Playoffthoughts

1.    Finals Preview: On paper, Cavs-Spurs seems like a mismatch.  Yes, the Cavs are playing very well.  Yes, the Cavs are 2-0 against the Spurs.  But the Spurs are playing at a really high level and the Cavs are weaker at almost every position.  Can we really gleam the winning formula the Cavs two wins against the Spurs?  In fact, the first game was the second game of the season and the later meeting right after New Years (January 2nd).  Here is the recap of those two games:

-November 3, 2006: Cavs@Spurs, Cavs win 88-81: LeBron had a great game (35 pts, 10 rebs, 4 asts) and Hughes was useful (18 pts on 6-15 shooting).  No other Cav scored more than 10 points.  On the Spurs side, Tim Duncan was great (25 pts, 12 rebs) but shot 9-19 from the foul line.  Tony Parker was very good and Manu Ginobili (14 pts) was played to a standstill by Hughes.  Outside of the Big Three, no other Spur broke 5 points.

January 2, 2007:  Spurs@Cavs, Cavs win 82-78: This time, the Cavs did not have any superhuman efforts (LeBron had 19 pts, 5 rebs, and 5 asts).  Parker again had a great game (26 pts) and Dunan had nice raw numbers (18 pts, 15 rebs) but shot poorly from the field (6-15).  The key of the game seemed to be Hughes and Manu.  This time, Hughes (18 pts, 5 rebs, 5 asts) thoroughly outplayed Manu (6 pts on 1-8 shooting).

Playoffthoughts

1.    LeBron Pumps It Up: LeBron James 48-point outburst on Thursday was truly amazing to watch and included his scoring 29 of the teams last 30 points.  Throw in some ridiculous dunks and a couple of off-balance three-pointers and you get one of those legendary playoff performances and let’s us all wax poetic about how LeBron has truly arrived.  While I’m certainly on the LeBron bandwagon, it is hard to truly put this accomplishment into context because this series is not over yet.  So let’s see what’s left on the table…

The Pistons did not run their offense very well in the fourth quarter and the overtimes.  In almost every critical situation, Flip Saunders asked Chauncey Billups to create off-the-dribble, which is not his (or any Pistons player’s) forte.  The motion offense is really a Saunders special and some motion might’ve made the difference, especially on Billups’ last shot in the lane where the Cavs were able to sag in the middle and throw off his shot.  Defensively, the Pistons did try to get the ball out of LeBron’s hands by double-teaming him at the top of the key but that open court double proved to be too easy for LeBron to split.  Even with the understanding that LeBron was basically impossible to stop, harder double teams were in order.  The only other Cav in double figures, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, had fouled out.  In fact, the only time that James actually gave up the ball late in the game Anderson Varejao was blocked on a lay up.

Optimists might note that the Pistons have had these types of let down losses before.  They lost a huge double-overtime Game 5 at home in 2003-04 against the Nets.  The Pistons promptly went out and won Game 6 in New Jersey and, ultimately, the title.  More recently, the Pistons lost Game 5 against the Cavs last year and also came back and won the series.  Two caveats should be noted.  In 2003-04, Jason Kidd hurt his knee and couldn’t really play after Game 5 (he went scoreless in Game 7 and had knee surgery that summer).  The Pistons did beat the Cavs at full strength last year but LeBron is a year older (and better) and the Pistons are just a year older.  Clearly, the Cavs are in the driver’s seat and they will milk LeBron as long as they can.  For the Pistons, cause and effect are clear.  In the Pistons two wins, LeBron shot 12-34 (35%) and score 15 ppg since then James is scoring 35 ppg and is shooting 38-73 (52%).  It might not be easy but Detroit has to make those Cav guards shoot, even if the shots are easy.

2.    Kobe Alert: What to do with Kobe Bryant…he correctly realizes that the Lakers are stuck in a rut of mediocrity and now is demanding a trade.  Kobe is apparently peeved that the team is not improving and, secondarily, that the Lakers have implied that he was the reason the team dumped Shaquille O’Neal.  Let’s take these issues individually, starting with the Shaq issue:

Did Kobe Get Shaq Traded?

