets here. Those are two big negatives. Best case is a solid 2013 season gets him into round 2.
Arselan Kazemi, Rice: Kazemi has some potential as an energy player. I’d like him a lot more if he blocked more shots. His high SB40 is mostly driven by steals. But any player with numbers like this is worth watching.
The Stretch Fours
Matt Staff, Texas State: Flashed some potential as a stretch 4, by hitting .429 on 56 trey attempts this past year. With decent rebounding and barely adequate defense, he has enough of a skill set to merit a look. I’d like to see him keep up the .400+ on over 100 attempts before I go too overboard on him.
Chane Behanan, Louisville: His numbers are OK, but not great. Defense is especially weak. What I find interesting in his numbers is he launched 36 treys, making only 6 of them. The fact that he took so many with so little success, tells me his shooting ability is better than what he showed. That would make him a decent stretch 4, depending on how good a shooter he actually is.
Julian Boyd, LIU: Another player with stretch 4 potential. Boyd will be a 5th-year senior in 2013. His defense is weak, but he’s a solid rebounder who scores efficiently from inside and out.
Elias Harris, Gonzaga: I had considered him more of a very marginal SF prospect for 3 seasons, but last year he rebounded well enough to put himself in the discussion as a stretch 4.