Hoops Analyst

This season I predicted the records a little differently. I still used the same process of taking production from the previous 2 seasons and adjusting for things like age and circumstance. The difference is I gave myself more latitude to change records that just looked wrong. I did this because things can change during the season. Last year two trades, one silly the other sensible, changed the balance of power in the West. So while the Cavs may not be as strong as the Pistons and Celtics right now, logic dictates they’re going to use some expiring contracts to make a move to improve and I adjusted their projected record to reflect such. I also tried to factor in things like coaching situations, teams coming off surprising/disappointing seasons and just a general gut feeling I have about each team. So while Chicago finished quite well after the numbers were run, questions about their chemistry compelled me to drop their win total. Likewise Miami’s thin roster had them winning 36 games in this system, but the assumption that such glaring weaknesses would be addressed during the season made the decision to up their total wins easy.

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The Western Conference powers have been gradually shifting.  The old powers seem to be fading but still dangerous and the new power brokers that emerged in the 2007-08 playoffs look pretty significant too.  I happen to agree with the opinion put out by David Stern and others that the West has regressed a bit against the East.  No longer are the best teams clearly in the West.  In fact, the tough teams are getting more evenly distributed as the Detroit/Boston duo is as tough as any two teams out West.  Top to bottom, however, the West is still better.  In the end, believe that NBA title will come back to the West.  Let’s take a look… 

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This felt like one of the quicker off seasons we’ve had and now all of sudden a new NBA season is upon us.  What has changed in these four months since the Celtics beat the Lakers?  Not too much really.  There haven’t been too many changes in roster, Elton Brand being the notable exception.  The real change is in time.  How have four months changed the teams?  Are the Celtics too old to be prohibitive favorites?  Are the Pistons crumbling?  Is LeBron at his peak?  Really, the East boils down to Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Orlando.  Boston and Detroit are the favorites and the other three have an outside hope of surprising.  Most everyone else, is on fringes of a first round exit and the lottery.  Let’s take a look at how the divisions should shake out…

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