I don’t have any definitive information but it was clear that Jerry Buss wanted no part of giving an older, heavier Shaq the three year $90 million contract that he wanted and that was before Kobe and Shaq started feuding openly.  That being said, Kobe was a free agent that summer and had the leverage to tell Buss to do whatever he wanted and probably could’ve brokered a deal to keep Shaq if he was so inclined.  So what exactly happened?  Here is Phil Jackson’s version from his biography “The Last Season.”

First, here is Jackson’s version of his exit interview with Kobe after the 2003-04 season:  “The next subject was Shaquille.  ‘Will Shaq’s presence on this team color your decision to come back or not?’  I asked [Kobe].  ‘Yes, it does,’ he said.  ‘I meant what I said the other night after the fame, that the two of you could coexist and play well together,’ I went on.  ‘There’s no doubt about that, ‘ he said.  ‘I’ve done that for eight years with [Shaq], but I’m tired of being a sidekick.'”

Jackson also described management’s thought process in a conversation he had with Buss turning down an executive role with the Lakers:

“Your positions are different than my positions,’ I told [Buss].  ‘If you want me to be an executive, I don’t see how I can endorse them.’  I certainly could not endorse the decision to trade Shaquille.  I acknowledge that the skills and athleticism are declining, and that his market value will never be better, but this is still Shaquille O’Neal, the most dominant big man in the game today, maybe ever.  Nobody can replace him.  Dr. Buss brought up the issue of Shaq’s character, criticizing him for delaying his toe surgery in 2002.  I felt a need to respond, to suggest that on the issue of character, Kobe’s certainly no saint, either.  ‘It’s not that I’m enamored with Kobe’s character,’ he said.  ‘But he’s twenty-six in August,  The seven years ahead are the prime years of his career…..Besides,’ Dr. Buss added, ‘aren’t all superstars like that?’  ‘No,’ I told him, ‘not all of them.’  He said choosing Kobe over Shaq was also to satisfy his constituents, the fans.  ‘I have to serve the people who are loyal to me,’ he said.  ‘My mail runs about 5-1 on Kobe to Shaq.'”

It’s hard to know if Jackson’s recount are 100% accurate and, even if it is, whether Buss was telling the truth about his motivation.  Indeed, I don’t remember Kobe being more popular than Shaq during the 2003-04 season (or since).  Still, it is pretty clear that Kobe, at the very least, blessed Buss’ decision to trade Shaq–if not actively demanded it.  So, for Kobe to claim that he wasn’t part of the Shaq trade is not quite accurate.

Should the Lakers Be Better?

Probably not.  In Shaq’s last season in Los Angeles, the team was built around Kobe, Shaq, Gary Payton, and Karl Malone.   Shaq was traded for Lamar Odom and Caron Butler, which was a serious downgrade.  Still, the market for Shaq was weak based upon his demand that he go to only a few teams and it was certain that the return would be a fraction of Shaq’s value as a player.  Payton was traded for Chris Mihm and Malone retired.  So, it was pretty predictable that the team was going to lag because they were losing an All-Star center and two above-average starters and replacing them with a couple of good perimeter players in Odom and Butler and Chucky Atkins and Mihm.

Mitch Kupchak did make an awful move trading Butler for Kwame Brown and overpaying for Vlad Radmanovic when they already had Brian Cook (essentially the same player but cheaper).  But undoing these moves wouldn’t make the Lakers that much better.  So what could the Lakers have done?  Kobe implied that Carlos Boozer, Baron Davis, Jason Kidd were available and deals weren’t made.  Boozer was only available for Odom.  Boozer would’ve helped but he missed most of 2004-05 and 2005-06 with injuries.  Davis might also help but he, also, had injuries issues–not to mention a problem chucking threes and a potentially onerous contract.  Lastly, trading Andrew Bynum for Kidd would also improve the team but net gain would not have been huge considering Kidd’s age and the fact that Laker’s offense doesn’t put a premium on point guards.

Now What?

