Hoops Analyst

These are the two best prospects in this draft. Not much else to say. It is getting late in the process and the draft tonight should be good entertainment. If what I’m reading is correct and these two are the top 2 selections, that will be one thing the league gets right. 

John Wall, Kentucky: The consensus top pick since last summer. Wall has held onto that spot all year and his status as top dog has never really been in question, at least if what I’ve read is correct. Since he is considered the best, we should line him up against the best of all time. Here are the best PGs to come into the league in recent years in their freshmen seasons: 

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There haven’t been too many center classes this deep or with as many intriguing prospects. The 2010 class offers three compelling freshmen in Cousins, Orton and Whiteside, and a solid junior in Aldrich at the top. Then there are the intriguing and multi-talented Ekpe Udoh and Greg Monroe, along with talented projects Larry Sanders, Tiny Gallon and Solomon Alabi. If things break right, this could become a pretty darn good group. There is also a deeper than normal group of seniors that would be sort of a 3^rd tier of centers. One of more of these players is capable of putting together a career similar to that of Eric Riley, Jerome James or Jake Voskuhl. This makes the 2010 center class by far the most intriguing group in this draft. What’s most interesting is this could go down as one of the all-time great center classes or one of the most disappointing. There are so many players who could go either way. I already covered Whiteside, Orton, Udoh and Monroe. I decided not to cover the foreign players. I mention that here, because most, if not all, the good ones are centers. Time is getting tight and that just isn’t an area of expertise for me. I perused the stats of the main ones and there isn’t much there that is wildly impressive. Here are the remaining NCAA centers listed in order of preference:

DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky: Cousins scored and rebounded at a very high rate. With pace adjustments, he was at 24.5 P40 and 15.9 R40, which placed him among the best freshmen centers ever. These freshmen centers topped 30 combined points and rebounds per 40 minutes while playing at least 500 minutes:

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A couple of players who are reportedly on the rise as the pre-draft analysis winds down. The two players have some similarities, but are hardly mirror images. The similarities are both are good passing big men with a decent outside shot. Both are somewhere between a forward and a center. Neither is a very impressive scorer in either frequency or efficiency. Both are decent enough rebounders. Udoh is more of a shot blocker, while Monroe is a good all around defender. Neither looks like a great prospect, but both appear to be headed into the top 10 if you believe the mocks.

Greg Monroe, Georgetown: In the NBA it has always been a good thing for a big man to pass. Big guys who are extraordinary passers for their position have a habit of winning championships. Being a great passer in college just doesn’t seem to mean all that much for a big guy though. It is better for a big guy to do the things big guys do. Big guys need to show they can rebound, block shots and score at an efficient rate. If they can pass that is wonderful, but not really consequential to their chances. I mention this to start, because passing is one of Monroe’s best skills. Here are college sophs who posted a high A40 like Monroe did this year:

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I like analyzing the PFs. They’re a fairly easy bunch to look at. Basically they need to meet the following benchmarks:

• Hit .580 on 2-point shots and score 20.0 P40. In both cases, the higher the better. The best have typically been over .600 and pushed 25.0 P40 as they got older. For freshmen some leeway is given.
• At least 10.0 R40, preferably higher. The best have been at least 12.0. Again the higher the better here.
• Combined 3.5 steals and blocks per 40 minutes, or SB40. Blocks are more important, but if combining blocks and steals is what it takes to get a player to 3.5, that has been good enough. Players who fall way below this level need to develop an outside shot to stick.
• An A/TO that is at least 0.3. This one doesn’t need to be great, just not disastrous.

The 2010 group is pretty intriguing. Favors stands above the crowd and Davis looks like a solid pro. After that there just isn’t much, unless you want to count an impressive group of combo forwards or some of the smaller centers as PFs. Adding them makes the group a pretty impressive bunch. This is just the pure PFs. Here are the numbers:

The job of the combo forward or, more accurately the small PF, is to give his team a different look. The CF usually comes in to play PF when the team needs to go smaller and quicker. But they can also be used at SF, if a team needs to go bigger. The nature of the position almost guarantees that this player is going to come off the bench. Because of that this group is often lacking in star power. That isn’t the case this year, as Aminu, Patterson and Babbitt all appear to be on the rise as the draft approaches.

• Offensive skills are a given just like for every position. The player must approach 20 P40 with good efficiency. It’s also important to have a varied offensive game, meaning a decent outside shot. Part of the appeal of such players is the outside shot that can pull the opposing PF to the perimeter and clear space underneath.
• Rebounding and defense. The prospect has to be at least adequate here and the better he is, obviously the better prospect he becomes. I think the important thing here is that opposing PFs won’t kill this guy on the boards or offensively when he comes in. For the purpose of this I’ll say the closer he is to 10.0 R40 and 2.5 SB40, the better. As always, the higher the number, so much the better.
• As far as passing and turnovers, the main thing is not to be terrible. Since this is typically a bench position, being a low-mistake player is pretty important. It’s not necessary to be a great passer, but the prospect should show he’s both willing and somewhat able to pass the ball. As with every position, a high rate of turnovers or a low A/TO is a very bad sign.

I ended up going with James as the top guy, but I could see buying into the potential of Aminu. I just see James as more of a sure thing and I doubt the high end payoff Aminu offers is worth the gamble.

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