Kenneth Faried was the find of the historically weak 2011 draft. He went from Morehead State to starting PF for the Nuggets. In his second year he’s top 10 in the league in rebounds, rebounding pct, and FG pct. His dunks have become must see You Tube viewing. While I can’t say we’ll look back in 20 years and consider Kenneth Faried the best player to come out of the 2011 draft, he is the early leader in career win shares.
Faried isn’t alone in having been a bargain as a small college PF. A trend in the NBA draft over the past 30 years is small college power forwards have been a heck of a bargain. Here’s a look at some small college and mid-major PFs that were draft bargains going back to 1980. The redraft column gives an idea of where each player would have gone had there been a redraft based on career production. The number reflects where each player ranks in his draft class in career win shares. The redraft number probably isn’t completely accurate in each case. That’s not important though. The point is that all these players were wildly undervalued going into the draft.
|
Year |
Player | College |
Drafted |
Redraft |
|
1980 |
Larry Smith | Alcorn State |
24 |
5 |
|
1980 |
Kurt Rambis | Santa Clara |
58 |
6 |
|
1981 |
Frank Brickowski | Penn State |
57 |
15 |
|
1985 |
Karl Malone | Louisiana Tech |
13 |
1 |
|
1986 |
Dennis Rodman | SE Oklahoma St |
27 |
2 |
|
1988 |
Anthony Mason | Tennessee St |
53 |
2 |
|
1990 |
Anthony Davis | UTEP |
45 |
5 |
|
1992 |
PJ Brown | Louisiana Tech |
29 |
3 |
|
1992 |
Popeye Jones | Murray St |
41 |
19 |
|
1996 |
Ben Wallace | Virginia Union |
n/a |
5 |
|
1996 |
Malik Rose | Drexel |
44 |
17 |
|
2007 |
Paul Millsap | Louisiana Tech |
47 |
3 |
|
2011 |
Kenneth Faried | Morehead State |
22 |
1 |
I kept this to small and mid-major colleges. Penn State competed in the Atlantic 10 before joining the Big 10 in 1990, so Brickowski qualifies. Not all small college PFs were bargains over this time either. Bill Garnett, Tellis Frank, Randy White, Carlos Rogers and Gary Trent were all small college PFs drafted in the top half of round one and none experienced much NBA success. In the case of top 10 picks Charles Oakley and Vin Baker, the experts got it right. Jason Thompson is another recent draftee worth a mention. He was drafted 12th in the deep 2008 draft. It was probably a tad high in retrospect, but he was hardly a bust.
I can’t say why there was an 11-year gap in such occurrences between 1996 and 2007. The off the top of my head theory would be that the major colleges became better at identifying talent and players previously destined for small colleges were recruited by the majors. Another theory is the influx of foreign pushed such players out of the draft completely. It was also a time of players heading straight to the pros from high school, but I can’t see where this would have been a factor.
Millsap and Faried have started this trend all over again and it makes sense for me to keep an eye out for such players. I look for players who are ridiculously effective rebounders, score at an efficient rate and get a lot of steals and blocks. Because I’m focusing on small college players here, similar players like Jack Cooley and Arselan Kazemi aren’t included. I also omitted Tony Mitchell of North Texas, because he’s known quantity, already likely to be drafted in the top 10. I was looking at players who are toiling somewhat anonymously. The list below shows a group of some small college PFs flashing some NBA potential early in the season. Players are commented on in loose order of what I would consider their prospect ranking at this early stage.
| Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
| OD Anosike |
577 |
14.6 |
14.2 |
2.1 |
| Jamelle Hagins |
606 |
15.8 |
16.3 |
3.8 |
| Jordan Reves |
526 |
12.9 |
14.4 |
3.9 |
| Michael Kessens |
580 |
17.1 |
15.0 |
4.9 |
| Ed Daniel |
558 |
21.1 |
15.5 |
5.7 |
| TaShawn Thomas |
515 |
21.0 |
13.6 |
4.0 |
| Jordan Clarke |
600 |
16.8 |
13.6 |
3.1 |
| Jyles Smith |
250 |
3.1 |
11.9 |
7.3 |
| Michale Kyser |
419 |
8.4 |
9.8 |
6.8 |
TaShawn Thomas, Houston: I’m not sure if Houston, competing in Conference USA, qualifies as a mid-major or not. I do know that Thomas is a pretty impressive young prospect. I liked him a lot as a freshman last year and he has picked up where he left off. Scoring is his weakness, but he’s only a sophomore.
Jamelle Hagins, Delaware: He’s the most likely player in this group to be wearing an NBA uniform next year. He’s a senior with a solid history of production coming into 2013. If he can keep his 2PP over or near .600, it would be huge for him, as scoring efficiency has been the weak spot in his game. His numbers so far in 2013 have been posted against one of the tougher early schedules in the country, so I don’t expect him to fade too much as the season progresses.
Jordan Reves, Texas-Arlington: Reves is a senior who is getting 30+ minutes per game for the first time in his career. His first 3 seasons featured terrific per minute numbers in rebounds, steals and blocks. He’s also been a solid scorer, with a 2PP well over .500 every year. His court time had been limited by foul trouble. So far he has corrected that problem this season.
Ed Daniel, Murray State: Similar to Reves in that he’s a senior coming off 3 reasonably productive, but foul-prone seasons. So far he has the fouling under control and is seeing more court time because of it. His rebounding has been up and down during his career. So far in the 2013 season he’s been an excellent boarder and he’ll need to keep that up.
Jordan Clarke, Drake: A 5th-year senior who is like the rest of the crowd here. His first 3 years were marked by solid production. He played limited minutes because of a propensity for fouling. As a senior he’s been kicking butt and fouling less. His NBA chances will hinge on whether or not he can keep it up. Unlike some of the others his defensive strength is he’s more of a ball hawk than a shot blocker. That’s not a good thing, but not a fatal flaw either. The 5th-year senior thing is also a hindrance to his chances.
Jyles Smith, Savannah St: His .250 2PP is an early season anomaly. His career number is around .500 and it should be there or better by season’s end. Smith is a junior who has struggled with fouls and that hasn’t been corrected. He’s where Reves and Daniel were a year ago. A very capable PF who needs to cut down the fouls.
Michael Kessens, Longwood: Longwood freshman PF who is off to a great start. Way early for him. He could go either way at this point, but seems unlikely to enter the 2013 draft. Small college players rarely enter the draft early, so probably best make Kessens a player to watch for 2016, unless he really busts out.
OD Anosike, Siena: Good PF name and a great rebounder. Unfortunately his defensive numbers haven’t added up over his career. If he can fix that in this, his senior season, he’ll be drafted. I’m never optimistic about a player improving his defensive numbers, but it isn’t unheard of.
Michale Kyser, Louisiana Tech: Kyser is a sophomore who is a ways away from being a prospect. He’s a great shot blocker, but the rest of his game needs work. He plays at Louisiana Tech though, which is basically mid-major PF University, boasting Karl Malone, PJ Brown, Paul Millsap and top 10 bust Randy White as alums. That alone gives him some cred. Whether he’s the next Karl Malone or another Randy White, he is a Louisiana Tech Bulldog and that has meant something.