So what do we learn from all this?  It seems then that losing Shaq was sure to knock the Lakers to the 40-win plateau and that Kobe was on board with the move.  Bryant has a right to complain that management hasn’t been great but Kobe partially created this mess and the mess was inevitable.  Going forward, I expect the Lakers to trade Bynum for a bigger, older name like Kidd or Jermaine O’Neal.  I’m not sure either move gives the Lakers much but a two-year gamble to make second round of the playoffs unless they get really lucky in the draft and we’ll be back listening to Kobe complain again next summer.

NBA Draft 2007: Early Mock Draft

It’s still a question of Oden or Durant, though Oden seems to have taken the lead. For now I’m going to go with Durant as #1, because he’s a better fit in Portland the way the team is currently set up. It’s more than those 2 though. This looks like it will be the best draft since ’96 and has a chance to be the best ever. This draft is so good, it has the potential to turn the league upside down in a year or two. Considering the NBA’s current group of elite teams are either aging or only marginally elite by historical standards to begin with and that there are several teams in the lottery with decent young talent in need of nothing more than a final piece and some direction I expect this draft to shake up the league no later than 2009. Another thing the lottery may have down is balance the conferences for upcoming decade. The East has added a better haul of young players over the past four drafts. With Oden and Durant headed to the Pacific Northwest, the West has pretty much evened things up, which I see as a good thing for the league.

This mock is based on nothing more than my opinion of this group of prospects at the time of the lottery and team needs. My opinion will change some by draft day, but not too much.

Top 100 Players (Through 1/20/07)

Since I last posted here, I’ve rebuilt my spreadsheet from scratch. Now there are adjustments for the percentage of a players minutes which are versus starters and subs. As all stats are supposed to reflect a player’s 36-minute production in a historically average situation, we now hope to see rates as though they were produced vs the typical 2-to-1 ratio of starters-subs.

Players are ranked by Equivalent Wins Added – eWins, for short. These, too, are equivalent for any team a player finds himself on. Unlike other player-win-shares, players on good or bad teams are credited with eWins based on their own production.

Scoring, Rebounding, and Assist rates are scaled to team/opponent totals, but not directly to W-L records. Points are scaled to a ratio of (TmPts/OppPts), which is raised to a factor (around 1.3). The effect is to raise the Sco rate of a player from a team with a good point-differential.

The eW82 column projects a player’s current eW total to the full season. If he’s missed 1/3 of games so far, he’s projected to miss 1/3 of the remaining games. ‘How good’ a player is might still be considered the last column, labeled ‘T’, which is a weighted sum of the other rates.

EWins are calculated as a multiple of T * minutes.

Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)

rk

eW82

player

tm

G

Min

Eff%

Sco

Reb

Ast

PF

Stl

TO

Blk

3s

T

1

13.7

Nowitzki,Dirk

Dal

40

36

.602

31.9

11.3

3.5

2.1

.7

2.3

.7

39

46.1

2

13.6

Garnett,Kevin

Min

37

39

.539

22.9

13.4

4.0

2.6

1.1

2.5

1.9

6

42.0

3

13.3

James,Lebron

Cle

38

41

.544

27.8

6.7

5.7

1.8

1.4

3.2

.7

51

40.1

4

13.2

Duncan,Tim

SA

40

34

.563

28.3

12.8

3.9

2.8

.8

3.1

2.2

0

45.9

5

11.8

Boozer,Carlos

Uta

39

37

.581

24.2

13.9

3.1

3.1

1.0

2.8

.3

0

39.0

6

11.4

Arenas,Gilbert

Was

38

40

.562

27.4

4.1

5.4

3.1

1.8

3.4

.1

116

35.7

7

10.8

Bryant,Kobe

LAL

37

39

.578

28.6

5.5

5.1

3.0

1.1

3.3

.4

55

37.5

8

10.6

Howard,Dwight

Orl

39

36

.586

21.1

15.1

1.9

3.1

.9

3.7

2.0

1

36.9

9

10.6

Wade,Dwyane

Mia

32

39

.567

27.3

4.7

7.4

2.4

1.9

4.0

1.2

15

40.1

10

10.5

Carter,Vince

NJ

38

39

.549

25.5

6.2

4.0

3.3

1.1

2.4

.3

80

34.6

11

10.3

Marion,Shawn

Pho

38

39

.587

20.4

9.5

1.6

2.5

2.0

1.6

1.3

46

34.2

12

10.3

Nash,Steve

Pho

36

36

.656

24.3

3.4

11.3

1.8

.8

3.9

.1

96

37.7

13

10.2

Kidd,Jason

NJ

38

38

.527

14.8

9.0

9.1

1.8

1.9

2.8

.3

50

34.5

14

10.0

Parker,Tony

SA

39

33

.565

28.4

4.1

6.9

2.0

1.1

3.1

.1

11

38.3

15

9.9

Brand,Elton

LAC

39

38

.588

20.3

9.8

2.2

2.9

.9

2.5

2.0

0

33.4

16

9.9

Mcgrady,Tracy

Hou

32

36

.500

28.7

6.2

7.2

2.1

1.1

3.2

.6

55

41.8

17

9.9

Randolph,Zach

Por

39

35

.533

25.4

12.8

2.1

3.0

.8

3.2

.2

4

36.7

18

9.4

O’Neal,Jermaine

Ind

34

36

.504

20.6

11.5

3.0

3.5

.8

2.9

3.2

0

37.5

19

9.4

Ming,Yao

Hou

27

35

.587

35.4

11.1

2.5

3.6

.4

4.1

2.4

0

47.4

20

9.1

Stoudemire,Amare

Pho

38

30

.633

26.3

11.8

.8

4.6

.9

3.0

1.8

0

37.8

21

9.0

Hamilton,Richard

Det

35

37

.541

25.6

4.4

3.7

3.3

.9

2.1

.3

22

32.8

22

8.8

Butler,Caron

Was

38

40

.557

18.9

7.5

3.4

3.0

1.8

2.6

.3

16

29.1

23

8.8

Williams,Deron

Uta

39

37

.530

18.3

4.3

8.6

3.4

1.2

2.7

.2

43

31.1

24

8.7

Deng,Luol

Chi

40

36

.564

21.6

7.1

2.4

1.9

1.2

1.8

.6

1

31.5

25

8.5

Howard,Josh

Dal

33

35

.550

25.0

8.9

2.3

2.8

1.3

1.8

1.1

50

37.5

26

8.5

Davis,Baron

GS

36

38

.504

19.4

4.3

7.5

2.9

2.0

2.9

.4

51

32.4

27

8.4

Ginobili,Manu

SA

35

28

.588

29.1

7.0

4.9

2.8

2.6

3.1

.5

59

41.9

28

8.4

Okafor,Emeka

Cha

37

36

.524

14.3

12.3

1.2

3.2

.8

1.9

3.1

0

30.9

29

8.3

Iverson,Allen

Den

27

43

.525

25.8

2.3

5.9

1.4

1.8

3.9

.1

23

32.6

30

8.1

Terry,Jason

Dal

41

35

.559

20.6

3.7

6.0

2.4

1.1

1.9

.2

83

30.7

31

7.9

Billups,Chauncey

Det

29

37

.589

21.0

3.6

8.3

2.3

1.2

2.2

.3

57

34.2

32

7.8

Redd,Michael

Mil

33

40

.573

25.2

3.7

1.9

1.4

1.2

2.0

.2

66

30.1

33

7.8

Camby,Marcus

Den

30

33

.496

13.1

14.3

3.2

3.3

1.1

1.9

3.2

0

35.2

34

7.7

Gordon,Ben

Chi

40

31

.572

28.5

3.1

3.9

3.6

.8

3.4

.2

70

32.4

35

7.6

Anthony,Carmelo

Den

22

37

.559

32.6

5.7

3.8

2.9

1.5

3.8

.4

13

39.8

36

7.6

Jamison,Antawn

Was

38

39

.545

16.8

7.9

1.6

2.7

1.1

1.3

.7

78

26.9

37

7.6

Okur,Mehmet

Uta

39

33

.573

20.1

9.9

2.2

4.2

.5

2.2

.6

62

30.3

38

7.5

Martin,Kevin

Sac

35

36

.635

22.1

5.0

2.2

2.4

1.3

1.9

.1

59

28.7

39

7.5

Johnson,Joe

Atl

32

41

.563

22.7

3.8

3.6

1.9

1.1

3.0

.1

73

28.1

40

7.3

Hinrich,Kirk

Chi

38

35

.537

18.9

3.5

6.8

3.5

1.3

2.4

.4

61

29.4

41

7.1

Prince,Tayshaun

Det

37

38

.535

16.8

6.0

3.1

1.4

.5

1.4

.7

49

26.4

42

7.1

Bibby,Mike

Sac

36

37

.499

17.8

4.0

5.6

1.9

1.2

2.6

.1

57

26.7

43

7.0

Ilgauskas,Zydrun

Cle

38

28

.507

18.3

12.5

1.8

4.4

.9

2.7

1.9

0

32.5

44

7.0

Miller,Mike

Mem

40

39

.600

16.0

6.3

4.0

2.1

.9

2.3

.3

112

25.4

45

7.0

Alston,Rafer

Hou

40

37

.475

16.4

3.8

5.7

2.6

1.5

2.3

.2

91

26.3

46

7.0

Bosh,Chris

Tor

28

37

.547

22.2

11.7

2.1

2.3

.5

3.1

1.3

6

34.3

47

6.9

Pierce,Paul

Bos

24

38

.585

26.4

7.6

4.1

2.5

.9

3.7

.4

61

35.2

48

6.9

Nocioni,Andres

Chi

39

29

.583

24.4

8.6

1.7

4.3

.8

2.5

.5

66

32.2

49

6.9

Paul,Chris

NO

27

37

.530

18.7

4.6

8.7

2.2

1.8

3.1

.0

9

32.5

50

6.8

Ford,T.J.

Tor

37

32

.509

18.8

4.4

8.8

2.9

1.4

3.9

.1

11

30.6

51

6.7

Allen,Ray

Sea

30

41

.562

22.7

4.1

3.3

1.8

1.3

2.3

.2

82

29.5

52

6.7

Iguodala,Andre

Phi

39

39

.559

14.7

5.5

4.3

2.7

2.0

2.8

.3

25

24.4

53

6.6

Curry,Eddy

NY

40

34

.584

21.3

9.2

.8

3.8

.4

3.6

.6

0

26.8

54

6.6

Tinsley,Jamaal

Ind

39

31

.456

15.5

4.6

7.9

3.2

1.9

3.1

.5

35

28.7

55

6.5

Wallace,Rasheed

Det

35

34

.489

13.9

10.1

1.7

3.5

.9

1.5

1.9

45

27.7

56

6.5

Miller,Andre

Phi

37

36

.496

12.7

4.9

8.4

2.5

1.5

2.8

.2

5

26.6

57

6.4

Davis,Ricky

Min

37

37

.528

16.8

4.2

4.4

2.4

1.1

2.3

.2

35

24.6

58

6.3

Williams,Mo

Mil

33

35

.522

17.7

5.8

5.8

2.9

1.2

2.9

.1

37

28.0

59

6.3

Artest,Ron

Sac

30

36

.496

16.4

6.8

3.0

2.9

2.3

1.9

.7

30

28.2

60

6.2

Gooden,Drew

Cle

36

28

.530

18.3

13.3

1.0

4.2

1.0

2.1

.7

1

31.2

61

6.1

Bogut,Andrew

Mil

38

33

.577

14.1

10.8

3.2

3.7

.9

2.8

.6

1

26.2

62

6.1

Wallace,Ben

Chi

38

34

.446

7.8

11.7

2.5

2.3

1.8

1.6

2.2

0

26.2

63

6.1

Lee,David

NY

40

30

.639

12.7

13.9

1.9

3.4

1.1

1.8

.5

0

27.7

64

6.0

Barbosa,Leandro

Pho

36

31

.575

21.1

2.9

4.5

3.0

1.3

2.2

.2

69

28.2

65

5.8

Lewis,Rashard

Sea

27

38

.608

20.7

7.0

2.1

2.2

1.3

2.0

.6

62

29.9

66

5.8

Walton,Luke

LAL

40

34

.560

14.1

6.0

4.6

2.2

1.2

2.2

.5

28

24.8

67

5.8

Smith,Josh

Atl

28

37

.501

12.9

8.6

3.3

3.0

1.6

2.9

2.7

20

27.8

68

5.8

Felton,Raymond

Cha

36

38

.472

12.7

3.6

7.0

2.3

1.4

3.0

.2

49

23.0

69

5.8

Biedrins,Andris

GS

40

29

.610

12.5

11.6

1.3

4.9

.9

2.0

2.5

0

27.1

70

5.6

Dalembert,Samuel

Phi

39

29

.605

13.1

11.7

.8

4.9

1.0

2.3

2.7

0

27.2

71

5.5

Wilcox,Chris

Sea

40

32

.549

14.6

9.7

1.3

3.7

1.1

1.8

.5

0

24.8

72

5.5

Hill,Grant

Orl

33

31

.568

20.8

5.7

3.2

2.7

1.4

3.0

.5

2

28.6

73

5.5

Nelson,Jameer

Orl

35

29

.529

19.7

4.4

5.4

3.6

1.4

2.9

.1

29

28.5

74

5.5

Blount,Mark

Min

37

32

.572

16.8

8.7

.9

3.6

.7

2.5

1.1

4

24.9

75

5.5

Crawford,Jamal

NY

40

37

.480

15.7

3.6

4.2

2.0

1.1

2.6

.2

64

22.4

76

5.4

Ridnour,Luke

Sea

40

33

.530

15.2

3.4

6.1

3.2

1.5

3.0

.3

34

24.1

77

5.4

Marbury,Stephon

NY

40

36

.510

14.5

3.2

5.4

2.8

1.0

2.4

.2

47

22.4

78

5.4

Diaw,Boris

Pho

38

32

.556

13.1

5.7

6.0

3.0

.5

2.6

.8

6

24.2

79

5.4

Battier,Shane

Hou

40

38

.584

12.5

4.7

2.7

2.4

1.2

1.0

.7

81

21.7

80

5.3

Harris,Devin

Dal

40

27

.553

18.5

3.8

5.8

4.4

1.7

3.0

.4

7

27.5

81

5.3

Patterson,Ruben

Mil

37

31

.557

16.1

6.5

3.5

3.4

1.3

2.6

.4

1

25.1

82

5.3

Jefferson,Al

Bos

30

30

.520

15.6

13.4

1.1

4.4

.4

2.5

1.7

0

29.0

83

5.3

Haslem,Udonis

Mia

38

33

.527

12.1

10.8

1.8

3.7

.8

1.6

.3

0

23.5

84

5.2

Dampier,Erick

Dal

41

26

.627

13.8

13.6

.7

4.7

.4

2.2

1.8

0

27.5

85

5.2

Harrington,Al

Ind

36

34

.532

18.2

7.4

1.6

3.6

.8

2.8

.3

54

24.2

86

5.1

Mourning,Alonzo

Mia

38

24

.590

16.0

9.9

.3

5.2

.3

3.1

4.6

0

28.8

87

5.0

Kirilenko,Andrei

Uta

34

32

.543

11.3

7.3

4.1

3.4

1.2

2.6

2.5

12

25.3

88

4.8

Maggette,Corey

LAC

35

28

.543

19.7

8.1

2.2

3.9

.9

3.0

.2

5

26.9

89

4.8

Krstic,Nenad

NJ

26

33

.555

19.8

8.5

2.0

3.9

.4

2.3

1.1

0

29.0

90

4.8

James,Mike

Min

37

29

.525

16.5

3.3

5.6

3.1

1.0

2.7

.1

37

24.2

91

4.8

Pachulia,Zaza

Atl

33

29

.539

15.9

9.2

2.1

4.6

1.4

3.0

.6

0

25.3

92

4.8

Bell,Raja

Pho

35

38

.573

16.0

3.4

2.3

3.1

.6

1.1

.3

96

21.3

93

4.7

Jefferson,Richard

NJ

32

37

.540

16.9

5.1

2.7

2.4

.7

2.3

.2

23

22.8

94

4.7

Jackson,Stephen

Ind

37

32

.518

16.9

3.1

3.6

2.7

1.0

2.6

.6

41

22.9

95

4.7

Jack,Jarrett

Por

37

35

.549

13.3

3.1

5.9

2.9

1.3

2.5

.1

23

21.9

96

4.7

Chandler,Tyson

NO

36

32

.584

7.3

13.7

.8

4.0

.7

1.7

1.8

0

22.5

97

4.6

Head,Luther

Hou

40

29

.577

16.3

4.7

3.1

2.3

1.3

2.2

.1

93

23.4

98

4.6

Livingston,Shaun

LAC

38

31

.488

11.6

4.5

6.4

3.0

1.0

2.6

.7

4

22.7

99

4.5

Atkins,Chucky

Mem

40

27

.552

16.5

2.8

5.2

2.3

.9

2.0

.1

53

24.0

100

4.5

Boykins,Earl

Mil

34

30

.531

17.8

2.5

4.7

1.3

1.1

2.2

.1

47

24.6

 

GM Report: Jeff Bower

Overview

Generally when we evaluate GMs, there is a concrete body of work to evaluate.  In the case of Jeff Bower, there is really only the 2005-06 season to review.  A review of Bower’s rise to GM, does reveal how one might rise up the ladder to an executive position on an NBA team.  Bower started his career in the early 1980s as an assistant coach at Penn State (1983-1986) and then over as an assistant at Marist (1986-1995).  The Hornets hired Bower as a scout in 1995, a position he held until they needed him to fill in as an assistant coach when Dave Cowens resigned in the middle of the 1998-99 season.

Bower spent the next few years bouncing back-and-froth between assistant coach and the front office as assistant GM.  Long-time GM Bob Bass retired after the 2003-04 season and was replaced with Allen Bristow, who had coached the team for 1991-92 through 1995-96, before being fired.  Bristow was later re-hired as an assistant GM and replaced Bass as GM.  All this shuffling was emblematic of the Hornets’ ownership under George Shinn, who managed to piss off the Charlotte market that had embraced the team and also ran the team to New Orleans, which was a very specious market for pro hoops even before the terrible flooding of 2005.

In keeping with the theme of capriciousness, Bristow lasted through the 2004-05 season and then he resigned citing health issues and Bower stepped in.  It was a nice way for Bower to get the top, though the Hornets might not be the ideal franchise to run considering that Bower took over a rebuilding team, an uncertain future because of the floods in New Orleans and, even before that, the teams not meeting its attendance quotas, and dealing with Shinn. 

Quick Thoughts

1.    Some Random Musings:   It’s been pretty clear that the Eastern Conference is weak and plenty has been written about this fact.  Here are a couple more facts that you might not have noticed:

 

-There are only five teams in the east that have outscored their opponents for the season.  The last time that happened was the Eastern Conference in 2003-04 (when the Pistons actually won it all).

 

-The worst scoring team in the NBA, so far, is the Hornets.  They average 89.8 ppg, the only team below the 90 ppg mark.  After last night’s win, the team is 207 since Chris Paul went down.  They are the type of team that could actually use an inefficient, high volume chucker.  The team is relying heavily on Jannero Pargo, who can’t shoot (.363 FG%).

 

-As bad as the Atlantic is, the Nets are still the “class” of the division.  They have a point differential of -0.7 ppg and the Celts are second at -1.8 ppg.  If Nets had a home record near what they’ve done during the Jason Kidd Era, they’d be way ahead.  Here is the Nets season-by-season home records in that span

 

   Year      Home W-L

2005-06:        29-12

2004-05:        24-17

2003-04:        28-13

2002-03:        33-8

2001-02:        33-8

 

Over that same span, the team has never been above .500 on the road.  This year the Nets are 11-10 at home and 4-9 on the road.  I have to imagine the team can reestablish a semblance of it’s respectable home court edge.  Incidentally, trading Vince Carter really makes no sense.  VC may be a bit casual on the court but he’s still very good and you won’t get much but cap relief for him.  With Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson, sans Carter, they will contend for the division by accident, so, they can’t tank it for a good draft pick even if they wanted to.  They may as well ride this out and hope they can get a cheap division title.

 

-The east has only one team with a winning record on the road, Detroit at 11-7.  Detroit was the only good road team last year, though the Heat did squeak out a 21-20 record.  The last time a conference had only one team with a winning road record was in 2002-03 when the middling Sixers (48-34) were 23-18 on the road.  That Sixer team lost to the Pistons in the second round of the playoffs 4-2 and lost all three of its road games.

 

-The best teams by point differential by conference are the good old Spurs at +8.7 ppg and the Bulls at +4.3 ppg.  The Spurs are like old reliable…they’ve led the NBA in this category in every year since 2003-04.  The Bulls point differential, if it holds up, is the lowest differential to lead a conference since the 2001-02 Nets at +4.2 ppg.

 

2.    AI and Melo:    We’ve already examined how Iverson’s shots might be affected by playing in Denver.  I’d thought it might be interesting to see how trades affected other high scorers in the past.  Here’s a list of players who were scoring big and found themselves traded shortly thereafter.  We’ll compare the year before with the year after, or in some cases the mid-season split:

 

Player Year Team MPG PPG FGM/PG FGA/PG FG% FTM/PG FTA/PG PER
A. Dantley 1986-87 Utah 36.1 29.8 10.8 19.1 0.563 8.3 10.5 24.6
A. Dantley 1987-88 Detroit 33.8 21.5 7.4 13.9 0.534 6.7 8.2 18.6
W. Chamberlain 1964-65 Golden St. 45.9 38.9 16.7 33.6 0.499 5.5 13.2 29.8
W. Chamberlain 1964-65 Philadelphia 44.5 30.1 12.2 23.1 0.528 5.7 10.9 27.3
T. McGrady 2003-04 Orlando 39.9 28.1 9.7 23.4 0.417 5.9 7.5 25.3
T. McGrady 2004-05 Houston 40.8 25.7 9.2 21.3 0.431 5.5 7.1 22.9
B. McAdoo 1976-77 Buffalo 38.4 23.7 9.1 20.1 0.455 5.5 7.9 19.9
B. McAdoo 1976-77 New York 39.1 26.7 10.7 20.1 0.534 5.2 6.9 22.6
O. Robertson 1969-70 Cincinnati 41.5 25.3 9.4 18.4 0.511 6.6 8.1 21.5
O. Robertson 1970-71 Milwaukee 39.4 19.4 7.3 14.7 0.496 4.8 5.6 19.6
W. Free 1979-80 San Diego 38.1 30.2 10.8 22.9 0.474 8.4 11.2 22.7
W. Free 1980-81 Golden St. 36.5 24.1 7.9 17.8 0.446 8.1 10.1 19.5
E. Hayes 1971-72 Houston 42.2 25.2 10.1 23.4 0.434 4.9 7.5 19.4
E. Hayes 1972-73 Baltimore 41.3 21.2 8.8 19.8 0.444 3.6 5.4 17.5

 

Most of the time, the big scorers were going to better teams and, predictably, stats dropped.  McAdoo seemed to be a special case because he was going to a bad team and he was very unhappy in Buffalo at that point.  Free also didn’t go to a much better team but he saw a drop as well.  What have we learned?  The price for going to contention is usually points.  Indeed, even without Melo and playing for a high scoring team, AI’s numbers are down with Denver (from 31.2 ppg with Philly to 26.0 ppg with Denver) and (surprise!) his field goal percentage is up too (from .413% to .430%).  With Anthony’s imminent return, we should see even more drop for Iverson.